I'm sorry....10-6, 9-7

[Elemas]

Putting this out here first...I'm a naysayer. Additionally, I'm a data scientist. Numbers are important to me and usually form the basis of any/all analysis from my perspective.

Reading comments like "We'll be ok" after squeaking by the Bengals...statements like "a win is a win" after games like the Rams and Niners have been mind-boggling to me.

Yet, the Hawks are 9-2 while still being competitive in those two losses.

I've never been the fair weather Hawks fan. Pessimistic? Yes...and in high doses.

But, it's not the way to look at it. You can't enjoy the ride with the glass is half empty mentality. Especially in the NFL.

To all of you it'll be ok'ers, calm downers, a win is a win type folks, I salute you. You're right and have been all along.

This team is taking the division and conference. Then they're going to get sweet revenge on the Ravens in the SB.

Go Hawks!

 

[chris98251]

Putting this out here first...I'm a naysayer. Additionally, I'm a data scientist. Numbers are important to me and usually form the basis of any/all analysis from my perspective.

Reading comments like "We'll be ok" after squeaking by the Bengals...statements like "a win is a win" after games like the Rams and Niners have been mind-boggling to me.

Yet, the Hawks are 9-2 while still being competitive in those two losses.

I've never been the fair weather Hawks fan. Pessimistic? Yes...and in high doses.

But, it's not the way to look at it. You can't enjoy the ride with the glass is half empty mentality. Especially in the NFL.

To all of you it'll be ok'ers, calm downers, a win is a win type folks, I salute you. You're right and have been all along.

This team is taking the division and conference. Then they're going to get sweet revenge on the Ravens in the SB.

Go Hawks!

Football is a game where Stats can tell a story but are not the Bible, how many games do you win giving up more yards, having less offensive totals ? A lot, it's anomalies like this that make Football one of the things that the cliché's on any given Sunday mean something.

The one Stat that tells all is final score.

So many aspects of games can skew numbers except the final one.

 

[LastRideOut]

You had me until you said the Seahawks are taking the division and conference. I do like your optimism, I do, but I'm also a realist.

I think division is likely if we beat SF but drop one between now and before the SF game. We lose one between now and the SNF SF game, we are not winning the conference. I think SF wins out too. I think the #1 seed will come down to SNF game IF we win out.

If both SF and Seattle win out until week 17, wow, what a game that SNF SF game is going to be.

 

[Elemas]

You had me until you said the Seahawks are taking the division and conference. I do like your optimism, I do, but I'm also a realist.

I think division is likely if we beat SF but drop one between now and before the SF game. We lose one between now and the SNF SF game, we are not winning the conference. I think SF wins out too. I think the #1 seed will come down to SNF game IF we win out.

If both SF and Seattle win out until week 17, wow, what a game that SNF SF game is going to be.

I understand what you're saying. Our strength of schedule is pretty rough in these remaining games. But, nothing else makes sense to me other than their current trajectory.

Besides the division, I'm not referring to seed. I think this team beats the SFs, NO's, Vikings etc...for no other reason than a bunch of reasons that do not make sense. Pete ball, luck, timing....etc

 

[sutz]

Unlike baseball, there are not enough games in a season, even at 16, for statistics to be know all and be all in football.

Sure, there is correlation and strength in the stats and in general they point you in the right direction, but it still is any given Sunday in football. If you have a good day you can overcome almost anything and if you have a bad day you can look like Sammamish High School. SB 48 proved that. It seemed like everything we did worked and Denver never got out of their own way. The good to great teams have more good days than bad. That's how it works.

I've always been a "glass half full" type and never give up on a season until we are mathematically eliminated. Overall, I like our chances going forward. We are already virtually guaranteed a playoff spot and have a decent chance of passing SF for the Division Crown, and if we go into the playoffs on a roll, anything can happen.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Putting this out here first...I'm a naysayer. Additionally, I'm a data scientist. Numbers are important to me and usually form the basis of any/all analysis from my perspective.

Reading comments like "We'll be ok" after squeaking by the Bengals...statements like "a win is a win" after games like the Rams and Niners have been mind-boggling to me.

Yet, the Hawks are 9-2 while still being competitive in those two losses.

I've never been the fair weather Hawks fan. Pessimistic? Yes...and in high doses.

But, it's not the way to look at it. You can't enjoy the ride with the glass is half empty mentality. Especially in the NFL.

To all of you it'll be ok'ers, calm downers, a win is a win type folks, I salute you. You're right and have been all along.

This team is taking the division and conference. Then they're going to get sweet revenge on the Ravens in the SB.

Go Hawks!

So they get credit for when that mentality turns out to be accurate; does that mean they get blame when they do it (which they do) in the years that it doesn't?

Personally, I don't care for the glass being half full OR half empty. Rather, I look at the glass as being at 50% capacity...a cold, hard, fact devoid of emotion as much as possible.

 

[JustTheTip]

Putting this out here first...I'm a naysayer. Additionally, I'm a data scientist. Numbers are important to me and usually form the basis of any/all analysis from my perspective.

Reading comments like "We'll be ok" after squeaking by the Bengals...statements like "a win is a win" after games like the Rams and Niners have been mind-boggling to me.

Yet, the Hawks are 9-2 while still being competitive in those two losses.

I've never been the fair weather Hawks fan. Pessimistic? Yes...and in high doses.

But, it's not the way to look at it. You can't enjoy the ride with the glass is half empty mentality. Especially in the NFL.

To all of you it'll be ok'ers, calm downers, a win is a win type folks, I salute you. You're right and have been all along.

This team is taking the division and conference. Then they're going to get sweet revenge on the Ravens in the SB.

Go Hawks!

So they get credit for when that mentality turns out to be accurate; does that mean they get blame when they do it (which they do) in the years that it doesn't?

Personally, I don't care for the glass being half full OR half empty. Rather, I look at the glass as being at 50% capacity...a cold, hard, fact devoid of emotion as much as possible.

You are wrong, the glass is always completely full.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

I'm pretty sure John Schneider just refilled the glass.

 

[sprhawk73]

We'll with SF dropping to the Ravens the time is now. We can take the division and I too want to see the glass full but I've been a Seahawks fan since the beginning and seeing your hopes dashed year after year for 30 some years tends to make one hope for the best but not lose it all over disappointment.

That is why the infamous interception doesn't hurt so much because we won a superbowl. The dream was achieved and after waiting so long... I'm good. Another suberbowl would be beyond awesome but I'm a Seahawk come what may.

 

[olyfan63]

I'm pretty sure John Schneider just refilled the glass.

Yes, John Schneider refilled the glass with... in order of importance (my opinion)...
* Jadaveon Clowney
* Quandre Diggs
* Jacob Hollister
* Josh Gordon

We don't win at 49ers without ALL these acquisitions. Including Gordon with 2 key first down catches on 3rd down.
There is, however, nothing that says we win the division or the #1 seed. There are at least 3 highly loseable games on the schedule, and the other 2 are not gimmes. We have to take care of business in each game.

Other glass refills happened by having backups ready to go, rookies developing into real NFL players, and injured players coming back. Some of those, and some wildcards going forward:

* C Joey Hunt, at C, for an injured Britt
* G/C Ethan Pocic, at C/G, coming back from IR
* RB Penny, will he continue to show his development?
* ER SackQuem Griffin, will he provide the pressure from the edge, ongoing?
* TE Tyrone Swoopes, will he be a wildcard at TE?
* SS Marquise Blair
* Josh Gordon, can he stay on the field, and will he develop increasing chemistry with Russell?
* DK Metcalf, will he get past enouth of his rookie issues to make the key plays?
* CJ Prosise, will he be a one-game playoff wonder if we need him to?
* Others I have limited info on, G Phil Haynes, can he come off IR and is he ready to play?

If this doesn't give enough of a sense of randomness of this whole deal...
What key injuries will other teams have, that make a Hawks win more likely?
Will we be fortunate enough to have limited injuries and have effective replacements for those we lose?

This team has already done such remarkable things this season, I just have this hunch there is more magic yet to come.

 

[bmorepunk]

Putting this out here first...I'm a naysayer. Additionally, I'm a data scientist. Numbers are important to me and usually form the basis of any/all analysis from my perspective.

What "numbers" are you talking about in this context?

What is your academic background? Math and stats degrees?

 

[Seahawkfan80]

There is a missing stat there. 35-25.

35 minutes time of possession. This means that we have five 7 minute drives chewing up clock and take the game down to its simplest form. Ball control. If we have the ball, they dont. If we score on the 5 drives, we have from 15 to 35 points respectably.

25 mins time of possesion for the other team means our teams defense gets valuable rest time to recuperate and be ready for battle when we score.

Russell Wilson mentioned on a post game interview that we were on time/on schedule. So that to me means they were on a schedule of time management. The points can be skewed one way or another as the game wears on but it pretty much plays out. The other thing being that near the end of the game, should all other parts of running the ball and select passing play out, the only thing left is the V formation. Owning the score being above the other team and running out the clock in trash time is a great thing. If we have the ball in a tie situation, running the ball, controlling the ball, and kicking the field goal at the last seconds when the other team is thrashed does not hurt.

We just hope that the 35/25 is on our side, not the other team's.

 

[TwistedHusky]

A few things that made a huge difference for us:

1 - We played 4 teams playing their backup QB. That is almost unheard of in a single year. And to think it did not skew the record is difficult. We likely added 1-2 wins this year due to this. Injuries happen but 4 starters out is very fortunate when each starter was the opposing QB.

2 - We are a very different defense today vs the start of this year. The Diggs acquisition filled massive holes. Before that, we had no choice but to score 28 to win a game. Even then it might not have been enough. Projecting our record at the start of the year vs now was going to be off because our defense is no longer as horrific as it was.

Ultimately, this year has to be considered a success no matter how it shakes out. There was no way this roster should have put together the year we had. I don't expect a division title. But if we get past the wildcard and just play a competitive game in the playoffs (and maybe even win one!) - we have to consider this the best season we have had in half a decade.

The Vikings worry me and so do the Rams, but realistically we are doing better than we had any right to expect.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Putting this out here first...I'm a naysayer. Additionally, I'm a data scientist. Numbers are important to me and usually form the basis of any/all analysis from my perspective.

Reading comments like "We'll be ok" after squeaking by the Bengals...statements like "a win is a win" after games like the Rams and Niners have been mind-boggling to me.

Yet, the Hawks are 9-2 while still being competitive in those two losses.

I've never been the fair weather Hawks fan. Pessimistic? Yes...and in high doses.

But, it's not the way to look at it. You can't enjoy the ride with the glass is half empty mentality. Especially in the NFL.

To all of you it'll be ok'ers, calm downers, a win is a win type folks, I salute you. You're right and have been all along.

This team is taking the division and conference. Then they're going to get sweet revenge on the Ravens in the SB.

Go Hawks!

ImTheScientist and I like your style.

 

[Hawkpower]

A few things that made a huge difference for us:

1 - We played 4 teams playing their backup QB. That is almost unheard of in a single year. And to think it did not skew the record is difficult. We likely added 1-2 wins this year due to this. Injuries happen but 4 starters out is very fortunate when each starter was the opposing QB.

2 - We are a very different defense today vs the start of this year. The Diggs acquisition filled massive holes. Before that, we had no choice but to score 28 to win a game. Even then it might not have been enough. Projecting our record at the start of the year vs now was going to be off because our defense is no longer as horrific as it was.

Ultimately, this year has to be considered a success no matter how it shakes out. There was no way this roster should have put together the year we had. I don't expect a division title. But if we get past the wildcard and just play a competitive game in the playoffs (and maybe even win one!) - we have to consider this the best season we have had in half a decade.

The Vikings worry me and so do the Rams, but realistically we are doing better than we had any right to expect.

Wasnt this team 10-6 last year? If we end up 11-5 or 12-4 ish that seems pretty on par. Most of us pegged this team as playoff worthy before the year so an 11-5 type finish is where we expected, no?

Now if we go crazy and end up 14-2? Sure I'll buy the theory that we achieved beyond our wildest dreams, but being in the playoff hunt this year was always expected, at least to most here.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Much improved play of the defense is what's turned the corner for me.

First 5-6 games I thought we were stuck in the same 10-6 type season and losing on the road as a WC again. What I've seen the past two games with Diggs at FS is we're back to playing cover 3 with McDougald down in the box and Pete having faith in our corners to press cover with Diggs back deep like Earl.

It's made all the difference, and made all the difference in me thinking we're on track for a WC loss on the road, to now a serious SB contender.

 

[Elemas]

Putting this out here first...I'm a naysayer. Additionally, I'm a data scientist. Numbers are important to me and usually form the basis of any/all analysis from my perspective.

What "numbers" are you talking about in this context?

What is your academic background? Math and stats degrees?

PHD, Computational Statistics. My BS is in Comp Sci but I pursued an MS in Data Analytics. My MS was the pilot program at my university and didn't peak my interest as much as the "core" principles did. Stats have always made more sense to me than the math that comprised most of my CS degree. In my line of work now, Data Scientist for the Air Force Research Laboratory, I still use quite a bit of linear algebra but it's always coupled with statistics.

Numbers I'm referring to are primarily referring to are those that are most common...margin of victory, pass rush/pressure, yards allowed vs. X....etc...nothing intricate.

Someone mentioned the number of games in a regular season. 16 isn't nearly enough. Even if you approached a problem set using historical data (ok, give me 3 seasons...48 games...), any prediction, comparison, etc is based on way too many dynamics to form a basis without the caveat that the results are only approximations.

With something as high profile as the NFL, if there were "good" answers, they would've certainly been ID'd at this point. Think Vegas and when spreads are determined.

Anyways, to sum it up....I'm enjoying the ride and wins a lot more by saying "we're 9-2" rather than saying "we only beat the Niners because Kittle and Zuerlien were out". Just a different mental approach that many people have displayed in their comments on this board. The why's don't matter...just the result.

 

[Fade]

In the regular season the team with the better QB usually wins.

Playoffs it's about defense and running game. Because all the teams usually have a good QB.

 

[bmorepunk]

Putting this out here first...I'm a naysayer. Additionally, I'm a data scientist. Numbers are important to me and usually form the basis of any/all analysis from my perspective.

What "numbers" are you talking about in this context?

What is your academic background? Math and stats degrees?

PHD, Computational Statistics. My BS is in Comp Sci but I pursued an MS in Data Analytics. My MS was the pilot program at my university and didn't peak my interest as much as the "core" principles did. Stats have always made more sense to me than the math that comprised most of my CS degree. In my line of work now, Data Scientist for the Air Force Research Laboratory, I still use quite a bit of linear algebra but it's always coupled with statistics.

Numbers I'm referring to are primarily referring to are those that are most common...margin of victory, pass rush/pressure, yards allowed vs. X....etc...nothing intricate.

Someone mentioned the number of games in a regular season. 16 isn't nearly enough. Even if you approached a problem set using historical data (ok, give me 3 seasons...48 games...), any prediction, comparison, etc is based on way too many dynamics to form a basis without the caveat that the results are only approximations.

With something as high profile as the NFL, if there were "good" answers, they would've certainly been ID'd at this point. Think Vegas and when spreads are determined.

Anyways, to sum it up....I'm enjoying the ride and wins a lot more by saying "we're 9-2" rather than saying "we only beat the Niners because Kittle and Zuerlien were out". Just a different mental approach that many people have displayed in their comments on this board. The why's don't matter...just the result.

Thanks for the background; have you been tracking FiveThirtyEight's ELO? It's fun to run through their methodology section.

I think if you look at Sgt's big change the last couple of games (and I'm fully on board) is that the defense has played much better. If they can keep this up, it will have a marked improvement on the Seahawks' numbers (particularly points allowed) by the end of the season. That would make them look at lot better to any kind of traditional calculation/model on that front.

Hopefully that helps the point differential improves by the end of the season; in the Super Bowl year they were pushing +11.5/game. This season it has been +2.6/game so far. But when the defense is giving up nearly 24 PPG to this point it's hard to have a really good differential.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

In the regular season the team with the better QB usually wins.

Playoffs it's about defense and running game. Because all the teams usually have a good QB.

If the Hawk's D continues to play like they've played the past three games, we'll have all three...........and with SF's loss yesterday we now have a mulligan to take a loss before playing them again the last game of the season to win the division.