RUSSEL, THE ENIGMA

[keasley45]

I posted this in the thread about whether we are really that good through the air, but am pulling it out on its own because I think it warrants discussion and highlights some of the issues that exist in examining Wilson and trying to make claims about his ability based purely on his comeback ability and HOF stat lines in some categories.

And there was some pushback in that thread questioning the accuracy of the data guven how remarkable some of Russ's career stats are. Sooo...

To put the myth to bed that it can't be possible for Russ to put up good stats AND be a liability, take in the following stat line:

320 for 495 (65%), 32td vs 0 interceptions, 3952 yards passing. 192 yards rushing on 32 carries (6 ypc). Passer rating of 110.

That's HOF good, right?

Well those stats are Wilson's for the WFT game this year, extrapolated over 16 games.

Wilson was maybe his most ineffective in that game. He completed lows on 3rd down, missed quite a few open players, threw late (including the botched 2 point try). And yet the layman would look at that stat line and start making reservations for his HOF enshrinement ceremony. And we held the ball for 18 minutes with a big chunk of his passing yards coming on the last possession.

Wilson SUCKED during that game and quite frankly was a major reason we lost. But his stats say otherwise.

However, had he actually completed that tying 2point conversion at the end of regulation it would have been yet again another example of how the team is nothing without him.

He is an enigma. A highlight machine and model for efficiency. But barely average to below average moving the chains and with glaring holes in his ability to dissect defenses. And the latter is statistical fact going back to 2016.

 

[Jville]

Russell is a highlight machine.

You you are a myth buster of the 1st order.

And at a moment in time when I have been contemplating giving up on this forum, I find myself hesitating.

Appreciate your contributions. :2thumbs:

 

[justafan]

Whether I agree or not I appreciate all the posts you put out for discussions. The WFT game was a mess. Collins and DJ just arent good enough to give us the threat of running the ball and most agree we are better team when we can do that. 12 rushes. I dont even know if Collins was healthy for much of that game
The 3rd downs sucked cant sugar coat that.

 

[keasley45]

Whether I agree or not I appreciate all the posts you put out for discussions. The WFT game was a mess. Collins and DJ just arent good enough to give us the threat of running the ball and most agree we are better team when we can do that. 12 rushes. I dont even know if Collins was healthy for much of that game
The 3rd downs sucked cant sugar coat that.

I appreciate the appreciation!

Agree the rushing game wasn't good, but we only ran 3 times per qtr. Hard tonget in a rhythm that way, and our passing game was doing nothing to push the WFT out of the box. So it cuts both ways. I'd wager we've had some outstanding rushing performances over the years after struggling over the first 12 attempts.

Our pass to run ratio was 72%. You can't win that way.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Weird to pull out the WFT game for your example, Russ's finger was obviously still bothering him which is why there were more errant throws and looking passive and his usual confident self at times.

But your other points are valid, and things I have been saying a while. He does have a hard time reading defenses, making the correct checks, getting the ball out on time to the right receiver and seeing the field as he should.

Also why I've said I do think Pete's used Wilson the right way playing to his strengths.

But there in lies the rub, Russell doesn't agree. He sees himself on equal ground with Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc and doesn't like to just manage games and take advantage of his explosive play action ability.

That's the enigma part for me. Him not having the honest self awareness to see that Pete's used him brilliantly, all the way to someday putting on a gold jacket and being a top 10 QB in NFL history.

 

[keasley45]

Weird to pull out the WFT game for your example, Russ's finger was obviously still bothering him which is why there were more errant throws and looking passive and his usual confident self at times.

But your other points are valid, and things I have been saying a while. He does have a hard time reading defenses, making the correct checks, getting the ball out on time to the right receiver and seeing the field as he should.

Also why I've said I do think Pete's used Wilson the right way playing to his strengths.

But there in lies the rub, Russell doesn't agree. He sees himself on equal ground with Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc and doesn't like to just manage games and take advantage of his explosive play action ability.

That's the enigma part for me. Him not having the honest self awareness to see that Pete's used him brilliantly, all the way to someday putting on a gold jacket and being a top 10 QB in NFL history.

Agree with most everything you said.

I pulled the WFT game because it was an obvious example where Russ's play was shaky for 3 3/4 qtrs and then he managed to pull out a TD at the end. Why he struggled was less important, because his rate on 3rd down that game is statistically in line with his performance before the injury ( we were last in the league passing on 3rd down). And he did have 2 or 3 errant throws, but this misreads and late throws have been part of his game from the beginning. And from the beginning, despite those flaws, hes been able to post great games, play average to below average ball for 3 qtrs, and then pull it together for one or two drives to save the game.

Without being able to see how he does individually through the air, its easy to make the assumption that he's succeeding despite his offense.

Another example i thought to use was the Minnesota game. He had a rating of 112 that game and threw for just shy of 300 yards, but was again well below avg on 3rd down. And on par with games for the last 3 years, he put up huge numbers in the first half, hovering around 70% completion rate, and then tanked completely in the 2nd half to about 59%. Likewise in that game, like the season, and in seasons past, his completion rate on 1st and 2nd down hover at around 70% or better and then drop to 50% on 3rd down.

But its true that his worst passing game in terms of bad passes was Washington at 25.8% poor passes. But 2nd was Houston at 25% - the game everyone pretty much thought he was back in. And 3rd was week 2 vs Tennessee at 22.6% well before his injury, and then 4th was Chicago at 22.2% bad passes, well after his injury. So its a mixed bag in terms of his bad passes.

 

[LTH]

My question is has there been any improvement with in the last 3 games?

LTH

 

[LTH]

If there is improvement which I'm not going to check the numbers cause I'm not a stat guy, then it would be an indication that the problem is being addressed...

But I would think being that the run game has been so effective that the % would be up?


LTH

 

[keasley45]

My question is has there been any improvement with in the last 3 games?

LTH

hard to say definitively, but because between Bears and the Lions, they played two losing teams, but the Bears sport the 3rd best defense against the pass and they gave Russel fits. The Lions rank 26th against the pass and are equally inept in most other categories. So we looked better against Detroit, and Russ played better, but he did it against one of the worst teams in the league. 7 days prior, i cant imagine the philosophy was different, and he fell flat.

ANd the Bears game was anotehr frsutrating one because our pass game was struggling, but our run game was killing it, but we chose to run only 45% of the time and instead, threw to win, and lost. BTW the Bears had the 24th rated run defense. Had that ratio been reversed, we win. And the stats prove that out.

And of course the week before, we played the Rams, and that was another game that was just a stinker through the air, but effective on the ground, but again we ran only 19 times against 31 passes. A lopsided ration yet again and a huge contributor to our losing. Its a stubborn and frankly stupid pattern that's been evident this year and last, with the exception of the last half of last season.

The positive i can offer is that i'd wager Pete has had enough of the pass attack futility. I doubt it was his idea to go pass against the bears when their strength was the pass game and their liability, a 24th ranked run defense. Im pretty confident that when Detroit came in 2 spots worse against the run the following week, he made it clear that we were going to win by running the ball. And we did, passing only 49% of the time.

So i cant say i see evidence of improvement, other than maybe Pete inserting or mandating logic in a game plan to pound the ball. But that's speculation.

 

[John63]

The only thing I will say about this is how amazing it is most of you always say stats can be made to show what we want when those stats support Wilson but when they don't they are gospel. All these stats are great but again I can show stats showing the opposite. The reality is none of you will ever change your minds and neither will I or others who believe the stats and facts supporting Wilson. As I said in another the thread the truth is probably in the middle however unfortunately some will not even except that.

So believe what you want I will belive what I want others will believe what they want.

 

[keasley45]

The only thing I will say about this is how amazing it is most of you always say stats can be made to show what we want when those stats support Wilson but when they don't they are gospel. All these stats are great but again I can show stats showing the opposite. The reality is none of you will ever change your minds and neither will I or others who believe the stats and facts supporting Wilson. As I said in another the thread the truth is probably in the middle however unfortunately some will not even except that.

So believe what you want I will belive what I want others will believe what they want.

Show the stats that he's better than average on 3rd down.

 

[DarkVictory23]

The only thing I will say about this is how amazing it is most of you always say stats can be made to show what we want when those stats support Wilson but when they don't they are gospel. All these stats are great but again I can show stats showing the opposite. The reality is none of you will ever change your minds and neither will I or others who believe the stats and facts supporting Wilson. As I said in another the thread the truth is probably in the middle however unfortunately some will not even except that.

So believe what you want I will belive what I want others will believe what they want.

Except, what would be the 'middle' for you?

Because for a lot of us, the issue with Russell isn't 'Russ sucks', it's that 'Russ is great, perhaps the best, at very particular aspects of his QB game but average to below on other aspects of the game and he seems to be demanding an offensive philosophy that relies on him being better at the things he's not great at which is not helping our team develop a good offensive rhythm'.

Your side appears to be that 'Russ is absolutely the best QB of all-time and I will only begrudgingly admit he's ever done anything wrong for the amount of time it takes for me to decide whether I should blame the offensive line, his receivers, the coaches, or the media before I take it back'.


So what's the middle of these camps?

 

[keasley45]

The only thing I will say about this is how amazing it is most of you always say stats can be made to show what we want when those stats support Wilson but when they don't they are gospel. All these stats are great but again I can show stats showing the opposite. The reality is none of you will ever change your minds and neither will I or others who believe the stats and facts supporting Wilson. As I said in another the thread the truth is probably in the middle however unfortunately some will not even except that.

So believe what you want I will belive what I want others will believe what they want.

Except, what would be the 'middle' for you?

Because for a lot of us, the issue with Russell isn't 'Russ sucks', it's that 'Russ is great, perhaps the best, at very particular aspects of his QB game but average to below on other aspects of the game and he seems to be demanding an offensive philosophy that relies on him being better at the things he's not great at which is not helping our team develop a good offensive rhythm'.

Your side appears to be that 'Russ is absolutely the best QB of all-time and I will only begrudgingly admit he's ever done anything wrong for the amount of time it takes for me to decide whether I should blame the offensive line, his receivers, the coaches, or the media before I take it back'.


So what's the middle of these camps?

That's a great way of putting it and a great question.

 

[justafan]

My question is has there been any improvement with in the last 3 games?

LTH

hard to say definitively, but because between Bears and the Lions, they played two losing teams, but the Bears sport the 3rd best defense against the pass and they gave Russel fits. The Lions rank 26th against the pass and are equally inept in most other categories. So we looked better against Detroit, and Russ played better, but he did it against one of the worst teams in the league. 7 days prior, i cant imagine the philosophy was different, and he fell flat.

ANd the Bears game was anotehr frsutrating one because our pass game was struggling, but our run game was killing it, but we chose to run only 45% of the time and instead, threw to win, and lost. BTW the Bears had the 24th rated run defense. Had that ratio been reversed, we win. And the stats prove that out.

And of course the week before, we played the Rams, and that was another game that was just a stinker through the air, but effective on the ground, but again we ran only 19 times against 31 passes. A lopsided ration yet again and a huge contributor to our losing. Its a stubborn and frankly stupid pattern that's been evident this year and last, with the exception of the last half of last season.

The positive i can offer is that i'd wager Pete has had enough of the pass attack futility. I doubt it was his idea to go pass against the bears when their strength was the pass game and their liability, a 24th ranked run defense. Im pretty confident that when Detroit came in 2 spots worse against the run the following week, he made it clear that we were going to win by running the ball. And we did, passing only 49% of the time.

So i cant say i see evidence of improvement, other than maybe Pete inserting or mandating logic in a game plan to pound the ball. But that's speculation.

There are a lot of statistics and games that dont add up this year. The offense played well enough to win vs CHI. We did suck at 3rd down. The D got drug up and down the field but our O scored 24 points in 21 mins. Picture the Jaguars game winning 31-7 then look at the stats. We lost about every category in stats.
The running game had too many no shows this year to be great IMO.

 

[John63]

My question is has there been any improvement with in the last 3 games?

LTH

hard to say definitively, but because between Bears and the Lions, they played two losing teams, but the Bears sport the 3rd best defense against the pass and they gave Russel fits. The Lions rank 26th against the pass and are equally inept in most other categories. So we looked better against Detroit, and Russ played better, but he did it against one of the worst teams in the league. 7 days prior, i cant imagine the philosophy was different, and he fell flat.

ANd the Bears game was anotehr frsutrating one because our pass game was struggling, but our run game was killing it, but we chose to run only 45% of the time and instead, threw to win, and lost. BTW the Bears had the 24th rated run defense. Had that ratio been reversed, we win. And the stats prove that out.

And of course the week before, we played the Rams, and that was another game that was just a stinker through the air, but effective on the ground, but again we ran only 19 times against 31 passes. A lopsided ration yet again and a huge contributor to our losing. Its a stubborn and frankly stupid pattern that's been evident this year and last, with the exception of the last half of last season.

The positive i can offer is that i'd wager Pete has had enough of the pass attack futility. I doubt it was his idea to go pass against the bears when their strength was the pass game and their liability, a 24th ranked run defense. Im pretty confident that when Detroit came in 2 spots worse against the run the following week, he made it clear that we were going to win by running the ball. And we did, passing only 49% of the time.

So i cant say i see evidence of improvement, other than maybe Pete inserting or mandating logic in a game plan to pound the ball. But that's speculation.

There are a lot of statistics and games that dont add up this year. The offense played well enough to win vs CHI. We did suck at 3rd down. The D got drug up and down the field but our O scored 24 points in 21 mins. Picture the Jaguars game winning 31-7 then look at the stats. We lost about every category in stats.
The running game had too many no shows this year to be great IMO.

all true but with Wilson having been hurt most of the year this is the best chance some have to show he is less than what he is.

 

[keasley45]

My question is has there been any improvement with in the last 3 games?

LTH

hard to say definitively, but because between Bears and the Lions, they played two losing teams, but the Bears sport the 3rd best defense against the pass and they gave Russel fits. The Lions rank 26th against the pass and are equally inept in most other categories. So we looked better against Detroit, and Russ played better, but he did it against one of the worst teams in the league. 7 days prior, i cant imagine the philosophy was different, and he fell flat.

ANd the Bears game was anotehr frsutrating one because our pass game was struggling, but our run game was killing it, but we chose to run only 45% of the time and instead, threw to win, and lost. BTW the Bears had the 24th rated run defense. Had that ratio been reversed, we win. And the stats prove that out.

And of course the week before, we played the Rams, and that was another game that was just a stinker through the air, but effective on the ground, but again we ran only 19 times against 31 passes. A lopsided ration yet again and a huge contributor to our losing. Its a stubborn and frankly stupid pattern that's been evident this year and last, with the exception of the last half of last season.

The positive i can offer is that i'd wager Pete has had enough of the pass attack futility. I doubt it was his idea to go pass against the bears when their strength was the pass game and their liability, a 24th ranked run defense. Im pretty confident that when Detroit came in 2 spots worse against the run the following week, he made it clear that we were going to win by running the ball. And we did, passing only 49% of the time.

So i cant say i see evidence of improvement, other than maybe Pete inserting or mandating logic in a game plan to pound the ball. But that's speculation.

There are a lot of statistics and games that dont add up this year. The offense played well enough to win vs CHI. We did suck at 3rd down. The D got drug up and down the field but our O scored 24 points in 21 mins. Picture the Jaguars game winning 31-7 then look at the stats. We lost about every category in stats.
The running game had too many no shows this year to be great IMO.

all true but with Wilson having been hurt most of the year this is the best chance some have to show he is less than what he is.

His stats have nothing to do with his injury, and his performance and the criticism of his performance predated his finger. I was on here complaining about how inefficient the offense was after week 2.

Seriously, why is it so difficult to accept that there are more measurables than just the typical stats that Joe Buck and Aikman quote before the game.

It's not an either or proposition. It's both and. Russ is great at some things AND average at best in others. What he's good at gets us points on big plays. What he's bad at results in generally inefficiency.

He is both.

Don't understand why that's so difficult to understand. It's factual. Not fabrication or opportunistic piling on. I didn't make the stats, Russel did. We just point them out.

 

[oldhawkfan]

But its true that his worst passing game in terms of bad passes was Washington at 25.8% poor passes. But 2nd was Houston at 25% - the game everyone pretty much thought he was back in. And 3rd was week 2 vs Tennessee at 22.6% well before his injury, and then 4th was Chicago at 22.2% bad passes, well after his injury. So its a mixed bag in terms of his bad passes.

I’m a little confused by these numbers. Maybe you can clarify. At Houston he had 25% bad passes. What constitutes a bad pass? Any incompletion? Overthrows? Drops? throw aways? If he completes 21 of 28 passes, that is a 75% completion rate. Anyone would take that as a good game. That’s also 25% incompletion. I guess I just need to know the definition of a bad pass. Also by whos interpretation.

 

[keasley45]

But its true that his worst passing game in terms of bad passes was Washington at 25.8% poor passes. But 2nd was Houston at 25% - the game everyone pretty much thought he was back in. And 3rd was week 2 vs Tennessee at 22.6% well before his injury, and then 4th was Chicago at 22.2% bad passes, well after his injury. So its a mixed bag in terms of his bad passes.

I’m a little confused by these numbers. Maybe you can clarify. At Houston he had 25% bad passes. What constitutes a bad pass? Any incompletion? Overthrows? Drops? throw aways? If he completes 21 of 28 passes, that is a 75% completion rate. Anyone would take that as a good game. That’s also 25% incompletion. I guess I just need to know the definition of a bad pass. Also by whos interpretation.

I'll post the link to the site. The way they define it is off target throws. Not throw aways or drops. They quantify drops separately, which is helpful.

 

[keasley45]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... /advanced/

 

[John63]

So if anyone bothered to look at season stats they would note Wilson is atb17.7 bad pass %. To put it in comparison Brady is over 25%.