Seahawks at Niners 11/11...

[5_Golden_Rings]

Anyone saying Seattle winning would be an upset is blind. There is no possible way to stop Wilson at this point. The Seahawks are good for approaching thirty points no matter what defense they play because of it. The only exception to that is if both teams successfully run the football.

If both do not, the advantage goes to the team whose qb is better at converting crucial downs. I’m not dissing Jimmy G, who has been plenty clutch, but come on... have you watched Wilson this year? Whatever advantage the 49ers have in overall roster is completely offset by Wilson.

 

[bmorepunk]

Anyone saying Seattle winning would be an upset is blind. There is no possible way to stop Wilson at this point. The Seahawks are good for approaching thirty points no matter what defense they play because of it. The only exception to that is if both teams successfully run the football.

If both do not, the advantage goes to the team whose qb is better at converting crucial downs. I’m not dissing Jimmy G, who has been plenty clutch, but come on... have you watched Wilson this year? Whatever advantage the 49ers have in overall roster is completely offset by Wilson.

The confidence level is not high for either fan base right now, apparently. Things are a little weird right now.

FiveThirtyEight model has this at about a 70% SF win. That seems right with the SF defense playing as well as it has been and the record and the home field.

 

[94Smith]

Anyone saying Seattle winning would be an upset is blind. There is no possible way to stop Wilson at this point. The Seahawks are good for approaching thirty points no matter what defense they play because of it. The only exception to that is if both teams successfully run the football.

If both do not, the advantage goes to the team whose qb is better at converting crucial downs. I’m not dissing Jimmy G, who has been plenty clutch, but come on... have you watched Wilson this year? Whatever advantage the 49ers have in overall roster is completely offset by Wilson.

Wilson has been playing at an MVP level, but the 49ers have been playing MVP defense. Their DVOA is still at historic levels, their PPG is 12.8 and this is the best pass rush Wilson has faced.

Meanwhile the Seahawks D is ranked 27th in DVOA and is allowing 25.6 PPG.

Not to mention this is home game for the 49ers with extra games rest... our run blockers are coming back and having Juice back is huge for the run game

There is a reason the 49ers are favoured by 6 and it will indeed be an upset if the Seahawks win. That is the definition of an upset... not saying it will never happen but 49ers win this game 7 times out of 10.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

At home, probably. The opposite in Seattle.

 

[94Smith]

At home, probably. The opposite in Seattle.

At this point in the year, I'm not sure what the line would be , but closer to a pick em.. your home advantage is less when your defense has played the way it has.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Yeah, it's strange seeing the D be so bad overall. But, big games at home that mean something? Still a huge advantage. Especially w/Russ under center.

 

[Marvin49]

At home, probably. The opposite in Seattle.

Only thing with that Seattle game is that we really don't know if the game will matter at that point. It's week 17.

At that point playoff positioning may have already been decided.

Then again, that could be the "all the marbles" game.

 

[Giedi]

So I typically go to the other teams board to post something like this, so I'll go ahead and do so here.

Usually I'd post about the Niners this year in general, but really not all that necessary as we've had that conversation about 100 times already. I'll just post about what I'll have my eyes on and what I think I think.

When Seahawks have the Ball:

1) The 49ers are the #1 ranked Defense in the NFL vs the Pass and were the most efficient pass rushing team in the NFL before last week (I haven't seen the numbers including the Cardinals game). The pass rush has suffocated passing games all year and allowed 100 yards or less in 4 straight games.

Having said all that, they haven't faced Russell Wilson or anything close to him. The Cards exposed that pass D a bit my spreading the field and running tempo, so will be curious to see if the Seahawks do the same. That's also a possible offshoot of the short turnaround on a Thursday Night on the road, but it bears watching for sure.

I have absolute confidence that Wilson will get pressured and probably sacked on a few occasions, but the dude is Houdini. I fully expect Bosa to have him dead to rights, he spins away from the sack, he rolls out, and somehow a WR is open by 10-15 yards 50 yards downfield. I've just seen it happen way too often. He's playing out of his mind this year and I won't lie, the dude scares the crap out of me.


2) The 49ers have been vulnerable all season to gash runs. It seems there is always a sequence that they'll give up big chunk yards in the run game. I haven't quite figured out why, but there are a number of possible culprits. Wide 9. Light but fast LBs. Stop the run on the way to the QB.

They also are susceptible to screens.

When the 49ers have the Ball:

1) You know they are gonna run it. Something of a statistical oddity, the 49ers and Seahawks run D ranks are almost identical. They are ranked 13th and 14th vs the run and give up an identical 4.7 yards per rush. The 49ers will run the ball A LOT regardless of whether they are having luck with it. Shanahan is stubborn that way.

2) My guess is that the Seahawks will sell out to stop that run and force Jimmy G to beat them. I mean, that's what I'D do. Strangely enough, through 3 seasons, the Seahawks have only seen Jimmy as a QB for a single drive. He looked great against the Cards, but I'd expect his customary one WTF throw that he seems to have in almost every game, and largely look very efficient in short to medium ranges. I wouldn't expect him to go deep with any regularity.


Injuries:

We'll see who is actually back, but I'd expect Staley, Juszczyk, and Witherspoon back, and possibly McGlinchey.

Kwon Alexander is HUGE. That one really hurts. One thing on him though...he has been in the game when they have been gashed in the run game. He was so fast and all over the field, but he was susceptible to the run. It will be interesting to see if him being out hurts or harms them. The dude is a great player, so not trying to say it isn't a blow, but curious to see what happens in that specific aspect.

In his stead you will probably see a lot of Dre Greenlaw who played will in preseason and some Azeez Al-Shaair, whom I actually really like, but is also undersized and raw.

This matchup reminds me of the old Joe Montana vs Steve Bartowski days (SF vs Atlanta - back when Atlanta was in the NFC west). Back then Joe would be Russel and Bartowski would be Jimmy from a mobility standpoint. :mrgreen:

Having said that, I think being at home, the 49ers are going to test that Seattle Secondary and if the 'Hawks are going to defend the run - Kyle's going to call some play action passes that might just gash them severely to back off on the run. Might as well use home field advantage for something.

As for the 49er defense, agree - Greenlaw and Azeez will be tested. If I was Pete and Shottenheimer, those two rookies - Greenlaw and Azeez would be the guys I would scheme to attack. A great staple to attacking the 4-3 under would be misdirection and play action passes. Because of the 49er pass rush, I'd move Russell on designed moving pockets, roll outs, QB keepers, and the like. I'd really call a lot of run plays to neutralize that 49er pass rush and force the 49er weak spot in run defense to adjust and have them thinking run when Shottenheimer will call a play action pass deep to Lockett or DK.

I think this game will be much closer than what Vegas has a line on. It could be decided on the last play of the last drive of the game. :shock: :?: :?

They may change it for this game, but for the record the 49ers haven’t used under fronts as much this year. They’ve been doing a lot more even fronts and wide 9 stuff than they have in several years. They’ll still use a nose tackle, but rarely are five men on the line.

Agree. I think the decision was made by Kyle this season to stop the pass first - hence the wide 9. Also agree that they might change the wide 9 to defend the run better in this particular game - specifically Russell getting out of the pocket and running bootlegs and read options.

But any defensive adjustments by the 49ers will be based on what the Seattle initial 15 offensive scripted plays will be, for the most part. I forsee Shottenhiemer calling a lot of screens, draws, quick hitters for the Seattle RB, and runs by Russell. But that all goes out the window if (by happenstance) the 49ers can get a two score lead on Seattle. At that point, Pete and Shottenheimer - if they fall too far behind - will have to forego the run and it's at that point that Kyle will unleash the Bosa Constrictors and start strangling the Seattle pass offense.

Having said that, I think the game will be nip and tuck and won't be decided till the 4rth qtr, just like the Arizona game with Kyler. I think rookie LB's Greenlaw and Azeez will be taken to the cleaners by Russell and his passing and running and will have that 49er defense on its heels for a majority of the game. Because of that it's going to be a great Monday night game vs (as the media seems to expect) a blow out.

 

[Maulbert]

At home, probably. The opposite in Seattle.

Only thing with that Seattle game is that we really don't know if the game will matter at that point. It's week 17.

At that point playoff positioning may have already been decided.

Then again, that could be the "all the marbles" game.

Well, remember, the NFC West wasn't decided until Week 17 from 2012-14, and every year the top two teams won at least 11 games.

Week 17 2012 Standings:
49ers 10-4-1
Hawks 10-5

Week 17 2013 Standings:
Hawks 12-3
49ers 11-4

Week 17 2014 Standings:
Hawks 11-4
Cards 11-4

 

[Ezekiel38]

Will be interesting to see if Week 17 still matters for the seeding even if the NFC West is wrapped up. The game in New Orleans on 12/8 will be epic.

First things first though...have to beat Seattle on Monday night. Lose that game and everything is up in the air, including the division. This is a must win for both teams, although probably more so for the Seahawks considering the NFC playoff picture and their upcoming gauntlet of a schedule.

Can't wait for Monday night. You guys can shut us up for sure if you prove you can beat us at home on 11 days rest. Good luck to you, unless that means winning on a terrible ref call.

If turnovers are even I don't see how you win this game. But turnovers happen so we can definitely be humbled if we don't take care of the football.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Talk about a perfect game to flex at the end of the season. Something very likely will be on the line at the House of Noise that Sunday.

And you don't see how we win this game? Have you seen our offense and our QB?

 

[Maulbert]

Will be interesting to see if Week 17 still matters for the seeding even if the NFC West is wrapped up. The game in New Orleans on 12/8 will be epic.

First things first though...have to beat Seattle on Monday night. Lose that game and everything is up in the air, including the division. This is a must win for both teams, although probably more so for the Seahawks considering the NFC playoff picture and their upcoming gauntlet of a schedule.

Can't wait for Monday night. You guys can shut us up for sure if you prove you can beat us at home on 11 days rest. Good luck to you, unless that means winning on a terrible ref call.

If turnovers are even I don't see how you win this game. But turnovers happen so we can definitely be humbled if we don't take care of the football.

It's a must win for the division title, not so much for the playoffs. If Seattle loses, their division hopes are probably gone, but we still have games against the Eagles, Rams, Panthers, and Vikings who are all the major WC contenders in the NFC.

 

[Marvin49]

Will be interesting to see if Week 17 still matters for the seeding even if the NFC West is wrapped up. The game in New Orleans on 12/8 will be epic.

First things first though...have to beat Seattle on Monday night. Lose that game and everything is up in the air, including the division. This is a must win for both teams, although probably more so for the Seahawks considering the NFC playoff picture and their upcoming gauntlet of a schedule.

Can't wait for Monday night. You guys can shut us up for sure if you prove you can beat us at home on 11 days rest. Good luck to you, unless that means winning on a terrible ref call.

If turnovers are even I don't see how you win this game. But turnovers happen so we can definitely be humbled if we don't take care of the football.

It's a must win for the division title, not so much for the playoffs. If Seattle loses, their division hopes are probably gone, but we still have games against the Eagles, Rams, Panthers, and Vikings who are all the major WC contenders in the NFC.

...and if they win things get REAL interesting with the schedule getting pretty tough for both teams.

 

[Maulbert]

Will be interesting to see if Week 17 still matters for the seeding even if the NFC West is wrapped up. The game in New Orleans on 12/8 will be epic.

First things first though...have to beat Seattle on Monday night. Lose that game and everything is up in the air, including the division. This is a must win for both teams, although probably more so for the Seahawks considering the NFC playoff picture and their upcoming gauntlet of a schedule.

Can't wait for Monday night. You guys can shut us up for sure if you prove you can beat us at home on 11 days rest. Good luck to you, unless that means winning on a terrible ref call.

If turnovers are even I don't see how you win this game. But turnovers happen so we can definitely be humbled if we don't take care of the football.

It's a must win for the division title, not so much for the playoffs. If Seattle loses, their division hopes are probably gone, but we still have games against the Eagles, Rams, Panthers, and Vikings who are all the major WC contenders in the NFC.

...and if they win things get REAL interesting with the schedule getting pretty tough for both teams.

Well, if the Hawks beat the 49ers in San Fran, let me just say, those other 4 games feel far less daunting.

 

[Ezekiel38]

Will be interesting to see if Week 17 still matters for the seeding even if the NFC West is wrapped up. The game in New Orleans on 12/8 will be epic.

First things first though...have to beat Seattle on Monday night. Lose that game and everything is up in the air, including the division. This is a must win for both teams, although probably more so for the Seahawks considering the NFC playoff picture and their upcoming gauntlet of a schedule.

Can't wait for Monday night. You guys can shut us up for sure if you prove you can beat us at home on 11 days rest. Good luck to you, unless that means winning on a terrible ref call.

If turnovers are even I don't see how you win this game. But turnovers happen so we can definitely be humbled if we don't take care of the football.

It's a must win for the division title, not so much for the playoffs. If Seattle loses, their division hopes are probably gone, but we still have games against the Eagles, Rams, Panthers, and Vikings who are all the major WC contenders in the NFC.

...and if they win things get REAL interesting with the schedule getting pretty tough for both teams.

Well, if the Hawks beat the 49ers in San Fran, let me just say, those other 4 games feel far less daunting.

This makes a lot of sense. If you beat us in SF, you are legit. If you lose those other 4 games will likely feel very daunting as the NFC is super competitive and a wild card is not even assured at 7-3 with those last six games you have. All of those four games are essentially a pick em and I'll be interested how you fare against those teams. Just like people want to see us against Baltimore, and NO. I think GB just illuminated they are on a tier below the elite teams.

And as Marvin said, the NFC West will be SUPER interesting down the stretch if you win Monday night, esp if the Rams find their form and go on a win streak of their own, while we both have a gauntlet of tough games coming up.

 

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[Ezekiel38]

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Interesting chart for sure. Something has got to give. If our D is as good as we are boasting, going agaisnt a better offense like the Seahawks won't matter and we can shut them down like the others. We can only play who is on our schedule. We will see if a better O can handle our pass rush. How is your Oline? If not good then I doubt your offense will be too effective.

If not then you will be able to score effectively and the game will be super close with no advantage to one side or the other except the home field. If our pass rush does not get to Wilson then it could be a long night defensively and we can be exposed like the Pats.

Thanks for posting. Adds even more intrigue to this game.

Edit: Also, the Chargers completely shut down the Packers who are ranked 4th on your chart. So if they could do that I'd expect us to be able to shut them down as well. This would render this chart moot. We will see Monday.

 

[5_Golden_Rings]

Anyone saying Seattle winning would be an upset is blind. There is no possible way to stop Wilson at this point. The Seahawks are good for approaching thirty points no matter what defense they play because of it. The only exception to that is if both teams successfully run the football.

If both do not, the advantage goes to the team whose qb is better at converting crucial downs. I’m not dissing Jimmy G, who has been plenty clutch, but come on... have you watched Wilson this year? Whatever advantage the 49ers have in overall roster is completely offset by Wilson.

Wilson has been playing at an MVP level, but the 49ers have been playing MVP defense. Their DVOA is still at historic levels, their PPG is 12.8 and this is the best pass rush Wilson has faced.

Meanwhile the Seahawks D is ranked 27th in DVOA and is allowing 25.6 PPG.

Not to mention this is home game for the 49ers with extra games rest... our run blockers are coming back and having Juice back is huge for the run game

There is a reason the 49ers are favoured by 6 and it will indeed be an upset if the Seahawks win. That is the definition of an upset... not saying it will never happen but 49ers win this game 7 times out of 10.

The 49ers defense has been playing very well most of the year, but it just lost Kwon, who could have been very useful against Wilson.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

49ers fans are more of a national fanbase. There are probably more 49er fans in Seattle than Santa Clara.

I'm sure your Canadian girlfriend is indeed as lovely as she appears in the pictures of the catalog you break out to show all the doubters.

Nice twisting of what I said. What was I comparing the baseline to? Santa Clara. The wine and cheese elite don’t really care about sports. The tickets are already bought and paid for, but by who? Rich turds who thought the licenses were a wise financial investment, or a good social investment status, not fans. That is why they pay the money and either don’t show up or hang out in the comfortable restaurants areas. Where this Candlstick and the home of the cholos, you wouldn’t see this.

So what you're saying is that the people in the city where the 49ers actually play are so terrible that they buy up all the tickets so no one else can, and then don't go to the games, forcing their own team to play in front of a half-empty stadium? Jeez, talk about openly sabotaging your own "investment."

In my defense, I’ve been here for years. This site however, would never accept my gmail address until this year.

Oh you poor, sweet, naive rube. Or maybe you think we are. This site has never had a problem with Gmail addresses.

 

[Popeyejones]

Interesting chart for sure. Something has got to give. If our D is as good as we are boasting, going agaisnt a better offense like the Seahawks won't matter and we can shut them down like the others.

The 49ers defense is going to regress in the second half of the year, likely partially because of the quality of offenses it's playing against, but also because it's very unlikely that the 49ers defense this year is the best defense in the history of the NFL.

At the same time though, who is the rube who wants to bet on Russell Wilson finishing the year at or better than 44 TDs and 2 interceptions? :lol:

The point is both the 9ers defense and Wilson are likely to regress in the back half, but that doesn't mean either them won't finish at #1 by the time the year is over (although IIRC defensive performance is much more volatile than QB play, so we had to choose we'd have to guess that the #1 QB halfway through the season is more likely to finish at #1 than the #1 defense in the same scenario).