The 2024 Great Draft Debate

[Chawker]

With most of free agency behind us now its time to formulate our best draft plans and examine trade options. John has done a good job of filling out the roster with Macdonald's type guys, and on budget.

At this point we're very flexible with the direction in which we make our selections, we can go up or we can go down. 16 is a perfect spot to be in round one.

Yet, we must take into consideration the value of a selection and the position in which were selecting it at, then you have to consider the talent of the draft. For example, this would be good year to select a WR, its loaded with good WRs. Followed by OTs and QBs.

John mention the other day about OG being over paid and over valued in the NFL. Does this statement have a hidden meaning into the direction in which we will be selecting in round one. But wait .... Gaurds don't carry the same wait as a QB or WR do. Hmm...

If you have a opinion about the 2024 draft and what the Seahawks might do please voice you opinion here and lets see if we can crawl into Johns head this year.

Cheers

 

[12AngryHawks]

As usual this time of year, my ideal mock drafts are all over the place. As it stands right now, they could ace this draft by taking Graham Barton first, then Colson in the 3rd, and taking either Theo Johnson or that guy from Illinois at TE later. Maybe throw in a safety for depth as well.

 

[Chawker]

I'm thinking that were wanting to get back into the second round, which means trading back in round one. Now if John can't pull off a trade and no noticeable players drops, then we'll have to make our selection at 16.

Unable to move back and no players dropping, our pick is looming, so who has the greatest value left on the board, Jer'Zhan Newton, Laiatu Latu or could we shock everybody and go with a offensive player.

If you want the best value I'd select Brian Thomas jr. WR LSU. Like John said, himself Guards are over rated. Which would eliminate Troy Fautanu. DT are another over rated commodity in round one.

We could reach for Penix or Nix but, I doubt John would go for it at 16.

 

[chris98251]

Guards may be overrated, but you still need them, if you want some that can protect the QB and open run lanes you either need to be able to coach up guys that have flaws or pay for them.

 

[cheese22]

Guard and center may be overrated, until you don't have any. Center seems like the most undervalued position on the field. I keep hoping Olu can take it over and be that guy. If Bradford is who they think is their guy on one side, then it stands to reason they are one starting guard away from having their starting 5.

 

[Chawker]

You can't coach speed ! WR Thomas 4.33 @ 16 cheers

 

[Chukarhawk]

I'm thinking that were wanting to get back into the second round, which means trading back in round one. Now if John can't pull off a trade and no noticeable players drops, then we'll have to make our selection at 16.

Unable to move back and no players dropping, our pick is looming, so who has the greatest value left on the board, Jer'Zhan Newton, Laiatu Latu or could we shock everybody and go with a offensive player.

If you want the best value I'd select Brian Thomas jr. WR LSU. Like John said, himself Guards are over rated. Which would eliminate Troy Fautanu. DT are another over rated commodity in round one.

We could reach for Penix or Nix but, I doubt John would go for it at 16.

Penix isn't a reach at 16, Nix is. Nix is a day 2 guy. Feels like were going to trade back especially after the Howell trade.

 

[CactusJack]

I'm thinking that were wanting to get back into the second round, which means trading back in round one. Now if John can't pull off a trade and no noticeable players drops, then we'll have to make our selection at 16.

Unable to move back and no players dropping, our pick is looming, so who has the greatest value left on the board, Jer'Zhan Newton, Laiatu Latu or could we shock everybody and go with a offensive player.

If you want the best value I'd select Brian Thomas jr. WR LSU. Like John said, himself Guards are over rated. Which would eliminate Troy Fautanu. DT are another over rated commodity in round one.

We could reach for Penix or Nix but, I doubt John would go for it at 16.

I'm not in favor of trading out. In fact, I'm staunchly against it.

The upside of moving back isn't as good as people here seem to think.

1. You're not getting a 2nd round pick in a trade unless you we're to move back to the end of round 1. Best case: You would receive a mid-late third rounder in return.

2. There simply won't be as many impact players in that range vs. picking at 16.

3. Teams typically only have 15-18 1st Round grades on players. Some years, it's even less.

4. Their track record has been less than stellar when trading back (2016-'19). It's really poor. You can look it up. I'm not lying.

Which is why I'm a strong advocate of staying put & taking the BPA at your pick. Especially in the first round.

 

[Wsumatt1982]

The last couple days I’ve been getting this feeling latu is their guy. Verse and turner will be gone so late is him. I think if verse or turner fall they jump all over it but if they don’t then it’s latu

 

[Chawker]

Jack, theres nothing wrong with staying put and selecting at 16.

The real question is who ? I'm thinking its to early to take a guard. Latu is the most pro ready player, BUT ! We have 4 players already at this position.

What about DL ? If Mac want to build his wall then this is an area which could be improved upon. This rules out Latu because of his size.

Theres Murphy, Newton who both great run defenders, yet offer little to the pass rush. If we dig a little deeper theres Fiske who can penetrate the back field and is quite disruptive. My favorite pick would be Darius Robinson DE
the new Micheal Bennett.

My selection Darius Robinson DE Missouri

Cheers

 

[SonicHawk]

Latu is mocked anywhere from like 8th to 20th. I don't see how we don't draft him at 16. But honestly I wouldn't mind trading for 2025 R1 + 2024 R2.

 

[Jegpeg]

3. Teams typically only have 15-18 1st Round grades on players. Some years, it's even less.

True but every team gives different players a 1st round grade.
According to the report below the Seahawks had less than 20 players with a 1st round grade in last year's draft, however when it got to pick 20 four of them were still on the board so we were able to choose JSN. Not only that but the last player with a 1st round grade off the Seahawks board was Derrick Hall. (You can argue he shouldn't have had a 1st round grade but that is a different matter)
If it gets to pick 16 and there are still quite a few 1st Round graded players on the board then it can make sece to trade back as you can still pick one up with your lower pick, if there are only a couple left it makes sense to pick one before they are all gone.
https://www.seahawks.com/news/go-wi...seahawks-draft-room-during-the-2023-nfl-draft

 

[Chawker]

Ok, lets say we take a edge guy, like Latu. We have 4 good edge guys right now, so tell me how does it make our team better ? And don't give me that BPA stuff.

If Mac wants to run multiple fronts we need a D-lineman, Guard, MLB. Taking a OLB in the first is like drafting a WR or CB. Plan silly.

 

[CactusJack]

True but every team gives different players a 1st round grade.
According to the report below the Seahawks had less than 20 players with a 1st round grade in last year's draft, however when it got to pick 20 four of them were still on the board so we were able to choose JSN. Not only that but the last player with a 1st round grade off the Seahawks board was Derrick Hall. (You can argue he shouldn't have had a 1st round grade but that is a different matter)
If it gets to pick 16 and there are still quite a few 1st Round graded players on the board then it can make sece to trade back as you can still pick one up with your lower pick, if there are only a couple left it makes sense to pick one before they are all gone.
https://www.seahawks.com/news/go-wi...seahawks-draft-room-during-the-2023-nfl-draft

I'm well aware.

No, I still would stay & pick in most cases. If you we're picking towards the end of the round (late 20's), then it might be different.

Any time you move down, logic would say that you're bypassing the opportunity to select from a pool of better talent. There have been too many instances in their past, of doing said thing & missing out on certain guys, which then leads to reaching on a player. They've had way more success when they stick & pick (BPA).

 

[CactusJack]

Ok, lets say we take a edge guy, like Latu. We have 4 good edge guys right now, so tell me how does it make our team better ? And don't give me that BPA stuff.

If Mac wants to run multiple fronts we need a D-lineman, Guard, MLB. Taking a OLB in the first is like drafting a WR or CB. Plan silly.

Do they really have 4 good edge guys at the moment? Let's be honest. Taylor is a JAG. Nwosu & Mafe are starting caliber. But that's about it. Derick Hall hasn't shown that he can be a starter. You need more than 2 guys.

Take the most impactful player. Regardless of position. If it's a WR, then so be it.

 

[CPHawk]

Trade down to the mid 20s, get back a 2nd round pick. Take the best DT on the board in the 1st, and top safety in the 2nd. Our D is why we missed the playoffs.

 

[chris98251]

Many thought Irvin was a 3rd round guy when we picked him, it's not what we think is a 1st round grade or the mediots and other teams, it's what the Seahawks deem a first round grade based on what they want to use them for in their system. So a guy like John Randall could have no Grade and be a UDFA yet get passed over for 14 rounds back in the day and a guy like Art Schlister gets a high round grade, the evacuations by each team is the key.

 

[WarHawks]

Why is it so important to have a 2nd round pick vs an impactful pick at 16? Is quantity better than quality?

 

[Sun Tzu]

My Big Board

1. Caleb Williams
2. Malik Nabers
3. Marvin Harrison Jr.
4. Jayden Daniels
5. Drake Maye

6. Rome Odunze
7. Brock Bowers
8. Joe Alt
9. Laiatu Latu
10. Dallas Turner

11. Jared Verse
12. Taliese Fuaga
13. Troy Fautanu
14. Byron Murphy
15. Brian Thomas Jr.
16. Jackson Powers Johnson


Any of those guys would be worth taking at 16.

If I had to guess, they're likely targeting Fautanu & possibly Murphy with the pick. Maybe they get lucky & one of the edge players (Latu or Verse) drops to them.

I'm also not a huge Johnny Newton fan. He has some size limitations. Fiske is a day two guy.

The interesting dilemma to consider is, if four of those guys are available when picking at 16 (definitely a possibility from what I am seeing in mock drafts and the consensus big board), and you’ve got a great offer on the table to trade back five spots. What do you do?

Do you take the trade and pick up extra draft capital while still having a high probability of getting one of the guys you’d take at 16. Or, do you stick and pick the best of the four on your board, passing on the chance to get those extra draft picks later?

If it’s me, unless I’ve got one of the four graded significantly higher than the others, I take that trade back 100 times out of 100. Sure there’s a chance all four options on the top of my board disappear by the time I pick five pics later, but that seems like a pretty low probability scenario, and a risk I’m willing to take to pick up the extra draft picks later.

 

[Chawker]

Sure, IF Harrison or Odunze falls take'em. IF one of the top four QBs fall, take'em. But, realistic they won't be there at 16. It fantasy over reality so stop dreaming and start realizing.

We need: LG and MLB round one is not a good spot to select one of these positions. Opening us up to some flexibility with our first select.

Cheers