This is how I see it. Big talent cliff after those 4. Gotta stay put, unless you get a trade back that sets you up to have another big ol' draft in 2024.
I get it but that’s the whole point of the discussion. As you point out, “if Carter or Anderson are gone”. That’s why we want to be in preferably top 3 or very worst top 4.
Yep. This draft as of now has a perceived 4 top players. Each draft is different so bringing up other drafts means nothing to this draft. Remember there are 4 perceived level 1 players as of now, not 5, not 3, but 4.
100%!!! Even if the Hawks want to deal their pick they want it as close to 1 as possible.
Sorry to disagree but most likely we are picking 4th because the Colts would have to lose to the Texans for them to jump in front of us to the 4 spot and Houston will do whatever they can to lose that game to ensure the 1st pick.
Someone did a recent dive of top 5 defensive lineman taken over the past few years and it wasn’t a ton better than the quarterbacks.
You stated that earlier in the post. Thanks for the correction and pointing that out again!
No worries and you may be right that we trade our pick and stack 2024 picks. Frankly I loved not only rooting for the Hawks this year but also rooting against the Broncos. Reminds me of when we traded Galloway for 2 ones and rooted against the Cowgirls hard for 2 seasons.
), a good-but-not-great-so-far CB, and Chubb. Let's say one and a half players out of five actually appear, five seasons later, to have been good uses of top-five picks.
Plus, even if it were a four-person draft, odds are that at least one of those players is going to slide out as the offseason evaluation/hype ramps up.The top five from 2018 offer a nice lesson. There were two QBs nowhere close to being the kind of franchise QB a team would want out of a top-five pick, a running back picked with a top-five pick (in 2018, even though I thought all NFL front offices would have been too smart to do that by then... EDITED to add: ...but I had forgotten just how far out of his depth Gettleman was
This is part of why I agreed with @ZornLargentPatera that it's not worth obsessing over #3 vs. #5. There will be players picked in the top five who will end up being greatly outperformed in their first four years in the NFL and over their entire careers by players picked outside the top ten, and probably even picked outside the first round. It might be because of injury, it might be because of a player being picked by the "wrong" team (one that uses a scheme in which his strong points are least useful), or it might be because of players producing differently in the NFL from how they were projected to perform based on their minor-league ("college") performance, or it might be a combination of those and other factors.
In any case, yes, on average it's better to have the third pick than the fifth, but not so much better that it's worth getting upset about the difference.
