JerHawk81
Well-known member
With around a quarter of the year done, I thought it would be fun to do a deep dive into our rookies and the draft, looking at the player, value, alternatives, and projections. And before you object - yes - it will be another 15 months before we really know how the 2023 draft panned out, but I'd also argue that we've already learned a lot.
Regarding Witherspoon: Taking a player in the top 5 is inherently risky, and missing can be very costly in both draft capital and salary cap. Given that, many thought that we would trade back.
But, early indications are that by staying at 5, they got a premium player with a premium pick.
When you're looking at film, stats, PFF scores, pundit chatter, or casual observations, Witherspoon looks the part. He's shown very good ball skills, great quickness, great flexibility, and a toughness that scares me given his modest size. With Gonzalez (CB, NE) out for the year with injury, Witherspoon is highly likely to be the top rookie CB this year, and should get serious consideration for even higher praises, including defensive rookie of the year.
His NFL film has also looked nearly identical to his college film. This shows up around the ball, but where it really stands out is his stickiness with WRs away from the play.
His limitations, namely his less-than ideal length and straight line speed, have been minor factors. He was nearly caught from behind on his pick six, and he failed to make up enough ground on the flee flicker to save the TD, suggesting that his straight line speed good, but that he lacks that extra gear that most elite CBs posses. Not a huge factor, but relevant.
So, you gotta be pleased with the kid and the pick.
But for me, perhaps the greatest win of Witherspoon is the alternatives. Tyree Wilson was the most likely pick, and ended up going 7 to LV - and has been an absolute disaster. He had got a fair number of snaps, but hasn't shown any signs of life, has looked very lost and confused, and is consistently scored the lowest of all rookie edges. Another alternative, Will Levis, is the third string QB on a 2-4 team, and yet to play this year. While it's early, going either of these routes looks to have been a disaster.
The other player frequently mocked to Seattle at 5 was Carter. The facts on Carter are clear: He put together elite film in college, but he fell all the way to 9 due to character concerns. He's also an absolute stud, and looks to be the second coming of Aaron Donald - and is already one of the top 5 interior defensive linemen in the NFL. But, lots of other teams, including teams that needed a DT, passed him him, so it's hard to fault any one team for the decision. Still, fair or not, Witherspoon's value and Carter's value are likely to be linked for the next few years.
But probably the most likely outcome at #5 was trading back. And if the team opted to pass on Carter after doing real due diligence (and they really did), trading back was both the most likely option, and the path I would have gone. So, I got that one a bit wrong. But, not nearly as wrong as Wilson or Levis...
Overall, the Witherspoon pick looks to be a clear win. If he can stay healthy, the next big concern we should have with that pick is paying him $25M a year at the end of his rookie contract.
Regarding Witherspoon: Taking a player in the top 5 is inherently risky, and missing can be very costly in both draft capital and salary cap. Given that, many thought that we would trade back.
But, early indications are that by staying at 5, they got a premium player with a premium pick.
When you're looking at film, stats, PFF scores, pundit chatter, or casual observations, Witherspoon looks the part. He's shown very good ball skills, great quickness, great flexibility, and a toughness that scares me given his modest size. With Gonzalez (CB, NE) out for the year with injury, Witherspoon is highly likely to be the top rookie CB this year, and should get serious consideration for even higher praises, including defensive rookie of the year.
His NFL film has also looked nearly identical to his college film. This shows up around the ball, but where it really stands out is his stickiness with WRs away from the play.
His limitations, namely his less-than ideal length and straight line speed, have been minor factors. He was nearly caught from behind on his pick six, and he failed to make up enough ground on the flee flicker to save the TD, suggesting that his straight line speed good, but that he lacks that extra gear that most elite CBs posses. Not a huge factor, but relevant.
So, you gotta be pleased with the kid and the pick.
But for me, perhaps the greatest win of Witherspoon is the alternatives. Tyree Wilson was the most likely pick, and ended up going 7 to LV - and has been an absolute disaster. He had got a fair number of snaps, but hasn't shown any signs of life, has looked very lost and confused, and is consistently scored the lowest of all rookie edges. Another alternative, Will Levis, is the third string QB on a 2-4 team, and yet to play this year. While it's early, going either of these routes looks to have been a disaster.
The other player frequently mocked to Seattle at 5 was Carter. The facts on Carter are clear: He put together elite film in college, but he fell all the way to 9 due to character concerns. He's also an absolute stud, and looks to be the second coming of Aaron Donald - and is already one of the top 5 interior defensive linemen in the NFL. But, lots of other teams, including teams that needed a DT, passed him him, so it's hard to fault any one team for the decision. Still, fair or not, Witherspoon's value and Carter's value are likely to be linked for the next few years.
But probably the most likely outcome at #5 was trading back. And if the team opted to pass on Carter after doing real due diligence (and they really did), trading back was both the most likely option, and the path I would have gone. So, I got that one a bit wrong. But, not nearly as wrong as Wilson or Levis...
Overall, the Witherspoon pick looks to be a clear win. If he can stay healthy, the next big concern we should have with that pick is paying him $25M a year at the end of his rookie contract.
