That's the disconnect though.
Let's say the Geno talks go completely south and we don't resign him, that doesn't mean we're taking a QB at 5 either. It doesn't even mean the chances go up.
What matters is what Pete, John and our scouting department think of the QB's in this draft, and where they slot them. Also what matters is how confident Pete and John are with developing QB's to have success in our system, and as Pete's said multiple times this off season they're COMPLETELY confident in the system, with our without Geno.
I also disagree with your "we wouldn't draft a QB at 5 if we signed Geno" take. If Pete and John fall in love with Stroud, or Levis, etc? Then they absolutely would take him at 5, or drop down to 6 or 7 if they still think they could get their guy and pick up more picks.
IMO it's why whenever Geno signs, it'll be front loaded with options to cut him in year 2-3. For just this reason, if they draft a QB to develop behind Geno for a year or two.