Why doesn't the NFL expand at the same rate as population in this country?

[fenderbender123]

Since 1980, the population of the US has increased by over 50% (scary and sad, I know).

Since 1980, the number of NFL teams has increased by less than 15%.

This seems to be the reason why tickets are so costly. Why players get paid so much. Etc.

 

[sutz]

Meh. 32 teams is the perfect number. Expansion would just screw things up.

 

[Cyrus12]

The talent across 32 teams is already too thin imo.

 

[Palmegranite]

Since 1980, the population of the US has increased by over 50% (scary and sad, I know).

Since 1980, the number of NFL teams has increased by less than 15%.

This seems to be the reason why tickets are so costly. Why players get paid so much. Etc.

Are there 50% more large cities since 1980 in the U.S.A?

 

[fenderbender123]

No, but for example if say the greater Seattle area is twice the size since 1980, why aren't their two teams? Or a stadium that seats 160,000?

 

[flv2]

Are there 50% more large cities since 1980 in the U.S.A?

No, but this thread isn't about cities or the NFL. It's a political thread about the US population going up 50%. It's been diguised as an NFL thread.

 

[Palmegranite]

No, but for example if say the greater Seattle area is twice the size since 1980, why aren't their two teams? Or a stadium that seats 160,000?

Well I can answer that. It's presumed that a team owner has exclusive territorial rights for that team's city, say with a 50 mile radius of the stadium.
The city population grows, owner sells more merch etc. Nothing wrong with that. Who wants to support Seattle Sawcheats anyways, when you can get the real deal, the Seahawks.

 

[Bobblehead]

talent isn't expanding

 

[bigskydoc]

A - If the population growth of the last 40 years is scary to you, I have good news. Population growth has peaked and flat-lined. If we don't increase our fertility and/or immigration rates, we are going to enter a long period of population decline, similar to what Japan is facing

B - In 1980, with 28 teams, and 45 players on each roster, NFL players represented 0.000554575% of the population. In 2022, with 32 teams, and 53 players on each roster, NFL players represent 0.000510224% of the population.

Top tier football talent level does not rise linearly with population (especially when immigration from non-football playing nations is a significant portion of that growth), but for the sake of argument let's assume that it does.

If we calculated the theoretical number of NFL players we would have, should we increase to 1980's level of 0.000554575% of the overall population, that would give us a total of 1,843 players. Given the current 53 man roster, that means we should have enough players for 34.8 teams, 2.8 more than we currently have.

Given the non-linear nature of talent growth, I would say we are pretty much spot on. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[bigskydoc]

For gits and shiggles, I subtracted the approximately 33 million immigrants we've had since 1980 from today's total population, and redid the math.

That would give us 1,660.4 NFL players, enough to staff 31.3 teams.

Some estimates have immigration exceeding 37 million, that would mean we should have enough players for 30.9 teams.

Perhaps that is why there is such a drop off from the top tier talent to the next tier.

We have TOO MANY NFL teams as compared to 1980.

 

[bigskydoc]

If we eliminated the practice squads, so we could make a more apples to apples comparison to the 45 man squads of 1980, that would give us enough players for 36.4 teams (after subtracting 37 million immigrants)

But that goes back to my non-linear growth claim.

I suggest that spreading that "talent" over 32 practice squads is superior to fielding another 4 teams, and diluting the talent pool further.

Of course, practice squad, and vested vet, rules means there is more talent out there than is represented on the practice squads.

Still, considering the dearth of starting caliber QBs in the league, I'm pretty happy to keep it to 32 teams.

Just some Sunday morning, hot tub musings.

 

[Appyhawk]

NFL is all about money. The reason they don't feel a need to expand in the US is because they already have the major markets accounted for. They have long considered, and so far declined, expansion to the other side of the pond. That is the reason for games played over there. The Seahawks have sizable and active fan clubs established in GB and Germany.

 

[RolandDeschain]

They've been very smart about it. Don't oversaturate the minds of Americans the way the MLB has. So many games, none of them matter and now nobody cares about baseball compared to football. The NFL is practically a year-round sport now, fans don't really stop thinking about it during the offseason, and they do it with 4,316 fewer games per season.

MLB needs to take notice. Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too many baseball games every year.