Anthony!":1fwlo8d5 said:
kearly":1fwlo8d5 said:
Anthony!":1fwlo8d5 said:
well for one we are not a 9-10 win team with Tjack
I would agree that 10 wins feels like a high end estimate, especially with some of the issues on the team that Wilson covers up.
Agreed add in with basically the same team and a much easier schedule he only got us to 7-9 and while you could argue the defense is better, the schedule is also much tougher.
Actually, no, Tavaris Jackson did not lead us to 7-9. Tavaris Jackson was 7-7 as a starter. Charlie Whitehurst started the other two games when Jackson was hurt and went 0-2 (although in fairness, Jackson did enter one of the game that Whitehurst started and ended up with the majority of the pass attempts; still, the team was down 10-3 when he took over, and it was 3-17 by his second possession). Jackson was .500 that year, so really I'd set the baseline at him for 8 wins.
Then, add in the fact that our defense went from "really good/borderline elite" in 2011 to "the best in the game three years running", including tangible impact additions like Bobby Wagner [2012] and Cliff Avril/Michael Bennett [2013]. We were historically great in 2013, one of the most renowned defenses in NFL history. Also, the 2011 49ers were the best non-Seahawks team of 2011-2014 in the West, and our NFC West counterparts won 23 games in both 2011 and 2012.
2011: Jackson [7-7], Whitehurst [0-2]; defense 7th in points per game [19.7], 9th in DVOA
2012: Wilson [11-5]; defense 1st in points per game [15.3], 7th in DVOA
2013: Wilson [13-3]; defense 1st in points per game [14.4], 1st in DVOA (by a landslide)
2014: Wilson [12-4]; defense 1st in points per game [15.9], 1st in DVOA
Is it really a stretch to think that our defense improved by 1-2 wins? (i.e. 9-10 wins for Jackson) Look at the NFCCG this year. Wilson was absolutely abysmal (48% CMP, 44.3 rating, 13.6 QBR, 4 INT, 25 yards rushing), and yet we still won! Yes, I know he threw the game-winning touchdown pass, but the point is that most teams wouldn't even have a shot at a come back to begin with with a performance like that. The defense is so good that we almost never fall behind huge. I don't think it's a stretch at all to think that Jackson would win 9-10 games a year with the 2012-2014 teams (i.e. Rams got better, Niners got worse).
Wilson is
clearly head and shoulders above Jackson, but I don't think the tangible difference is as big as people make it out to be. For example, we know that
some metrics show that Wilson gets more help than anyone. Wilson is also 2-8 when opponents score 24 or more points, which ranks
18th among teams in the NFL. There are times when he wills us to victory (Redskins MNF), but there are also times when he is carried to victory (NFCCG).