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Seattle can still make the playoffs!

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Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:54 am
  • 538 gives them a 4% chance! We're still alive folks! Run the table!
    Welshers
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:37 am
  • Time for your posts to stop puffing and start passing.
    JustTheTip
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:43 am
  • I realize that's mostly tongue-in-cheek meant as a joke and I am by no means optimistic about advancing to the post season, but our chances are likely a little better than 4%.

    Those odds are calculated on historical results, in other words, how often does a team with a 3-7 record with 6 games (or now 7 games) left make the playoffs?

    This is an extremely unusual year in that there are so many teams that are hovering at or just below the .500 mark. If you eliminate the 4 division leaders in our conference, ie Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Arizona, and Dallas, the remaining records for the 3 wild cards are as follows:

    Rams 7-3, Eagles 5-6, Saints 5-5, Vikings 5-5, WFT 4-6, Panthers 5-6, Falcons 4-6, Niners 5-5.

    The Rams are the only team with a lock on a playoff spot. We're only 2 games off the pace with 7 games left to play for one of the two remaining seeds. I would say that's a little better than a 1 in 20 chance.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:09 am
  • I agree with above.

    We all know the hawks are criminally under performing and can do a whole lot better. I'm sure that is why most of us are upset and frustrated.

    I myself expected to lock in and start winning when russ came back. I was wrong, but no one here can say we have performed to our peak potential. If we did the record would look drastically different.

    I still believe. Plus, alot of these teams are criminally overrated. That's why a majority of the nfc is barely 500 or below.
    jamescasey1124
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:05 am
  • jamescasey1124 wrote:Plus, alot of these teams are criminally overrated. That's why a majority of the nfc is barely 500 or below.


    I'm not sure which teams are more over rated, the ones hanging around .500 or the Bills, Cowboys, Titans, Packers, et al division leaders that are not only getting beat, but getting trashed by sub .500 teams.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:02 pm
  • If we win the rest of scheduled games, yes we are in.

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    toffee
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:27 pm
  • RiverDog wrote:I realize that's mostly tongue-in-cheek meant as a joke and I am by no means optimistic about advancing to the post season, but our chances are likely a little better than 4%.

    Those odds are calculated on historical results, in other words, how often does a team with a 3-7 record with 6 games (or now 7 games) left make the playoffs?

    This is an extremely unusual year in that there are so many teams that are hovering at or just below the .500 mark. If you eliminate the 4 division leaders in our conference, ie Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Arizona, and Dallas, the remaining records for the 3 wild cards are as follows:

    Rams 7-3, Eagles 5-6, Saints 5-5, Vikings 5-5, WFT 4-6, Panthers 5-6, Falcons 4-6, Niners 5-5.

    The Rams are the only team with a lock on a playoff spot. We're only 2 games off the pace with 7 games left to play for one of the two remaining seeds. I would say that's a little better than a 1 in 20 chance.


    Out of those 7 teams besides the Rams, the Eagles, Vikings, and WFT look more competent. The Vikings wins and losses are by like 7 or less points except the Seahawks game. Eagles have won 3 out of their last 4 games, and WFT is on a mini 2 game winning streak having beat the GOAT Brady and the Panthers. Saints on a 3 game losing streak ever since they beat Seahawks, Falcons blown on back to back games by *owboys and Patriots, and Panthers hovering over .500. Niners need to show more cuz they looking more like Jekyll and Hyde.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:36 pm
  • Mizak wrote:
    RiverDog wrote:I realize that's mostly tongue-in-cheek meant as a joke and I am by no means optimistic about advancing to the post season, but our chances are likely a little better than 4%.

    Those odds are calculated on historical results, in other words, how often does a team with a 3-7 record with 6 games (or now 7 games) left make the playoffs?

    This is an extremely unusual year in that there are so many teams that are hovering at or just below the .500 mark. If you eliminate the 4 division leaders in our conference, ie Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Arizona, and Dallas, the remaining records for the 3 wild cards are as follows:

    Rams 7-3, Eagles 5-6, Saints 5-5, Vikings 5-5, WFT 4-6, Panthers 5-6, Falcons 4-6, Niners 5-5.

    The Rams are the only team with a lock on a playoff spot. We're only 2 games off the pace with 7 games left to play for one of the two remaining seeds. I would say that's a little better than a 1 in 20 chance.


    Out of those 7 teams besides the Rams, the Eagles, Vikings, and WFT look more competent. The Vikings wins and losses are by like 7 or less points except the Seahawks game. Eagles have won 3 out of their last 4 games, and WFT is on a mini 2 game winning streak having beat the GOAT Brady and the Panthers. Saints on a 3 game losing streak ever since they beat Seahawks, Falcons blown on back to back games by *owboys and Patriots, and Panthers hovering over .500. Niners need to show more cuz they looking more like Jekyll and Hyde.


    That's certainly how it looks now, but it's been such a roller coaster season that I'm not counting anyone in or out. It's too damn bad that we couldn't have won a couple of those close games, like the Titans and Steelers games, or we'd be right in that mix.

    But on the other hand, losing those games could end up being a blessing in disguise, not too unlike having that Vinnie Testeverde helmet touchdown go against us.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:36 pm
  • Mizak wrote:
    RiverDog wrote:I realize that's mostly tongue-in-cheek meant as a joke and I am by no means optimistic about advancing to the post season, but our chances are likely a little better than 4%.

    Those odds are calculated on historical results, in other words, how often does a team with a 3-7 record with 6 games (or now 7 games) left make the playoffs?

    This is an extremely unusual year in that there are so many teams that are hovering at or just below the .500 mark. If you eliminate the 4 division leaders in our conference, ie Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Arizona, and Dallas, the remaining records for the 3 wild cards are as follows:

    Rams 7-3, Eagles 5-6, Saints 5-5, Vikings 5-5, WFT 4-6, Panthers 5-6, Falcons 4-6, Niners 5-5.

    The Rams are the only team with a lock on a playoff spot. We're only 2 games off the pace with 7 games left to play for one of the two remaining seeds. I would say that's a little better than a 1 in 20 chance.


    Out of those 7 teams besides the Rams, the Eagles, Vikings, and WFT look more competent. The Vikings wins and losses are by like 7 or less points except the Seahawks game. Eagles have won 3 out of their last 4 games, and WFT is on a mini 2 game winning streak having beat the GOAT Brady and the Panthers. Saints on a 3 game losing streak ever since they beat Seahawks, Falcons blown on back to back games by *owboys and Patriots, and Panthers hovering over .500. Niners need to show more cuz they looking more like Jekyll and Hyde.


    Ok so we are all saying the same thing. Some teams aren't that bad and some are. Independent of their records. Cuz om any given day they have proven they either aren't or are contenders. Seahawks are doing the same thing. We've played tight ones with better teams. Then lost to teams we shouldn't have. I still think we have a chance. I know because they pack barely beat us and so did the cards. Both of those teams really pulling it out in the end of the game. Which is traditionally more of a seahawks thing.
    jamescasey1124
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:44 pm
  • RiverDog wrote:Rams 7-3, Eagles 5-6, Saints 5-5, Vikings 5-5, WFT 4-6, Panthers 5-6, Falcons 4-6, Niners 5-5.

    The Rams are the only team with a lock on a playoff spot. We're only 2 games off the pace with 7 games left to play for one of the two remaining seeds. I would say that's a little better than a 1 in 20 chance.


    Not completely true because the Saints and Vikings have head to head tie breakers over the Hawks, which puts the hawks 2.5 games behind them. So they would need a tie instead of a win and the hawks get 2 more wins or the hawks get 3 more wins over at least one of them, to over take the last slot.

    I said in a thread after the packers game the Hawks could only lose 2 more games and have any real chance at all to get into the playoffs. Based on the other teams likely final results based on their current record. Which means the hawks now can only afford to lose 1 more game and the saints and vikings need to only win 3 more and lose at least 4 more if the hawks only lose one more to get in.

    One team can do better than what I posted above and still let the Hawks get the 7th slot.

    So mathematically the hawks are still alive but odds are really against it. Not even taking into account the rest ahead of the Hawks. right now only the Lions are behind the hawks in the playoff race based on current tie breakers and records.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:45 pm
  • jamescasey1124 wrote:Ok so we are all saying the same thing. Some teams aren't that bad and some are. Independent of their records. Cuz om any given day they have proven they either aren't or are contenders. Seahawks are doing the same thing. We've played tight ones with better teams. Then lost to teams we shouldn't have. I still think we have a chance. I know because they pack barely beat us and so did the cards. Both of those teams really pulling it out in the end of the game. Which is traditionally more of a seahawks thing.


    The Packers barely beat us? They shut us out 17-0. They had 185 more yards than we had, controlled the ball for 39 minutes to our 21, and missed a very makable FG. Similar story with the Cards, nearly identical TOP, same skewed stats, missed FG's made the game look closer than it was. We were beaten decisively in both games.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:55 pm
  • RiverDog wrote:
    jamescasey1124 wrote:Ok so we are all saying the same thing. Some teams aren't that bad and some are. Independent of their records. Cuz om any given day they have proven they either aren't or are contenders. Seahawks are doing the same thing. We've played tight ones with better teams. Then lost to teams we shouldn't have. I still think we have a chance. I know because they pack barely beat us and so did the cards. Both of those teams really pulling it out in the end of the game. Which is traditionally more of a seahawks thing.


    The Packers barely beat us? They shut us out 17-0. They had 185 more yards than we had, controlled the ball for 39 minutes to our 21, and missed a very makable FG. Similar story with the Cards, nearly identical TOP, same skewed stats, missed FG's made the game look closer than it was. We were beaten decisively in both games.


    Negative. Pack barely scored until late 3rd then beat us down with a big ass back. When our d was done for...then they scored. It wasnt a straight up ass whooping. Plus we had opportunities to score and in red zone. Offense made mistakes.

    Same with cards game. Game didn't get out of hand until 3rd late. Arguably the 4th. Field goals made it closer with misses, but they hardly whooped our asses again.

    It was more of a beat your self then the opposing team imposing their will. Very winnable games. Both of them.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:57 pm
  • RiverDog wrote:
    jamescasey1124 wrote:Ok so we are all saying the same thing. Some teams aren't that bad and some are. Independent of their records. Cuz om any given day they have proven they either aren't or are contenders. Seahawks are doing the same thing. We've played tight ones with better teams. Then lost to teams we shouldn't have. I still think we have a chance. I know because they pack barely beat us and so did the cards. Both of those teams really pulling it out in the end of the game. Which is traditionally more of a seahawks thing.


    The Packers barely beat us? They shut us out 17-0. They had 185 more yards than we had, controlled the ball for 39 minutes to our 21, and missed a very makable FG. Similar story with the Cards, nearly identical TOP, same skewed stats, missed FG's made the game look closer than it was. We were beaten decisively in both games.


    Negative. Pack barely scored until late 3rd then beat us down with a big ass back. When our d was done for...then they scored. It wasnt a straight up ass whooping. Plus we had opportunities to score and in red zone. Offense made mistakes.

    Same with cards game. Game didn't get out of hand until 3rd late. Arguably the 4th. Field goals made it closer with misses, but they hardly whooped our asses again.

    It was more of a beat your self then the opposing team imposing their will. Very winnable games. Both of them.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:06 pm
  • Here it comes in

    3........

    2........

    1........

    Image
    James in PA
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:19 pm
  • When did red M&M's come back?
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:35 pm
  • The Seahawks are 1-5 in conference games. This is the mark that is hurting them. They have 3 wins but only 1 of those is against an NFC opponent. That puts them behind in tiebreaking situations. This is another factor in why they have 4% chance of making the playoffs. Hopefully they win on Monday night (against a NFC opponent) to start their turn around. If they lose, you pretty much can count them out.

    What sucks even more is they are on their way to a top 10 pick in the 2022 NFL draft which they could desperately use and have gifted it to the Jets.
    hawkfan68
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:57 pm
  • hawkfan68 wrote:What sucks even more is they are on their way to a top 10 pick in the 2022 NFL draft which they could desperately use and have gifted it to the Jets.


    Currently with tie breakers etc I believe the hawks would have the 5th pick... i mean the jets would.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:02 pm
  • nutluck wrote:
    hawkfan68 wrote:What sucks even more is they are on their way to a top 10 pick in the 2022 NFL draft which they could desperately use and have gifted it to the Jets.


    Currently with tie breakers etc I believe the hawks would have the 5th pick... i mean the jets would.


    Etc. ?
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:25 pm
  • xray wrote:
    nutluck wrote:
    hawkfan68 wrote:What sucks even more is they are on their way to a top 10 pick in the 2022 NFL draft which they could desperately use and have gifted it to the Jets.


    Currently with tie breakers etc I believe the hawks would have the 5th pick... i mean the jets would.


    Etc. ?

    tie breakers and team records
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:20 pm
  • jamescasey1124 wrote:Negative. Pack barely scored until late 3rd then beat us down with a big ass back. When our d was done for...then they scored. It wasnt a straight up ass whooping. Plus we had opportunities to score and in red zone. Offense made mistakes.

    Same with cards game. Game didn't get out of hand until 3rd late. Arguably the 4th. Field goals made it closer with misses, but they hardly whooped our asses again.

    It was more of a beat your self then the opposing team imposing their will. Very winnable games. Both of them.


    You can put lipstick on a pig and it's still a pig. We got beat by two scores in one game, three scores in the other, dominated in the statistical department in both. But if you want to put your "positive" spin on it, then be my guest. But no amount of positive spin is going to change our record, and as Bill Parcells once said, you are what your record says you are.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:13 am
  • We can win out the rest of the season, it may not be enough to make the playoff. But it's entirely possible to win the rest of the games.

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    toffee
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:38 pm
  • toffee wrote:We can win out the rest of the season, it may not be enough to make the playoff. But it's entirely possible to win the rest of the games.

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    Win tomorrow and 1 back of wc.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:39 pm
  • toffee wrote:We can win out the rest of the season, it may not be enough to make the playoff. But it's entirely possible to win the rest of the games.

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    Win tomorrow and 1 back of wc.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:39 am
  • It's just too bad they gave away so many games this year. Last year, winning close games was the norm.
    Complete opposite in 2021.
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:04 am
  • Is this you, OP? :P

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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:47 am
  • ^^^^^^^^

    Nice!!!
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Re: Seattle can still make the playoffs!
Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:02 am
  • Our actual chances are bound to be higher than that, probably somewhere around 6%.

    538 gives each team an ELO and then runs a Monte Carlo where they play the season out a large number of times and teams win or lose each game based on randomness, the difference in ELOs, and home field advantage. The percentage assigned to each team is based on how many simulations they made the playoffs compared to the total, so perhaps they did 10,000 runs over the remaining season and the Seahawks made the playoffs 421 times.

    The problem here is that they are limited to using current ELO ratings, and that makes the remaining simulation only reasonable if they are all independent events going forwards. That is decidedly not true in football, where teams go on streaks for causative reasons such as key injuries or having parts of their schemes figured out. The way that you would actually want to do this is to re-calculate future ELO ratings after each fictional week based on what you observed to with some kind of correction factor for how likely upsets were to be random or based on an ongoing factor. That's too much arm waving for 538 and so they stick with a simplified version, but it means they overrate favorites and underrate underdogs as a result.

    To look at a specific example, the Cowboys are "85% likely to make the playoffs" because they are #9 in ELO and play a lot of teams with a much lower rank. They are at the Saints on Thursday where they are favored to win 64% of the time. In the 36% of occasions where they end up losing, some of those will be due to bad luck such as unlucky bounces, good/poor guesswork, and officiating calls. However, some may be because key players go out with serious injuries, or they get exposed in some manner that future teams will take advantage of. In that case their chance of winning in weeks 14-17 drops across the board because they are dependent events; perhaps the Cowboys could end up as underdogs in all of those weeks. The 85% figure doesn't account for that possibility.
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