Russ benched

[OrangeGravy]

meh it feels like everyone cherry picks this to fit their narrative. Sure in volume stats Denver is low. efficiency stats they’re much higher. I think Russ and Geno are very close in EPA. He’s also made some incredible touchdowns, Game winning drives(as has Geno too) and his EPA actually goes up late in games which could point to a play calling early in games and matches the eye test too. He will never run a conventional offense that is true, and Stidham will do better in this regard. But this is always painted as a massive flaw of Wilson’s by default which is odd. Lamar won’t either but most love his game. Kap didn’t either but he was good enough to get to a SB. Vick didn’t, Cam didn’t, Hurts etc.

You said “‘Most stats that show perfamnce are bottom 6-8 which isn’t true. The ones you’ve decided do that guy that’s subjective and anything that doesn’t fit that narrative is discarded like passer rating, EPA, TD/Int numbers etc. how about points per game? Denver is higher than Seattle.

Again not trying to be snarky and I enjoy your thoughts on this topic but I think we’re all a little guilty of cherry picking stats to support our priors.

One can either play or they can't. Some stats elude to effectiveness playing a position and others elude to fantasy football value

 

[knownone]

meh it feels like everyone cherry picks this to fit their narrative. Sure in volume stats Denver is low. efficiency stats they’re much higher. I think Russ and Geno are very close in EPA. He’s also made some incredible touchdowns, Game winning drives(as has Geno too) and his EPA actually goes up late in games which could point to a play calling early in games and matches the eye test too. He will never run a conventional offense that is true, and Stidham will do better in this regard. But this is always painted as a massive flaw of Wilson’s by default which is odd. Lamar won’t either but most love his game. Kap didn’t either but he was good enough to get to a SB. Vick didn’t, Cam didn’t, Hurts etc.

You said “‘Most stats that show perfamnce are bottom 6-8 which isn’t true. The ones you’ve decided do that guy that’s subjective and anything that doesn’t fit that narrative is discarded like passer rating, EPA, TD/Int numbers etc. how about points per game? Denver is higher than Seattle.

Again not trying to be snarky and I enjoy your thoughts on this topic but I think we’re all a little guilty of cherry picking stats to support our priors.

What website are you getting your numbers from? That might be a big factor in how you view the situation vs. others. For example, ESPN's numbers, which tend to factor in game situations and win probability, are not kind to Russell.

 

[Lagartixa]

This is why numbers are dangerous with this sport. They don't tell the full story. There's no "times he refused to throw the ball to an open receiver to escape an imaginary pass rusher" statistic, or "amount of organizational doom caused" statistic. We can only condense so much into one easily-tracked number when it comes to football.

And even so, Wilson has been marginally better than Smith at completion percentage and perceptibly better at avoiding interceptions.
Smith has been marginally better than Wilson at ANY/A and much better at success rate, (low) sack rate, air yards per completion (i.e., Wilson's throwing checkdowns to RBs to keep his completion percentage and passer rating high, while Smith is running an offense), avoiding fumbles (10 for Wilson in 938 snaps, four for Smith in 802 snaps), QBR, DYAR, and DVOA.

You've gotta be wearing Wilson's-colon-colored glasses to say that Wilson has had "better numbers" than Smith.

 

[pittpnthrs]

That depends on what stats you are looking at because most stats that reflect the performance of the offense under Russ are bottom 6 to 8 in the league. But Russ and Roger's aren't going to post thise. They'll just let the media run with the conspiracy theory so that Russ can land softly in his next starting spot where this whole deal can play out all over again.

Just the QB stats in which Russ has been better than Geno in almost all categories.

 

[keasley45]

E

Just the QB stats in which Russ has been better than Geno in almost all categories.

Football isnt just about td to int ratio. Dan Marino's was 1.67. Joe Montana's was 1.96. Peyton Manning, 2.15. Troy Aikman was lower than Marino.

Colin Kaepernicks was 2.46

These are career numbers.

And when Jameis Winston played for SP his first year starting, his int rate was better than 4.0.


Teddy Bridgewater has a completion percentage of 66.4. Russ's is 64.7. Joe Montanas is 64.2

Are we going to draw conclusions from that?

Look at yards per play.
Look at 3rd downs
Look at pass success rate
Sustained drives
Yards per attempt yards per completion

Russ fans refuse to talk about those stats. But those stats are why he is on the bench. They are why he was traded in the first place. They are why, in part, Hackett lost his job. And they will 200% without a doubt follow him wherever he goes, because they always have (ypp and ypa the exception - but when those numbers go up, its because he's playing hero ball)

Those stats are just as ,if not more indicative of a quarterback's performance. And it has been shown that Russ's comp and TD #s are anomalous when taken into context with the rest of those metrics. There isnt a single qb in NFL history that has posted the stats in the categories he shines in, and been so middling to poor in the others that really matter. Its just Russ. That's fact.

Of the contemporary QBs who have stats in the same strata as russ in comp percentage and tds / ints, none of them led offenses that took sacks at the rate he did, were as poor on 3rd down passing, passing success rate, any many others.

 

[Scout]

My opinion based on various games of the Broncos this past two seasons I have watched is that R. Wilson can actually run the plays he is told. As evidenced by the lopsided points scored in the first half of football games this season and last season by the Broncos, With SP and Hackett they do run scripted plays to start out games, and the Broncos have been good offensively in the first half of games scoring points in both seasons.

Where there is a common trend between two different coaching staffs is when the Broncos offense disappear in the third quarter of games. The defense was more stout last season but this season the defense seems to have become more opportunistic and was able to shorten the field for an offense that operates in spurts that are mostly in the first half.

That Patriots matchup was a microcosm of what happens when RW doesn't have scripted plays to run and defenses adapt after half time. Also by the time the Broncos do adapt they open up the offense and RW tends to have improved numbers in the 4th quarter of games.

I can't really blame it all on RW based on what I saw against the Patriots in that third quarter. Granted the Broncos struggled to block Barmore but the horizontal plays, screens, and obvious run plays were to easy for the Patriots to sniff out. Given that the Patriots injuries in the secondary the Broncos should have dialed up some seem beaters or go routes early on in that third quarter. That is all on SP in that third quarter play calling was bad. That is because he knows that RW can not run a horizontal styled offense that well as that was the cornerstone of how Hackett runs his offense and it was a problem last season. I think they finished that third quarter with negative yardage which is hard to fathom.

Once the Broncos started to dial up passes downfield the Patriots started to back off and then RW was able to complete a crosser to Jeudy as well.

I think RW does follow what SP wants to do for the most part to start out games. No different with Hackett but when the 4th quarter rolls around that is when Russ goes off script. Granted he did run for some good gains to move the chains but he also missed some open players for larger gains and I think that is where SP probably is fuming about. Also as SP has noted you can not run an offense four quarter using an empty backfield and throwing deep often. Passes beyond 35 yard have a lesser chance to be completed even by a QB like Russ who is very accurate downfield. That will wear out your defense fast if your offense can not move the chains consistently so SP is thinking big picture as a HC more so than an OC in that you need to play complimentary football. Also protecting your QB is important which is why SP doesn't use empty backfield often.

My observation is that RW doesn't do enough audibles at the line to counter what he is seeing on the field. This may seem like a lose/lose scenario for RW because you have one side saying he is doing too much on his own and not staying on script. And then the other side saying he is too robotic and doesn't do enough to audible.

The reality is that RW is very good at improvising post snap but his inability to audible pre snap to counter defenses is really where the Broncos have failed in third quarter scoring the last two seasons.

RW is who is at this point in time but he was never worth the contract he signed. Are the Broncos that much better under RW compraed to Lock or Bridgewater? Not really so it isn't all on RW as that team thought they were close by adding RW. But that roster had flaws before RW arrived. And the roster still has flaws with SP arrival and being saddled with the RW contract. SP added two new OL in the off season and will probably do more retooling on offense as the rookie Mims is the only WR that is consistently good. And the Broncos will be adding a pass caching utility back to really make SP offense function.

 

[bigskydoc]

My opinion based on various games of the Broncos this past two seasons I have watched is that R. Wilson can actually run the plays he is told. As evidenced by the lopsided points scored in the first half of football games this season and last season by the Broncos, With SP and Hackett they do run scripted plays to start out games, and the Broncos have been good offensively in the first half of games scoring points in both seasons.

Where there is a common trend between two different coaching staffs is when the Broncos offense disappear in the third quarter of games. The defense was more stout last season but this season the defense seems to have become more opportunistic and was able to shorten the field for an offense that operates in spurts that are mostly in the first half.

That Patriots matchup was a microcosm of what happens when RW doesn't have scripted plays to run and defenses adapt after half time. Also by the time the Broncos do adapt they open up the offense and RW tends to have improved numbers in the 4th quarter of games.

I can't really blame it all on RW based on what I saw against the Patriots in that third quarter. Granted the Broncos struggled to block Barmore but the horizontal plays, screens, and obvious run plays were to easy for the Patriots to sniff out. Given that the Patriots injuries in the secondary the Broncos should have dialed up some seem beaters or go routes early on in that third quarter. That is all on SP in that third quarter play calling was bad. That is because he knows that RW can not run a horizontal styled offense that well as that was the cornerstone of how Hackett runs his offense and it was a problem last season. I think they finished that third quarter with negative yardage which is hard to fathom.

Once the Broncos started to dial up passes downfield the Patriots started to back off and then RW was able to complete a crosser to Jeudy as well.

I think RW does follow what SP wants to do for the most part to start out games. No different with Hackett but when the 4th quarter rolls around that is when Russ goes off script. Granted he did run for some good gains to move the chains but he also missed some open players for larger gains and I think that is where SP probably is fuming about. Also as SP has noted you can not run an offense four quarter using an empty backfield and throwing deep often. Passes beyond 35 yard have a lesser chance to be completed even by a QB like Russ who is very accurate downfield. That will wear out your defense fast if your offense can not move the chains consistently so SP is thinking big picture as a HC more so than an OC in that you need to play complimentary football. Also protecting your QB is important which is why SP doesn't use empty backfield often.

My observation is that RW doesn't do enough audibles at the line to counter what he is seeing on the field. This may seem like a lose/lose scenario for RW because you have one side saying he is doing too much on his own and not staying on script. And then the other side saying he is too robotic and doesn't do enough to audible.

The reality is that RW is very good at improvising post snap but his inability to audible pre snap to counter defenses is really where the Broncos have failed in third quarter scoring the last two seasons.

RW is who is at this point in time but he was never worth the contract he signed. Are the Broncos that much better under RW compraed to Lock or Bridgewater? Not really so it isn't all on RW as that team thought they were close by adding RW. But that roster had flaws before RW arrived. And the roster still has flaws with SP arrival and being saddled with the RW contract. SP added two new OL in the off season and will probably do more retooling on offense as the rookie Mims is the only WR that is consistently good. And the Broncos will be adding a pass caching utility back to really make SP offense function.

Excellent post. I’ll just add that it seems like Russ rarely has enough play clock time at the line to read the defense and audible. That dates back to his time here.

From what I’m hearing, this is likely on Russ taking too long to figure out the play call from the sideline, and communicate it in the huddle.

This may also partly explain why he looks so much better during the scripted series. Everyone already knows the plays and protection, and he doesn’t have to communicate the play call to the team.

 

[Scout]

Excellent post. I’ll just add that it seems like Russ rarely has enough play clock time at the line to read the defense and audible. That dates back to his time here.

From what I’m hearing, this is likely on Russ taking too long to figure out the play call from the sideline, and communicate it in the huddle.

This may also partly explain why he looks so much better during the scripted series. Everyone already knows the plays and protection, and he doesn’t have to communicate the play call to the team.

Well that is the thing in that SP wants you to be lined up at the line ASAP so you have to time to read a defense pre snap or even audible. RW takes a more methodical and calm approach by going with the flow of the game while SP wants to dictate the pace of the game. SP wants his offense run with a sense of urgency while RW is more of a methodical old school approach.

 

[bigskydoc]

Methodical, or slow to process? Seems that his issues of getting the play off in time pre-date his time with SP

 

[Scout]

It is a factor but I think that RW looks at it as one scoring drive at a time. Brady and others are no different when it comes to leading come backs as it is about being methodical to cut down a deficit.

During the broadcast of the Broncos vs Patriots game it was noted that the Broncos burned a lot of clock on that first scoring drive and 2 point conversion. The Broncos picked it up a bit on that second TD and 2 point conversion as time was running short though.

 

[LastRideOut]

Chargers are going to be shocked today that Denver isn't going to go 3'n'out over and over during the 2nd and 3rd quarter today. Broncos might actually move the ball down the field methodically in all 4 quarters, instead of big chunk plays in the last 2:00.

 

[LastRideOut]

PFT is now speculating that maybe the threat to bench wasn't as overt as Wilson made it out to be, as a possibility.

If Broncos threatened to bench Russell Wilson without contract change, why didn't they?

The story of the week still has a couple of unanswered questions.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Cyrus12]

You'd believe he can run the offense better if you watched him in preseason. He didn't light things up (it was preseason), but in some of his last series, he showed that he's got something different than Russ... in a way that Payton will likely embrace.

I actually thought Stidham should of won the starting job out of pre season. I think they had to play Russ due to the trade and contract. Fans would of been luvid.. at least every Bronco fan out there knows now this is the right move. Russ has more seahawks fans defending him than Bronco fans...kinda sad really after he pretty much ruined a possible dynasty here.

 

[IndyHawk]

meh it feels like everyone cherry picks this to fit their narrative. Sure in volume stats Denver is low. efficiency stats they’re much higher. I think Russ and Geno are very close in EPA. He’s also made some incredible touchdowns, Game winning drives(as has Geno too) and his EPA actually goes up late in games which could point to a play calling early in games and matches the eye test too. He will never run a conventional offense that is true, and Stidham will do better in this regard. But this is always painted as a massive flaw of Wilson’s by default which is odd. Lamar won’t either but most love his game. Kap didn’t either but he was good enough to get to a SB. Vick didn’t, Cam didn’t, Hurts etc.

You said “‘Most stats that show perfamnce are bottom 6-8 which isn’t true. The ones you’ve decided do that guy that’s subjective and anything that doesn’t fit that narrative is discarded like passer rating, EPA, TD/Int numbers etc. how about points per game? Denver is higher than Seattle.

Again not trying to be snarky and I enjoy your thoughts on this topic but I think we’re all a little guilty of cherry picking stats to support our priors.

Good point and trust me Lamar's game,Vick,Cam,Kyler and Hurts do/did not impress me from a QB
standpoint.
Outstanding runners with strong arms but erratic passing skills - It's like a short cut.
Why learn everything when I can just run my way out of anything and create?
It works until they get injured or slower and most will never adapt to losing running.
Only one comes to mind and that is Randall Cunningham.
I get it's exciting for many but you don't have much if that is taken away and not to
mention at a higher risk.

 

[Ozzy]

I’m using this site which a ton of stat/film guys site as where they go to. Link is in the corner. But I also use the eyeball test. I don’t think many people have watched a whole lot of Russ games based on some of the takes that keep getting repeated in here. Not singling anyone out or being a jerk but it’s obvious because some of these narratives are just flat out wrong. Russ is limited in a conventional offense sense for sure but stuff gets great exaggerated at times too

What website are you getting your numbers from? That might be a big factor in how you view the situation vs. others. For example, ESPN's numbers, which tend to factor in game situations and win probability, are not kind to Russell.

 

[pittpnthrs]

E

Football isnt just about td to int ratio. Dan Marino's was 1.67. Joe Montana's was 1.96. Peyton Manning, 2.15. Troy Aikman was lower than Marino.

Colin Kaepernicks was 2.46

These are career numbers.

And when Jameis Winston played for SP his first year starting, his int rate was better than 4.0.


Teddy Bridgewater has a completion percentage of 66.4. Russ's is 64.7. Joe Montanas is 64.2

Are we going to draw conclusions from that?

Look at yards per play.
Look at 3rd downs
Look at pass success rate
Sustained drives
Yards per attempt yards per completion

Russ fans refuse to talk about those stats. But those stats are why he is on the bench. They are why he was traded in the first place. They are why, in part, Hackett lost his job. And they will 200% without a doubt follow him wherever he goes, because they always have (ypp and ypa the exception - but when those numbers go up, its because he's playing hero ball)

Those stats are just as ,if not more indicative of a quarterback's performance. And it has been shown that Russ's comp and TD #s are anomalous when taken into context with the rest of those metrics. There isnt a single qb in NFL history that has posted the stats in the categories he shines in, and been so middling to poor in the others that really matter. Its just Russ. That's fact.

Of the contemporary QBs who have stats in the same strata as russ in comp percentage and tds / ints, none of them led offenses that took sacks at the rate he did, were as poor on 3rd down passing, passing success rate, any many others.

So stats are basically useless in telling the story. Cool. I expect you and everybody else to not bother posting anymore. Deal?

 

[Maelstrom787]

Uh ohhhhhh

 

[Ozzy]

Good point and trust me Lamar's game,Vick,Cam,Kyler and Hurts do/did not impress me from a QB
standpoint.
Outstanding runners with strong arms but erratic passing skills - It's like a short cut.
Why learn everything when I can just run my way out of anything and create?
It works until they get injured or slower and most will never adapt to losing running.
Only one comes to mind and that is Randall Cunningham.
I get it's exciting for many but you don't have much if that is taken away and not to
mention at a higher risk.

And it’s just not sustainable. I obviously thought Russ was better than you did but I also know that it’s not sustainable and while I also don’t think Russ has been as bad as others on here he’s not the same player for sure

 

[keasley45]

meh it feels like everyone cherry picks this to fit their narrative. Sure in volume stats Denver is low. efficiency stats they’re much higher. I think Russ and Geno are very close in EPA. He’s also made some incredible touchdowns, Game winning drives(as has Geno too) and his EPA actually goes up late in games which could point to a play calling early in games and matches the eye test too. He will never run a conventional offense that is true, and Stidham will do better in this regard. But this is always painted as a massive flaw of Wilson’s by default which is odd. Lamar won’t either but most love his game. Kap didn’t either but he was good enough to get to a SB. Vick didn’t, Cam didn’t, Hurts etc.

You said “‘Most stats that show perfamnce are bottom 6-8 which isn’t true. The ones you’ve decided do that guy that’s subjective and anything that doesn’t fit that narrative is discarded like passer rating, EPA, TD/Int numbers etc. how about points per game? Denver is higher than Seattle.

Again not trying to be snarky and I enjoy your thoughts on this topic but I think we’re all a little guilty of cherry picking stats to support our priors.

I actuslly didn't cherry pick anything. I picked from the metrics available that tie most directly to qb play in the offense on the site that I happened to be on (categorized at the bottom of that page). And i was turned onto to those from Denver fans who are frustrated with the ineptitude of their offense.

There are more qb specific stats like pass success rate which direclty correlate to the QB success within the context of a play down, guven the number of yards gained vs expected per down. That would be a pretty important stat, wouldn't it? Russ is 20th. (For comparison, Geno is 8th).

Yards per attempt? Important, no? Russ is 20th again, Geno 13th. This one important to note given this year we've seen a Russ playing largely on-script. It points to a qb throwing short, high percentage passes (hence the comp percentage).

Yards per catch? Russ is 22nd, Geno, 14th. Same as the above

Qbr, which of the 2 metrics is the better measure of overall qb performance (in my opinion) because it takes into account more factors... Russ is 21st. Geno 14th. Again. Do you have an idea how bad Russ has to be performing in categories other than TDs and completion percentage for his QBR to deviate by almost 50 points from his Rating?? (That variation is btw the largest in the league). Typically this year the deviation is around 30 to 35 when you look at the top passers, with a few outliers like Purdy because his rating is so high to begin with.

Net yards per attempt - Russ is 22nd, Geno 15th.

Agree that Geno is having a down year, but he's gone from good to average / good. Russ has gone from abysmal, to, when you take into account offensive performance, his QBR (which blends his shiney stats with his crap ones), average to below average.

Thats why the narrative that Russ is playing great or isn't a problem for Denver is what's cherrypicking. There's no other 'top' qb who has the swings he does from the handful of stats he's tops in, to those he's bottom 1/3rd or so in. And that is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt across mutliple stat lines and captured in his qbr. And it's a simple fact that if he's bottom 3rd in that many measures it can't NOT negatively impact his offense.

And again, this wasn't necessarily a Geno vs Russ argument as much as it was underscoring the metrics which show that the Denver offense is actually not good, and when its flashed, it hasnt done so within the context of the playcall - the reason why Russ was benched. It's great if he's had some great TD passes. He always does. He he also has comeback drives, sure but just as Payton himself said when asked whether he was happy with the comeback drive against the Pats. He responded that it wasn't sustainable because it was a bunch of empty set plays. That knock goes back to his Seattle days. Games that were made better by virtue of his tendency to make things up because he couldnt get things done in a sustainable, reliable way. its just the first time a coach has come out and said it.

When Wilson's 3rd down pass success rate is bottom half of the league for the vast majority of his career, what does that mean? Either he ALWAYS just has poor protection, poor receivers or a poor playcaller, or it's him. When you see his performance in QBR, Success Rate and some of the others I noted above when he's in a conventional offense (the first time hes been forced to play in such a way)and add them to his 3rd down pass rate, it's why he's benched and Geno isn't.

And Russ in a Russ aka unconventional offense? It's the reason he was traded in the first place. He'll get you yards, points (for a half), and highlights, but something to build around? Nope.

Good luck to anyone who picks him up.

 

[Palmegranite]

That was lots of words. To summarize for the lazy reader:

Geno good, Russ bad.