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10 Keys to a Seahawks Victory vs. the 49ers …
Those of you who have followed the Seahawks-49ers Preview Thread that I’ve posted on throughout the week have no doubt been able to glean several keys to victory for the Seahawks … and many different areas of weakness that they could very well exploit. For simplicity’s sake, I decided to post those keys to victory here … and summarize other important keys & key stats that I’ve elaborated on throughout the week …
Key #1: Strike first, strike hard, no mercy sir.
The Seahawks and the 12th Man came out with an attitude ready to drive this 49ers team in to the ground on the 1st series of the game. The defense absolutely smothered the Niner offense right off the bat, and the offense was efficient, scoring early and often. The Hawks beat the 49ers in to submission in this game by setting the tone early and never looking back.
Key #2: Make the Big Play.
It sounds cliché, but the Seahawks won this game because of timely made big plays, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Marshawn Lynch rumbles 24 yards for the Hawks 1st score … Doug Baldwin hauls in a key 43 yard reception on Seattle’s 2nd scoring drive … and Red Bryant blocks a punt that Richard Sherman returns for a touchdown to name a few.
Key #3: Be Stingy
As always, dominating the Time of Possession will be crucial if the Seahawks are going to knock off this team on Sunday. And they did exactly that last time ...
Time of Possession
Seahawks … 35:09
49ers ……... 24:51
Though it's encouraging to see the kind of numbers that Russell Wilson generated in Carolina, to win this one I'd argue that they need to unleash the Beast and let him rampage in order to keep Kaepernick and that 49er attack off the field as much as possible.
Key #4: Single Point Perspective.
As noted above, the Seahawks, both through a combination of hard nosed defense and lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine, forced this 49er Team to abandon the run very early in the 2nd Quarter. That (of course) allowed the Hawks offense to be able to tee off, as they knew San Francisco was forced to throw the ball. Though I don’t expect San Fran to abandon the run this time (in fact I expect them to look to make a major commitment to it) … forcing the 49ers in to long down and distance situations should be the goal for this ball hawking opportunistic secondary.
Key #5: Feed the Beast
Asking if Pete Carroll wants to get the run game going this week is a bit like asking Scooby and Shaggy if they want food. Of course he does and history clearly shows that Marshawn Lynch has had … and will continue to have success against the 49ers on Sunday. Marshawn Lynch has had 3 straight 100 yard games against the 49ers dating back to December 24, 2011. Over that same time span, the 49ers defense has allowed just (2) 100 yard rushers in those 21 games.
The 49ers defense allowed opposing NFL runners to average just 3.6 yards/carry. Marshawn Lynch averaged 4.8 against the Niners.
According to Pro Football Focus, Marshawn Lynch ended last season with 63 broken tackles – 4th most in the NFL.
Pro Football Focus also revealed that last Sunday the 49ers missed 7 Tackles. They averaged 3.5 missed tackles/game last season.
Feeding the Beast early and often is something that the Seahawks coaching staff knows is critical, as Seattle’s Offensive Line looked overmatched at times against a very good Front 7 of the Panthers. Those big birds up front want to show that THEY are the ones who rule the roost.
Key #6: Don’t get Gored
Though most of the talk this week has focused on Anquan Boldin and finding the way to stop him, it shouldn’t be forgotten that San Francisco (like Seattle) is a RUN FIRST offense.
In Week 7 last year the Seahawks came in to their matchup with the 49ers as the 3rd Best Rush Defense in the NFL, having given up an average of only 70 yards per game. San Francisco proceeded to run over the Hawks at Candlestick by logging 175 yards on the ground … as Frank Gore mauled the Seahawks for 131 yards on only 16 carries.
In their Week 16 (42-13 blowout of the Niners) the Hawks obviously made the necessary adjustments, but lost in the shuffle of that whooping is the fact that the 49ers still managed to gain yardage on the ground at a fairly good clip …
The 49ers gained 82 yards on 19 carries (4.3 yards/carry).
Kaepernick gained 31 yards on 7 carries (4.4 yards/carry) …
Frank Gore gained 28 yards on 6 carries (4.7 yards/carry) …
LaMichael James gained 15 yards on 4 carries (3.8 yards/carry) …
Anthony Dixon gained 8 yards on 2 carries (4.0 yards/carry) …
Stoning the run, first and foremost, will be priority #1 for the defense this week.
Key #7: Flush the Pheasant
After Week 1, seemingly all the national pundits have jumped on the Kaepernick bandwagon. And admittedly, throwing 408 yards against the Packers will certainly do that. Kaepernick looked as comfy back there in the pocket as Griffey used to look in his lazy boy back in the day. And like Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick has been touted as being an excellent QB on the move. But is that really true? Greg Cosell did an interesting study in which he took a look at QB’s and how they performed both inside and outside the pocket. Here are the results …
[tdo=3]2012 Total QBR Ratings …[/tdo]
Source:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/85661/cosells-thoughts-plus-qb-pocket-stats
The numbers clearly show that Russell Wilson on the run still performs at a near Pro Bowl Level. Colin Kaepernick on the other hand … not so much.
Pro Football Focus noted some interesting stats on Kaepernick under pressure in the Green Bay game last week that continue to highlight that same pattern …
Getting consistent pressure on Kaepernick will be huge in this game … and the numbers indicate that’s possible. Believe it or not, in 2012 Football Outsiders had San Francisco’s Offensive Line ranked #29 overall in terms of their pass protection. Well, a geeked up Hawks defense and a certifiably insane crowd are a bad combination for any offensive line.
Key #8: Be Golden Against Boldin
Mike Holmgren was on KJR-am earlier this, sharing his thoughts about Anquan Boldin and how to stop him. For those who might have missed that interview, you can go to the Seahawks-49ers Preview Thread and go to page 2 to check it out for yourself. Hauling in 13 passes for 206 yards and 3 TD’s against (what appears to be) a fairly good Green Bay secondary will certainty get defensive coordinators working, that’s for sure. If you’re thinking that Seattle will merely match Richard Sherman up against him, think again.
Pro Football Focus had this to say on him …
So, the 49ers will slide him all over the field … and especially will probably look to slide Boldin inside A LOT in this game. That means, that he’s going to find himself matched up against Walter Thurmond in the slot more times than not. Walter Thurmond is one of those guys that Pete Carroll needs to pull aside and say, “We need a big game from you.” Anquan Boldin is a very physical player – something that Walter Thurmond isn’t overly noted for. It will be very interesting to see how Seattle chooses to defend Boldin (and Vernon Davis) this week.
Key #9: Let Russell Flex Some Muscle
Though much of the game plan will be focused on getting the run game going, the numbers clearly indicate that there are points to be had through the air.
Very few are talking about it … but the San Francisco Defense has been showing some real chinks in the armor as of late. Specifically, the secondary of the Niners looks like it could be a real Achilles Heel. Pro Football Focus revealed that the 49ers corners could be in real trouble.
Lost in the shuffle of last Sunday was the fact that the 49ers Defense allowed 385 yards of offense and 28 points.
The following is a breakdown of how the 49er corners performed last week against Green Bay according to PFF…
What should make 49er fans particularly concerned is that the Niners KNEW that the Packers were going to be passing the ball (as the game was far from decided) and STILL couldn’t stop the Packer Offense. But, that’s only 1 game after all.
Let’s take a look at how the 49ers Pass Defense has fared over their last 7 games …
[tdo=10]Last 7 Games PASSING Performances Against the 49ers Defense[/tdo]
Over their last 7 games (on average) teams are completing 62.36% of their passes against the 49ers defense. The 49ers defense has given up (on average) 301.71 yards through the air … an average of 2.43 Passing TD’s/Game … while only intercepting an average of 1 pass/game.
On average, that works out to an average QB Rating against of 100.57 that the 49er defense is allowing.
In terms of total defense, over the past 7 games the 49ers defense has allowed a grand total of 206 points –an average of 29.42 Pts/Game allowed.
And over their past 4 games, the 49ers have given up an average of 387 yards per game … and an average of 27.4 points/game.
In other words, Russell Wilson could very well light up the sky in front of a National Audience on Sunday Night Football …
Key #10: You ‘Da Man
As always, the 12th Man will be instrumental in this game.
Since 2005, there have been more False Starts recorded at Century Link Field (121 or an average of 2.36 False Starts/Game) than in any other stadium in the NFL. With the 49ers coming in to town, the crowd doesn’t need any more motivation that that
But, this week the 12th Man actually got some bulletin board material …
On Wednesday, Colin Kaepernick spoke to the media. He was asked about the 12th Man and how much of a factor that played. Here is what he had to say ...
Source:
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2013/sep/12/hawks-speak-easy/
49er Back-up Running Back Anthony Dixon followed that up with the following message on Twitter …
You know, when you mess with a hornet’s nest you really gotta ask yourself if you’re ready to get stung.
According to Guinness, the World Record for crowd noise ever recorded was 131.76 during a Turkish soccer match in 2011. The media noted back in July that Seahawk fans had it as their goal to break that record against the 49ers this Sunday. Personally, I’m thinking that Kaepernick and the Niners will be even less efficient in the huddle than they were last year.
Bold Prediction ...
Though few are talking about it, the 49ers have some definite weaknesses that I believe will be exposed in this game. Most are envisioning this as being a close contest. Personally, I'm not seeing that.
Seahawks 30
49ers 17
Those of you who have followed the Seahawks-49ers Preview Thread that I’ve posted on throughout the week have no doubt been able to glean several keys to victory for the Seahawks … and many different areas of weakness that they could very well exploit. For simplicity’s sake, I decided to post those keys to victory here … and summarize other important keys & key stats that I’ve elaborated on throughout the week …
Key #1: Strike first, strike hard, no mercy sir.
The Seahawks and the 12th Man came out with an attitude ready to drive this 49ers team in to the ground on the 1st series of the game. The defense absolutely smothered the Niner offense right off the bat, and the offense was efficient, scoring early and often. The Hawks beat the 49ers in to submission in this game by setting the tone early and never looking back.
Key #2: Make the Big Play.
It sounds cliché, but the Seahawks won this game because of timely made big plays, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Marshawn Lynch rumbles 24 yards for the Hawks 1st score … Doug Baldwin hauls in a key 43 yard reception on Seattle’s 2nd scoring drive … and Red Bryant blocks a punt that Richard Sherman returns for a touchdown to name a few.
Key #3: Be Stingy
As always, dominating the Time of Possession will be crucial if the Seahawks are going to knock off this team on Sunday. And they did exactly that last time ...
Time of Possession
Seahawks … 35:09
49ers ……... 24:51
Though it's encouraging to see the kind of numbers that Russell Wilson generated in Carolina, to win this one I'd argue that they need to unleash the Beast and let him rampage in order to keep Kaepernick and that 49er attack off the field as much as possible.
Key #4: Single Point Perspective.
As noted above, the Seahawks, both through a combination of hard nosed defense and lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine, forced this 49er Team to abandon the run very early in the 2nd Quarter. That (of course) allowed the Hawks offense to be able to tee off, as they knew San Francisco was forced to throw the ball. Though I don’t expect San Fran to abandon the run this time (in fact I expect them to look to make a major commitment to it) … forcing the 49ers in to long down and distance situations should be the goal for this ball hawking opportunistic secondary.
Key #5: Feed the Beast
Asking if Pete Carroll wants to get the run game going this week is a bit like asking Scooby and Shaggy if they want food. Of course he does and history clearly shows that Marshawn Lynch has had … and will continue to have success against the 49ers on Sunday. Marshawn Lynch has had 3 straight 100 yard games against the 49ers dating back to December 24, 2011. Over that same time span, the 49ers defense has allowed just (2) 100 yard rushers in those 21 games.
The 49ers defense allowed opposing NFL runners to average just 3.6 yards/carry. Marshawn Lynch averaged 4.8 against the Niners.
According to Pro Football Focus, Marshawn Lynch ended last season with 63 broken tackles – 4th most in the NFL.
Pro Football Focus also revealed that last Sunday the 49ers missed 7 Tackles. They averaged 3.5 missed tackles/game last season.
Feeding the Beast early and often is something that the Seahawks coaching staff knows is critical, as Seattle’s Offensive Line looked overmatched at times against a very good Front 7 of the Panthers. Those big birds up front want to show that THEY are the ones who rule the roost.
Key #6: Don’t get Gored
Though most of the talk this week has focused on Anquan Boldin and finding the way to stop him, it shouldn’t be forgotten that San Francisco (like Seattle) is a RUN FIRST offense.
In Week 7 last year the Seahawks came in to their matchup with the 49ers as the 3rd Best Rush Defense in the NFL, having given up an average of only 70 yards per game. San Francisco proceeded to run over the Hawks at Candlestick by logging 175 yards on the ground … as Frank Gore mauled the Seahawks for 131 yards on only 16 carries.
In their Week 16 (42-13 blowout of the Niners) the Hawks obviously made the necessary adjustments, but lost in the shuffle of that whooping is the fact that the 49ers still managed to gain yardage on the ground at a fairly good clip …
The 49ers gained 82 yards on 19 carries (4.3 yards/carry).
Kaepernick gained 31 yards on 7 carries (4.4 yards/carry) …
Frank Gore gained 28 yards on 6 carries (4.7 yards/carry) …
LaMichael James gained 15 yards on 4 carries (3.8 yards/carry) …
Anthony Dixon gained 8 yards on 2 carries (4.0 yards/carry) …
Stoning the run, first and foremost, will be priority #1 for the defense this week.
Key #7: Flush the Pheasant
After Week 1, seemingly all the national pundits have jumped on the Kaepernick bandwagon. And admittedly, throwing 408 yards against the Packers will certainly do that. Kaepernick looked as comfy back there in the pocket as Griffey used to look in his lazy boy back in the day. And like Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick has been touted as being an excellent QB on the move. But is that really true? Greg Cosell did an interesting study in which he took a look at QB’s and how they performed both inside and outside the pocket. Here are the results …
| Quarterback | Inside the Pocket | Outside the Pocket |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 77.0 | 62.5 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 83.0 | 15.6 |
Source:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/85661/cosells-thoughts-plus-qb-pocket-stats
The numbers clearly show that Russell Wilson on the run still performs at a near Pro Bowl Level. Colin Kaepernick on the other hand … not so much.
Pro Football Focus noted some interesting stats on Kaepernick under pressure in the Green Bay game last week that continue to highlight that same pattern …
The numbers clearly show that if you pressure Colin Kaepernick and get him on the move that he isn’t nearly as effective and he makes mistakes. Kaepernick had 9 fumbles last year … 7 of which were on plays in which he chose to run the ball.
Getting consistent pressure on Kaepernick will be huge in this game … and the numbers indicate that’s possible. Believe it or not, in 2012 Football Outsiders had San Francisco’s Offensive Line ranked #29 overall in terms of their pass protection. Well, a geeked up Hawks defense and a certifiably insane crowd are a bad combination for any offensive line.
Key #8: Be Golden Against Boldin
Mike Holmgren was on KJR-am earlier this, sharing his thoughts about Anquan Boldin and how to stop him. For those who might have missed that interview, you can go to the Seahawks-49ers Preview Thread and go to page 2 to check it out for yourself. Hauling in 13 passes for 206 yards and 3 TD’s against (what appears to be) a fairly good Green Bay secondary will certainty get defensive coordinators working, that’s for sure. If you’re thinking that Seattle will merely match Richard Sherman up against him, think again.
Pro Football Focus had this to say on him …
So, the 49ers will slide him all over the field … and especially will probably look to slide Boldin inside A LOT in this game. That means, that he’s going to find himself matched up against Walter Thurmond in the slot more times than not. Walter Thurmond is one of those guys that Pete Carroll needs to pull aside and say, “We need a big game from you.” Anquan Boldin is a very physical player – something that Walter Thurmond isn’t overly noted for. It will be very interesting to see how Seattle chooses to defend Boldin (and Vernon Davis) this week.
Key #9: Let Russell Flex Some Muscle
Though much of the game plan will be focused on getting the run game going, the numbers clearly indicate that there are points to be had through the air.
Very few are talking about it … but the San Francisco Defense has been showing some real chinks in the armor as of late. Specifically, the secondary of the Niners looks like it could be a real Achilles Heel. Pro Football Focus revealed that the 49ers corners could be in real trouble.
Lost in the shuffle of last Sunday was the fact that the 49ers Defense allowed 385 yards of offense and 28 points.
The following is a breakdown of how the 49er corners performed last week against Green Bay according to PFF…
What should make 49er fans particularly concerned is that the Niners KNEW that the Packers were going to be passing the ball (as the game was far from decided) and STILL couldn’t stop the Packer Offense. But, that’s only 1 game after all.
Let’s take a look at how the 49ers Pass Defense has fared over their last 7 games …
| Team | Date | QB | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Comp% | Pass Yards | Pass TD’s | INT’s | QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 12/16/12 | T. Brady | 36 | 65 | 55.4% | 443 | 1 | 2 | 68.9 |
| Seahawks | 12/23/12 | R. Wilson | 15 | 21 | 71.4% | 171 | 4 | 1 | 115.3 |
| Cardinals | 12/30/12 | B. Hoyer | 19 | 34 | 55.9% | 225 | 1 | 1 | 73.8 |
| Packers | 1/12/13 | A. Rodgers | 26 | 39 | 66.7% | 257 | 2 | 1 | 91.5 |
| Falcons | 1/20/13 | M. Ryan | 30 | 42 | 71.4% | 396 | 3 | 1 | 127.7 |
| Ravens | 2/3/13 | J. Flacco | 22 | 33 | 66.7% | 287 | 3 | 0 | 124.2 |
| Packers | 9/8/13 | A. Rodgers | 21 | 37 | 56.8% | 333 | 3 | 1 | 102.6 |
Over their last 7 games (on average) teams are completing 62.36% of their passes against the 49ers defense. The 49ers defense has given up (on average) 301.71 yards through the air … an average of 2.43 Passing TD’s/Game … while only intercepting an average of 1 pass/game.
On average, that works out to an average QB Rating against of 100.57 that the 49er defense is allowing.
In terms of total defense, over the past 7 games the 49ers defense has allowed a grand total of 206 points –an average of 29.42 Pts/Game allowed.
And over their past 4 games, the 49ers have given up an average of 387 yards per game … and an average of 27.4 points/game.
In other words, Russell Wilson could very well light up the sky in front of a National Audience on Sunday Night Football …
Key #10: You ‘Da Man
As always, the 12th Man will be instrumental in this game.
Since 2005, there have been more False Starts recorded at Century Link Field (121 or an average of 2.36 False Starts/Game) than in any other stadium in the NFL. With the 49ers coming in to town, the crowd doesn’t need any more motivation that that
But, this week the 12th Man actually got some bulletin board material …
On Wednesday, Colin Kaepernick spoke to the media. He was asked about the 12th Man and how much of a factor that played. Here is what he had to say ...
Source:
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2013/sep/12/hawks-speak-easy/
49er Back-up Running Back Anthony Dixon followed that up with the following message on Twitter …
You know, when you mess with a hornet’s nest you really gotta ask yourself if you’re ready to get stung.
According to Guinness, the World Record for crowd noise ever recorded was 131.76 during a Turkish soccer match in 2011. The media noted back in July that Seahawk fans had it as their goal to break that record against the 49ers this Sunday. Personally, I’m thinking that Kaepernick and the Niners will be even less efficient in the huddle than they were last year.
Bold Prediction ...
Though few are talking about it, the 49ers have some definite weaknesses that I believe will be exposed in this game. Most are envisioning this as being a close contest. Personally, I'm not seeing that.
Seahawks 30
49ers 17
