Anyone else surprised we are 2.5 pt underdogs?

[JMR]

I am not much of a betting man but I am really surprised that we are the underdog in this game. I think we match up well with the Donkeys and if I were a betting man would jump on this one. Anyone else surprised?

Anything 2.9 and below in Vegas is basically a push. I would bet they are just as "educated-ly" confused handicapping this game as everyone else is. I haven't found one argument one way or another that would hint at the outcome for the Super Bowl.

Heck you have everything from blow out predictions from both sides to a close game.

Anyone else seen a convincing argument?

It goes back to how the lines are established. Favoring Denver by 2 doesn't really mean Vegas thinks they will beat the Seahawks by 2 points. They think that's the spread that will pull in equal money on both sides. As more money goes to one side over the other, the spread will adjust accordingly.

 

[NINEster]

You can think of many reasons for both teams winning it.

I think the big knock on the Seahawks is how different they are away and at home. Do you honestly think the Seattle D could go into the Superdome and completely shut down Drew Brees?

The first 2-3 quarters, you managed to make him look more conservative than I've ever seen Alex Smith play. In the superdome, much different results and the Saints probably win.

Seattle hasn't been forced to play a road playoff game this year, and last year they started out poorly in both. They didn't exactly dominate in either playoff game this year.

Now they are playing a team with a historically great offense, very smart QB. This offense doesn't need to rely on run and play action to move the ball.....and they will exploit weaknesses that other teams cannot take advantage of.

I think the way to look at it is if the Broncos can score more than 24 points they will probably win. If they are held to under 17-20, then they will probably lose.

 

[Largent80]

Don't be bitter. Seattle already traveled to that stadium this year and destroyed the Giants. Giants suck, but we did in fact, do what we should have done.

Enjoy.

 

[TheHawkster]

Listening to Clayton yesterday, he had a dude from a gambling site on.
Pro betting money will get it closer to a pick 'em right before the game.

Fan money flooded the market then the line went live.
Pro's are waiting for the best value and will take Seattle and the largest number possible.

 

[Shock2k]

I'm not a gambler, what happens if you tie the line. Like let's say it's +3 and the score is 23-20? Does a tie loose?

 

[Shock2k]

You can think of many reasons for both teams winning it.

I think the big knock on the Seahawks is how different they are away and at home. Do you honestly think the Seattle D could go into the Superdome and completely shut down Drew Brees?

The first 2-3 quarters, you managed to make him look more conservative than I've ever seen Alex Smith play. In the superdome, much different results and the Saints probably win.

Seattle hasn't been forced to play a road playoff game this year, and last year they started out poorly in both. They didn't exactly dominate in either playoff game this year.

Now they are playing a team with a historically great offense, very smart QB. This offense doesn't need to rely on run and play action to move the ball.....and they will exploit weaknesses that other teams cannot take advantage of.

I think the way to look at it is if the Broncos can score more than 24 points they will probably win. If they are held to under 17-20, then they will probably lose.

Nothing you say is "untrue". I would say Denver's magic number is 33. There is a major shift in defensive quality the Seahawks are facing heading into the Super Bowl. We are talking about going against top 10 defenses and then heading into the 19th ranked defense.

And if Russell Wilson needs to he can put the ball downfield, especially against the Denver Secondary.

 

[zifnab32]

You can think of many reasons for both teams winning it.

I think the big knock on the Seahawks is how different they are away and at home. Do you honestly think the Seattle D could go into the Superdome and completely shut down Drew Brees?

The first 2-3 quarters, you managed to make him look more conservative than I've ever seen Alex Smith play. In the superdome, much different results and the Saints probably win.

Seattle hasn't been forced to play a road playoff game this year, and last year they started out poorly in both. They didn't exactly dominate in either playoff game this year.

Litreally all of this applies to Denver as well - both teams had the same road record and had home field advantage through the playoffs. Denver somehow let the #32 ranked defense hang within a single score and the corpse of New England made it a game despite not having any healthy receivers, linebackers, or corners

 

[Will I]

I'm not a gambler, what happens if you tie the line. Like let's say it's +3 and the score is 23-20? Does a tie loose?

It's a "push" and you get your money back. Don't win, but don't lose either.

 

[CallMeADawg]

You can think of many reasons for both teams winning it.

I think the big knock on the Seahawks is how different they are away and at home. Do you honestly think the Seattle D could go into the Superdome and completely shut down Drew Brees?

The first 2-3 quarters, you managed to make him look more conservative than I've ever seen Alex Smith play. In the superdome, much different results and the Saints probably win.

Seattle hasn't been forced to play a road playoff game this year, and last year they started out poorly in both. They didn't exactly dominate in either playoff game this year.

Now they are playing a team with a historically great offense, very smart QB. This offense doesn't need to rely on run and play action to move the ball.....and they will exploit weaknesses that other teams cannot take advantage of.

I think the way to look at it is if the Broncos can score more than 24 points they will probably win. If they are held to under 17-20, then they will probably lose.

This is not a home game for either team. The fact that it is away from home presents a difference for Denver as well. Other than fan differentials, they will not have the luxury of higher altitude, which is well documented to cause opposing teams issues with fatigue. That is advantage Seattle, dude.

Since we did not play New Orleans in the Superdome, any statements about such a game are purely subjective, but what is not subjective is that your 49ers went there this year and lost.

Our performance in playoff games last year have no bearing on our performance in playoff games this year. Among other things, we have a much better pass rush this year with Bennett and Avril, and we have our X-Factor, Percy Harvin, back at 100% and ready to go.

I dont agree that Denver only needs 24 points to win this game. They do not have a defense as good as SF or NO. I still think the game ends up 30-17 though.

 

[Marlin Man]

Just did MY share to get the total book back towards EVEN-- Sent my bet down with Family and took OUR HAwks and the points- hope it is still 2.5 this afternoon!!!

 

[onanygivensunday]

Just checked out some prop bets.

Was surprised to find that the over/under for total INTs was set at just 1.5.

I'd definitely bet the over.

 

[bigwrm]

It goes back to how the lines are established. Favoring Denver by 2 doesn't really mean Vegas thinks they will beat the Seahawks by 2 points. They think that's the spread that will pull in equal money on both sides. As more money goes to one side over the other, the spread will adjust accordingly.

That's the general idea for establishing lines, but not really how it works in reality. Although generating equal action on either side is the safe play because it guarantees Vegas 5% from the vig, a lot of games end up at a 70-30 or 80-20 split as Vegas makes far more of a profit if they can exploit strong public plays. This happens quite a bit during the season but for the SB I'm guessing most bookmakers will go for more of an even split, just because the huge volume of money bet probably makes it too risky to do otherwise.

 

[formido]

The professional bookies did open with Seattle as a small favorite. Then a ton of money got poured on denver because the casual better only knows the name Peyton Manning and no other name from either team. That flood of money suddenly made denver a small favorite and that's where we stand.

I disagree. I think everybody had just spent that Sunday watching Denver clinically eviscerate NE, followed by that fumblerooskie slop fest that was the NFC championship and bet accordingly.

That's the same reason using different words. Sharps base their estimated odds on the whole season, squares on the last thing they saw.

 

[formido]

It goes back to how the lines are established. Favoring Denver by 2 doesn't really mean Vegas thinks they will beat the Seahawks by 2 points. They think that's the spread that will pull in equal money on both sides. As more money goes to one side over the other, the spread will adjust accordingly.

That's the general idea for establishing lines, but not really how it works in reality. Although generating equal action on either side is the safe play because it guarantees Vegas 5% from the vig, a lot of games end up at a 70-30 or 80-20 split as Vegas makes far more of a profit if they can exploit strong public plays. This happens quite a bit during the season but for the SB I'm guessing most bookmakers will go for more of an even split, just because the huge volume of money bet probably makes it too risky to do otherwise.

Exactly. That's why even though 70% of the money went on SF in the NFCCG, the line held firm, because knowledgeable handicappers understood that Seattle was that much better.

 

[Hasselbeck]

I could swear that the first thing I heard was that Seattle was favored by 2 and that the line changed.

Line opened as a pick em, public money poured in on Denver and moved the line.

The weird thing is before the championship games, the LVH had Seattle has a 3 point favorite over Denver.

 

[Hasselbeck]

The professional bookies did open with Seattle as a small favorite. Then a ton of money got poured on denver because the casual better only knows the name Peyton Manning and no other name from either team. That flood of money suddenly made denver a small favorite and that's where we stand.

I disagree. I think everybody had just spent that Sunday watching Denver clinically eviscerate NE, followed by that fumblerooskie slop fest that was the NFC championship and bet accordingly.

That's the same reason using different words. Sharps base their estimated odds on the whole season, squares on the last thing they saw.

Yep. And there in lies why Vegas makes a LOT of money day after day and week after week

 

[HawkWow]

Unsure if .net wants to go down this path, but I'd vote for a sticky thread on the subject of football wagering then / or eliminate every non-factual post and thread thereafter. Way too much misinformation being spread on the subject.

Reckless / Irresponsible / Dangerous = RID.

 

[HawkWow]

Vegas is in business to stay in business. The goal of the point spread is to force even action on both sides because that's when the casino makes money.

Correct.