Whenever I hear people talk about whether a team should take the ball first or defer, they only seem to talk about the impact on the first series of each half. That's a shortsighted approach, IMHO. Getting the ball first to start the game may give instant gratification, but it's not a wise long-term investment in terms of potential game outcome. The following are facts:
1. There are either an even number of offensive possessions in a half, or an odd number.
2. If the number is even, Each team has the same number of possessions.
3. If there is an odd number, then one team has an extra possession.
4. If there is an odd number, then the team with the extra possession must be the team that had the first possession of the half.
5. All games are won by the team with the most points after the second half of play.
Therefore, I always want to ensure that I have at least as many, and hopefully one more, second half possession than my opponent, and never want to give them the opportunity at an extra second half possession. If I am behind at the half, it gives me more opportunities to catch up. If I'm ahead, it gives them fewer opportunities to catch up.