Decreased offensive versatility: cause?

[hawknation2015]

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[Anthony!]

IMHO I think RW is gun shy . There are open WRs so let's just stop sayin we got no WRs ! I mean for gods sake look at the Super Bowl Baldwin was open almost every play against Revis if you bother to acualy look aT the tape . There are plays he is running free across the field and RW just won't let it go basically looking right at him .ove seen this trend if the WR is not like crazy all alone wide open he won't throw that in the short passing game which is basically non existent . I love his leadership and all that comes with that but with the kinda power run game and historically great defense we have I really expect a lot more In the passing game .i do however think he needs to really grow into a passer to be complete. The back yard run around football is very exciting but I'd love to just carve up a defense like the True passers of this league . Well one thing is for dam sure now that Jimmy Graham is here Zero excuse in the short passing game . I can't wait to here we got no WRs cause JG is basically a huge WR playing TE with yes increadable hands . So this is the year he either becomes a passer as well or just an increadable athlete with great leadership skills IMHO .

Here is the real ? Could RW win game after game if the defense was mediocre and we had RB by Committee Type system with his passing skills basically on his arm. That's friends is the real ? Yes 2 superbowls all the winning etc . But let's be honest take Way the LOB and lynch well....

Okay first off sorry no, if you listen to Huard or Millan after every game he says the same thing no one was open. Heck during every game the announcers sat it, As to the supposed analysis by this one person, the are huge problems with it, for instance we do not know down and distance, if Bawldin is open on a 3rd and 9 but he is open for only 3 why would Wilson throw it to him they need more. We also do not know the play call, or were Baldwin is in the progression. Maybe he is open but if it is after Wilson has already moved past him in the progression who cares. Also the view we get is aerial and does not show us what Wilson sees. Add to tall that we do not know what PC gave him for marching orders as it relates to challenging Revis, maybe he was told do not unless you are 100% Baldwin will be the only one to catch it. So again what we know is absolutely nothing, but a lot of conjecture. Given all of that I will always go with Huard and Millan as they know this team, this scheme, the plays etc and both said Baldwin was not open all the time at all.

 

[Spin Doctor]

IMHO I think RW is gun shy . There are open WRs so let's just stop sayin we got no WRs ! I mean for gods sake look at the Super Bowl Baldwin was open almost every play against Revis if you bother to acualy look aT the tape . There are plays he is running free across the field and RW just won't let it go basically looking right at him .ove seen this trend if the WR is not like crazy all alone wide open he won't throw that in the short passing game which is basically non existent . I love his leadership and all that comes with that but with the kinda power run game and historically great defense we have I really expect a lot more In the passing game .i do however think he needs to really grow into a passer to be complete. The back yard run around football is very exciting but I'd love to just carve up a defense like the True passers of this league . Well one thing is for dam sure now that Jimmy Graham is here Zero excuse in the short passing game . I can't wait to here we got no WRs cause JG is basically a huge WR playing TE with yes increadable hands . So this is the year he either becomes a passer as well or just an increadable athlete with great leadership skills IMHO .

Here is the real ? Could RW win game after game if the defense was mediocre and we had RB by Committee Type system with his passing skills basically on his arm. That's friends is the real ? Yes 2 superbowls all the winning etc . But let's be honest take Way the LOB and lynch well....

Okay first off sorry no, if you listen to Huard or Millan after every game he says the same thing no one was open. Heck during every game the announcers sat it, As to the supposed analysis by this one person, the are huge problems with it, for instance we do not know down and distance, if Bawldin is open on a 3rd and 9 but he is open for only 3 why would Wilson throw it to him they need more. We also do not know the play call, or were Baldwin is in the progression. Maybe he is open but if it is after Wilson has already moved past him in the progression who cares. Also the view we get is aerial and does not show us what Wilson sees. Add to tall that we do not know what PC gave him for marching orders as it relates to challenging Revis, maybe he was told do not unless you are 100% Baldwin will be the only one to catch it. So again what we know is absolutely nothing, but a lot of conjecture. Given all of that I will always go with Huard and Millan as they know this team, this scheme, the plays etc and both said Baldwin was not open all the time at all.

FOR WILSON!!!!!

 

[hawkfannj]

IMHO I think RW is gun shy . There are open WRs so let's just stop sayin we got no WRs ! I mean for gods sake look at the Super Bowl Baldwin was open almost every play against Revis if you bother to acualy look aT the tape . There are plays he is running free across the field and RW just won't let it go basically looking right at him .ove seen this trend if the WR is not like crazy all alone wide open he won't throw that in the short passing game which is basically non existent . I love his leadership and all that comes with that but with the kinda power run game and historically great defense we have I really expect a lot more In the passing game .i do however think he needs to really grow into a passer to be complete. The back yard run around football is very exciting but I'd love to just carve up a defense like the True passers of this league . Well one thing is for dam sure now that Jimmy Graham is here Zero excuse in the short passing game . I can't wait to here we got no WRs cause JG is basically a huge WR playing TE with yes increadable hands . So this is the year he either becomes a passer as well or just an increadable athlete with great leadership skills IMHO .

Here is the real ? Could RW win game after game if the defense was mediocre and we had RB by Committee Type system with his passing skills basically on his arm. That's friends is the real ? Yes 2 superbowls all the winning etc . But let's be honest take Way the LOB and lynch well....

Okay first off sorry no, if you listen to Huard or Millan after every game he says the same thing no one was open. Heck during every game the announcers sat it, As to the supposed analysis by this one person, the are huge problems with it, for instance we do not know down and distance, if Bawldin is open on a 3rd and 9 but he is open for only 3 why would Wilson throw it to him they need more. We also do not know the play call, or were Baldwin is in the progression. Maybe he is open but if it is after Wilson has already moved past him in the progression who cares. Also the view we get is aerial and does not show us what Wilson sees. Add to tall that we do not know what PC gave him for marching orders as it relates to challenging Revis, maybe he was told do not unless you are 100% Baldwin will be the only one to catch it. So again what we know is absolutely nothing, but a lot of conjecture. Given all of that I will always go with Huard and Millan as they know this team, this scheme, the plays etc and both said Baldwin was not open all the time at all.

If you acualy read my post I was talking about Baldwin in the super bowl first off and I find it very hard to believe that no one is ever open like ever like never not once it's a little over exaggerated to say the least . And second well like I said you got jimmy graham now so we will see exactly what he can do . Unless it's already Bevelles fault :sarcasm_on: plus you never address his greatness without the LOB and lynch I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.

 

[purpleneer]

I think this is very much the case.

I do think there is something missing or not quite right with this offense. While I'm not one to really believe in 'eye tests', this sentiment has been repeated exhaustively by fans during the season and the offseason. There is literally no shortage of opinions on where our needs lie (below average OL, lack of big #1 receiver, red zone options, Bevell etc.) The opinions really kind of scatter all across the map.

The offense does have a lot going for it too, and when one looks at how we compare statistically, we kind of shake our heads and go, "Really? They did that well?" And then move on to the next problem du jour with the offense.

When I looked at all of our drives over the course of the year, there really seemed to be several consistent observations offensively.

1. Seattle was very good at scoring outside of the red zone. Explosive plays served us well. We had a very large number of scoring drives with under 7 plays. Not all of that scoring was TDs.

2. Our total scoring per drive was 41.1%. Good for 5th in the league. GB topped the league at 48%

In my examination, the clear issue that truly limited Seattle, was our ability to extend drives on third down. We didn't fare very well in that regard. While we were better than the 10 year average for the NFL in short yardage (3rd and 3 or less), Seattle was actually at or below league average in conversions in the 4 to 6 yard range. And with just a very few exceptions (3rd and 9 and 3rd and 10), we were far below league average in 3rd and 7 to 3rd and 10. But third and 11+, Seattle was positively awful compared to the entire league.

Seattle had difficulty converting and extending drives compared to the league average. Yet what stood out most to me, was that on drives where we converted at least one 3rd down, our scoring rate was a massive 60%.

What that indicates to me, is that this offense, as is today, is extremely effective -- well above the best in the NFL in it's ability to score. The explosive plays are a major feature of the offense and we only need to really just keep the ball an extra handful of plays in order to score at an extremely high level.

I think the combination of the two traits (good/improving offensive numbers, explosive plays, drive killing 3rd down failures) tends to make this offense very Jekyll/Hyde when we try to put our fingers on what's off. Ultimately, Seattle was good at scoring. Particularly in instances where we could extend drives. But we didn't perform well at extending drives. Or rather, we really suffered when trying to convert 3rd and medium/long.

I am super excited to see how Graham and Lockett operate for this team. Both players are extremely skilled in solving the kinds of issues that we struggled with. Converting money downs. Lockett hasn't done this at the NFL level, but I am very bullish on how his game will translate at this level. Particularly his strengths as a route runner and a guy innately gifted at getting open. I do think these two will largely solve our conversion issues in that 4 to 10 yard range. And if the offensive personnel remains as effective as they did last year in other respects, our scoring rate should be around Green Bay's this year.

Totally agree and I've been saying that 3rd and anything other than short has been the biggest issue. Need more high-percentage intermediate stuff than counting on hitting further downfield. It would really help make it more comfortable playing with a late lead and having 3-and-outs put more pressure on the D.
Also, I never felt like scoring percentages told much, red-zone or overall, with not differentiating between FGs and TDs. Can you find those in a points-per-drive format?

 

[Anthony!]

IMHO I think RW is gun shy . There are open WRs so let's just stop sayin we got no WRs ! I mean for gods sake look at the Super Bowl Baldwin was open almost every play against Revis if you bother to acualy look aT the tape . There are plays he is running free across the field and RW just won't let it go basically looking right at him .ove seen this trend if the WR is not like crazy all alone wide open he won't throw that in the short passing game which is basically non existent . I love his leadership and all that comes with that but with the kinda power run game and historically great defense we have I really expect a lot more In the passing game .i do however think he needs to really grow into a passer to be complete. The back yard run around football is very exciting but I'd love to just carve up a defense like the True passers of this league . Well one thing is for dam sure now that Jimmy Graham is here Zero excuse in the short passing game . I can't wait to here we got no WRs cause JG is basically a huge WR playing TE with yes increadable hands . So this is the year he either becomes a passer as well or just an increadable athlete with great leadership skills IMHO .

Here is the real ? Could RW win game after game if the defense was mediocre and we had RB by Committee Type system with his passing skills basically on his arm. That's friends is the real ? Yes 2 superbowls all the winning etc . But let's be honest take Way the LOB and lynch well....

Okay first off sorry no, if you listen to Huard or Millan after every game he says the same thing no one was open. Heck during every game the announcers sat it, As to the supposed analysis by this one person, the are huge problems with it, for instance we do not know down and distance, if Bawldin is open on a 3rd and 9 but he is open for only 3 why would Wilson throw it to him they need more. We also do not know the play call, or were Baldwin is in the progression. Maybe he is open but if it is after Wilson has already moved past him in the progression who cares. Also the view we get is aerial and does not show us what Wilson sees. Add to tall that we do not know what PC gave him for marching orders as it relates to challenging Revis, maybe he was told do not unless you are 100% Baldwin will be the only one to catch it. So again what we know is absolutely nothing, but a lot of conjecture. Given all of that I will always go with Huard and Millan as they know this team, this scheme, the plays etc and both said Baldwin was not open all the time at all.

If you acualy read my post I was talking about Baldwin in the super bowl first off and I find it very hard to believe that no one is ever open like ever like never not once it's a little over exaggerated to say the least . And second well like I said you got jimmy graham now so we will see exactly what he can do . Unless it's already Bevelles fault :sarcasm_on: plus you never address his greatness without the LOB and lynch I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.

Well LOB has little impact on the offense except Feld position and keeping the other team form scoring, Guess what Rw faces 8 top 10 defenses every year too. LOB and the defenses also gain form less time on the filed 6 minutes compared to 2011, and form knowing they have a guy who can bring them back should they falter unlike 2011. Again my point was to point out we really do not know how may times Baldwin was open and at what point he got open or what the down and distance was, so basically as I said we know nothing, except that the guys who would know Millan and Huard both said no one is getting open a lot.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

My comment about the long field was based on what we netted on PR/KR. When we really needed yardage, we didn't get it. That stat is skewed by our defense.

I don't disagree at all. It certainly could have been better. Seattle's defensive LOS/Drive average was tops in the league. Our Yds/Drive was 3rd. So our LOS/Drive should have been excellent. Which it was.

The end result was we didn't face long fields. No thanks to the return game which posted a -2 yds over NFL average versus our +7 in 2013.

Seattle rode the backs of the Defense in this situation and they came through. The return game definitely was not average/par.

One thing I did note however, was that good starting field position only marginally affected our scoring drive rates. Discounting drives which already started in scoring position (opponent's 35), our scoring rate was not even 50% when starting between the 40s. Now that stat is dubious because of lack of sample size to be sure. But the correlation was nevertheless weak between good field position and scoring.

I wouldn't say it was the source of ills. But it certainly had a lot of room for improvement. I believe it's been greatly improved, even if I don't think it'll have a huge impact on our success. I expect Lockett's best contributions will come as a WR, not a PR. Similarly I think Graham's biggest impact will be between the 30s, and not in the red zone.

When this team extends drives, it almost can't help but score. Charting the drives it's impressive how many first downs we make without even facing a third down to begin with. The average additional yardage per drive for each converted 3rd down was 16 yards. That's impressive considering that accounts for drives where there weren't 16 yards to be had or drives which subsequently resulted in TO's, subsequent 3rd downs and FG attempts in the next series of downs. Those 16 yards isn't that far off from the total yards per drive that Seattle's defense allows period (25).

 

[Laloosh]

I think this is very much the case.

I do think there is something missing or not quite right with this offense. While I'm not one to really believe in 'eye tests', this sentiment has been repeated exhaustively by fans during the season and the offseason. There is literally no shortage of opinions on where our needs lie (below average OL, lack of big #1 receiver, red zone options, Bevell etc.) The opinions really kind of scatter all across the map.

The offense does have a lot going for it too, and when one looks at how we compare statistically, we kind of shake our heads and go, "Really? They did that well?" And then move on to the next problem du jour with the offense.

When I looked at all of our drives over the course of the year, there really seemed to be several consistent observations offensively.

1. Seattle was very good at scoring outside of the red zone. Explosive plays served us well. We had a very large number of scoring drives with under 7 plays. Not all of that scoring was TDs.

2. Our total scoring per drive was 41.1%. Good for 5th in the league. GB topped the league at 48%

In my examination, the clear issue that truly limited Seattle, was our ability to extend drives on third down. We didn't fare very well in that regard. While we were better than the 10 year average for the NFL in short yardage (3rd and 3 or less), Seattle was actually at or below league average in conversions in the 4 to 6 yard range. And with just a very few exceptions (3rd and 9 and 3rd and 10), we were far below league average in 3rd and 7 to 3rd and 10. But third and 11+, Seattle was positively awful compared to the entire league.

Seattle had difficulty converting and extending drives compared to the league average. Yet what stood out most to me, was that on drives where we converted at least one 3rd down, our scoring rate was a massive 60%.

What that indicates to me, is that this offense, as is today, is extremely effective -- well above the best in the NFL in it's ability to score. The explosive plays are a major feature of the offense and we only need to really just keep the ball an extra handful of plays in order to score at an extremely high level.

I think the combination of the two traits (good/improving offensive numbers, explosive plays, drive killing 3rd down failures) tends to make this offense very Jekyll/Hyde when we try to put our fingers on what's off. Ultimately, Seattle was good at scoring. Particularly in instances where we could extend drives. But we didn't perform well at extending drives. Or rather, we really suffered when trying to convert 3rd and medium/long.

I am super excited to see how Graham and Lockett operate for this team. Both players are extremely skilled in solving the kinds of issues that we struggled with. Converting money downs. Lockett hasn't done this at the NFL level, but I am very bullish on how his game will translate at this level. Particularly his strengths as a route runner and a guy innately gifted at getting open. I do think these two will largely solve our conversion issues in that 4 to 10 yard range. And if the offensive personnel remains as effective as they did last year in other respects, our scoring rate should be around Green Bay's this year.

Totally agree and I've been saying that 3rd and anything other than short has been the biggest issue. Need more high-percentage intermediate stuff than counting on hitting further downfield. It would really help make it more comfortable playing with a late lead and having 3-and-outs put more pressure on the D.
Also, I never felt like scoring percentages told much, red-zone or overall, with not differentiating between FGs and TDs. Can you find those in a points-per-drive format?

Quoting your post but addressing others along with it.

Actually, we were better than teams like NE and DAL on 3rd and 6-10.

SEA: 43.6% http://pfref.com/tiny/8xaoE
NE: 40.0% http://pfref.com/tiny/zwNHR
DAL: 41.8% http://pfref.com/tiny/HzRhm

Run/pass ratio is nearly identical between SEA and NE but DAL passed a lot more on 3rd and long (maybe because Dez averaged more than 20 YPC in these situations). I included DAL because I think their use of the running game best reflected Seattle compared to other teams in the league.

Comparing top 2-3 targets for each:
Wilson's top targets were Baldwin at 75% for 17.2 ypc and Kearse at 38% for 37.8 ypc (long ball madness).
Brady's top targets were Gronk at 55% for 13.45 ypc, LaFell at 68% for 10.18 ypc and Edelman at 77% for 11.2 ypc.
Romo's top targets were Bryant at 59% for 22.2 ypc and Witten at 67% for 12.1 ypc.

As I said in a previous post, I think teams have just figured out that if they can cover Baldwin, they have a really good chance of stopping us on 3rd down.

Where we drop off significantly is in the red zone on 3rd down. Wilson's completion percentage drops to 41% and his only consistent targets are Baldwin and Lynch. It's strikingly apparent how little we get out of the TE position as well as Kearse down there on 3rd down. http://pfref.com/tiny/6NseQ

I don't have the numbers to say that this is certain but I'd wager that Wilson is among the most blitzed quarterbacks in the league inside of the red zone and THAT is where we really need to see more of that short passing game and/or a BIG target that can win on a jump ball. Enter Jimmy Graham...

As for all of the posts talking about Wilson being gun shy and/or being so dependent on the defense, it's an argument that will continue until the defense falls off. I think Russ's red zone game has to improve but I also think he needs more help from the guys that he's throwing to.

BTW - SEA did not have the best average drive starting position in the league. They were 3rd behind Miami and New England. Their TD/FG ratio was 40:31 compared to NE's 47:35 and they punted less frequently than NE. They simply had fewer drives. Neither were tops in the league but given where both teams finished the season (in the SB), I think it's fair to say that Seattle's offense didn't just rely on their defense.

 

[bigskydoc]

Part of the reason our miserable return game last year did not show up in the stat for field position at the start of the drive is the fact that our defensive and kicking teams (primarily John Ryan) did such an excellent job pinning our opponents deep. Last year we led the league in opponent average starting field position. The average line of scrimmage at the start of our opponents drive was the 25.25 yd line.

- bsd

 

[theincrediblesok]

IMHO I think RW is gun shy . There are open WRs so let's just stop sayin we got no WRs ! I mean for gods sake look at the Super Bowl Baldwin was open almost every play against Revis if you bother to acualy look aT the tape . There are plays he is running free across the field and RW just won't let it go basically looking right at him .ove seen this trend if the WR is not like crazy all alone wide open he won't throw that in the short passing game which is basically non existent . I love his leadership and all that comes with that but with the kinda power run game and historically great defense we have I really expect a lot more In the passing game .i do however think he needs to really grow into a passer to be complete. The back yard run around football is very exciting but I'd love to just carve up a defense like the True passers of this league . Well one thing is for dam sure now that Jimmy Graham is here Zero excuse in the short passing game . I can't wait to here we got no WRs cause JG is basically a huge WR playing TE with yes increadable hands . So this is the year he either becomes a passer as well or just an increadable athlete with great leadership skills IMHO .

Here is the real ? Could RW win game after game if the defense was mediocre and we had RB by Committee Type system with his passing skills basically on his arm. That's friends is the real ? Yes 2 superbowls all the winning etc . But let's be honest take Way the LOB and lynch well....

There's always open WR somewhere some play, but does it mean the playcalling was going to go their way. I've seen those gif that someone posted of Baldwin getting open in the SB, only 1 or two were ones that would justify Baldwin actually being open, but at the same time how many times have we seen WR open against Sherman only to be played into thinking they were. The others were Baldwin was open after Wilson had already thrown the ball to Kearse or another player and the play-calling might be that it was meant for that player to get the ball regardless if another player was open. If Baldwin was open all the time then why didn't Bevell get some plays to Baldwin? Baldwin would of told Bevell to get him more touches shouldn't he? I just read an interesting article about Aaron Rodgers, everyone always says to be an elite QB you have to call your own plays.....Rodgers pretty much said "Nobody does that" he even mention that Peyton doesn't even do that, audible out of a play is a different story though.

Source: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-foo ... YHF7e3228e

 

[justafan]

If there is a lack of diversity I think its a problem with people executing plays the way they were drawn up.
Im talking about the basics.Cutting down on stupid penalties.Wilson taking the 3,5 or 7 step drop and letting it go, the WR being at the right place at the right time, a dropped pass that should have been caught.
I cant tell you why these things are happening but there is a definite disconnect with the players doing their job.
Even the slant in the SB it was open that play should never be intercepted.Blame who you want but it should NEVER be intercepted.
If i have a problem with Bevel and Cable its on the execution side of things not the Xs and Os.
That being said the difference between our points per game vs the top teams isnt that much.IMO the difference is mistakes that make a 1st and 10 into a 1st and 15.Or a 2nd and goal at the 3 into a 2nd at the 13.Its the little details that seem to cause us the most problems

 

[EntiatHawk]

We can all go on about this and that about Wilson, the receivers. But end results actually count for more than anything. In that department the Wilson and Co have been very good.

Our offense will never put up gaudy receiving stats because that is not who they are. The offense is really based on beating you up, manning you up, seeing if you have the will to go at it for the whole game and then taking advantage in the 4th qtr, which they have done extremely well. The fact this team has never been blown out since the Wilson era is really saying something. Even when things are not going right they are in the position to win. Not many teams can do that.

We all have our grumblings with Bevell and the offensive scheme at times but the end result has been pretty darn good.