kearly
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What kind of offseason are you expecting? What kind of draft are you expecting? What kind of team do you think we'll have in 2015? Obviously, we'll have to revisit this after the offseason is over, but I thought it would be fun to talk about what we think will happen in this moment in time.
What kind of offseason am I expecting?
I think the first question is the hardest for me, because it definitely feels like Seattle is preparing to make a run of some kind in free agency despite the contract situations with Wilson, Lynch and Wagner. I think PC/JS are very aware of the unusually good FA class this year coupled with the fact that the salary cap is currently rising every year at historic rates. There is sound reasoning in Seattle staying put, but I just get the feeling that PC/JS are planning to make 2015 a spendy year.
Maybe that means landing Suh. Maybe that means trading for Marshall. Maybe that means signing Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron. Maybe that means keeping Byron Maxwell. Maybe that means they look into Dez Bryant, or if the Lynch negotiations stall very badly, perhaps AP or Murray. I think the Seahawks are going to be "in on" a lot of potential deals on March 10th, and the deals that fall their way will likely be the ones that Seattle signs. They'll even be in on some deals that don't make a lot of sense on the surface, because JS isn't afraid to kick the tires just to see what happens.
What makes this question hard is that not all of these scenarios are equal. For example, landing Suh would probably cost roughly the same amount of money as trading for Brandon Marshall plus signing Julius Thomas, but I would be significantly more excited about a Suh in Seattle scenario. Marshall and Thomas would be high end accessories, but Suh would be transformative. Which is amazing to think about, given where Seattle's defense is currently.
Ultimately, I do think Seattle is going to have an exciting FA period this year, probably the most exciting since 2013. So far, PC/JS have remained relatively dormant in FA during even numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014) but have been big spenders in the odd years (2011, 2013). I don't know if that means we're getting Suh, but I do think Seattle will probably land at least one big name free agent this Spring.
I think Lynch is in "he don't give a you-know-what" mode right now, but I think he'll sign an extension with Seattle sometime this offseason.
What kind of draft am I expecting?
Like a lot of people, I think this draft will basically be a repeat of last year. Seattle will probably trade out of the 1st round and it won't require a big offer to do it. I think Seattle will generally let players come to them instead of fighting the board, which means getting a lot of Jordan Hill and Kevin Norwood type picks through the first several rounds (guys that were basically the last of their respective 'tiers" when Seattle drafted them).
However, I do think that Seattle will look to add a WR this year. Even if they traded for Marshall I'd still expect them to draft a WR, given that the FA / trade period options at WR are mostly past their prime. I think they will also look at OL. And possibly RB, depending on Lynch.
This draft is incredibly weak at safety and not much better at corner (Seattle only drafts corners with 32+" arms, and the list of those players who are draftable is very short this year). This is actually my top concern this offseason, as Maxwell is likely gone and most of the LOB is having surgery or recovering from serious long term injuries. Some people have mentioned Will Blackmon and Walter Thurmond, but Thurmond is tough to depend on and Blackmon turns 31 during the 2015 season.
In conclusion, my expectation for this draft is that Seattle will draft some nice redshirt role players at positions of strength ala Jordan Hill types, but will probably struggle to fill some of the teams bigger holes through the draft. It should be interesting to see what they do to address KR/PR, as both areas were incredibly weak last season.
What kind of team do I think we'll have in 2015?
I think we've actually been very lucky with injuries in the secondary. Sherman and Earl Thomas seem to save their injuries for late in the year when they can tough it out to the end. I think there are some similarities between Thomas and Bob Sanders and my #1 worry for 2015 is that this could be the year Earl finally misses significant time. With Jeron Johnson possibly moving on in FA, and with the draft looking terrible at safety, this is something that keeps me up at night a bit. Without Earl Seattle is probably a 10 win team at best.
My bright spot for next season would have been Paul Richardson and the development of the quick hit passing game. But Richardson is basically entering next season in a similar situation that Navarro Bowman had last year, and Bowman ended up never even playing a down in 2014. Richardson will probably miss time, and even if he does play, he's going to be at maybe 80%.
Because of this, WR is a concern, and if Seattle ALSO lost Lynch somehow, Seattle would probably be in a dogfight with Arizona for the division. I think Seattle will probably land a significant contributor in the passing game, especially if they miss out on Suh and have some cash available.
I actually feel okay about the offensive line, though depth needs to be added. Basically areas like OL, DL, and LB are not a concern for me because I think our starters are already good enough and I trust JS to draft good backups in the draft.
Interior pass rush is a concern, but if Seattle gets Suh or if they get lucky with guys like Marsh... I just have a hunch this hole will be addressed.
KR/PR is a problem and I have a hunch it will remain a problem for longer than we'd like.
Overall, the team I'm realistically expecting Seattle to field is probably a 10-12 win team. For the first time in a while, it feels like this team has some real holes to fill and filling them could be easier said than done this offseason. The positive spin on this is that this also opens up opportunity for a draft pick to contribute right away, or for a player like Suh to make a huge difference. Maybe a guy like Will Blackmon still has one more good year in the tank on the cheap? Maybe Seattle gets lucky and their 1st round pick WR also happens to be an ace return man. There is some opportunity for getting lucky this offseason more than in the past.
Basically, I think as things stand Seattle will likely decline in 2015, but an exciting offseason could change that. And this offseason feels like it has a better than average chance of being exciting.
What kind of offseason am I expecting?
I think the first question is the hardest for me, because it definitely feels like Seattle is preparing to make a run of some kind in free agency despite the contract situations with Wilson, Lynch and Wagner. I think PC/JS are very aware of the unusually good FA class this year coupled with the fact that the salary cap is currently rising every year at historic rates. There is sound reasoning in Seattle staying put, but I just get the feeling that PC/JS are planning to make 2015 a spendy year.
Maybe that means landing Suh. Maybe that means trading for Marshall. Maybe that means signing Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron. Maybe that means keeping Byron Maxwell. Maybe that means they look into Dez Bryant, or if the Lynch negotiations stall very badly, perhaps AP or Murray. I think the Seahawks are going to be "in on" a lot of potential deals on March 10th, and the deals that fall their way will likely be the ones that Seattle signs. They'll even be in on some deals that don't make a lot of sense on the surface, because JS isn't afraid to kick the tires just to see what happens.
What makes this question hard is that not all of these scenarios are equal. For example, landing Suh would probably cost roughly the same amount of money as trading for Brandon Marshall plus signing Julius Thomas, but I would be significantly more excited about a Suh in Seattle scenario. Marshall and Thomas would be high end accessories, but Suh would be transformative. Which is amazing to think about, given where Seattle's defense is currently.
Ultimately, I do think Seattle is going to have an exciting FA period this year, probably the most exciting since 2013. So far, PC/JS have remained relatively dormant in FA during even numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014) but have been big spenders in the odd years (2011, 2013). I don't know if that means we're getting Suh, but I do think Seattle will probably land at least one big name free agent this Spring.
I think Lynch is in "he don't give a you-know-what" mode right now, but I think he'll sign an extension with Seattle sometime this offseason.
What kind of draft am I expecting?
Like a lot of people, I think this draft will basically be a repeat of last year. Seattle will probably trade out of the 1st round and it won't require a big offer to do it. I think Seattle will generally let players come to them instead of fighting the board, which means getting a lot of Jordan Hill and Kevin Norwood type picks through the first several rounds (guys that were basically the last of their respective 'tiers" when Seattle drafted them).
However, I do think that Seattle will look to add a WR this year. Even if they traded for Marshall I'd still expect them to draft a WR, given that the FA / trade period options at WR are mostly past their prime. I think they will also look at OL. And possibly RB, depending on Lynch.
This draft is incredibly weak at safety and not much better at corner (Seattle only drafts corners with 32+" arms, and the list of those players who are draftable is very short this year). This is actually my top concern this offseason, as Maxwell is likely gone and most of the LOB is having surgery or recovering from serious long term injuries. Some people have mentioned Will Blackmon and Walter Thurmond, but Thurmond is tough to depend on and Blackmon turns 31 during the 2015 season.
In conclusion, my expectation for this draft is that Seattle will draft some nice redshirt role players at positions of strength ala Jordan Hill types, but will probably struggle to fill some of the teams bigger holes through the draft. It should be interesting to see what they do to address KR/PR, as both areas were incredibly weak last season.
What kind of team do I think we'll have in 2015?
I think we've actually been very lucky with injuries in the secondary. Sherman and Earl Thomas seem to save their injuries for late in the year when they can tough it out to the end. I think there are some similarities between Thomas and Bob Sanders and my #1 worry for 2015 is that this could be the year Earl finally misses significant time. With Jeron Johnson possibly moving on in FA, and with the draft looking terrible at safety, this is something that keeps me up at night a bit. Without Earl Seattle is probably a 10 win team at best.
My bright spot for next season would have been Paul Richardson and the development of the quick hit passing game. But Richardson is basically entering next season in a similar situation that Navarro Bowman had last year, and Bowman ended up never even playing a down in 2014. Richardson will probably miss time, and even if he does play, he's going to be at maybe 80%.
Because of this, WR is a concern, and if Seattle ALSO lost Lynch somehow, Seattle would probably be in a dogfight with Arizona for the division. I think Seattle will probably land a significant contributor in the passing game, especially if they miss out on Suh and have some cash available.
I actually feel okay about the offensive line, though depth needs to be added. Basically areas like OL, DL, and LB are not a concern for me because I think our starters are already good enough and I trust JS to draft good backups in the draft.
Interior pass rush is a concern, but if Seattle gets Suh or if they get lucky with guys like Marsh... I just have a hunch this hole will be addressed.
KR/PR is a problem and I have a hunch it will remain a problem for longer than we'd like.
Overall, the team I'm realistically expecting Seattle to field is probably a 10-12 win team. For the first time in a while, it feels like this team has some real holes to fill and filling them could be easier said than done this offseason. The positive spin on this is that this also opens up opportunity for a draft pick to contribute right away, or for a player like Suh to make a huge difference. Maybe a guy like Will Blackmon still has one more good year in the tank on the cheap? Maybe Seattle gets lucky and their 1st round pick WR also happens to be an ace return man. There is some opportunity for getting lucky this offseason more than in the past.
Basically, I think as things stand Seattle will likely decline in 2015, but an exciting offseason could change that. And this offseason feels like it has a better than average chance of being exciting.