pmedic920":ij9mk0gp said:
You pay whatever top 5 QBs are getting at the time the negotiating starts.
Duh
This.
I find the 'he's a good, not great QB' arguments to be total garbage. Not because they may well be right. I tend to agree to an extent (although I think he is better than good -- but also don't think he's great).
What is garbage is the implied notion that you can simply get a good QB with relative ease. This is absurdly not the case. Even in today's NFL where first round caliber QBs seem to come in twos and threes at least every other year.
The real answer to this question isn't 'Is Wilson worth it?'. It's how will we replace him with that good QB?
Here are the drafts of this past decade. I've eliminated any QB picked in the top 4 overall. One, because this team is not going to be that bad in the foreseeable future. Two because even bad teams can still end up out of the top 4. So here goes:
Day 1 picks:
View attachment 2
Day 2 picks:
View attachment 1
Day 3 picks:
Looking at the QBs, the odds of getting a QB even of Jake Locker's 'goodness' is pitifully bad. Even in the 5th to 32nd overall range, it's pretty bad. And not every draft even has guys worthy of that range to begin with. Which probably accounts for why you get Christian Ponders and Paxton Lynchs being drafted in R1 even though they aren't worthy.
Day 2 QBs is an even worse lot to pull from. Without a doubt, Wilson is the best QB to come from day 2 this entire decade. It's not really that close. And there is essentially Andy Dalton standing alone as a good QB from the 21 players picked in this range for this decade.
Day 3. Well it's just a real mess.
The real question isn't is Wilson worth the cash. The real question is how many draft picks would a team have to expend in order to just get a guy as good as Ryan Tannehill. Even if we never traded up -- just kept drafting QBs every single year until we got lucky on one -- one could be looking at 2-3 first round picks, 3-4 2nd to third round picks and maybe in excess of 10 day 3 picks. Over the course of 5-7 years. Because those are kind of the odds.
Even despite the fact that college seems to be producing higher quality QBs at a better overall rate -- that is far from certain. The last two drafts may have been outliers. This current years' rookies still have time to flame out in classic Rick Mirer fashion.
If a team could just buy a first round pick for 10m in cap space, we'd think that a no brainer. Keeping a very good QB is like getting a first and a third for that 10m (figure a 'good' QB is going to cost 22-23m on the open market). In the scheme of what is the alternative going to look like and what will that cost in terms of draft capital the question seems remarkably absurd.
You can't simply buy a franchise QB. The opportunity is exceptionally rare and almost always very fleeting. You can more often buy QBs who used to be good (Flacco, Bortles etc.) Those will cost about 20m on the open market. Bradford as bad as he is cost that plus multiple 1st round picks.
The ONLY way to part with Wilson, is if you spend years and high draft capital on QBs even when you have Wilson on the roster. And then be fortunate enough to have him hit (Kansas City's exact model duplicated this year by Baltimore). It's why I hoped to high heaven that we drafted Lamar Jackson this draft. How often do you get to draft the most explosive player in the entire draft?
If we're going to replace Wilson, it's going to assuredly be a multi year effort. Spending high draft picks on gooberish looking QB prospects. Hoping one of them pops. Leaving holes left unfilled by design in the process.
