LJ Collier and Marquise Blair

[TheLegendOfBoom]

The Blair pick was very discouraging to see, especially after they traded for Quandre Diggs.

In your world does April come after October? Because otherwise we got Blair *before* Diggs, not after.

No, why go after Diggs if you have Blair??

It’s cause Blair isn’t ready to play or is not the player they thought he would be.

What I’m saying is, we could have gotten an immediate contributor.

If you wanted Diggs anyways and we’re gonna trade for a safety, you shouldn’t have drafted Blair, at least not so early.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

Both guys are hard to judge at the moment.

Blair flashed massive potential in his brief appearances in the lineup. He looks like a guy who needs some time to learn the scheme before he can be trusted on the field. I wouldn't be shocked if he pulls a Kam and becomes a valuable starter in his second season.

Collier is anyone's guess. I'm personally of the belief that Seattle was expecting Montez Sweat to fall to them, when Washington grabbed him they panicked into taking the only other viable DE option. It's the only rational explanation I can think of to explain the pick. Collier at the time wasn't really a need; we had/have a ton of guys on the roster with a similar skill set, but we really had no speed rushers out outside of Martin.

If Montez Sweat was the preferred choice they should have just taken him at 21, and forgot all the trade down crap they do every year. What is so wrong with grabbing a guy to replace Clark on a rookie contract. They still had pick 30 to do the trade down stuff. I really liked what I saw in Sweat the few times I saw him in college. He had 7 sacks his rookie year on a crap team. What number would he have had with Clowney on the other side? Who knows.

This is also not the first time. They traded down in 2017 passing on both TJ Watt for DE and Ramczyk for OT. Instead they went for a head case in McDowell. Our drafts have underwhelmed for the last 4-5 years. That is why we are in this predicament.

Exactly.

TJ Watt and Ramzyck could have been the pick.

Smh.

Watt is a pretty safe pick too.

Comes from a good football family.

Productive in college.

High character.

Talented.

But, went after a head case.

Anyone that didn’t believe this guy was a head case, go watch his interviews, just on that alone was telling me this guy should not have been the pick.

 

[justafan]

I always try not to expect anything from rookies. I hope they get playing time and develop into a player but its a crapshoot,you never know just how bad they want to succeed or how their football intelligence will translate to the pros.

I do know you dont get to the SB without good depth. Hopefully they will make a difference playing a part as backups or special teams even if they dont become what we hope for. Its still to early to call them busts.

 

[KiwiHawk]

The Blair pick was very discouraging to see, especially after they traded for Quandre Diggs.

In your world does April come after October? Because otherwise we got Blair *before* Diggs, not after.

No, why go after Diggs if you have Blair??

It’s cause Blair isn’t ready to play or is not the player they thought he would be.

What I’m saying is, we could have gotten an immediate contributor.

If you wanted Diggs anyways and we’re gonna trade for a safety, you shouldn’t have drafted Blair, at least not so early.

Because rookies rarely come out of the box ready to start in the NFL. If they do, fantastic, but it's not the norm. In Diggs, the Seahawks saw the opportunity to get an impact player they wanted for little risk. Diggs can play all the DB positions.

The other reason why? John Schneider *never* stops building.

 

[jammerhawk]

Both guys are hard to judge at the moment.

Blair flashed massive potential in his brief appearances in the lineup. He looks like a guy who needs some time to learn the scheme before he can be trusted on the field. I wouldn't be shocked if he pulls a Kam and becomes a valuable starter in his second season.

Collier is anyone's guess. I'm personally of the belief that Seattle was expecting Montez Sweat to fall to them, when Washington grabbed him they panicked into taking the only other viable DE option. It's the only rational explanation I can think of to explain the pick. Collier at the time wasn't really a need; we had/have a ton of guys on the roster with a similar skill set, but we really had no speed rushers out outside of Martin.

If Montez Sweat was the preferred choice they should have just taken him at 21, and forgot all the trade down crap they do every year. What is so wrong with grabbing a guy to replace Clark on a rookie contract. They still had pick 30 to do the trade down stuff. I really liked what I saw in Sweat the few times I saw him in college. He had 7 sacks his rookie year on a crap team. What number would he have had with Clowney on the other side? Who knows.

This is also not the first time. They traded down in 2017 passing on both TJ Watt for DE and Ramczyk for OT. Instead they went for a head case in McDowell. Our drafts have underwhelmed for the last 4-5 years. That is why we are in this predicament.

Exactly.

TJ Watt and Ramzyck could have been the pick.

Smh.

Watt is a pretty safe pick too.

Comes from a good football family.

Productive in college.

High character.

Talented.

But, went after a head case.

Anyone that didn’t believe this guy was a head case, go watch his interviews, just on that alone was telling me this guy should not have been the pick.

 

[lukerguy]

In a way this is true. The Hawks are the only team I know who take 1/2 round guys without the intention to start.

 

[DomeHawk]

The Blair pick was very discouraging to see, especially after they traded for Quandre Diggs.

In your world does April come after October? Because otherwise we got Blair *before* Diggs, not after.

No, why go after Diggs if you have Blair??

It’s cause Blair isn’t ready to play or is not the player they thought he would be.

What I’m saying is, we could have gotten an immediate contributor.

If you wanted Diggs anyways and we’re gonna trade for a safety, you shouldn’t have drafted Blair, at least not so early.

Because rookies rarely come out of the box ready to start in the NFL. If they do, fantastic, but it's not the norm. In Diggs, the Seahawks saw the opportunity to get an impact player they wanted for little risk. Diggs can play all the DB positions.

The other reason why? John Schneider *never* stops building.

You're lumping all "rookies" together, especially 1st-rounders and many early 2nd-rounders, ARE expected to start.

 

[jammerhawk]

The Blair pick was very discouraging to see, especially after they traded for Quandre Diggs.

Either Blair is going to replace McDougald at some point or he’s never going to see the field.

I can’t see Diggs leaving. The guy is a baller.

McDougald is also a playmaker and I see no roles for Blair as long as Bradley and Quandre are on the team.

Collier, they can find a role for him but the Blair pick really sucks right now cause he’s not gonna see the field when they could have drafted a different contributor.

Smh.

Blair, was drafted before the team acquired Diggs mid-season. Diggs was initially acquired to be a NCB but he was to Pete more valuable to the team as FS after Thompson got hurt. The limited time that Blair saw the field he played creditably well, but he made mental mistakes so he was held out.

However, he either was still hurt, not practicing well, or making the same mistakes; so true to past form if you can't compete in practice you don't play. I think a healthy preseason will deliver the team a solid young safety which will be an improvement over the Thompson/Hill duo.

The same could apply to Collier but there is more mystery. It's tough to accept the FO was so very wrong on this pick. I'm not willing to say they were wrong yet but he seemed to never be in the rotation or never played better than the others when he was a dominant player in the Senior Bowl practices and game which was inconsistent with what we saw from him all season. Something wasn't right we just don't know what the deal was with him. Ultimately we need to be patient, his position is a hard position to make the transition from college to pro, and usually takes a few seasons to learn. He is a big strong kid and should be fine if his heart is into being great. Actually seeing him play some downs might be interesting.

In each case where a rookie wasn't played this season there were likely reasons know to the coaches which had more to do with the players being injured, not practicing well, or being beaten out by those who made the game active rosters. The team and the coaches would always want to play the best guys. The lessons of sitting would sting any player drafted early and who wanted to compete, i believe both do so I think we'll see happier results from them next season.

 

[sdog1981]

I know it is hard for people to hear but even in 2020 you have to give a rookie three full season before you can decide if they are a bust, a dude, or a star.

Calling a player a bust after 8 games is some ESPN Hot-Take BS.

WE DON"T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THESE PLAYERS!!!.

 

[KinesProf]

The Blair pick was very discouraging to see, especially after they traded for Quandre Diggs..

Blair was drafted well before they traded for Diggs.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

The Blair pick was very discouraging to see, especially after they traded for Quandre Diggs..

Blair was drafted well before they traded for Diggs.

Yes, I know that.

What I’m saying is, why did you draft Blair, if you’re not going to play him or develop him.

It seems like PC always wanted a suitable replacement for Earl, hence, Diggs, but if that was the case, he should have used the pick for Blair for another player.

Really, right now, Collier and Blair are real expensive backups.

Because of what you have given up (other players) that could have been playing this year helping the team.

I get that it’s too soon to tell but damn it’s frustrating not getting any value from your first and second round picks for how long now???

These picks are crucial especially towards the end of the season if you’re gonna make a run, and yes they matter, a lot!

 

[chris98251]

Blair was another player injured before he could even get started and then injured again during the season. He needs a healthy offseason and to get more of a NFL body for how he plays, this goes back to the Redshirt guy and learning curve, we will a lot more about what he brings I think next year, but he has a couple guys in front of him now that will make it harder to break thru in Diggs, McDougald, Hill and Thompson. Will have to see how that shakes out in the off season.

 

[Seanhawk]

The Blair pick was very discouraging to see, especially after they traded for Quandre Diggs..

Blair was drafted well before they traded for Diggs.

Yes, I know that.

What I’m saying is, why did you draft Blair, if you’re not going to play him or develop him.

It seems like PC always wanted a suitable replacement for Earl, hence, Diggs, but if that was the case, he should have used the pick for Blair for another player.

Really, right now, Collier and Blair are real expensive backups.

Because of what you have given up (other players) that could have been playing this year helping the team.

I get that it’s too soon to tell but damn it’s frustrating not getting any value from your first and second round picks for how long now???

These picks are crucial especially towards the end of the season if you’re gonna make a run, and yes they matter, a lot!

I don't know how you can jump to the conclusion that they aren't developing Blair. They tried playing him and maybe during that time they realized he wasn't ready yet, but they still thought they could make a run if they had improved defensive play. Hence the trade for Diggs.

 

[brimsalabim]

Count me as one who is usually upset by our trading away top picks instead of using them however we would have been better off trading these and finding away to retain Frank Clark instead.

 

[Ozzy]

The Collier pick is really frustrating. You were near the bottom of the league in sacks, your defensive line was bad outside of Clowney and he was still a healthy scratch late in the year at times. As an older first round pick, he should have been able to contribute and couldn't. People keep mentioning Greene but he was a 3rd rounder (I think) and was almost 3 years younger and wasn't a first rounder. Watching the post draft interview they looked shell shocked that 12 Dlinemen went ahead of them and they panicked with the Collier pick. Maybe he ends up being decent, I seriously hope he proves all of us wrong. Still doubt he returns first round capitol though.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

I personally believe the Collier pick was because of the failed McDowell pick.

Maybe. I think it's more likely a direct result of 'need based' drafting.

DE was a need. In 2017. In 2019 (result of failed McDowell pick in 2017, the 1 year rental of Richardson -- 2018 2nd, and the unsteady development of Rasheem Green 2018) In fact, Seattle whiffed with a ton of DL capital leading up to Collier.

But I think it's more need based related, because we whiffed multiple other years at different positions of need as well. Penny (R1, 2018), McDowell, Pocic (R2, R2 2017) - Ifedi (R1 2016). Basically the last 4 years our worst picks were always our first ones and all because we opted to shoehorn our options based on need. Leaving multiple pro bowl caliber talents on the board -- many of whom played at positions that became holes in the roster in a year or two.

I know it is hard for people to hear but even in 2020 you have to give a rookie three full season before you can decide if they are a bust, a dude, or a star.

Calling a player a bust after 8 games is some ESPN Hot-Take BS.

WE DON"T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THESE PLAYERS!!!.

I know we'd like to think this is true. I've seen this posited on this board many times. Undoubtedly because Seattle has cornered the market on R1/R2 non contributors for the league. It's understandable that we'd want to deny inconvenient truths that stare us in the face. But this idea is almost patently and totally wrong on the whole. I'm in the middle of a short study of players picked in R1/2 over the last 5 years who didn't start as many as a third of their games as a rookie. I'm updating to look at snap thresholds for rotational guys which is a bit tougher to find, but more accurate. Preliminary findings are that virtually every bust is apparent early and it's exceedingly rare for a player to become a reliable starter 3 years later. With very few exceptions, busts stay busted. And they almost all bust early.

Current values I have: If you can start 1/3 of your rookie games, you have better than 95% chance to be a 100% starter in years 2 and 3. If you don't, you're sitting around 8%. I expect that to rise as I factor in rotational value. But I'd be shocked if it even gets up to 20%.

* Note, I'm not exactly sure how to handle the McDowell case. He's not the only instance of a player who doesn't have any active games played at all. Is he a bust if he never played a down? Trying to massage the numbers due to injuries can be difficult. The math kind of breaks down when you divide by zero.

 

[Shanegotyou11]

Glad fans aren't Gm's. We would cut players after year 1 now days.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Glad fans aren't Gm's. We would cut players after year 1 now days.

You certainly don't cut high round picks during their rookie contract............but you also better pause for concern when your first and second round picks aren't starters by the end of their rookie years, especially playing literally the two most glaring needs of ours on defense, safety and D-line.

It's not like these two got drafted in 2013 having to play behind that D-line and the LOB.

 

[Appyhawk]

" They traded down in 2017 passing on both TJ Watt for DE and Ramczyk for OT."

That one hurts!
Gawd, hindsight is a rude mutha. What a difference those two would have made for us, entirely changing the situation we're in right now.

 

[mistaowen]

Blair likely takes a step forward this offseason, he has all the physical traits to be a starter but from Pete's remarks was out of position too often. It didn't seem that way in game from a fan perspective, certainly in preseason he gave up a couple big plays. It was probably recurring during practice which I know Pete takes very serious.

Collier I have no idea about. He couldn't get snaps with the worst pressuring DL in front of him but DL typically takes a season or 2 to understand at this level. Top 5 picks obviously play and learn on the fly, LJ isn't that. It is troubling they didn't feel it was worth getting him out there late in the season. I think he will need to have a terrific offseason to feel better about the pick.

I hope they take best player available this year with their haul of draft picks and not guys who may take a year or two in the system to get up to speed. Skipping Ramczyk and Watt hurts as they both likely are pushing for starting jobs their rookie season.