Mariners 2018/19 offseason thread...

[Atradees]

I was hoping for a partial rebuild. Segura was worth keeping. The Cano trade was brilliant. I just dont see this team ripped apart, leveled, destroyed.... getting better. Sadness...

 

[Bobblehead]

PHilly guy, saying how we got fleeced on the Segura deal..Seems the Phils been trying to unload those players for awhile now.. and finally had to settle for Segura and pitchers...

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Of all the trades, sounds like the worst is the Segura one.

 

[Uncle Si]

Still not sure why folks are upset with the Segura trade. Only thing it lacked was a lottery pick prospect.

Other than that seattle traded a player who has peaked for essentially the younger version and sent two crappy pitchers, one with 9 mill owed, for a veteran who should either contribute on the field or bting the team more asets (and salary space)
Its not a great trade, but seattle did fine. This is a long term move for them. Philly couldn't wait on crawford.

 

[425HawkSpark]

Still not sure why folks are upset with the Segura trade. Only thing it lacked was a lottery pick prospect.

Other than that seattle traded a player who has peaked for essentially the younger version and sent two crappy pitchers, one with 9 mill owed, for a veteran who should either contribute on the field or bting the team more asets (and salary space)
Its not a great trade, but seattle did fine. This is a long term move for them. Philly couldn't wait on crawford.

Because Crawford has hit wel in triple A or his stint in the majors. Segura was proven. I’ll pay for proven. I get Crawford is young, doesn’t mean he will live up to his expectations.

 

[Uncle Si]

Of course not. But the Ms dont want to pay for proven vets at the moment. Its a rebuild.

They want segura 2-3 years from now. They traded for what is a potential (likely) candidate, plus payroll flexibility and an asset to gain more of both.

Segura is good. Hes not great. Crawford will likely be as good, maybe better.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Yeah I have no problem moving on from Segura, just wonder if we could have gotten more. Teams almost always give up more at the deadline than they will in the off season. The trade is simple, it all comes down to JP Crawford. There are two schools of thought here. One is that he was once a top 5 prospect and can come close to that and become a great shortstop, possibly better than Segura. The other is that he has stalled out in the minors for the past three years, and struggled when he was called up to the majors, and he likely won't be in the Mariners plan when they want to compete down the line.

Decent chance Santana is flipped at some point this season. Nicasio was awful last season, but stats showed he was due for a bounce back. He was off the books in a year anyways, so I didn't really care if we kept him or not. I'll miss Pazos but he wasn't part of the long term plan here either.

I think people were hoping that we could get a young prospect who has a ton of upside. If we traded for Crawford two years ago, people would have been excited. But he has already had a few years of pretty mediocre baseball in the minors. Maybe he turns it around, we will see. Like most of these prospects, who knows how great they will become.

 

[Uncle Si]

Crawfords numbers dont show a stall... and werent mediocre (from what ive read... i admittedly cannot read baseball metrics well), his time in the majors were impacted by a wrist injury. His power numbers need to increase but everything is painting a picture of a player nearing seguras level already.

I do agree they couldve gotten more... but then you wonder if seguras market was high anyways. Attitude issues at another club, this his fifth team i think in as many years. He may be as much a risk as Crawford.

At very, very worst the Ms have procured themselves the top 6 prospects in their farm and lost on one player in Diaz anyone is truly going to miss (maybe Paxton but there is risk there with his injuries)

I do think the only way to like any of these moves is to enjoy watching a full rebuild. Diputo certainly fell short 1-2 prospects in these deals but he also clearly got the plsyers he went in for.

Hes all in.. and 2 years from now he will either be gleefully watching his project challenge for division supremacy or be updating his cv on LinkedIn

 

[Hawk-Lock]

I'm not great at reading all the new baseball stats, but his minor league stats are far from impressive. Too early to judge the kid, but I don't really see stats that show he is getting better or dominating in the minor leagues.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... awfo000jp-

 

[West TX Hawk]

I actually was reading his stats yesterday too and hitting .208 in the minors last year including .143 in the Florida State League (A) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. He has a long ways to go to get near Segura's level.

Jerry got fleeced on the Philly deal. You have an All Star 28 year old SS who's hit over .300 3 years in a row, steals bases and has developed into a pure "professional hitter" with a sweet, compact line drive stroke-there is a market. For Jerry to actually pay Philly a million, and give up Pazos (2.88 era in 50 innings last year, under club control, high 90s lefty-those don't grow on trees) and not get another prospect back was ridiculous. Jerry completely folded on that negotiation-Philly apparently balked at giving another prospect so instead of just telling Philly no and continue shopping or wait to the trade deadline next year, he just gives in. And with Santana's contract, to flip him is going to require more offset money. Just not a great trade.

I think the analysts are right--the team's primary focus is just ridding of payroll and not maximizing actual return value on prospects.

 

[Uncle Si]

I actually was reading his stats yesterday too and hitting .208 in the minors last year including .143 in the Florida State League (A) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. He has a long ways to go to get near Segura's level.

Jerry got fleeced on the Philly deal. You have an All Star 28 year old SS who's hit over .300 3 years in a row, steals bases and has developed into a pure "professional hitter" with a sweet, compact line drive stroke-there is a market. For Jerry to actually pay Philly a million, and give up Pazos (2.88 era in 50 innings last year, under club control, high 90s lefty-those don't grow on trees) and not get another prospect back was ridiculous. Jerry completely folded on that negotiation-Philly apparently balked at giving another prospect so instead of just telling Philly no and continue shopping or wait to the trade deadline next year, he just gives in. And with Santana's contract, to flip him is going to require more offset money. Just not a great trade.

I think the analysts are right--the team's primary focus is just ridding of payroll and not maximizing actual return value on prospects.

He's 28, was a problem in the locker room, and his power numbers for a short stop were meh.. Pazos throwing motion is suspect and Nicasio.. well you can assume Pazos had to be thrown in to take on his salary

in terms of Crawford, you rarely judge minor league players on batting average.

These guys sum it up better. Might not change your mind, but should give you a better understanding of the strengths of the trade.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018...-trade-seattle-mariners-philadelphia-phillies

 

[425HawkSpark]

I actually was reading his stats yesterday too and hitting .208 in the minors last year including .143 in the Florida State League (A) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. He has a long ways to go to get near Segura's level.

Jerry got fleeced on the Philly deal. You have an All Star 28 year old SS who's hit over .300 3 years in a row, steals bases and has developed into a pure "professional hitter" with a sweet, compact line drive stroke-there is a market. For Jerry to actually pay Philly a million, and give up Pazos (2.88 era in 50 innings last year, under club control, high 90s lefty-those don't grow on trees) and not get another prospect back was ridiculous. Jerry completely folded on that negotiation-Philly apparently balked at giving another prospect so instead of just telling Philly no and continue shopping or wait to the trade deadline next year, he just gives in. And with Santana's contract, to flip him is going to require more offset money. Just not a great trade.

I think the analysts are right--the team's primary focus is just ridding of payroll and not maximizing actual return value on prospects.

He's 28, was a problem in the locker room, and his power numbers for a short stop were meh.. Pazos throwing motion is suspect and Nicasio.. well you can assume Pazos had to be thrown in to take on his salary

in terms of Crawford, you rarely judge minor league players on batting average.

These guys sum it up better. Might not change your mind, but should give you a better understanding of the strengths of the trade.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018...-trade-seattle-mariners-philadelphia-phillies

You don’t have to throw in Pazos, keep Pazos and Nicasio. Trade separate at deadline and eat Nicasio money. It’s not that much and if we are going to lose why not keep and hope for return later. Crawford for segura player swap should be enough for a minor who has struggled at the higher levels.

 

[hawkfan68]

I actually was reading his stats yesterday too and hitting .208 in the minors last year including .143 in the Florida State League (A) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. He has a long ways to go to get near Segura's level.

Jerry got fleeced on the Philly deal. You have an All Star 28 year old SS who's hit over .300 3 years in a row, steals bases and has developed into a pure "professional hitter" with a sweet, compact line drive stroke-there is a market. For Jerry to actually pay Philly a million, and give up Pazos (2.88 era in 50 innings last year, under club control, high 90s lefty-those don't grow on trees) and not get another prospect back was ridiculous. Jerry completely folded on that negotiation-Philly apparently balked at giving another prospect so instead of just telling Philly no and continue shopping or wait to the trade deadline next year, he just gives in. And with Santana's contract, to flip him is going to require more offset money. Just not a great trade.

I think the analysts are right--the team's primary focus is just ridding of payroll and not maximizing actual return value on prospects.

He's 28, was a problem in the locker room, and his power numbers for a short stop were meh.. Pazos throwing motion is suspect and Nicasio.. well you can assume Pazos had to be thrown in to take on his salary

in terms of Crawford, you rarely judge minor league players on batting average.

These guys sum it up better. Might not change your mind, but should give you a better understanding of the strengths of the trade.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018...-trade-seattle-mariners-philadelphia-phillies

You don’t have to throw in Pazos, keep Pazos and Nicasio. Trade separate at deadline and eat Nicasio money. It’s not that much and if we are going to lose why not keep and hope for return later. Crawford for segura player swap should be enough for a minor who has struggled at the higher levels.

The M's won in that trade because they found a team to take deadweights in Pazos and Nicasio off their hands.

 

[Uncle Si]

I actually was reading his stats yesterday too and hitting .208 in the minors last year including .143 in the Florida State League (A) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. He has a long ways to go to get near Segura's level.

Jerry got fleeced on the Philly deal. You have an All Star 28 year old SS who's hit over .300 3 years in a row, steals bases and has developed into a pure "professional hitter" with a sweet, compact line drive stroke-there is a market. For Jerry to actually pay Philly a million, and give up Pazos (2.88 era in 50 innings last year, under club control, high 90s lefty-those don't grow on trees) and not get another prospect back was ridiculous. Jerry completely folded on that negotiation-Philly apparently balked at giving another prospect so instead of just telling Philly no and continue shopping or wait to the trade deadline next year, he just gives in. And with Santana's contract, to flip him is going to require more offset money. Just not a great trade.

I think the analysts are right--the team's primary focus is just ridding of payroll and not maximizing actual return value on prospects.

He's 28, was a problem in the locker room, and his power numbers for a short stop were meh.. Pazos throwing motion is suspect and Nicasio.. well you can assume Pazos had to be thrown in to take on his salary

in terms of Crawford, you rarely judge minor league players on batting average.

These guys sum it up better. Might not change your mind, but should give you a better understanding of the strengths of the trade.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018...-trade-seattle-mariners-philadelphia-phillies

You don’t have to throw in Pazos, keep Pazos and Nicasio. Trade separate at deadline and eat Nicasio money. It’s not that much and if we are going to lose why not keep and hope for return later. Crawford for segura player swap should be enough for a minor who has struggled at the higher levels.

The M's won in that trade because they found a team to take deadweights in Pazos and Nicasio off their hands.

thats how i saw it as well...

its certainly not a straightforward trade, with parts included assessed differently by both sides. i also think Diputo really liked Santana and Crawford, and thus feels good about adding them.

Crawfords numbers, in the summary from Lookout Landing, match with Segura in a lot of ways.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Who cares about Nicasio, he was coming off the books next season anyways. Pazos I would have liked to keep, as he was under club control for a few more years and his salary was low. I read that Lookoutlanding article when the trade happened, while it's great (like most their articles), they are trying to reach on a lot. They are basically saying that if he can become a 2 WAR for each season, the trade will likely be okay. That's understandable. It's funny, because when the rumors of this trade surfaced, the Lookoutlanding twitter was saying this would have been an awful trade. The problem with Crawford is he hasn't shown he can become an above average MLB player. He barely hit in the minors, and his short stint in MLB he had a negative WAR. I mean you can use that logic in any trade...."if player A can do this, then it will be a great trade."

If he is only a 1 WAR player by 2021, we will likely need to replace him anyways. Dipoto obviously likes Crawford. This trade will either work or it won't. Dipoto is on the line with a lot of these trades. I have no problem with him reaching on players he likes, but you need to hit on them. No different than JS reaching on Bruce Irvin or RW. I'm fine with it, but you better know what you are doing.

 

[sutz]

Divish on the Mariners farm system

Certainly, the Mariners have improved their farm system maybe from among the worst in the majors to the top 20. To get to where they want to be those who evaluate prospects say they still need a few more pieces, and that might not happen unless they trade Mitch Haniger.

The rankings he shrugged off and downplayed just over a year ago haven’t become more important to general manager Jerry Dipoto. But now you might hear him reference them a little more often, because the Mariners won’t be dead last.

Whether you believe in ranking the overall prospect talent of a team’s farm system or ranking it against the other teams’ systems, this much is clear after Dipoto’s “step back” trade-o-rama the past few weeks — the Mariners’ farm system is no longer the worst in baseball.

 

[Uncle Si]

Who cares about Nicasio, he was coming off the books next season anyways. Pazos I would have liked to keep, as he was under club control for a few more years and his salary was low. I read that Lookoutlanding article when the trade happened, while it's great (like most their articles), they are trying to reach on a lot. They are basically saying that if he can become a 2 WAR for each season, the trade will likely be okay. That's understandable. It's funny, because when the rumors of this trade surfaced, the Lookoutlanding twitter was saying this would have been an awful trade. The problem with Crawford is he hasn't shown he can become an above average MLB player. He barely hit in the minors, and his short stint in MLB he had a negative WAR. I mean you can use that logic in any trade...."if player A can do this, then it will be a great trade."

If he is only a 1 WAR player by 2021, we will likely need to replace him anyways. Dipoto obviously likes Crawford. This trade will either work or it won't. Dipoto is on the line with a lot of these trades. I have no problem with him reaching on players he likes, but you need to hit on them. No different than JS reaching on Bruce Irvin or RW. I'm fine with it, but you better know what you are doing.

Ive really enjoyed their coverage of the last few weeks... but the real good stuff is in the comments.

Crawfords 2 WAR is what they think his projection will be this year as well. His short stint in the majors included a broken bone in his hand. Me may never be more than average... but his tools and skillset are very promising.

You nailed it with Dipoto. Hes all in on these players. Whether he knows what hes doing or not is another story. But im optimistic in the process because he clearly identified these prospects long in advance.

These are the players he wants. His job is tied to their development.

If it works, he could have a solid with some spectacular core of young players and all kinds of cash for free agents

 

[getnasty]

Mitch Haniger turns 28 in a couple of week, it's gonna be at least 4 years before this team has a shot at being good, I think he needs to be shopped as well. His value is never going to be higher then it is right now, might as well keep rolling.

 

[West TX Hawk]

Edwin Encarnacion traded to Seattle for Santana. Encarnacion, 35, has 1 year, $20 mil left with a $25 mil club option for '20 or $5 mil buyout. Could be a good trade deadline piece. 3 team trade with Rays, M's also receive a compensatory pick.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mariners/sta ... gr%5Etweet
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.co ... s.amp.html

 

[Uncle Si]

Edwin Encarnacion traded to Seattle for Santana. Encarnacion, 35, has 1 year, $20 mil left with a $25 mil club option for '20 or $5 mil buyout. Could be a good trade deadline piece. 3 team trade with Rays, M's also receive a compensatory pick.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mariners/sta ... gr%5Etweet
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.co ... s.amp.html

So Santana for a 2nd/3rd round pick and whatever prospects Encarnacion brings next week, which might be to the Rays already.

Plus the salary dump.

Not bad