Hawknballs
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Seahawks:
Pass Offense: 26
Rush Offense: 4
Total Offense: 17
Scoring: 6
Pass Defense: 1
Rush Defense: 7
Total Defense: 1
Scoring: 1
Turnover Differential: +20
Broncos:
Pass Offense: 1
Rush Offense: 15
Total Offense: 1
Scoring: 1
Pass Defense: 27
Rush Defense: 7
Total Defense: 19
Scoring: 22
Turnover Differential:0
Vegas Early Spread:
Opened as Seattle -1.5, has changed to Denver -2
Denver O vs Seattle D:
The first thing that stood out to me was that Denver was only even in it’s turnover differential. It was interesting to find that it wasn’t really due to interceptions given how much they throw the ball, but that they fumble the ball quite a bit. Peyton Manning dropped five himself – something to keep in mind with our fast pass-rushers, namely Bennett and Avril, who love to go after that strip sack. Manning expects to be well protected, and to have the time he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. Everyone has been talking all week about how important it is to get him off his spot, but I’m of the belief that the much bigger threat Seattle poses is getting a hand on the football before he’s ready to throw it. It might be too much to ask to get him out of the pocket, let alone sack him before he gets rid of the ball, but if our defense can buy our guys enough time, I could see us getting a hand on the ball or arm and causing some fumbles that could dramatically change this game.
I think more important than the narrative of “Number One Offense vs. Number One Defense” is going to be the number one red zone offense vs. number one red zone defense. It’s going to be tough even for a great defense to disallow Peyton manning and the statistically best offense ever getting their yards. Keeping drives alive is what Manning has always done best. The important task for our defense is to not let them score quickly, make sure their drives, if we cannot stop them, at least take time off the clock – and then when they get into the red zone, hold them to a field goal or force a critical turn-over. Being in the Red Zone gives our fast defense much more flexibility, and if we are going to see the Seahawks rush more than four at manning, this is where I see us doing it.
Manning has an average of 8.3 yards per pass. But it’s also important to note that 2,076 of his passing yards are “YAC” yards, yards his receivers gained after catching the football (in comparison to Seattle, at 699 and Wilson with a 8.25 yards per pass number). Statistically speaking Seattle allows 5.8 yards per pass completion, best in the league. Our guys are simply really fast and good at stopping plays from breaking on them, and I think that this will especially help in the red zone. Demaryius Thomas was second in the league with 633 YAC yards, and averaged 15.5 yards per catch. Take away those YAC yards and his average is almost halved, meaning that most of his catches are going to be within 10 yards, but because of his size he’s able to battle ahead for more yards almost every time he touches the ball. I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that against our defense. Even if they move him away from Sherman and play him on the left, don’t overlook the size of Byron Maxwell. At 6’1” 205 he only really lacks a little of Sherman’s length. Thomas carved up New England in the AFC championship game, but he was also matched up with Alfonzo Dennard most of the contest, a 5’10 190 lb corner. Against the 6’3” 230 lb Thomas it was a mismatch that Denver abused all day.
I think Denver will try to use Demaryius in the slot a lot, but I don’t know how well that will work out for him. It gives him an advantage over Thurmond who is our smaller corner (still larger than Dennard) while also exposing him to our linebackers, who can help out in the coverage. This also means Welker will be out wide and he can’t like how he matches up against any of our corners. One option would be to flex Welker but that pretty much removes part of the idea of the flex, which is flexing a tight end to create some question that you might run the ball. I’m not sure how often Denver puts TE Julius Thomas out wide but that might be one of their best options to match our defense, at least in 4 WR sets. I sure hope Denver tries one of their pick plays against Kam Chancellor, though.
As far as Denver’s running game, they could have some success. We saw the Saints run the ball well early against us for some good chunks. The same could happen in the first half of this game but I don’t see that continuing to the second half. I’m not necessarily worried about their run game but I also wouldn’t count it out as a factor. Manning and the coaches on that team are smart enough to know that there is no way to beat our defense if they just line up and throw the ball every down.
Denver D vs Seattle O:
On the flip side is Denver’s defense vs. our offense. A couple key points I want to just get out there:
1.) Our offense isn’t as “bad” as it’s looked; it looks exactly like an otherwise decent run-first offense lacking a true #1 wide receiver with a couple of questions on the O-line should look when going up against a steady stream of the league’s best defenses building on eachother’s film study looks.
2.) Denver’s defense isn’t as “average” as it looks; it’s not great but the numbers are skewed a bit by often being ahead. “pass defense” for the Seahawks defense is much more significant because of closer games vs. the Broncos who score a lot and force a team to pass, for better or for worse. Their rush defense is probably higher ranked than it should be for the same reason.
This being said, Denver wasn’t exactly blowing out every opponent by half time. In fact it’s pretty remarkable how close many of their games were in the third quarter, before turnovers by teams frantically trying to keep up made hideous mistakes that turned these close games into Denver blowouts:
· In week 2, the Broncos and Giants were locked up 17-16 in the third quarter before Eli Manning began his 2013 Interceptionathon.
· Denver only led Jacksonville 21-19 at the same point in the third quarter in week six and followed that up with a loss to Indianapolis.
· In week 5, the Broncos barely survived a shoot-out with the awful Cowboys 51-48
· The Redskins (yes the redskins) were beating the Broncos 21-7 at this same point in the third quarter in week 8 before once again the opposing quarterbacks fell apart and denver exploded for four fourth-quarter touchdowns.
· In week 10 they held on to defeat the chargers 28-20
· Denver and Kansas city were tied in the 3rd 21-all in week 12
· In week 13 the Titans were hanging with the broncos 34-28, before a pair of turnovers by the Titans allowed Denver to lay on the points
· Another close game with San Diego, this one resulting in a loss at home for the Broncos
· In week 15, the two-win Texans only trialed denver 16-13 going into the fourth quarter. What happened? Yes, you guessed it – a pair of interceptions put the game away in Denver’s favor.
Yes, Denver was dominant all season long – but they were not undefeated and they played closer games than many of their final scores indicate. SEATTLE DOES NOT TURN THE BALL OVER LIKE THIS. If there’s one thing about our team that can be frustrating but is also the reason we are where we are it’s because we are not careless with the football no matter the situation. Even down 21-0 to Tampa, there were no careless or erratic plays.
This would be a much different game I think if Denver’s secondary wasn’t beat up and long in the tooth. Champ Bailey who will start, and Quentin Jammer who will play some nickel are 35 and 34 respectively. While they are smart CBs, they don’t match up very well physically with guys like Tate and Baldwin who aren’t big but are tough and quick if not speedy. Rodgers-Cromartie has had a decent year bit isn’t the guy he was in Arizona. FS Mike Adams is also 32 so he has a lot of experience playing this game but wasn’t much of a factor I saw in watching the Broncos playoff games. He also lost the SS job to Duke Ihenacho, and both players are in mostly due to injuries and poor play from Rahim Moore. To me the Denver secondary just feels a little unsettled.
At LB the obvious piece they are missing is Von Miller. I’d be much more concerned about this game if he were playing.
Overall I feel like the Seahawks will have some opportunities against this defense, especially in the passing game where the speed of guys like Tate and especially Harvin could make things really hard on some older secondary players who might have great heads for the game but lack the ability to match the physicality of our receivers who love making big plays.
Because this is the superbowl, and we got here doing what we do, I don’t see us going to the air early, but if the run game just isn’t panning out I wouldn’t be surprised to see Russell Wilson sling the ball. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Wilson throw for 270+ yards. I also thing this is a game where Wilson needs to step up and run the ball more, early and often as it will only help open things up in the passing game we might need later to keep up with the Broncos’ ability to score points. Give the defense something to think about. Couple that lack of speed in the secondary with the hesitation of covering the flats and spying the QB, suddenly our smaller shifty receivers will be wide open.
Special Teams:
Our special teams coverage has been good all year. Trindon Holliday is obviously a huge factor to account for. Kickoffs will need to be put through the end zone, and punts need to be handled like they have all year long with our great placement and coverage.
One interesting fact, and one reason to think Percy Harvin SHOULD be returning kicks, and could be huge factor in doing so: Denver is last in the league allowing 29.3 yards per kickoff return. They are a little better against punts, allowing 10 yards a return. But that’s still 10th worst. Seattle Isn’t great on kickoffs, 13th worst at 24 yards per return, but they’ve also only given up a long of 40 and 0 touchdowns. Seattle is 2nd best in punt yard average at 3.9 yards per return and a long of 32, with 0 touchdowns allowed. Seattle is consistently good against punts, and a high average but a lock of any long returns tells me that seattle’s kick coverage is more consistent, and therefore, pretty good. Denver on the other hand being poor in both categories tells me this is a weakness for them, especially given that they play in mile-high denver where almost every kickoff goes out of the endzone.
End result, I think the Special Teams game is definitely in Seattle’s favor, but don’t’ count out Holliday who has a knack for making big plays in big games.
The Pick:
In the end I see a semi-close game but I think the strength-on-strength of the Broncos offense vs. the Seahawks defense eventually tips in our favor in the red zone by forcing field goals and possibly turnovers. Our offense will capitalize on some long scoring drives, as well as some short fields thanks to the special teams game. Seattle to me is just the more balanced team on all sides of the ball. Denver’s stellar offense is enough to keep it close, but in the end the Seattle Seahawks will bring home their first Lombardi trophy to a parade of 12’s. We begin to hear the 2013 Seahawks mentioned in the same light as the 2000 Ravens and ’85 Bears.
Seahawks 30
Broncos 23
MVP prediction:
As much as I want to go with a defensive player, or a wild card like Percy Harvin, I think it will be Russell Wilson. A great overall team effort on defense will overshadow any single defensive standout, and while I really believe Harvin will have an impact on the game I think he’d need to have more than an explosive play or two to unseat Wilson, whom I see playing very well on the big stage. We are used to his crazy escapability but I think under the spotlight it’s amplified and he makes a couple key TD passes. As the QB opposite Manning, if we win I think it’s going to be too hard to not go to him. If not Wilson, then probably Lynch. Really whichever guy drives our offense. I haven’t talked about Lynch much in this breakdown but for a few reasons; I think the defense will be keying on Lynch all game and will do a decent job of containing him. I see him going for say 85 tough yards but maybe not having some of the beast-mode plays we’re accustomed too. The weakness of Denver’s defense is the secondary. Their front 7 has done a pretty good job all year against the run and lot of their preparation for Blount and the Patriots in the AFC title game carries over for them.
Pass Offense: 26
Rush Offense: 4
Total Offense: 17
Scoring: 6
Pass Defense: 1
Rush Defense: 7
Total Defense: 1
Scoring: 1
Turnover Differential: +20
Broncos:
Pass Offense: 1
Rush Offense: 15
Total Offense: 1
Scoring: 1
Pass Defense: 27
Rush Defense: 7
Total Defense: 19
Scoring: 22
Turnover Differential:0
Vegas Early Spread:
Opened as Seattle -1.5, has changed to Denver -2
Denver O vs Seattle D:
The first thing that stood out to me was that Denver was only even in it’s turnover differential. It was interesting to find that it wasn’t really due to interceptions given how much they throw the ball, but that they fumble the ball quite a bit. Peyton Manning dropped five himself – something to keep in mind with our fast pass-rushers, namely Bennett and Avril, who love to go after that strip sack. Manning expects to be well protected, and to have the time he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. Everyone has been talking all week about how important it is to get him off his spot, but I’m of the belief that the much bigger threat Seattle poses is getting a hand on the football before he’s ready to throw it. It might be too much to ask to get him out of the pocket, let alone sack him before he gets rid of the ball, but if our defense can buy our guys enough time, I could see us getting a hand on the ball or arm and causing some fumbles that could dramatically change this game.
I think more important than the narrative of “Number One Offense vs. Number One Defense” is going to be the number one red zone offense vs. number one red zone defense. It’s going to be tough even for a great defense to disallow Peyton manning and the statistically best offense ever getting their yards. Keeping drives alive is what Manning has always done best. The important task for our defense is to not let them score quickly, make sure their drives, if we cannot stop them, at least take time off the clock – and then when they get into the red zone, hold them to a field goal or force a critical turn-over. Being in the Red Zone gives our fast defense much more flexibility, and if we are going to see the Seahawks rush more than four at manning, this is where I see us doing it.
Manning has an average of 8.3 yards per pass. But it’s also important to note that 2,076 of his passing yards are “YAC” yards, yards his receivers gained after catching the football (in comparison to Seattle, at 699 and Wilson with a 8.25 yards per pass number). Statistically speaking Seattle allows 5.8 yards per pass completion, best in the league. Our guys are simply really fast and good at stopping plays from breaking on them, and I think that this will especially help in the red zone. Demaryius Thomas was second in the league with 633 YAC yards, and averaged 15.5 yards per catch. Take away those YAC yards and his average is almost halved, meaning that most of his catches are going to be within 10 yards, but because of his size he’s able to battle ahead for more yards almost every time he touches the ball. I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that against our defense. Even if they move him away from Sherman and play him on the left, don’t overlook the size of Byron Maxwell. At 6’1” 205 he only really lacks a little of Sherman’s length. Thomas carved up New England in the AFC championship game, but he was also matched up with Alfonzo Dennard most of the contest, a 5’10 190 lb corner. Against the 6’3” 230 lb Thomas it was a mismatch that Denver abused all day.
I think Denver will try to use Demaryius in the slot a lot, but I don’t know how well that will work out for him. It gives him an advantage over Thurmond who is our smaller corner (still larger than Dennard) while also exposing him to our linebackers, who can help out in the coverage. This also means Welker will be out wide and he can’t like how he matches up against any of our corners. One option would be to flex Welker but that pretty much removes part of the idea of the flex, which is flexing a tight end to create some question that you might run the ball. I’m not sure how often Denver puts TE Julius Thomas out wide but that might be one of their best options to match our defense, at least in 4 WR sets. I sure hope Denver tries one of their pick plays against Kam Chancellor, though.
As far as Denver’s running game, they could have some success. We saw the Saints run the ball well early against us for some good chunks. The same could happen in the first half of this game but I don’t see that continuing to the second half. I’m not necessarily worried about their run game but I also wouldn’t count it out as a factor. Manning and the coaches on that team are smart enough to know that there is no way to beat our defense if they just line up and throw the ball every down.
Denver D vs Seattle O:
On the flip side is Denver’s defense vs. our offense. A couple key points I want to just get out there:
1.) Our offense isn’t as “bad” as it’s looked; it looks exactly like an otherwise decent run-first offense lacking a true #1 wide receiver with a couple of questions on the O-line should look when going up against a steady stream of the league’s best defenses building on eachother’s film study looks.
2.) Denver’s defense isn’t as “average” as it looks; it’s not great but the numbers are skewed a bit by often being ahead. “pass defense” for the Seahawks defense is much more significant because of closer games vs. the Broncos who score a lot and force a team to pass, for better or for worse. Their rush defense is probably higher ranked than it should be for the same reason.
This being said, Denver wasn’t exactly blowing out every opponent by half time. In fact it’s pretty remarkable how close many of their games were in the third quarter, before turnovers by teams frantically trying to keep up made hideous mistakes that turned these close games into Denver blowouts:
· In week 2, the Broncos and Giants were locked up 17-16 in the third quarter before Eli Manning began his 2013 Interceptionathon.
· Denver only led Jacksonville 21-19 at the same point in the third quarter in week six and followed that up with a loss to Indianapolis.
· In week 5, the Broncos barely survived a shoot-out with the awful Cowboys 51-48
· The Redskins (yes the redskins) were beating the Broncos 21-7 at this same point in the third quarter in week 8 before once again the opposing quarterbacks fell apart and denver exploded for four fourth-quarter touchdowns.
· In week 10 they held on to defeat the chargers 28-20
· Denver and Kansas city were tied in the 3rd 21-all in week 12
· In week 13 the Titans were hanging with the broncos 34-28, before a pair of turnovers by the Titans allowed Denver to lay on the points
· Another close game with San Diego, this one resulting in a loss at home for the Broncos
· In week 15, the two-win Texans only trialed denver 16-13 going into the fourth quarter. What happened? Yes, you guessed it – a pair of interceptions put the game away in Denver’s favor.
Yes, Denver was dominant all season long – but they were not undefeated and they played closer games than many of their final scores indicate. SEATTLE DOES NOT TURN THE BALL OVER LIKE THIS. If there’s one thing about our team that can be frustrating but is also the reason we are where we are it’s because we are not careless with the football no matter the situation. Even down 21-0 to Tampa, there were no careless or erratic plays.
This would be a much different game I think if Denver’s secondary wasn’t beat up and long in the tooth. Champ Bailey who will start, and Quentin Jammer who will play some nickel are 35 and 34 respectively. While they are smart CBs, they don’t match up very well physically with guys like Tate and Baldwin who aren’t big but are tough and quick if not speedy. Rodgers-Cromartie has had a decent year bit isn’t the guy he was in Arizona. FS Mike Adams is also 32 so he has a lot of experience playing this game but wasn’t much of a factor I saw in watching the Broncos playoff games. He also lost the SS job to Duke Ihenacho, and both players are in mostly due to injuries and poor play from Rahim Moore. To me the Denver secondary just feels a little unsettled.
At LB the obvious piece they are missing is Von Miller. I’d be much more concerned about this game if he were playing.
Overall I feel like the Seahawks will have some opportunities against this defense, especially in the passing game where the speed of guys like Tate and especially Harvin could make things really hard on some older secondary players who might have great heads for the game but lack the ability to match the physicality of our receivers who love making big plays.
Because this is the superbowl, and we got here doing what we do, I don’t see us going to the air early, but if the run game just isn’t panning out I wouldn’t be surprised to see Russell Wilson sling the ball. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Wilson throw for 270+ yards. I also thing this is a game where Wilson needs to step up and run the ball more, early and often as it will only help open things up in the passing game we might need later to keep up with the Broncos’ ability to score points. Give the defense something to think about. Couple that lack of speed in the secondary with the hesitation of covering the flats and spying the QB, suddenly our smaller shifty receivers will be wide open.
Special Teams:
Our special teams coverage has been good all year. Trindon Holliday is obviously a huge factor to account for. Kickoffs will need to be put through the end zone, and punts need to be handled like they have all year long with our great placement and coverage.
One interesting fact, and one reason to think Percy Harvin SHOULD be returning kicks, and could be huge factor in doing so: Denver is last in the league allowing 29.3 yards per kickoff return. They are a little better against punts, allowing 10 yards a return. But that’s still 10th worst. Seattle Isn’t great on kickoffs, 13th worst at 24 yards per return, but they’ve also only given up a long of 40 and 0 touchdowns. Seattle is 2nd best in punt yard average at 3.9 yards per return and a long of 32, with 0 touchdowns allowed. Seattle is consistently good against punts, and a high average but a lock of any long returns tells me that seattle’s kick coverage is more consistent, and therefore, pretty good. Denver on the other hand being poor in both categories tells me this is a weakness for them, especially given that they play in mile-high denver where almost every kickoff goes out of the endzone.
End result, I think the Special Teams game is definitely in Seattle’s favor, but don’t’ count out Holliday who has a knack for making big plays in big games.
The Pick:
In the end I see a semi-close game but I think the strength-on-strength of the Broncos offense vs. the Seahawks defense eventually tips in our favor in the red zone by forcing field goals and possibly turnovers. Our offense will capitalize on some long scoring drives, as well as some short fields thanks to the special teams game. Seattle to me is just the more balanced team on all sides of the ball. Denver’s stellar offense is enough to keep it close, but in the end the Seattle Seahawks will bring home their first Lombardi trophy to a parade of 12’s. We begin to hear the 2013 Seahawks mentioned in the same light as the 2000 Ravens and ’85 Bears.
Seahawks 30
Broncos 23
MVP prediction:
As much as I want to go with a defensive player, or a wild card like Percy Harvin, I think it will be Russell Wilson. A great overall team effort on defense will overshadow any single defensive standout, and while I really believe Harvin will have an impact on the game I think he’d need to have more than an explosive play or two to unseat Wilson, whom I see playing very well on the big stage. We are used to his crazy escapability but I think under the spotlight it’s amplified and he makes a couple key TD passes. As the QB opposite Manning, if we win I think it’s going to be too hard to not go to him. If not Wilson, then probably Lynch. Really whichever guy drives our offense. I haven’t talked about Lynch much in this breakdown but for a few reasons; I think the defense will be keying on Lynch all game and will do a decent job of containing him. I see him going for say 85 tough yards but maybe not having some of the beast-mode plays we’re accustomed too. The weakness of Denver’s defense is the secondary. Their front 7 has done a pretty good job all year against the run and lot of their preparation for Blount and the Patriots in the AFC title game carries over for them.
