My Pessimistic View of our Cap Situation

[kf3339]

Decided to finally stop lurking....

Not too worried at this point. There will always be players who leave that I wish the Seahawks could keep. In responding to the original post worrying about 30 million in cap room for 2015, here are my thoughts. If we cut Clemons, Rice and Bryant this year there will be about 7.6 million in dead money along with the cap savings (provided all players are cut before June 1st). We can't spend that this year, but this becomes available in 2015. Currently the cap hits for Okung and Harvin drop by a combined 4.5 million in 2015. Cliff Avril counts for 9.25 million against the cap in 2014, but is a free agent afterwards. If we don't cut Miller this year, we could cut him next year and save 5 million. As much as it pains me to say it, I believe Lynch will also be cut after 2014, as his salary in 2015 will be 9.0 million, and cutting him would result in a savings of 7.5 million. This results in about 33.8 million in cap room, doesn't factor in an increase to the salary cap due to new TV revenue and only results in the loss of 3 players and 1 million in dead money. I think this gives JS/PC a number of options moving forward.

Welcome to the board!

 

[CANHawk]

I know that OP specifically said he didn't want to hear about "in PCJS I trust", but... I do.

I'm not thinking that they somehow find a magic solution that keeps this team together in it's current form mind you. I believe that they will be able to field a team that is just as competitive. People will be leaving. I know that and I'm at peace with that. As i see it, the only pieces that are truly vital at this point are Russell Wilson and Earl Thomas. They are the lynchpins that allow us to do what we do on offense and defense respectively. To a much lesser extent I might add Russell Okung, Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner to that group of vital pieces (Okung mainly because with there we're drafting, we're not ever going to get another opportunity at a LT of his caliber without paying them a buttload of money anyway). I really want to include Sherman into that vital category, and his play more than warrants it, but I think through scheme we would be able to overcome his departure (we wouldn't be as good, but we wouldn't be as terrible as people think).

For everyone else... I think there's going to be cost effective options available to replace them. Now, that's not to say they're ALL going to go. Our FO guys will make decisions based on a cost benefit analysis of what each player brings to that table and make the decision to retain or part with that player. If people are allowed to leave, it will because they weren't worth the money... and I'm okay with that.

People really seem to be up in arms about the possibility of Michael Bennett leaving. I think he's a phenomenal player and would be happy as anyone to hear we found a way financially to retain him, but we have a potentially great successor for that position waiting in the wings. Greg Scruggs is a very similar player to what Bennett brings. He's also a little bigger and a little stronger, so (in theory) he should be able to fill that 5-tech role on a 3 down basis, allowing us to part with Red as well. Or, depending on how Jesse Williams pans out, they might find their way into a similar rotation as Bennett and Bryant had this year. I can see us sending Clem out to pasture (love that guy too) and rolling with a NASCAR front of Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin on the outsides with Scruggs and McDonald on the inside. We'll survive. I'm not too worried.

We'll be able to afford another year of Sherman and Lynch with the current structure I'm sure. What that allows though is another red shirt development year for Christine Michael and Tharold Simon, who could very well become successors to those particular household names (for a fraction of the cost).

Next year we'll be absolutely fine and should (will) be challenging for another title. After that, there will more than likely be some substantial change, but I can't see us becoming irrelevant. The stars we have NOW were 5th round and up developmental guys. I totally have faith that JS & co. will be able to bring in more guys to supplement the core.

 

[Largent80]

We may just see the last Lynch season coming up.

It is truly remarkable to watch our F.O. wave the magic wand. and I have zero doubts that we are going to be fine.

 

[JMR]

We certainly have some tough decisions to make in upcoming off-seasons, but I don't see much point in accelerating all of that to present day and getting all worried about it. This is a good problem to have, after all.

It is going to make financial sense to let go of some high priced players that can be replaced by much less expensive ones, and that is exactly what the front office will do in order to keep the core of the team together and continue to give us the best chance to win. It's going to hurt, but we'll have to do it. Marshawn Lynch is already at the point in terms of # of carries where most RBs see their effectiveness fall off a cliff. He'll probably be over 2000 career carries after the '14 season, and it's unlikely he'll be worth his contract when we'll be able to get same production from younger & cheaper guys behind him. You certainly aren't going to pay Lynch big money at the expense of re-signing Russell Wilson or Earl Thomas or Sherm.

Tough decisions but only from the emotional standpoint. JS will get over the emotion and do what's best for the team.

 

[Scottemojo]

Anyone remember John Schneider saying in his very first presser that is exactly where we wanted to be? Everyone coveting our players and having to let some of them go? I do.

 

[JMR]

Anyone remember John Schneider saying in his very first presser that is exactly where we wanted to be? Everyone coveting our players and having to let some of them go? I do.

Yep, and it's really a validation of our organization's talent evaluation process under JS. Unless we think he and his team have just been lucky up to this point, the embarrassment of riches we currently enjoy should reassure our fanbase that we'll replenish the talent we are unable to re-sign.

 

[CANHawk]

Anyone remember John Schneider saying in his very first presser that is exactly where we wanted to be? Everyone coveting our players and having to let some of them go? I do.

Absolutely I remember that statement. That's why I'm totally okay with it...

 

[CANHawk]

Anyone remember John Schneider saying in his very first presser that is exactly where we wanted to be? Everyone coveting our players and having to let some of them go? I do.

Yep, and it's really a validation of our organization's talent evaluation process under JS. Unless we think he and his team have just been lucky up to this point, the embarrassment of riches we currently enjoy should reassure our fanbase that we'll replenish the talent we are unable to re-sign.

Exactamundo. That point is twofold; 1) they've proven time and again that they can find talent in the mid rounds and develop it into starting caliber talent and 2) if other teams are going to go through the effort of out-bidding us for our guys, they're doing it to make them starters, hence comp picks. You give John Schneider a stack of 3rd round comp picks, you can guaran-damn-tee that a couple starters will come out of it (as well as some bums who wind up in Detroit).

 

[Tical21]

I know that OP specifically said he didn't want to hear about "in PCJS I trust", but... I do.

I just wanted to clarify that in no way did that statement signify any kind of lack of trust with Schneider. Of course, I think they're brilliant, I just wanted to steer the tread to more of an objective discussion than getting 100 replies of "don't worry, John Schneider will find a way to get them all signed."

 

[CANHawk]

I know that OP specifically said he didn't want to hear about "in PCJS I trust", but... I do.

I just wanted to clarify that in no way did that statement signify any kind of lack of trust with Schneider. Of course, I think they're brilliant, I just wanted to steer the tread to more of an objective discussion than getting 100 replies of "don't worry, John Schneider will find a way to get them all signed."

I know. And good plan, because you probably were going to get slammed with those.

I was just making the point that, while we're not likely to see this team in it's exact form, Pete and John will always keep us competitive. "Win Forever" and all that shit...
:th2thumbs:

 

[SDHawk]

Anyone remember John Schneider saying in his very first presser that is exactly where we wanted to be? Everyone coveting our players and having to let some of them go? I do.

Anyone also remember our cap-ologist, John Izdik leaving for the Jets last offseason?

 

[mikeak]

Can you name a team besides GB and NE that have done it consistently better over the last seven years who are still in great cap shape?

NO

But I am going to say almost irrelevant. Look at Peyton Manning and the Colts without him and Denver when Peyton was shut-down. Crappy teams

So to say that the NE and GB are the best run teams in the league is to me incorrect. They have two of the best five QBs in the league and they are good as a result of this. NE has been doing a pretty crappy job of drafting players.

While most fanbases would be very happy with the result of these two teams the last few years I think you will find that most fans of these team believe that they are not accomplishing what they should. GB has been shredded in the post-season as a result of a bad defense and NE has been stopped due to the lack of an overall good team.

 

[mikeak]

They couldn't sign Sherman to an extension until this year. And it's NEVER a bad to sign Percy Harvin because as you see he changes the entire game and our entire offense just by stepping on the field.

1) We hardly spent any money on Harvin this year. Go back and look at the contract details and you will see that the spend is only a couple of millions. The true cap hit is coming which makes it exactly what I said - money that could have gone to other players like Sherman

2) Unused Cap money rolls over so money not spent last year would be there this and next year for players like Sherman (I am well aware that he couldn't be resigned until now but you missed the point about money rolling over)

3) Harvin is a premier player. Harvin is probably worth the money he received. Harvin was worth the draft picks we gave up. This does not change the fact that I will not agree with the decision to tie that amount of cap money into a WR. Especially not when a 1st and 3rd round WR would have cost us a $2-3million per year and not closer to $12 million.

I know you are a huge fan of Harvin and have defended him against everyone. Please note that my post doesn't discredit him and I have agreed with you and others that he is a difference maker. I simply don't think he is worth the money he is making when I compare it to what it does to other pieces of this team and where that money can be spent. I think that we with $3-$4million WRs are a superbowl contender every year if we spend the rest of the money right.

 

[DavidSeven]

Can you name a team besides GB and NE that have done it consistently better over the last seven years who are still in great cap shape?

NO

But I am going to say almost irrelevant. Look at Peyton Manning and the Colts without him and Denver when Peyton was shut-down. Crappy teams

So to say that the NE and GB are the best run teams in the league is to me incorrect. They have two of the best five QBs in the league and they are good as a result of this. NE has been doing a pretty crappy job of drafting players.

While most fanbases would be very happy with the result of these two teams the last few years I think you will find that most fans of these team believe that they are not accomplishing what they should. GB has been shredded in the post-season as a result of a bad defense and NE has been stopped due to the lack of an overall good team.

If you're expecting the Seahawks to maintain a stacked roster of fully developed players for the next five consecutive years, then that's a mistake. Nearly impossible in the flat cap era. Best you can do is strike gold on a handful of superstars and keep churning the rest of your roster. The only alternative is to blow things up and go into another 4-year rebuild process or use up your cap on a bunch of mid-level players w/o any true stars (e.g. Dallas and Washington).

Green Bay and NE haven't drafted well lately, and that's been there problem. That doesn't mean their cap approach is incorrect or that they're poorly run. You can't argue with sustained success. Imagine if we followed their approach but drafted a lot better than they have.

Re: Harvin. We're not committed to him forever. 2016 is the first year when the cap gets tight, and that's the first year we can cut him for meaningful savings ($8M). His contract doesn't dictate that we lose any of The Big 3. Front office knows what it's doing.

 

[Largent80]

Regarding Harvin. This man put the coffin nail in the super bowl, and all of his money is worth every second of just that play alone.

 

[Tical21]

I just realized that I probably could have simplified this whole thread and said it another way.....how's this........

we're 30 million over the cap, wtf should we do now?

 

[Tical21]

I know that OP specifically said he didn't want to hear about "in PCJS I trust", but... I do.

I just wanted to clarify that in no way did that statement signify any kind of lack of trust with Schneider. Of course, I think they're brilliant, I just wanted to steer the tread to more of an objective discussion than getting 100 replies of "don't worry, John Schneider will find a way to get them all signed."

I know. And good plan, because you probably were going to get slammed with those.

I was just making the point that, while we're not likely to see this team in it's exact form, Pete and John will always keep us competitive. "Win Forever" and all that shit...
:th2thumbs:

I hear ya. I am not pessimistic about this team or our ability to field a great roster for years at all. We're going to be great as long as our core of superstars are here, as long as Schneider continues to draft and work the bargains, and Pete continues to cultivate and maximize the talent he's given. We're just not going to have the luxury of keeping very many guys that have played themselves into contracts.

The one thing I was really hoping for was that somebody was going to come along, tell me I'm wrong, and that we somehow will have a bunch of money to keep and add a lot of players. Drat.

 

[DavidSeven]

I just realized that I probably could have simplified this whole thread and said it another way.....how's this........

we're 30 million over the cap, wtf should we do now?

Not sure I understand your math. We're hovering right at the cap now. We potentially shave ~$25M off that number by cutting various "big" contracts. Don't over-commit yourself to Golden and Bennett (doesn't mean you can't resign), and I don't see a problem.

A player's extension doesn't have to hit your cap hard immediately. Russell isn't even eligible for an extension until 2015, which means his cap number won't really hit us hard until 2016. By then, Marshawn and Unger's contracts are over, and you have flexibility with Percy/Kam/Okung. Brand new stars will emerge and completely change the "invaluable vs. just valuable" equation.

 

[Scottemojo]

Anyone remember John Schneider saying in his very first presser that is exactly where we wanted to be? Everyone coveting our players and having to let some of them go? I do.

Anyone also remember our cap-ologist, John Izdik leaving for the Jets last offseason?

You don't think they hired another one?

 

[DavidSeven]

Anyone remember John Schneider saying in his very first presser that is exactly where we wanted to be? Everyone coveting our players and having to let some of them go? I do.

Anyone also remember our cap-ologist, John Izdik leaving for the Jets last offseason?

You don't think they hired another one?

Not to mention the fact that almost all of our main stars had already emerged prior to his exit. I doubt we burned all of his salary cap models (that already accounted for Wilson, Thomas, Sherman, etc.) before he walked out the door.