My top 10 plays from 2013-2014 Season

[kearly]

I honestly think "the tip" is over-rated. Colin Kaepernick is something like 1 for 23 in the red zone against Seattle for his career, he had less than 30 seconds left to work with and had already turned the ball over twice previously in that same quarter. It was a good play by Sherman but really that play was 10% Sherman making a play, and 90% Kaepernick being an idiot. The fact that Kaepernick continues to get killed by throwing fades to Sherman shows that he fails to learn from mistakes. Kaep's BS comment after the game- the untrue statement that the pass only needed to be a few inches higher and everything would have been okay- makes me hopeful that he will continue to make this mistake out of stubbornness in the future.

Sure, it sent us to the SB and it was a dramatic moment, but statistically we probably had something like a 95% chance of winning the game even before the tip was made. In addition to Kaepernick's terrible red zone numbers against Seattle, think about how many times you've seen an GOAT caliber defense lose a critical game to a TD in the final seconds at home. It's not a common occurrence. As far as game winning plays go it ranks well behind Edgar's double which happened when Seattle was down by 1 run in extras and the team had maybe a 50% win expectancy at best before he hit it.

"The Tip" is also a hilariously terrible name for that play, btw.

I think the biggest play was the 4th and 7 and I'm surprised anyone would have the tip rated higher than this miracle of a play. First off, 4th and 7 is not a high conversion rate, and scoring a nearly ~37 yard TD on 4th and 7th to take the lead for good is even rarer. That's the play that actually won us the NFCCG, and it was one of the more improbable plays of the entire season. I know if I was a 49ers fan the 4th and 7 would have been the play I'd have lamented the most after the game was over.

 

[Throwdown]

I ranked mine off emotions I felt afterward. Sherms deflection sent me into a frenzy, still get butterflies watching it.

 

[kearly]

I ranked mine off emotions I felt afterward. Sherms deflection sent me into a frenzy, still get butterflies watching it.

The biggest celebration I had in that game was actually Lynch's TD that tied the score 10-10. Before then I had real doubts Seattle could pull their heads out of their asses. After that TD though, I just knew we had it in the bag, even though it was only a tie game.

 

[volsunghawk]

Regarding 4th and 7, it helps a lot that there was essentially no pass rush on that play, since SF's D-linemen paused briefly when the offsides flag came out. It took them a moment to get going again, and by that point, the ball was already out.

 

[Throwdown]

To be honest I nearly put Percy's #1, cuz I called it when I saw Percy standing back there and that was the moment I realized "we're gonna be champs"

 

[Zebulon Dak]

The play that sealed the victory over our heated rivals, the 2nd best team in the league, coached by Jim Harbaugh, and sent us, the Seahawks, led by 2nd year phenom Russell Wilson, to just our second Super Bowl in franchise history, in which we proceeded to kick the living shit out of Peyton Manning and the Broncos, record setting offense and all, is over-rated?

Rokay Reorge. ;-)

 

[Captain]

I honestly think "the tip" is over-rated. Colin Kaepernick is something like 1 for 23 in the red zone against Seattle for his career, he had less than 30 seconds left to work with and had already turned the ball over twice previously in that same quarter. It was a good play by Sherman but really that play was 10% Sherman making a play, and 90% Kaepernick being an idiot. The fact that Kaepernick continues to get killed by throwing fades to Sherman shows that he fails to learn from mistakes. Kaep's BS comment after the game- the untrue statement that the pass only needed to be a few inches higher and everything would have been okay- makes me hopeful that he will continue to make this mistake out of stubbornness in the future.

Sure, it sent us to the SB and it was a dramatic momentbut statistically we probably had something like a 95% chance of winning the game even before the tip was made, . In addition to Kaepernick's terrible red zone numbers against Seattle, think about how many times you've seen an GOAT caliber defense lose a critical game to a TD in the final seconds at home. It's not a common occurrence. As far as game winning plays go it ranks well behind Edgar's double which happened when Seattle was down by 1 run in extras and the team had maybe a 50% win expectancy at best before he hit it.

"The Tip" is also a hilariously terrible name for that play, btw.

I think the biggest play was the 4th and 7 and I'm surprised anyone would have the tip rated higher than this miracle of a play. First off, 4th and 7 is not a high conversion rate, and scoring a nearly ~37 yard TD on 4th and 7th to take the lead for good is even rarer. That's the play that actually won us the NFCCG, and it was one of the more improbable plays of the entire season. I know if I was a 49ers fan the 4th and 7 would have been the play I'd have lamented the most after the game was over.

It was actually exactly a 50-50 chance of winning according to probability statistics.

 

[Anonymous]

I ranked mine off emotions I felt afterward. Sherms deflection sent me into a frenzy, still get butterflies watching it.

The biggest celebration I had in that game was actually Lynch's TD that tied the score 10-10. Before then I had real doubts Seattle could pull their heads out of their asses. After that TD though, I just knew we had it in the bag, even though it was only a tie game.

I concur. Things did look strangely dismal up to that TD, and you knew that if we could come back from a deficit that early in the game, things were going to be okay.

 

[XxXdragonXxX]

 

[MissoulaHawkFan]

Gotta disagree with Kearly on Sherms play. What made it so impressive was he was in great position to make the int, but then CrabTree subtly pulls him back and around from his right shoulder while he is up in the air. Sherm was able to make the split second adjustment and still make the play while getting his momentum thrown off unexpectedly. It was a way more difficult play than it appears. Basically like going up for a rebound in basketball, but getting shoved while in the air farther under the ball, and still making the rebound by adjusting and re-contorting your body in a split second in mid air. Also, what would a former o-lineman (am I right on that Kearly?) know about making athletic plays on the ball while it was in the air?

 

[RockHawk]

I honestly think "the tip" is over-rated. Colin Kaepernick is something like 1 for 23 in the red zone against Seattle for his career, he had less than 30 seconds left to work with and had already turned the ball over twice previously in that same quarter. It was a good play by Sherman but really that play was 10% Sherman making a play, and 90% Kaepernick being an idiot. The fact that Kaepernick continues to get killed by throwing fades to Sherman shows that he fails to learn from mistakes. Kaep's BS comment after the game- the untrue statement that the pass only needed to be a few inches higher and everything would have been okay- makes me hopeful that he will continue to make this mistake out of stubbornness in the future.

Sure, it sent us to the SB and it was a dramatic moment, but statistically we probably had something like a 95% chance of winning the game even before the tip was made. In addition to Kaepernick's terrible red zone numbers against Seattle, think about how many times you've seen an GOAT caliber defense lose a critical game to a TD in the final seconds at home. It's not a common occurrence. As far as game winning plays go it ranks well behind Edgar's double which happened when Seattle was down by 1 run in extras and the team had maybe a 50% win expectancy at best before he hit it.

"The Tip" is also a hilariously terrible name for that play, btw.

I think the biggest play was the 4th and 7 and I'm surprised anyone would have the tip rated higher than this miracle of a play. First off, 4th and 7 is not a high conversion rate, and scoring a nearly ~37 yard TD on 4th and 7th to take the lead for good is even rarer. That's the play that actually won us the NFCCG, and it was one of the more improbable plays of the entire season. I know if I was a 49ers fan the 4th and 7 would have been the play I'd have lamented the most after the game was over.

I love ya K, but this whole thing sounded like it came from Debbie Downer.

 

[ivotuk]

..........Then afterwards we can create a new thread a discuss football follies... that would be a good one...#1 is definately between Robert Turbin's self fumble vs ARI2?; the tangling of the Hydra with Sherman, Thomas, and Maxwelll getting mixed up, or Maxwell-Thomas bobble into Meacham 50 yard catch.

What about Maragos fumbling the FG attempt that turned into a TD for the Titans at the end of the first half?

#1 on that list would have to be Lynch flipping the bird to the coaching staff @AZ, right?

MUST add Earl Thomas chest bumping Kam and knocking Chancellor over

 

[Captain]

 

[formido]

I honestly think "the tip" is over-rated. Colin Kaepernick is something like 1 for 23 in the red zone against Seattle for his career, he had less than 30 seconds left to work with and had already turned the ball over twice previously in that same quarter. It was a good play by Sherman but really that play was 10% Sherman making a play, and 90% Kaepernick being an idiot. The fact that Kaepernick continues to get killed by throwing fades to Sherman shows that he fails to learn from mistakes. Kaep's BS comment after the game- the untrue statement that the pass only needed to be a few inches higher and everything would have been okay- makes me hopeful that he will continue to make this mistake out of stubbornness in the future.

Sure, it sent us to the SB and it was a dramatic moment, but statistically we probably had something like a 95% chance of winning the game even before the tip was made. In addition to Kaepernick's terrible red zone numbers against Seattle, think about how many times you've seen an GOAT caliber defense lose a critical game to a TD in the final seconds at home. It's not a common occurrence. As far as game winning plays go it ranks well behind Edgar's double which happened when Seattle was down by 1 run in extras and the team had maybe a 50% win expectancy at best before he hit it.

"The Tip" is also a hilariously terrible name for that play, btw.

I think the biggest play was the 4th and 7 and I'm surprised anyone would have the tip rated higher than this miracle of a play. First off, 4th and 7 is not a high conversion rate, and scoring a nearly ~37 yard TD on 4th and 7th to take the lead for good is even rarer. That's the play that actually won us the NFCCG, and it was one of the more improbable plays of the entire season. I know if I was a 49ers fan the 4th and 7 would have been the play I'd have lamented the most after the game was over.

Can't see it. Sherman is the only corner in the league who makes that play. (Revis probably would have broken up the pass, but he wouldn't have snagged it.) Crabtree pushed Sherman off and if it weren't for Sherman's length, it would have been a TD. Kap throwing a 1-on-1 fade in the end zone with no safety help in that situation is the right play 90% of the time. It's only a bad decision because it's Sherman, so it's strange to steal the credit from him for that reason.

Kap also probably had more information. There's a good chance he knew Crabtree was going to do whatever it took to get open and there's zero chance an OPI gets called there, especially given it's Seattle and Sherman. And, don't forget, it almost worked! Sherman had perfect position and ended up barely getting a hand on the ball. We can't assume it was destined to happen the way it did.

Moreover, the play's mystique is enhanced because of the type of play it was. In the NFL, we've seen lots of TD runs to seal a big game, lots of TD passes (even low probability hail marys), lots of field goals--we've even seen lots of big games end on stupid decisions leading to an interception. How often do we see a game end by a miraculous play on the ball to make an INT, especially after the DB was interfered with? And not only that, a purposeful tip to interception, the second by Sherman this season, so we know that it's deliberate[1], a matter of skill not just dumb luck.

Regarding Seattle having a 95% chance of winning without that INT, that's probably privileging the outcome a bit. GOAT caliber defenses usually win because they make a play like that. If you take away the Hall of Fame caliber players making Hall of Fame caliber plays, it's not a GOAT defense anymore.

One neutral analysis suggests that Sherman's play influenced the Super Bowl outcome more than any non-Super Bowl play in the Super Bowl era and was 8th most including Super Bowl plays.

"8. Richard Sherman tip-to-INT vs. Michael Crabtree (2013 NFC Championship Game, SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE)

Late 4th quarter, SEA leading 23-17

SBD Value: 28

This play is still fresh, but I have a hunch it may actually end up being underrated. It came at the end of a great game, it was dramatic, and I have it rated as the most-influential non-Super Bowl play ever. I have the change in WP for the game at 0.5, giving SF roughly a 0.5 chance of winning from 1st and 10 on the 18 with 0:30 left. I also gave SF a 0.55 chance of beating Denver. So the SBD value for the Sherman-to-Smith tip drill pick is 0.5*0.55 = 0.28."

[ http://www.footballperspective.com/one-play-away/ ]

You could say that those odds are off because they're averages from past results and Seattle had a special defense. But we're also talking about SF, who is chock-full of top-of-the-draft talent, has Jim Harbaugh, and was in its 3rd straight NFCCG. SF had beaten Seattle earlier in the year and had played Seattle even in this game. How many people watching that game would have claimed in that moment that Seattle had a 95% chance of winning? 50% felt right to me.

I can't even agree that The Tip is a bad name. It's short and pithy and if it lends itself to a couple clever double entendres, I won't object. The fact that it's not competing with other The Catches for mind share, because of its type rarity, is a major bonus.

PS - Wouldn't want to argue against 4th-and-7. That was an incredible, incredible play. Also miraculous. It's just that miraculous plays close to the ends of games change win probability more.

[1] Did any other DB in the league have even one deliberate tip to interception this season?

 

[sc85sis]

Besides the athleticism shown on that tip play, I was impressed because it was the 2nd time we'd seen it, and Richard had indicated they practice that. That's damn good coaching.

 

[drdiags]

Some others that I thought were key to the success of the season:

1 - Kearse's TD catch against the Panthers. Wasn't a lot going on to make me think the game was won until he and Wilson connected on this key play.
2 - Wagner's tackle on Kaep's 3rd down run up the gut in the redzone after the Wilson fumble.
3 - Fawell's tackle on the Rams RB (Zach Stacy?) on the third and goal play.
4 - Wilson to Rice to open up the Cardinals game on TNF.
5 - Zach Miller's long catch and run against the Saints on MNF.

The OP's list is pretty good and I cannot shoot holes in it, especially since he admitted the Sherm pick 6 against the Texans was a very huge play in helping to get out of Houston with a win.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

And how about ET forcing that fumble by Deangelo Williams late in the Carolina game when they were already in go ahead FG range? Big play.

 

[Throwdown]

No one has a video or gif of mcdaniel's sack vs Arizona where he bear clubbed the linemen, it was hilarious

 

[drdiags]

And how about ET forcing that fumble by Deangelo Williams late in the Carolina game when they were already in go ahead FG range? Big play.

That was the other one I was going to mention but I got distracted and lost my train of thought. My attention span is ... what was I talking about?

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

And how about ET forcing that fumble by Deangelo Williams late in the Carolina game when they were already in go ahead FG range? Big play.

That was the other one I was going to mention but I got distracted and lost my train of thought. My attention span is ... what was I talking about?

Huh? Am I involved in some sort of conversation? :mrgreen: