Nate Silver: The Seahawks, in a close one

[Our Man in Chicago]

For those of you who put stock in stats:

http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-super-bowl-prediction-football-gambling-2015-1

An additional article:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...best-this-could-be-the-worst-super-bowl-ever/

Elo ratings, explained:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/introducing-nfl-elo-ratings/

 

[Missing_Clink]

This is possibly the only prediction that matters to me

 

[Our Man in Chicago]

I put more stock in Barnwell's picks than Silver's, as football games often ride on statistically anomalous plays. The small sample size also plays into it.

But I've been a fan of Silver since we used to see each other in my neighborhood. The guy lived literally three blocks from me for years (on Wood Street in Wicker Park right by the Beachwood). I introduced myself to him years ago, and he seemed shocked that anyone knew who he was. This was not long after his blog had moved from burrito brackets to politics.

 

[bobdigital]

Interest article and i think it is correct in this will be one of the best SB match ups ever as far as even strength and overall ability.

A few thing about it are clearly wrong though. For example It says this years Seattle is about 100 ELO higher than last years. You would be hard pressed to find someone think this is the case.

This is a hard game to quantify with stats cause both teams have been world beaters at times as well as looked barely average for stretches.

 

[Chawks1]

Silver picked 49ers over Ravens couple years ago.....maybe he's the one that pulled the plug on the lights.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Silver picked 49ers over Ravens couple years ago.....maybe he's the one that pulled the plug on the lights.

One of the few times he has been wrong. He's usually spot on in elections or super bowls.

 

[kearly]

Most people picked the 49ers, they were clearly the better team going in and Baltimore didn't have the team speed to contain Kaepernick. I think if they played that SB 10 times, Baltimore wins 3 of them. They just happened to get one of those three.

 

[hawknation2015]

If you read the actual article, Silver's Elo ratings give the Seahawks a 2.5 point advantage. He seems to have reduced his prediction to one point by deducting the Patriots' loss to Buffalo.

. The Vegas line opened as a pick ’em, and most sports books have the Patriots as mere one-point favorites. Elo, which loves the Seahawks, differs slightly here: It has Seattle as 2.5-point favorites. But that’s partly because the system, in its simplicity, punished the Patriots for their meaningless Week 17 loss against Buffalo. Without that game, the Patriots’ Elo rating would be 1756, which would make Seattle only one-point favorites and which would vault this matchup ahead of Super Bowl XIII into the top slot of all time.

He doesn't mention that Vegas opened with the Seahawks as a 2.5-point favorite. Like Silver's decision to deduct the Patriots' loss to Buffalo, it has been subjective biases that have reduced the line.

 

[Erebus]

A few thing about it are clearly wrong though. For example It says this years Seattle is about 100 ELO higher than last years. You would be hard pressed to find someone think this is the case.

ELO ratings build off previous years. They aren't just based on one year.