Everyone,
Welp. So much for the division this year. With that settled, for the NFC the playoff picture is settled for this week (tomorrow's game is meaningless for the NFC). Surprisingly the MNF game against two eliminated NFC teams is important for the AFC playoff picture. Again since it applies directly to Seattle, I'll be discussing the NFC Playoff picture only in this thread. If you are interested in the AFC scenarios, click on my AFC Thread under NFL general or go HERE.
Before I dive in, this week pretty much decided almost all of the NFC playoff picture, with only a couple of aspects of seeding realistically up for debate. Unless something shocking happens, I can tell you which team and seed in the NFC will be making the playoffs right now: 1) Carolina 2) Arizona 3) Green Bay 4) NFC East (prob Washington) 5) Seattle 6) Minnesota Of those teams all but two have clinched [Minny and Washington haven't clinched but Minny has all but clinched]
Likewise as before, I will use the following special symbols: * means clinched Home Field, z means clinched first week bye, y means clinched division, x means clinched any playoff spot, and e means the team is eliminated. Again (and we see it for the first time), sometimes you'll see a number after a symbol. That reflects a specific seed clinched.
As before, I'll start with the NFC South. The carnage was massive in this division this week (and even Carolina barely made it while showing definite feet of clay). Other than Carolina only Atlanta remains alive and only by the narrowest and highly unlikely single scenario. Without further ado, the NFC South:
NFC South
Carolina (z) 14-0 (10-0 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Atlanta, Tampa
Atlanta 7-7 (4-6 conf) Remaining Schedule: Carolina, New Orleans
Tampa (e) 6-8 (5-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: Chicago, @Carolina
New Orleans (e) 5-8 (4-6 conf) Remaining Schedule: Detroit, Jax, @Atlanta
Clinching Scenarios: Carolina has already clinched a first week bye. The failed to clinch home field when Arizona won in week 15. That leads directly to the NFC South's only clinching scenario:
Carolina clinches home field with:
A Win or tie OR An Arizona loss or tie It really is that simple. Carolina controls it's destiny for home field with a magic number of one (actually one half). Carolina is almost guaranteed home field at this point since only Arizona could catch them and that's not likely.
Elimination Scenarios: Thanks to both Minny and Seattle winning, the wildcard floor was raised to 9 wins which eliminated Tampa and New Orleans outright. I thought last week it would have eliminated Atlanta as well since they lose all tiebreaks, but that isn't quite true. Atlanta is still barely alive. What I said last week was true, Atlanta DOES lose all tiebreaks to potential 9 win teams, but there is ONE three way tie that Atlanta wins because it goes down to SoV. The only way Atlanta can make the playoffs is if Seattle, Minnesota, and Atlanta all end the season 9-7 now that Seattle has beaten Cleveland completing it's non-conference schedule. That would require Atlanta to win out, Seattle to lose out, and for Minnesota to lose out. All....unlikely to say the least. In that one scenario, Atlanta would get the #5 seed by virtue of the fifth tiebreak (SoV) and Seattle would get the #6 seed by head to head (vs Minny). This is also the ONLY way that Minny fails to make the playoffs. Thus for elimination scenarios, we can say:
Atlanta is eliminated if any one of the following things happen:
1. Atlanta Loss (or tie)
2. Seattle Win (or tie)
3. Minny Win (or tie)
So who should the Seattle fan root for? Who cares? Honestly the only NFC South game of any possible passing interest to Seattle is Carolina at Atlanta and we should (marginally) root for Carolina if only to put Atlanta out of it's misery, but Seattle can do that all on her own (and should) when Seattle faces the Rams at Century Link. Likewise now that Arizona has clinched, Seattle has ZERO rooting interest in tomorrow's Monday night game.
With all that said, let's move on to perhaps the most "interesting" (in a Chinese sense) division in the NFC: The NFC East.
NFC East
Washington 7-7 (6-4 conf, 2-2 div): Remaining Schedule: @Philly, @Dallas
Philly 6-8 (3-7 conf, 2-2 div): Remaining Schedule: Washington, @NY Giants
NY Giants 6-8 (4-6 conf, 2-3 div): Remaining Schedule: @Minny, Philly
Dallas (e) 4-10 (3-8 conf, 3-2 div): Remaining Schedule: @Buff, Washington
The NFC East is still a mess and I hope everyone notices that I put divisional records in, because in this case it's important for everyone to see them. It's not quite as putrid as it was a couple weeks ago, and it looks like that the winner will probably have at least an 8-8 record (in fact I think that's exactly what the winning record will be when the smoke clears), but the picture is definitely clearer with a definite front-running team.
Clinching Scenarios: There actually is one this time, but interestingly there are still two teams that control their own destiny. If Philly wins out, they will still win the division, but that's because they'll have to beat both Washington and the NY Giants to do so. Even so it's clear that Philly can't clinch this coming week. Washington can. It's also worth noting that because the NY Giants lost today, the only playoff possibility for any NFC East team is the NFC East crown. That puts the Giants in dire danger of elimination. Had Philly won, the Giants would have been all but eliminated. Fortunately for the Giants, their path the playoffs is easier than it would have been but still darned unlikely. Without further ado, there is one clinching scenario for the NFC East in Week 16:
Washington clinches the NFC East with:
A win OR a tie + NY Giants loss (or tie) Why? If Washington wins, then Philly loses, and Washington would have the head to head tiebreak even if both wound up 8-8. If the NY Giants win out then Washington and the Giants would be tied at 8-8 but Washington would win the conference wins tiebreak 7-5 vs 6-6. If Washington ties, that still eliminates Philly by head to head even if both ended up with 7-8-1 records [Washington would have a head to head record vs Philly of 1-0-1]. If Washington ties and the Giants win out, Washington wins the division by a half game.
Elimination Scenarios: Dallas was eliminated when it lost to the Jets. The Giants are nearly eliminated and do not control their own destiny. The only way the Giants can make the playoffs is to win the East, and the only way that happens is to win out (inflicting a loss on Philly along the way) and for Washington to either lose out, or to tie vs Philly and lose vs Dallas. Thus:
The NY Giants are eliminated with:
A loss (or tie) OR A Washington win
So who should the Seattle fan root for? Who do you want Seattle to meet first in the playoffs? Honestly that's the only meaning for Seattle's playoff picture. There is nothing that can happen in the NFC East (by itself) that affects Seattle's playoff picture. If you want Seattle to get the #5 seed for certain, root for the Giants, but IMHO that's dangerous since IMHO the Giants are the one NFC East team we don't want in the playoffs (Eli Manning). [The reason for this is the Giants play Minny and if Minny loses, then Minny could get locked out of the NFC North picture and that would be key for Seattle clinching the #5 seed in week 16, but more later.]
We now move the the division that outside our own affects us the most: The NFC North
NFC North
Green Bay (x) 10-4 (7-3 conf): Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, Minny
Minnesota 9-5 (6-4 conf): Remaining Schedule: NY Giants, @Green Bay
Chicago (e) 5-9 (2-8 conf): Remaining Schedule: @Tampa, Detroit
Detroit (e) 4-9 (3-6 conf): Remaining Schedule: @New Orleans, San Fran, @Chicago
This was a brutal elimination week in the NFC North as well, and Minny failed to join Seattle in the playoff clinch club only by the most slender of margins. Had Jacksonville defeated Atlanta, then MInny would have clinched as well, but as we've already discussed under the NFC South, Atlanta still has one single extremely unlikely playoff scenario available by using Seattle as protection against Minny's head to head vs Atlanta earlier this season in a three way 9-7 tie. Had Seattle not clinched this week but won instead against the Rams that would have eliminated Atlanta. Weird. Regardless Chicago going into this weekend had one sole path to the playoffs, and that (to put it mildly) didn't happen. It's almost a sure thing that two teams will be coming from the NFC North in the playoffs. Only the seeding has yet to be determined.
Clinching Scenarios: Both Green Bay and Minnesota both control their own destiny for the NFC Title. Minnesota does because if Minnesota wins out, it will beat Green Bay on the division tiebreaker level (because Minny and Green Bay play each other). That said, Green Bay is clearly in the driver's seat and can clinch the division. Interestingly Minny can be both eliminated from the Division race and still clinch a playoff spot. Here's how this all shakes out:
Green Bay Clinches the NFC North with:
A Win + Minny Loss or Tie [or a Tie and a Minny Loss] Why? Simple enough. A win puts Green Bay at 11 wins, and a Minny loss or tie would insure that Minny could not get to 11 wins no matter what happens.
Green Bay clinches no worse than the #5 seed with:
A win OR Seattle loss or tie Why? If Green Bay doesn't win the division they will join Seattle as a wildcard. A win insures that Seattle can tie Green Bay at best, and Green Bay has the head to head. Same applies to a Seattle loss or tie. Obviously if Green Bay wins the division this is irrelevant.
Minnesota clinches a playoff spot with ANY one of the following:
1. Win or tie
2. Atlanta loss or tie
3. Seattle win or tie
Interestingly this makes Seattle Minny's natural playoff ally. If Seattle wins, then Atlanta can't involve Seattle in a three way tie, and Atlanta loses all two way tiebreaks. This eliminates Atlanta. Obviously the other two scenarios eliminate Atlanta by putting her out of reach.
Elimination Scenarios: Obviously Detroit and Chicago are now both eliminated. Minny can not be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Even so there are a couple of elimination scenarios:
Green Bay is eliminated from the first week bye with:
A loss or tie Again this is pretty simple and pretty easy to see. If Green Bay loses, then Arizona wins. This puts Arizona out of reach of Green Bay and the #2 seed along with it,
Minnesota is eliminated from NFC North contention with:
A loss or tie + Green Bay win [or a loss +Green Bay tie or win] See Green Bay clinching Scenario above.
And now finally to the division we know best, the NFC West:
NFC West
Arizona (y-3) 12-2 (9-1 conf) Remaining Games: Green Bay, Seattle
Seattle (x) 9-5 (6-4 conf) Remaining Games: St Louis, @Arizona
St Louis (e) 6-8 (5-5 conf) Remaining Games: @Seattle, @San Fran
San Fran (e) 4-10 (3-7) Remaining Games: @Detroit, St Louis
This is the easiest division to read in the NFC because frankly (almost) everything has been decided. When Arizona clinched the NFC West tonight, they not only did that but insured they could be no worse than the #3 seed as well (one look at the NFC East tells you why). Seattle could still hypothetically fall to the #6 seed but that is extremely unlikely unless Minny somehow takes the North (which I doubt). This means that Seattle is locked into the Wildcard and probably the top wildcard.
Clinching Scenarios: Honestly there isn't much left to clinch. That said there are two clinching scenarios for the NFC West:
Arizona can clinch a first week bye with:
A Win or tie Again see the NFC North Green Bay elimination scenario and it's clear why. Arizona has 12 wins and at best Green Bay could tie this (and in so doing would win the head to head tiebreak). If Arizona wins or ties instead, Arizona takes at least the #2 seed with ease.
Seattle can clinch the #5 seed with:
A win + Green Bay Win + Minny loss Why? If Seattle wins, we'll have 10 wins and if Minny loses Minny will still have only 9. The Seattle win also clinches a playoff spot for Minny....but insures that Minny can do no better than tie Seattle's record. Green Bay has to win to clinch the North locking Green Bay out of the wildcard picture.
Elimination Scenarios: There are no elimination scenarios in the NFC West.
Who to root for? Well obviously let's root for Seattle to avenge our first game of the season and give Fisher and his Rams a losing record for X-Mas. Isn't that generous? In addition to that, I think it's clear even with the division locked up, we probably want to root for Green Bay and against Minny. This would lock Seattle into the #5 spot prior to week 17 making the last game completely meaningless (at least for Seattle). If you are uncomfortable with the Giants in the playoffs (that would be me for one), then you also want to root for Washington since that will eliminate the Giants (and Philly) from the playoffs.
*Whew* I hope this helps.
Welp. So much for the division this year. With that settled, for the NFC the playoff picture is settled for this week (tomorrow's game is meaningless for the NFC). Surprisingly the MNF game against two eliminated NFC teams is important for the AFC playoff picture. Again since it applies directly to Seattle, I'll be discussing the NFC Playoff picture only in this thread. If you are interested in the AFC scenarios, click on my AFC Thread under NFL general or go HERE.
Before I dive in, this week pretty much decided almost all of the NFC playoff picture, with only a couple of aspects of seeding realistically up for debate. Unless something shocking happens, I can tell you which team and seed in the NFC will be making the playoffs right now: 1) Carolina 2) Arizona 3) Green Bay 4) NFC East (prob Washington) 5) Seattle 6) Minnesota Of those teams all but two have clinched [Minny and Washington haven't clinched but Minny has all but clinched]
Likewise as before, I will use the following special symbols: * means clinched Home Field, z means clinched first week bye, y means clinched division, x means clinched any playoff spot, and e means the team is eliminated. Again (and we see it for the first time), sometimes you'll see a number after a symbol. That reflects a specific seed clinched.
As before, I'll start with the NFC South. The carnage was massive in this division this week (and even Carolina barely made it while showing definite feet of clay). Other than Carolina only Atlanta remains alive and only by the narrowest and highly unlikely single scenario. Without further ado, the NFC South:
NFC South
Carolina (z) 14-0 (10-0 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Atlanta, Tampa
Atlanta 7-7 (4-6 conf) Remaining Schedule: Carolina, New Orleans
Tampa (e) 6-8 (5-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: Chicago, @Carolina
New Orleans (e) 5-8 (4-6 conf) Remaining Schedule: Detroit, Jax, @Atlanta
Clinching Scenarios: Carolina has already clinched a first week bye. The failed to clinch home field when Arizona won in week 15. That leads directly to the NFC South's only clinching scenario:
Carolina clinches home field with:
A Win or tie OR An Arizona loss or tie It really is that simple. Carolina controls it's destiny for home field with a magic number of one (actually one half). Carolina is almost guaranteed home field at this point since only Arizona could catch them and that's not likely.
Elimination Scenarios: Thanks to both Minny and Seattle winning, the wildcard floor was raised to 9 wins which eliminated Tampa and New Orleans outright. I thought last week it would have eliminated Atlanta as well since they lose all tiebreaks, but that isn't quite true. Atlanta is still barely alive. What I said last week was true, Atlanta DOES lose all tiebreaks to potential 9 win teams, but there is ONE three way tie that Atlanta wins because it goes down to SoV. The only way Atlanta can make the playoffs is if Seattle, Minnesota, and Atlanta all end the season 9-7 now that Seattle has beaten Cleveland completing it's non-conference schedule. That would require Atlanta to win out, Seattle to lose out, and for Minnesota to lose out. All....unlikely to say the least. In that one scenario, Atlanta would get the #5 seed by virtue of the fifth tiebreak (SoV) and Seattle would get the #6 seed by head to head (vs Minny). This is also the ONLY way that Minny fails to make the playoffs. Thus for elimination scenarios, we can say:
Atlanta is eliminated if any one of the following things happen:
1. Atlanta Loss (or tie)
2. Seattle Win (or tie)
3. Minny Win (or tie)
So who should the Seattle fan root for? Who cares? Honestly the only NFC South game of any possible passing interest to Seattle is Carolina at Atlanta and we should (marginally) root for Carolina if only to put Atlanta out of it's misery, but Seattle can do that all on her own (and should) when Seattle faces the Rams at Century Link. Likewise now that Arizona has clinched, Seattle has ZERO rooting interest in tomorrow's Monday night game.
With all that said, let's move on to perhaps the most "interesting" (in a Chinese sense) division in the NFC: The NFC East.
NFC East
Washington 7-7 (6-4 conf, 2-2 div): Remaining Schedule: @Philly, @Dallas
Philly 6-8 (3-7 conf, 2-2 div): Remaining Schedule: Washington, @NY Giants
NY Giants 6-8 (4-6 conf, 2-3 div): Remaining Schedule: @Minny, Philly
Dallas (e) 4-10 (3-8 conf, 3-2 div): Remaining Schedule: @Buff, Washington
The NFC East is still a mess and I hope everyone notices that I put divisional records in, because in this case it's important for everyone to see them. It's not quite as putrid as it was a couple weeks ago, and it looks like that the winner will probably have at least an 8-8 record (in fact I think that's exactly what the winning record will be when the smoke clears), but the picture is definitely clearer with a definite front-running team.
Clinching Scenarios: There actually is one this time, but interestingly there are still two teams that control their own destiny. If Philly wins out, they will still win the division, but that's because they'll have to beat both Washington and the NY Giants to do so. Even so it's clear that Philly can't clinch this coming week. Washington can. It's also worth noting that because the NY Giants lost today, the only playoff possibility for any NFC East team is the NFC East crown. That puts the Giants in dire danger of elimination. Had Philly won, the Giants would have been all but eliminated. Fortunately for the Giants, their path the playoffs is easier than it would have been but still darned unlikely. Without further ado, there is one clinching scenario for the NFC East in Week 16:
Washington clinches the NFC East with:
A win OR a tie + NY Giants loss (or tie) Why? If Washington wins, then Philly loses, and Washington would have the head to head tiebreak even if both wound up 8-8. If the NY Giants win out then Washington and the Giants would be tied at 8-8 but Washington would win the conference wins tiebreak 7-5 vs 6-6. If Washington ties, that still eliminates Philly by head to head even if both ended up with 7-8-1 records [Washington would have a head to head record vs Philly of 1-0-1]. If Washington ties and the Giants win out, Washington wins the division by a half game.
Elimination Scenarios: Dallas was eliminated when it lost to the Jets. The Giants are nearly eliminated and do not control their own destiny. The only way the Giants can make the playoffs is to win the East, and the only way that happens is to win out (inflicting a loss on Philly along the way) and for Washington to either lose out, or to tie vs Philly and lose vs Dallas. Thus:
The NY Giants are eliminated with:
A loss (or tie) OR A Washington win
So who should the Seattle fan root for? Who do you want Seattle to meet first in the playoffs? Honestly that's the only meaning for Seattle's playoff picture. There is nothing that can happen in the NFC East (by itself) that affects Seattle's playoff picture. If you want Seattle to get the #5 seed for certain, root for the Giants, but IMHO that's dangerous since IMHO the Giants are the one NFC East team we don't want in the playoffs (Eli Manning). [The reason for this is the Giants play Minny and if Minny loses, then Minny could get locked out of the NFC North picture and that would be key for Seattle clinching the #5 seed in week 16, but more later.]
We now move the the division that outside our own affects us the most: The NFC North
NFC North
Green Bay (x) 10-4 (7-3 conf): Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, Minny
Minnesota 9-5 (6-4 conf): Remaining Schedule: NY Giants, @Green Bay
Chicago (e) 5-9 (2-8 conf): Remaining Schedule: @Tampa, Detroit
Detroit (e) 4-9 (3-6 conf): Remaining Schedule: @New Orleans, San Fran, @Chicago
This was a brutal elimination week in the NFC North as well, and Minny failed to join Seattle in the playoff clinch club only by the most slender of margins. Had Jacksonville defeated Atlanta, then MInny would have clinched as well, but as we've already discussed under the NFC South, Atlanta still has one single extremely unlikely playoff scenario available by using Seattle as protection against Minny's head to head vs Atlanta earlier this season in a three way 9-7 tie. Had Seattle not clinched this week but won instead against the Rams that would have eliminated Atlanta. Weird. Regardless Chicago going into this weekend had one sole path to the playoffs, and that (to put it mildly) didn't happen. It's almost a sure thing that two teams will be coming from the NFC North in the playoffs. Only the seeding has yet to be determined.
Clinching Scenarios: Both Green Bay and Minnesota both control their own destiny for the NFC Title. Minnesota does because if Minnesota wins out, it will beat Green Bay on the division tiebreaker level (because Minny and Green Bay play each other). That said, Green Bay is clearly in the driver's seat and can clinch the division. Interestingly Minny can be both eliminated from the Division race and still clinch a playoff spot. Here's how this all shakes out:
Green Bay Clinches the NFC North with:
A Win + Minny Loss or Tie [or a Tie and a Minny Loss] Why? Simple enough. A win puts Green Bay at 11 wins, and a Minny loss or tie would insure that Minny could not get to 11 wins no matter what happens.
Green Bay clinches no worse than the #5 seed with:
A win OR Seattle loss or tie Why? If Green Bay doesn't win the division they will join Seattle as a wildcard. A win insures that Seattle can tie Green Bay at best, and Green Bay has the head to head. Same applies to a Seattle loss or tie. Obviously if Green Bay wins the division this is irrelevant.
Minnesota clinches a playoff spot with ANY one of the following:
1. Win or tie
2. Atlanta loss or tie
3. Seattle win or tie
Interestingly this makes Seattle Minny's natural playoff ally. If Seattle wins, then Atlanta can't involve Seattle in a three way tie, and Atlanta loses all two way tiebreaks. This eliminates Atlanta. Obviously the other two scenarios eliminate Atlanta by putting her out of reach.
Elimination Scenarios: Obviously Detroit and Chicago are now both eliminated. Minny can not be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Even so there are a couple of elimination scenarios:
Green Bay is eliminated from the first week bye with:
A loss or tie Again this is pretty simple and pretty easy to see. If Green Bay loses, then Arizona wins. This puts Arizona out of reach of Green Bay and the #2 seed along with it,
Minnesota is eliminated from NFC North contention with:
A loss or tie + Green Bay win [or a loss +Green Bay tie or win] See Green Bay clinching Scenario above.
And now finally to the division we know best, the NFC West:
NFC West
Arizona (y-3) 12-2 (9-1 conf) Remaining Games: Green Bay, Seattle
Seattle (x) 9-5 (6-4 conf) Remaining Games: St Louis, @Arizona
St Louis (e) 6-8 (5-5 conf) Remaining Games: @Seattle, @San Fran
San Fran (e) 4-10 (3-7) Remaining Games: @Detroit, St Louis
This is the easiest division to read in the NFC because frankly (almost) everything has been decided. When Arizona clinched the NFC West tonight, they not only did that but insured they could be no worse than the #3 seed as well (one look at the NFC East tells you why). Seattle could still hypothetically fall to the #6 seed but that is extremely unlikely unless Minny somehow takes the North (which I doubt). This means that Seattle is locked into the Wildcard and probably the top wildcard.
Clinching Scenarios: Honestly there isn't much left to clinch. That said there are two clinching scenarios for the NFC West:
Arizona can clinch a first week bye with:
A Win or tie Again see the NFC North Green Bay elimination scenario and it's clear why. Arizona has 12 wins and at best Green Bay could tie this (and in so doing would win the head to head tiebreak). If Arizona wins or ties instead, Arizona takes at least the #2 seed with ease.
Seattle can clinch the #5 seed with:
A win + Green Bay Win + Minny loss Why? If Seattle wins, we'll have 10 wins and if Minny loses Minny will still have only 9. The Seattle win also clinches a playoff spot for Minny....but insures that Minny can do no better than tie Seattle's record. Green Bay has to win to clinch the North locking Green Bay out of the wildcard picture.
Elimination Scenarios: There are no elimination scenarios in the NFC West.
Who to root for? Well obviously let's root for Seattle to avenge our first game of the season and give Fisher and his Rams a losing record for X-Mas. Isn't that generous? In addition to that, I think it's clear even with the division locked up, we probably want to root for Green Bay and against Minny. This would lock Seattle into the #5 spot prior to week 17 making the last game completely meaningless (at least for Seattle). If you are uncomfortable with the Giants in the playoffs (that would be me for one), then you also want to root for Washington since that will eliminate the Giants (and Philly) from the playoffs.
*Whew* I hope this helps.
