The 49ers I think are the biggest question mark in the division. I know it's fashionable to hate on them based on an 8-8 season last year, the loss of Harbaugh, the loss of some core key guys, and the fact that they are the SF 49ers (which in Seahawk land means at least 1 or 2 games less than a neutral party would pick). If you just look at the trends superficially, it looks like a worse team than last year, which means worse than 8-8.
But at the same time, there's always hopes for optimism in the Bay Area. Obsessive self study in Ninerland has wondered just how the hell the Niners managed to do so well the first three years of Harbaugh.
There is a small part of Niner fans that feels that Harbaugh was a very good coach, but benefitted from a few things that kept the 49ers relevant at a dominant level up until the breaking point:
IMO, this is what transpired (there will be a TLDR cliffs at the end!!!):
Harbaugh brought a different type of offense to the league, not only in it being run based but also tons of shifts and what not. He made Alex Smith more of a game manager than he already was. He had the lockout work to his advantage (thanks to Andrew Luck teaching it to Smith who then taught it to his teammates).
Just as important (maybe more important) he brought Vic Fangio who was a tight D coordinator who immediately elevated Bowman to starting status and finessed the already good defense to be better. He actually made that unit better each season schematically, but that first year of historic dominance (which would be a top 5 all time defense had the 49ers won the SB) he benefitted from Justin Smith and Ray McDonald playing at very high levels. The run defense was historic allowing 3 TDs all year, all coming in the final two weeks of the season.
Lastly, Harbaugh brought fresh energy, relatability ("players coach"), which when you put it all together with the 49ers catching everyone by surprise (and a third place schedule) brought 13-3, and THIS CLOSE to an SB.
Over time, teams adjusted to the 49er offense. The Niners would counterbalance a bit in 2012 with Smith becoming a bit more efficient, additions of Moss/Manningham, etc. Then of course they released Kaepernick who had all of the advantages a young QB could ever want (plus the read option/pistol fad courtesy of the Washington Redskins and RG3).
Close but no cigar in the SB.
2013 offseason, teams study the read option and pistol to death. 49ers make decision to not use Kap to that extent in regular season. Great debut game against Green Bay, then a struggle all season. Loss of Crabtree and other WRs hurt Kap's progress big time just as teams adjusted to him. However, once soldiers return, Kap does play better and 49ers offense does well enough to close out what looked like a lost season at 12-4. Of course, the Seahawks expose the 49ers offense the best of all teams and that home field advantage (plus shutting down the running game) made it very hard for SF to beat Seattle -- and still it could have happened.
2014 offseason - the turmoil with the distractions, Harbaugh leaks, etc. In hindsight it was a doomed season from the start due to chemistry problems, and the fact that year 4 of HaRoman offense finally was past the "sell by" date. 49ers start strong against Dallas and then experience all sorts of problems closing games out.
TLDR Cliffs:
2011 - Harbaugh had a lot of things going for him
2012 - Kap arrives at just the right time
2013 - Kap loses some key personnel just as teams adjust for him
2014 - Team chemistry and staleness of offense offsets the additions of some good offensive players
Oh yeah, PFF run blocking ranks for all 4 seasons:
2011 - #2
2012 - #1
2013 - #3
2014 - #8
What I see in 2015 in my unbiased opinion is this:
Tomsula = PUSH or maybe + for players' coach aspect. PUSH or maybe slight - for in game coaching/game planning
Offensive staff = Major PLUS at skill coaches, OC slight upgrade
Defensive staff = Slight decline at DC, position coaches push or maybe slight -
Offensive personnel = Post Gore era can work out really well if used right. Kap has a deep threat again (T. Smith)
Defensive personnel = DL will lose a bit without Justin, LBs are down a bit, DBs are about the same
Special Teams = Not sure
There WILL BE great positive energy on offense, no question about it.
It's funny.....Niner fans overrated Harbaugh when the team was dominant, and now naturally the opposition is overrating him. No reason why Tomsula can't replace that player's coach aspect which a lot of us Niner fans feel he was at his core and little by little got exposed. TOMSULA can easily be top 5 in the NFL in this category..........EASILY. Better than Adam Gase, Mike/Kyle Shannahan, Gary Kubiak, John Fox, etc.
Before I wrap up and give my NFC West predictions, I ask one question:
Who here (or NinerLand, or any NFL fan for that matter) predicted 13-3 for the 2011 49ers?
That's right....just like the question Harbaugh always asked...........NOBODYYYYYYYYYY!
So WTF can't a team that has already tasted high levels of success not bounce back to greatness?
NFC West:
49ers 11-5
Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 10-6 (loses in tiebreaker)
Rams 9-7
