"NOBODY BELIEVES IN US!!!!" - Bill Simmons picks the Saints

[SeaTown81]

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/102 ... l-playoffs

Saints (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS

Key Player: I remember Russell Wilson shredding New Orleans's defense in Week 13 when stud safety Kenny Vaccaro was still playing.12 I also remember him taking his undefeated home winning streak into Week 16 … and Arizona throttling him. Wilson's numbers: 108 passing yards, one TD, one pick, 4 sacks, 11-for-27, 10 points produced, 24 moments when Seattle fans mumbled to themselves, "Shit, are we sure this offense is good enough?" Bad day? Something more? Did Wilson lose his "invincible at home" mystique?

X Factor: Get ready for either "25 plays with Percy Harvin!" or "three plays with Percy Harvin followed by a shot of Percy walking off the field accompanied by two trainers!" Imagine if Seattle hadn't traded its first-rounder for Harvin, kept the pick and drafted Cordarrelle Patterson.

"Nobody Believes In Us" Edge: The Saints are riding the whole "Nobody thinks we can win a Super Bowl without playing in the Superdome" thing, but what about this email from Seattle fan Jebidiah?

I don't really think you understand the Seahawks. This is a team that truly plays with a chip on its shoulder, a team built with players who were drafted late or not at all. Look at that roster — it's loaded with players that nobody believed in. Sherman and Baldwin are both 5th round picks. Wilson had a punter picked ahead of him. Buffalo gave up on Lynch. They are hearing all of this noise about how #1 seeds aren't a lock any more. This team takes its bulletin-board material very seriously.

And its Adderall supply. Sorry, I had to.

Possible Tragic Figure: Rob Ryan. There's a version of this game in which I can totally see Ryan agonizing on the sideline and looking more confused than Michael Bay giving a three-hour Samsung presentation.

Generic Talking Head Point That You'll Definitely Hear: "Guys, everyone is talking about Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III … when are we gonna start talkin' about Russell Wilson???? NOBODY HAS HAD MORE SUCCESS THIS EARLY IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!"

Possible Omen That Can't Be Discounted: According to our friends at Field Gulls, Wilson's three biggest home games all featured a frightening weather subplot. Seattle won those three by a combined score of 105-23. The forecast for Saturday afternoon? A 100 percent chance of rain! That's a worst-case scenario for Saints fans. (Thinking.) You're right, this is actually the worst-case scenario.

Relevant Email (from Chris in Seattle): "Peyton Manning threw 46 passes of 25+ yards. Drew Brees threw 41. Russell Wilson threw 36. The Seahawks' WR's can make big plays ... this weekend vs. the Saints, you'll see it." If you say so.

Applicable Playoff Gambling Manifesto 5.0 Theories: "Beware Of The Nobody Believes In Us Team" … "Don't Take A Dome Team In Bad Weather" … "Beware Of The Blatantly Obvious 2-Team Teaser on the Same Day" … "Don't Pick The Underdog Unless You Genuinely Think It Has A Chance To Win."13 Edge to the Saints: 3-1.

This Game As a WWE Entrance Song: Randy Orton's "Voices." In other words, I know I shouldn't go against Seattle at home … but I hear voices in my head, they talk to me, they understand, they talk to me.

Why You Eventually Regretted Taking the Saints: Because the Saints barely got by a Philly team that gave up 48 points and 382 passing yards to Matt Cassel in Week 15, then 358 passing yards to Kyle Orton in Week 17. Because Seattle killed them last time, and you should have known better. Because Percy Harvin will make one big play. Because we're destined for Seattle vs. San Francisco III: The Thrilla in Qwestilla. Because nobody throws on the Seahawks — they finished with one of the best pass defenses of the decade.14 Because you never want to go against the 12th Man AND crappy weather. Because you forgot how frightening Russell Wilson is, how he'll turn four sacks into first downs every game. Because Brees missed a few throws (and short-armed a couple others) in cold weather in Philly last weekend, so why wouldn't it happen again?

Why You Eventually Regretted Taking the Seahawks: You forgot that everyone on the planet is teasing the Hawks and Pats on Saturday. You forgot that we've had a second-round upset every year since 2005. You totally discounted the "Nobody Believes In Us" factor. You forgot that it's really hard to defeat a good team twice in six weeks. You forgot that New Orleans is still in Eff You Mode from Bountygate. You forgot that these aren't the stereotypical Saints — they can play defense, run the ball and shorten games now, which is exactly how you win in Seattle (particularly in the driving rain). You didn't pay enough attention when Arizona ripped through the 12th Man, ran the ball down Seattle's throats, slowed the game down and ground out a Week 16 win even though Carson Palmer got picked four times. You thought Arizona caught Seattle napping that day. You didn't take any larger meaning from that game. You made a mistake.

The Pick: New Orleans 20, Seattle 16

Just the way I like it. :th2thumbs:

 

[2_0_6]

I think its comical how "experts" keep comparing the Arizona defense to a beat up, backup filled Saints defense.

 

[ivotuk]

And how after one game against Philly, they now have a run game that can threaten Seattle.

 

[SeaTown81]

I think its comical how "experts" keep comparing the Arizona defense to a beat up, backup filled Saints defense.

Yeah. I don't want to discredit the Saints defense. But the national media member who keep harping on the AZ game as the reason why Seattle isn't that great, Simmons the leader of that pack, REALLY REALLY under-credit the Cardinals defense and front 7 especially. Why do they think the Cards were so hot at the end of the season and almost made the playoffs? Simmons himself mocks the fact that they won the game with Carson Palmer throwing 4 picks. That team nearly made the playoffs and finished with a better record (in the toughest division in football, mind you) than a handful of playoffs teams. And they didn't do it mainly because of their offense. No, it was their #2 ranked DVOA defense! Hilarious to me how little credit they got this year.

 

[Seeker]

I also love the "they got they're butts handed to them in seattle just a few weaks ago, and everybody knows that makes you a shoe in to win the next game". how does that logic work exactly? it's not as if the seahawks fail mary'd the saints. the seahawks DESTROYED the saints in what was a clear (niners/packers) mismatch for New Orleans.

 

[tom sawyer]

They won their first outdoor road playoff game.. now they INVINCIBLE .. duh?!!

 

[2_0_6]

The thing that stood out to me most is Kyle Orton throwing for 358 yards against Philly. That defense really is BAD!

 

[AROS]

Simmons' article is just another meaningless drone of white noise in an ocean of meaningless white noise that will all be drowned out by tomorrow afternoon.

 

[HawkWow]

I feel bad for Simmons. It was he that apparently drew the "you go with the Saints" short straw.

 

[Seeker]

To be fair, simmons made it clear he has been horrible at picking games this year and has gotten razzed repeatedly for moving on to NBA stuff in his head.

he gave himself the nickname billy ice for a reason this year. this is almost a blessing in disguise.

 

[SouthSoundHawk]

Let's just take a look at who the Saints have playing linebacker...

...

...

...

...it seems we've run into a problem...

 

[plyka]

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10273137/page/2/bill-simmons-nfl-playoffs

Saints (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS

Key Player: I remember Russell Wilson shredding New Orleans's defense in Week 13 when stud safety Kenny Vaccaro was still playing.12 I also remember him taking his undefeated home winning streak into Week 16 … and Arizona throttling him. Wilson's numbers: 108 passing yards, one TD, one pick, 4 sacks, 11-for-27, 10 points produced, 24 moments when Seattle fans mumbled to themselves, "Shit, are we sure this offense is good enough?" Bad day? Something more? Did Wilson lose his "invincible at home" mystique?

X Factor: Get ready for either "25 plays with Percy Harvin!" or "three plays with Percy Harvin followed by a shot of Percy walking off the field accompanied by two trainers!" Imagine if Seattle hadn't traded its first-rounder for Harvin, kept the pick and drafted Cordarrelle Patterson.

"Nobody Believes In Us" Edge: The Saints are riding the whole "Nobody thinks we can win a Super Bowl without playing in the Superdome" thing, but what about this email from Seattle fan Jebidiah?

I don't really think you understand the Seahawks. This is a team that truly plays with a chip on its shoulder, a team built with players who were drafted late or not at all. Look at that roster — it's loaded with players that nobody believed in. Sherman and Baldwin are both 5th round picks. Wilson had a punter picked ahead of him. Buffalo gave up on Lynch. They are hearing all of this noise about how #1 seeds aren't a lock any more. This team takes its bulletin-board material very seriously.

And its Adderall supply. Sorry, I had to.

Possible Tragic Figure: Rob Ryan. There's a version of this game in which I can totally see Ryan agonizing on the sideline and looking more confused than Michael Bay giving a three-hour Samsung presentation.

Generic Talking Head Point That You'll Definitely Hear: "Guys, everyone is talking about Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III … when are we gonna start talkin' about Russell Wilson???? NOBODY HAS HAD MORE SUCCESS THIS EARLY IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!"

Possible Omen That Can't Be Discounted: According to our friends at Field Gulls, Wilson's three biggest home games all featured a frightening weather subplot. Seattle won those three by a combined score of 105-23. The forecast for Saturday afternoon? A 100 percent chance of rain! That's a worst-case scenario for Saints fans. (Thinking.) You're right, this is actually the worst-case scenario.

Relevant Email (from Chris in Seattle): "Peyton Manning threw 46 passes of 25+ yards. Drew Brees threw 41. Russell Wilson threw 36. The Seahawks' WR's can make big plays ... this weekend vs. the Saints, you'll see it." If you say so.

Applicable Playoff Gambling Manifesto 5.0 Theories: "Beware Of The Nobody Believes In Us Team" … "Don't Take A Dome Team In Bad Weather" … "Beware Of The Blatantly Obvious 2-Team Teaser on the Same Day" … "Don't Pick The Underdog Unless You Genuinely Think It Has A Chance To Win."13 Edge to the Saints: 3-1.

This Game As a WWE Entrance Song: Randy Orton's "Voices." In other words, I know I shouldn't go against Seattle at home … but I hear voices in my head, they talk to me, they understand, they talk to me.

Why You Eventually Regretted Taking the Saints: Because the Saints barely got by a Philly team that gave up 48 points and 382 passing yards to Matt Cassel in Week 15, then 358 passing yards to Kyle Orton in Week 17. Because Seattle killed them last time, and you should have known better. Because Percy Harvin will make one big play. Because we're destined for Seattle vs. San Francisco III: The Thrilla in Qwestilla. Because nobody throws on the Seahawks — they finished with one of the best pass defenses of the decade.14 Because you never want to go against the 12th Man AND crappy weather. Because you forgot how frightening Russell Wilson is, how he'll turn four sacks into first downs every game. Because Brees missed a few throws (and short-armed a couple others) in cold weather in Philly last weekend, so why wouldn't it happen again?

Why You Eventually Regretted Taking the Seahawks: You forgot that everyone on the planet is teasing the Hawks and Pats on Saturday. You forgot that we've had a second-round upset every year since 2005. You totally discounted the "Nobody Believes In Us" factor. You forgot that it's really hard to defeat a good team twice in six weeks. You forgot that New Orleans is still in Eff You Mode from Bountygate. You forgot that these aren't the stereotypical Saints — they can play defense, run the ball and shorten games now, which is exactly how you win in Seattle (particularly in the driving rain). You didn't pay enough attention when Arizona ripped through the 12th Man, ran the ball down Seattle's throats, slowed the game down and ground out a Week 16 win even though Carson Palmer got picked four times. You thought Arizona caught Seattle napping that day. You didn't take any larger meaning from that game. You made a mistake.

The Pick: New Orleans 20, Seattle 16

Just the way I like it. :th2thumbs:

This guy has a horrible writing style. Just don't like it. It's almost as if he is writing on the back of a notepad. This is supposed to be an article? This rambling, nonsensicle and barely legible pile of manure? "Journalism" has fallen from a not too high platue in the first place.

 

[SoHo9erFan]

Simmons was like 105-140 in picks this season.. granted, he basis his picks on the spread rather than outright winners, which is obviously more difficult, but still, he is wrong most of the time. So, if I'm a Hawks fan, I am happy about this

 

[DavidSeven]

This rambling, nonsensicle and barely legible pile of manure?

Sprinkle in a bunch of half-assed pop culture references and welcome to every Bill Simmons article that has ever been written.

 

[mikeak]

I prefer this Grantland article

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/102 ... l-playoffs

 

[ivotuk]

This is interesting only in the sense that it's an article that he can point back to if there is an upset. See them all the time, "go against the grain" articles. They usually disappear in the ether unless they prove to be correct then they can point back to it and say "When everyone else was going X, I was the only one that went Y! That makes me have some super secret method! And it's called "Shot in the Dark."

 

[Crizilla]

16 points? mwahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

[Seeker]

8 points is a pretty big spread but this is seattle....

 

[Blitzer88]

Usually I am a fan of Simmons, not so much on his one, although I do see what he is getting at.

 

[razgriz737]

I actually really like Bill Simmons...