Overall best QBs by team

[oldhawkfan]

We are just over a week away from the 2023 NFL draft. Like most of you, I've looked at mock drafts, fantasized about potential picks and gone back and forth on who I think the Seahawks should take. This is going to be a fun draft. Going into this draft they hold the #5 and #20 picks in the first round. As we have seen from this management team, they could do just about anything with these picks. They could keep them to pick guys they like or they could trade one or both and move up or down. As I have looked at this particular draft, I have seen and heard many of the arguments for drafting a QB based on this years draft position. I've been fairly lukewarm to that thought. Mostly. Being the Seahawks fan I am, my opinion on this might be more biased than I thought. The best QB this team has ever had was Russell Wilson and he was drafted in the 3rd round. Another famous 3rd round QB is Joe Montana. Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Matt Hasselbeck was originally a 6th rounder and they traded with GB for him. So at first thought, a QB can be had pretty much anywhere. No need to spend a high first or even a first for one.

I did a little research to see how other teams have done. I googled best QBs for each team. The list I found was pretty informative. It had the Sid Luckmans and Sammy Baughs. I have been following the draft and NFL for over 50 years. I tweaked their list a bit to just include the QBs that I have actually seen play. So here is my list. I have them listed by team, round drafted and overall draft position.

Cardinals-Jim Hart- undrafted
Falcons-Matt Ryan-1, 3
Baltimore-Lamar Jackson-1, 32
Buffalo-Jim Kelley-1, 14
Carolina-Cam Newton-1, 1
Cincinnati-Ken Anderson-3, 67 (Burrow will most likely supplant Anderson eventually)
Chicago-Jim McMahon-1, 5
Browns-Bernie Kosar(?)-supplemental draft
Dallas-Troy Aikman-1,1
Denver -John Elway-1,1
Detroit-Matt Stafford-1, 1
GB-Brett Favre-2, 33
Houston-Deshaun Watson-1,12
Colts-Peyton Manning-1,1
Chiefs Pat Mahomes-1, 10
Chargers-Dan Fouts-3, 64
Rams-Kurt Warner-undrafted
Jaguars-Mark Brunell-5, 118
Miami-Dan Marino-1, 27
Vikings-Fran Tarkenton-3, 29
NE-Tom Brady-6, 199
NYG-Eli Manning-1, 1
Jets-Joe Namath-1, 12
Raiders-Ken Stabler-2, 52
Eagles-Donovan McNabb-1, 2
SF-Joe Montana-3, 82
Seattle-Russell Wilson-3, 75
Steelers-Terry Bradshaw-1, 1
TB-Doug Williams-1, 17
Titans/Oilers-Warren Moon-undrafted
Washington-Joe Theisman-4, 99

That is 17 first rounders of which 6 were the overall number one pick. That is just over half of all NFL teams with first round QBs as their best ever at the position. This also includes 3 undrafted guys. It actually surprised me how many of these guys were actually first round picks. The list of first round busts is way longer than this list, but I guess your best chances of finding a franchise guy really do happen in round one. The next best round is round 3 with 5 teams finding their overall best guy here. There are only 3 second rounders.

Take this information how you will. For me, I might just put a little more importance on first round QBs. If you select the correct one. Whoever that is?!

 

[Rat]

The history of mid-round QBs is scary bad if your goal is to find a franchise guy. Russ was the last franchise QB selected in the third round, and that was 11 years ago. Since 2000, it's just him and Matt Schaub. The fifth round, you have to go back to the 1940s. There are exemptions, but the odds are stacked way against you.

 

[Mick063]

The history of first round picks is "scary bad" if your goal is to find a franchise guy.

First round QB busts by team:

Bears: Cade McNown
Bengals: Jack Thompson, Wayne Peace, David Klingler, Akili Smith
Bills: JP Losman, EJ Manuel
Broncos: Tim Tebow
Browns: Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Johhny Manziel
Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, Jameis Winston
Cardinals: Tim Rosenbach, Matt Leinart
Commanders: Heath Shuler, Patrick Ramsey
Chargers: Marty Domres, Ryan Leaf
Chiefs: Todd Blackledge
Colts: Art Schlicter
Cowboys: Chris Walsh
Eagles: John Reaves
Falcons: Chris Miller, Jeff George
Forty Niners: Jim Druckenmiller
Giants: Dave Brown
Jaguars: Blake Bortels
Jets: Ken Hobart
Lions: Chuck Long, Andre Ware, Joey Harrington
Packers: Jerry Tagge, Rich Campbell
Raiders: Todd Marinovich, JaMarcus Russell
Saints: Dave Wilson
Seahawks: Rick Mirer, Kelley Stouffer, Dan McGuire
Texans: David Carr
Titans: Vince Young, Marcus Mariota

Notable Undrafted Quarterbacks by team:

Cardinals: Jim Hart
Cowboys: Tony Romo
Forty Niners: Jeff Garcia
Lions: Erik Kramer, Gary Danielson
Oilers: Warren Moon
Panthers: Jake DelHomme
Rams: Kurt Warner
Saints: Bobby Hebert
Seahawks: Jim Zorn, Dave Krieg


The GOAT: Sixth Round.
Seattle's current #5 overall pick: Purchased for a QB taken in the third round (To include a second-round pick, a starting tight end, a backup QB, etc.)

On another note: After they take a defensive player with #5, I hope they make a move for Bijan Robinson. Putting Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant on the field at the same time. It has the big chunk play potential of approximating Aiyuk, Samuel, McCaffrey, and Kittle. Maybe not as renown, but still a very, very explosive offensive potential. Robinson could play the McAffrey role. That is the type of offense that the Brock Purdys of the world can thrive in. Geno just has to play point guard and put it in the hands of the playmakers. I still want the bruising, Chris Carson clone in the middle rounds as well.

 

[Rat]

The history of first round picks is "scary bad" if your goal is to find a franchise guy.

It's much, much better for first round picks, but yeah, QBs are a gamble anywhere. Listing a few late round QBs, which make up a tiny percentage of those drafted in that range doesnt mean much.

You mentioned Tom Brady. Now list the 6th round picks who didnt work out. Itll be a slightly larger list. Heck, I'll get you started by listing the ones since 2000:
Jake Luton
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley
Luke Falk
Tanner Lee
Brad Kayaa
Nate Sudfeld
Jake Rudock
Brandon Allen
Jeff Driskel
Zach Mettenberger
David Fales
Keith Wenning
Tajh Boyd
Garrett Gilbert
Ryan Lindley
Rusty Smith
Dan LeFevour
Joe Webb
Tony Pike
Tom Brandstater
Mike Teel
Keith Null
Curtis Painter
Colt Brennan
Andre Woodson
Jordan Palmer
Reggie McNeal
Bruce Gradkowski
Derek Anderson
Andy Hall
Josh Harris
Jim Sorgi
Jeff Smoker
Drew Henson
Brooks Bollinger
Kliff Kingsbury
JT O’Sullivan
Steve Bellisari
Josh Booty
Josh Heupel
Spergeon Wynn
Tom Husak
JaJuan Seider

So, all that compared to just Brady and Marc Bulger, both which were over 20 years ago.

I'm not saying they're never found later, just that it's unwise statistically to plan on getting one later.

 

[Lagartixa]

The history of mid-round QBs is scary bad if your goal is to find a franchise guy. Russ was the last franchise QB selected in the third round, and that was 11 years ago. Since 2000, it's just him and Matt Schaub. The fifth round, you have to go back to the 1940s. There are exemptions, but the odds are stacked way against you.

I agree with the points you make in this thread, but I've got a nitpick here.

Kirk Cousins was drafted in the fourth round of the same draft in which Wilson was selected, and Cousins deserves mention a hell of a lot more than Schaub.

 

[Rat]

I agree with the points you make in this thread, but I've got a nitpick here.

Kirk Cousins was drafted in the fourth round of the same draft in which Wilson was selected, and Cousins deserves mention a hell of a lot more than Schaub.

This is it for 4th rounders since 2000. I included Cousins in that.

Round Four

Successes
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Kyle Orton
David Garrard

Failures
Jacob Eason
James Morgan
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Kyle Lauletta
Joshua Dobbs
Conner Cook
Cardale Jones
Bryce Petty
Logan Thomas
Tom Savage
Matt Barkley
Ryan Nassib
Tyler Wilson
Landry Jones
Mike Kafka
Stephen McGee
Isaiah Stanback
Stefan Lefors
Luke McCown
Seneca Wallace
Rohan Davey
Chris Weinke
Sage Rosenfels
Jesse Palmer

Success Rate: 4 of 29 (13.8%)

And some would say it's generous to call Orton and Garrard franchise QBs.

 

[Mick063]

So in summary, the QB game is like playing the roulette wheel. No matter what round you choose. A pretty good argument to not spend a top five pick on a quarterback unless you are damn sure that he is damn good. Richardson, the 54% thrower, is not that good. Not for a once per decade pick.

When you get people to the point where they are listing fourth round QB busts, you are winning the argument. To not draft a project QB. Or to not be desperate for a QB when there is no desperation required.

 

[Rat]

I'm not saying we should draft a QB just to take one. The thing I disagree with is the belief I see sometimes that you can just wait on one because Jamarcus Russell was bad and Tom Brady was good. With something as difficult as the draft and the QB position being so vital, it's smart to play the odds.

 

[Jac]

So in summary, the QB game is like playing the roulette wheel. No matter what round you choose. A pretty good argument to not spend a top five pick on a quarterback unless you are damn sure that he is damn good. Richardson, the 54% thrower, is not that good. Not for a once per decade pick.

When you get people to the point where they are listing fourth round QB busts, you are winning the argument. To not draft a project QB. Or to not be desperate for a QB when there is no desperation required.

At the same time, what "can't miss" player would they be passing on in the top-5? IMO, this is the year to gamble on a QB given they still have the #20 and two second-rounders.

 

[Recon_Hawk]

So in summary, the QB game is like playing the roulette wheel. No matter what round you choose.

No, not even close. It's statistically proven the earlier you draft a player the better the odds that player will be more successful. That goes for any position.

In addition to that, you start getting into payout value on draft picks when looking at certain positions. Quarterbacks offer the most return of value so they tend to go earlier than all other positions and that goes for all 7 rounds.

 

[had2bhawk]

No, not even close. It's statistically proven the earlier you draft a player the better the odds that player will be more successful. That goes for any position.

In addition to that, you start getting into payout value on draft picks when looking at certain positions. Quarterbacks offer the most return of value so they tend to go earlier than all other positions and that goes for all 7 rounds.

Exception, 2nd overall pick 1993 Rick Mirer, who also wore # 3!

 

[Mick063]

. That goes for any position.

Make the case for choosing a project QB over any other position. If picking ANY position early increases the odds of getting a better player, than pick the position that can help the team the most. Pick the player that presents a representative sample on the field and not some guy that your coaching ego believes can be groomed to make the leap that has never been actually demonstrated. That includes looking at your roster and seeing where you are strong and where you are weak. The consensus is that a returning Pro Bowl player is not the weak part of your roster.

There is not more "value" in a bust quarterback. There is only the bust. The Browns don't think Manziel was good value. The Cardinals don't think Rosen was good value. The Seahawks would ultimately believe that Richardson is not good value either. Bust quarterbacks are not good value.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

No, not even close. It's statistically proven the earlier you draft a player the better the odds that player will be more successful. That goes for any position.

In addition to that, you start getting into payout value on draft picks when looking at certain positions. Quarterbacks offer the most return of value so they tend to go earlier than all other positions and that goes for all 7 rounds.

It's not this black and white.

Look at last years draft. Worst QB class in a very long time, and I bet those teams who overvalued those QB's regret taking most of them.

It's about properly vetting and scouting the QB's, like any position group.

So just taking a QB cause you can, or you have the draft position to do so isn't the point. The value and trust that you've done your homework and have confidence that the QB (or any player) isn't going to be a bust is what matters. Regardless of round. Just because other teams and the media is overhyping a player doesn't mean you cave into pressure to draft him.

Because that value is over inflated, and THAT'S where teams get into trouble. As evident with these bust lists.

 

[Recon_Hawk]

Make the case for choosing a project QB over any other position. If picking ANY position early increases the odds of getting a better player, than pick the position that can help the team the most. Pick the player that presents a representative sample on the field and not some guy that your coaching ego believes can be groomed to make the leap that has never been actually demonstrated. That includes looking at your roster and seeing where you are strong and where you are weak. The consensus is that a returning Pro Bowl player is not the weak part of your roster.

There is not more "value" in a bust quarterback. There is only the bust. The Browns don't think Manziel was good value. The Cardinals don't think Rosen was good value. The Seahawks would ultimately believe that Richardson is not good value either. Bust quarterbacks are not good value.

Project QBs become Pro Bowl QBs that cost fractions of a veteran QB, which greatly opens up your Super Bowl window by allowing you to fill multiple holes on the roster with proven talent.

Of course there's more risk on a QB, because the payout is higher they are pushed up the boards. If you don't want to play then you can gamble low, but the chances of you hitting on a mid to late round QB is way lower the further down in the draft you go.

I don't even view AR as big of a project as you do, and we we can discuss that, but not the idea that it doesn't matter where you draft a QB because that's proven false.

 

[Torc]

I think the problem isn't so much that it's hard to make a good guess on a QB (although it certainly is), but that teams either lack patience or just plain suck at developing QBs. Look at that list in the OP. As near as I can tell, here is who was drafted (or not drafted in a couple of cases), and sat on the bench to start their career:

Mahomes
Brunell
Brady
Jim Hart
Lamar Jackson
Ken Anderson
Kosar
Brett Favre
Aaron Rodgers - not on the list, but let's throw Favre's successor in too, since it's arguable which is better.
Dan Fouts
Kurt Warner
fran tarkenton
Eli Manning
Ken Stabler
Donovan McNabb
Joe Montana
Steve Young - same logic as favre/rodgers. Might as well put both hall of famers on this list
Terry Bradshaw
Joe Theismann


So of the 32 "best QBs", 17 of them sat and watched to start their career, plus a couple of other hall of fame calibre QBs who could easily be the best QB their team has had.

It seems to me that actually DEVELOPING your QB is the more reliable way to go instead of playing a crap shoot and hoping that high first rounder is your franchise savior right off the bat.

 

[WarHawks]

It seems to me that actually DEVELOPING your QB is the more reliable way to go instead of playing a crap shoot and hoping that high first rounder is your franchise savior right off the bat.

A bit of both actually.

 

[Recon_Hawk]

It's not this black and white.

Look at last years draft. Worst QB class in a very long time, and I bet those teams who overvalued those QB's regret taking most of them.

It's about properly vetting and scouting the QB's, like any position group.

So just taking a QB cause you can, or you have the draft position to do so isn't the point. The value and trust that you've done your homework and have confidence that the QB (or any player) isn't going to be a bust is what matters. Regardless of round. Just because other teams and the media is overhyping a player doesn't mean you cave into pressure to draft him.

Because that value is over inflated, and THAT'S where teams get into trouble. As evident with these bust lists.

I'm not suggesting that by drafting a player earlier it automatically improves their chances of being successful. I'm saying teams have shown they are as good (or bad) drafting QBs as they are with any other positions. Proven by hit rates declining as you go deeper into the draft, no matter the position.

You might not agree because QBs do bust at a higher rate than other positions, but that's because the payout is so much larger. It's not necessarily because they were overvalued. Evaluating talent is still important. Teams are just more willing to take a risk to find a pro bowl QB with 5 years of a cheap contract. In many cases, like 2022, The gamble just didn't work, but were still properly valued. The gamble draft pick just made more sense in the 3rd round (with Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder). In some years, like 2023, the gamble makes more sense in the early first round (like AR).

 

[Sgt. Largent]

In some years, like 2023, the gamble makes more sense in the early first round (like AR).

Again, you're assuming AR > Malik Willis............or any of the other potential or historical busts taken high.

WAY too many fans and media members projecting Richardson as an amazing NFL QB prospect, with very little football stats or tape to back it up, other than his crazy measurables and athletic ability.

We become enamored with highlight reels and combines, and have no idea how that translates to what GM's, coaches and scouts see beyond this stuff.

And to draw a line between "we've got the #5 pick and should use it on Richardson (or any other QB), because 1st round QB'S have a higher percentage of success" doesn't work for me.

Dude was projected as a 2nd round QB, and the 4th or 5th best QB in the entire draft in December. Now a lot of you guys think he's worthy of #5?

That's a reach for me.

 

[JustTheTip]

The history of first round picks is "scary bad" if your goal is to find a franchise guy.

First round QB busts by team:

Bears: Cade McNown
Bengals: Jack Thompson, Wayne Peace, David Klingler, Akili Smith
Bills: JP Losman, EJ Manuel
Broncos: Tim Tebow
Browns: Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Johhny Manziel
Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, Jameis Winston
Cardinals: Tim Rosenbach, Matt Leinart
Commanders: Heath Shuler, Patrick Ramsey
Chargers: Marty Domres, Ryan Leaf
Chiefs: Todd Blackledge
Colts: Art Schlicter
Cowboys: Chris Walsh
Eagles: John Reaves
Falcons: Chris Miller, Jeff George
Forty Niners: Jim Druckenmiller
Giants: Dave Brown
Jaguars: Blake Bortels
Jets: Ken Hobart
Lions: Chuck Long, Andre Ware, Joey Harrington
Packers: Jerry Tagge, Rich Campbell
Raiders: Todd Marinovich, JaMarcus Russell
Saints: Dave Wilson
Seahawks: Rick Mirer, Kelley Stouffer, Dan McGuire
Texans: David Carr
Titans: Vince Young, Marcus Mariota

Notable Undrafted Quarterbacks by team:

Cardinals: Jim Hart
Cowboys: Tony Romo
Forty Niners: Jeff Garcia
Lions: Erik Kramer, Gary Danielson
Oilers: Warren Moon
Panthers: Jake DelHomme
Rams: Kurt Warner
Saints: Bobby Hebert
Seahawks: Jim Zorn, Dave Krieg


The GOAT: Sixth Round.
Seattle's current #5 overall pick: Purchased for a QB taken in the third round (To include a second-round pick, a starting tight end, a backup QB, etc.)

On another note: After they take a defensive player with #5, I hope they make a move for Bijan Robinson. Putting Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant on the field at the same time. It has the big chunk play potential of approximating Aiyuk, Samuel, McCaffrey, and Kittle. Maybe not as renown, but still a very, very explosive offensive potential. Robinson could play the McAffrey role. That is the type of offense that the Brock Purdys of the world can thrive in. Geno just has to play point guard and put it in the hands of the playmakers. I still want the bruising, Chris Carson clone in the middle rounds as well.

I still contend that Mirer was not a bust. Gave us a solid rookie season and a pick that was used (through further trades) to land both Shawn Springs and Walter Jones in the same draft.

 

[Spin Doctor]

Again, you're assuming AR > Malik Willis............or any of the other potential or historical busts taken high.

WAY too many fans and media members projecting Richardson as an amazing NFL QB prospect, with very little football stats or tape to back it up, other than his crazy measurables and athletic ability.

We become enamored with highlight reels and combines, and have no idea how that translates to what GM's, coaches and scouts see beyond this stuff.

And to draw a line between "we've got the #5 pick and should use it on Richardson (or any other QB), because 1st round QB'S have a higher percentage of success" doesn't work for me.

Dude was projected as a 2nd round QB, and the 4th or 5th best QB in the entire draft in December. Now a lot of you guys think he's worthy of #5?

That's a reach for me.

People aren’t enamored with Richardson just because of his athletic gifts. There is a reason why he’s held in much higher regard than Malik Willis.

The first thing to note about Richardson is he improved very quickly. He adjusted really quickly when he made bad throws or reads. The player at the end of the year was much different than the one at the beginning of the year.

He made some throws at the collegiate level that only the best QBs in the NFL could make. His accuracy numbers are a very bad indication of his actual accuracy. His receivers struggled to catch anything and he was on a poor team.

In addition his accuracy issues are mostly related to mechanics. That is something that’s easier to fix. He’s also shown the ability to throw with anticipation.

Richardson is certainly raw and a project, but Malik Willis he is not. There are more things to like about him other than his physical attributes.

All things being considered I can understand why people are iffy on him.