Overtime rule

[AbsolutNET]

From an academic standpoint, has anybody compiled numbers on the coin toss winner versus game winner since they implemented the new OT system? It would be interesting if we could see the method of winning and distributions on possessions.

The old system wasn't as bad as people made it seem; the coin toss winners won the game roughly 60 percent of the time. Has it moved closer to even with this new system?

After the rule change, 66% of coin toss winners won in overtime during the 2012-13 season (16/24). That's a significant advantage.

http://plus.maths.org/content/toss-overtime

How many won on the opening possession?

 

[Shadowhawk]

66% overall advantage, and a 16% chance to win the overtime without ever giving the other team an opportunity to touch the ball, shows the inequity right there.

Compare that to the college football system, where the coin flip winner has a mere 2% advantage by starting on defense.

Your 66% statistic is flawed because it only covered the 2012 season. If you look at overtime games in the 2013 season, the winner of the coin flip ended up winning the game only SIX out of SIXTEEN times (38%):

Texans 30, Titans 24 9/15/13
Bengals 27, Bills 24 10/13/13
Dolphins 22, Bengals 20 10/31/13
Redskins 30, Chargers 24 11/3/13
Ravens 20, Bengals 17 11/10/13
Chargers 27, Chiefs 24 12/29/13

So the winner of the coin flip in overtime games in 2013 only won the game 38% of the time. If you combine your stat for 2012 (16 coin flip winners won in 24 overtime games) with the above stat for 2013, the winner of the coin flip won 22 OT games out of 40 in the last two full seasons. That amounts to only a 55% winning percentage for teams that won the coin toss in 2012 and 2013.

And if you think about it, it shouldn't be that surprising. The team that takes first possession has to score a touchdown to win whereas the team that starts out on defense only needs a field goal. So if the team that starts out on defense forces a turnover that immediately gives them an enormous advantage. Look at this year's Falcons-Saints game: the Saints won the toss, Colston fumbled, and Atlanta didn't even have to move a yard to kick the game-winning field goal.

Current NFL overtime rules are fine.

edit: the following game should also be listed: Giants 23, Lions 20 12/22/13. As a result, the winner of the coin toss in 2013 overtime games won 7 out of 16 times (44%) and combined totals for 2012 and 2013 seasons are 23 OT wins out of 40 games (58%)

 

[taco40]

From an academic standpoint, has anybody compiled numbers on the coin toss winner versus game winner since they implemented the new OT system? It would be interesting if we could see the method of winning and distributions on possessions.

The old system wasn't as bad as people made it seem; the coin toss winners won the game roughly 60 percent of the time. Has it moved closer to even with this new system?

After the rule change, 66% of coin toss winners won in overtime during the 2012-13 season (16/24). That's a significant advantage.

http://plus.maths.org/content/toss-overtime

So the loser of the coin flip has a chance?
And the game doesn't have to end in a tie? Go figure.

Instead of blaming the rules, and the 16% margin, why not take a good cold look at the defense that allowed the overtime drive run through them like melted butter. Fortunately, Pete took the shackles off of RW and allowed him to get away from being confined to the pocket (maybe RW just shook them off on his own) and added the dimension that we love about him, that he can will a team downfield with his arm AND legs. Should he always play like that? No. He'll end up on the RGIII trash heap if he isn't protected more than likely.

To change the rules takes defensive play out of the conversation, the deeper defensive team, which is thoroughly spent after 60 minutes of offense-encouraging rules interpretations is still part of the equation. In this particular game, Denver's defense was not the last defense on the field at the end of the game (save for the 10 second kneel-down).

 

[hawknation2014]

From an academic standpoint, has anybody compiled numbers on the coin toss winner versus game winner since they implemented the new OT system? It would be interesting if we could see the method of winning and distributions on possessions.

The old system wasn't as bad as people made it seem; the coin toss winners won the game roughly 60 percent of the time. Has it moved closer to even with this new system?

After the rule change, 66% of coin toss winners won in overtime during the 2012-13 season (16/24). That's a significant advantage.

http://plus.maths.org/content/toss-overtime

So the loser of the coin flip has a chance?
And the game doesn't have to end in a tie? Go figure.

Instead of blaming the rules, and the 16% margin, why not take a good cold look at the defense that allowed the overtime drive run through them like melted butter. Fortunately, Pete took the shackles off of RW and allowed him to get away from being confined to the pocket (maybe RW just shook them off on his own) and added the dimension that we love about him, that he can will a team downfield with his arm AND legs. Should he always play like that? No. He'll end up on the RGIII trash heap if he isn't protected more than likely.

To change the rules takes defensive play out of the conversation, the deeper defensive team, which is thoroughly spent after 60 minutes of offense-encouraging rules interpretations is still part of the equation. In this particular game, Denver's defense was not the last defense on the field at the end of the game (save for the 10 second kneel-down).

It doesn't take the defensive play out of the conversation, not at all. If the Seahawks' defense shuts down Peyton Manning and the Broncos, then they would win under the college football format.

 

[hawknation2014]

So the winner of the coin flip in overtime games in 2013 only won the game 38% of the time.

Do you have a link for this? That would indeed be interesting if true.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

They should treat overtime like a continuation of where they left off when the game ended. Same field position, same possession, same down and they just keep playing the fourth quarter until someone scores and the game ends.

No coin toss.

 

[twisted_steel2]

I went through and looked at every overtime game played under the current system, which was implemented in the postseason for 2010 and 2011 and expanded to the regular season in 2012.

44 overtime games have been played during that span. Out of those 44 games, only SEVEN times did the team winning the coin toss drive down and score a game-winning TD without the other team touching the ball:

Broncos 29, Steelers 23 1/8/12
Colts 19, Titans 13 10/28/12
Bucs 27, Panthers 21 11/18/12
Seahawks 23, Bears 17 12/2/12
Texans 30, Titans 24 9/15/13
Redskins 30, Chargers 24 11/3/13
Seahawks 26, Broncos 20 9/21/14

Teams that won the coin toss drove down and scored a game-winning touchdown on their first drive only 16% of the time. In the other 37 overtime games, both teams had possession at least once, even if the team that won the coin toss ultimately won the game. So in 84% of overtime games under the current system, both teams have gotten at least one possession.

NFL overtime rules are fine. The only reason this is an issue today is because Peyton Manning lost.

/thread

 

[SouthSoundHawk]

This topic brought to you by Huggies.

 

[Shadowhawk]

So the winner of the coin flip in overtime games in 2013 only won the game 38% of the time.

Do you have a link for this? That would indeed be interesting if true.

Well, I couldn't find any research on the subject so I did my own. I went to ESPN.com's NFL scoreboard and went through the 2013 season. When I came across an overtime game I went to the "Play by Play" tab to see how they were won, and whether the team who won the coin flip won the game.


Winner of game won coin toss:

Texans 30, Titans 24 9/15/13
Bengals 27, Bills 24 10/13/13
Dolphins 22, Bengals 20 10/31/13
Redskins 30, Chargers 24 11/3/13
Ravens 20, Bengals 17 11/10/13
Giants 23, Lions 20 12/22/13
Chargers 27, Chiefs 24 12/29/13


Winner of game LOST coin toss:

Seahawks 23, Texans 20 9/23/13
Jets 30, Patriots 27 10/20/13
Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 24 11/3/13
Bears 23, Ravens 20 11/17/13
Vikings 26, Packers 26 11/24/13
Patriots 34, Broncos 31 11/24/13
Vikings 23, Bears 20 12/1/13
Falcons 34, Bills 31 12/1/13
Cardinals 37, Titans 34 12/15/13

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/scoreboar ... ekNumber=1

(edited to fix Giants-Lions game)

 

[fenderbender123]

I think the real question isn't which team won (referencing the 66%). It's how many times the first drive in overtime resulted in a win. If both teams get the ball, it shouldn't count towards the discussion even if the team of first posession ends up being the winner.

This. Overall wins isn't a good measurement.

 

[chawx]

I like how on that Broncos-homer site OP linked to, even those fans don't think the overtime rules should change.

(URL: http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_265 ... cos-ending)

 

[hawknation2014]

So the winner of the coin flip in overtime games in 2013 only won the game 38% of the time.

Do you have a link for this? That would indeed be interesting if true.

Well, I couldn't find any research on the subject so I did my own. I went to ESPN.com's NFL scoreboard and went through the 2013 season. When I came across an overtime game I went to the "Play by Play" tab to see how they were won, and whether the team who won the coin flip won the game.


Winner of game won coin toss:

Texans 30, Titans 24 9/15/13
Bengals 27, Bills 24 10/13/13
Dolphins 22, Bengals 20 10/31/13
Redskins 30, Chargers 24 11/3/13
Ravens 20, Bengals 17 11/10/13
Chargers 27, Chiefs 24 12/29/13


Winner of game LOST coin toss:

Seahawks 23, Texans 20 9/23/13
Jets 30, Patriots 27 10/20/13
Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 24 11/3/13
Bears 23, Ravens 20 11/17/13
Vikings 26, Packers 26 11/24/13- Tie, there was no winner so this should not be included in the results
Patriots 34, Broncos 31 11/24/13
Vikings 23, Bears 20 12/1/13
Falcons 34, Bills 31 12/1/13
Cardinals 37, Titans 34 12/15/13
Giants 23, Lions 20 12/22/13- This is incorrect; Giants won the coin toss and the game

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/scoreboar ... ekNumber=1

Unfortunately, I don't have the patience or the time right now to sift through this data but I did notice at least a couple errors:

Vikings 26, Packers 26 11/24/13- Tie, there was no winner so this should not be included in the results.
Giants 23, Lions 20 12/22/13- This is incorrect; Giants won the coin toss and the game.

 

[Zebulon Dak]

OT rules are just fine. Sudden death is part of what makes OT in the NFL cool.

 

[ZagHawk]

The OP's version of what he heard on ESPN is the basis for all of this?

It's pretty spot-on. I saw the same thing this morning and was thinking the same thing. Why are they upset about this? As if there weren't other OT games where the other team's offense did not get a shot at the ball. i.e. Our Chicago game in 2012. No one complained then.

 

[pmedic920]

I'm in favor of a period of time, 8 mins, 12 mins, whatever. Play that time period just like the game. Whatever the score at the end of said period, determines the outcome of the game. Even if it's a tie.

Tie= better than a loss, worse than a win. Or .5 of either.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Please no college overtime rules they are the worst and go on forever. It's not like it's automatic to drive a team 80 yards for a touchdown anyway it happens rarely, most the time each team gets the ball once and someone kicks a field goal because of field position. The current rules are fine.

 

[bmorepunk]

There would probably be some merit to just ending at the 4th quarter with a tie if the score is even. This would fly in the face of tradition and probably result in a lot more ties in the standings, but it saves the players from getting beat up as much. Going to multiple overtimes goes the other way; players get torn up and gassed which affects them more down the road.

Thanks to Shadowhawk for going back and looking at numbers, even if a couple of things need to be cleaned up.

 

[Jacknut16]

66% overall advantage, and a 16% chance to win the overtime without ever giving the other team an opportunity to touch the ball, shows the inequity right there.

Compare that to the college football system, where the coin flip winner has a mere 2% advantage by starting on defense.

Your 66% statistic is flawed because it only covered the 2012 season. If you look at overtime games in the 2013 season, the winner of the coin flip ended up winning the game only SIX out of SIXTEEN times (38%):

Texans 30, Titans 24 9/15/13
Bengals 27, Bills 24 10/13/13
Dolphins 22, Bengals 20 10/31/13
Redskins 30, Chargers 24 11/3/13
Ravens 20, Bengals 17 11/10/13
Chargers 27, Chiefs 24 12/29/13

So the winner of the coin flip in overtime games in 2013 only won the game 38% of the time. If you combine your stat for 2012 (16 coin flip winners won in 24 overtime games) with the above stat for 2013, the winner of the coin flip won 22 OT games out of 40 in the last two full seasons. That amounts to only a 55% winning percentage for teams that won the coin toss in 2012 and 2013.

And if you think about it, it shouldn't be that surprising. The team that takes first possession has to score a touchdown to win whereas the team that starts out on defense only needs a field goal. So if the team that starts out on defense forces a turnover that immediately gives them an enormous advantage. Look at this year's Falcons-Saints game: the Saints won the toss, Colston fumbled, and Atlanta didn't even have to move a yard to kick the game-winning field goal.

Current NFL overtime rules are fine.

Great post

 

[Shadowhawk]

Unfortunately, I don't have the patience or the time right now to sift through this data but I did notice at least a couple errors:

Vikings 26, Packers 26 11/24/13- Tie, there was no winner so this should not be included in the results.
Giants 23, Lions 20 12/22/13- This is incorrect; Giants won the coin toss and the game.

You are correct about the Giants-Lions game, sorry for the mistake, but the Vikings-Packers game should absolutely be included. Your whole argument is that winning the coin toss gives a team an unfair advantage in an overtime game, and your only supporting evidence is counting the number of games won by teams that won the coin toss. Green Bay won the coin toss. They didn't win the game. So there was no advantage in that game and that game does count against your argument as a result.

Look, I don't want to belabor this anymore but the point is simple and the statistics back it up: changing the OT rules significantly lowered the number of games in which only one team had possession of the ball. Changing the OT rules significantly lowered the number of games in which the team that won the coin toss won the game. In my opinion there is no need to go to a college style system: the overtime rules are fine the way they are when both teams get the ball at least once in 84% of overtime games.

 

[hawknation2014]

Unfortunately, I don't have the patience or the time right now to sift through this data but I did notice at least a couple errors:

Vikings 26, Packers 26 11/24/13- Tie, there was no winner so this should not be included in the results.
Giants 23, Lions 20 12/22/13- This is incorrect; Giants won the coin toss and the game.

You are correct about the Giants-Lions game, sorry for the mistake, but the Vikings-Packers game should absolutely be included. Your whole argument is that winning the coin toss gives a team an unfair advantage in an overtime game, and your only supporting evidence is counting the number of games won by teams that won the coin toss. Green Bay won the coin toss. They didn't win the game. So there was no advantage in that game and that game does count against your argument as a result.

Look, I don't want to belabor this anymore but the point is simple and the statistics back it up: changing the OT rules significantly lowered the number of games in which only one team had possession of the ball. Changing the OT rules significantly lowered the number of games in which the team that won the coin toss won the game. In my opinion there is no need to go to a college style system: the overtime rules are fine the way they are when both teams get the ball at least once in 84% of overtime games.

It's incorrect because you listed it under "Winner of game LOST coin toss" when there was no winner in that game.

Assuming the rest of your data is correct, and including the three OT games from this season, the winner of the coin toss still has a 58% advantage since the most recent rule change.