Random Thoughts™ on the 49ers game

[Hawkscanner]

Another genius move? Abandoning our normal r/l db assignment sets and having Sherm tail Boldin. Roman moves Boldin around vs zone, it creates easy matchups. Not this time.

Yeah, that surprised me quite a bit too Scott. I didn't think there was any way in the world Seattle would do that. It's a bit like the old Box and 1 defense zone in basketball, where you tell 4 of your players to cover the zones at the 4 corners, and tell your quickest player (usually your point guard), "See #81 right there? He's your man tonight. Wherever he goes, you go." I'd have to go back and look at the tape again, but it sure seemed to me that they basically put Sherman on Boldin most of the night -- and poof! There's go the offense.

Good stuff Kearly, but I vehemently disagree about one thing, Kaepernick.

Let me say this, his mobility is tremendous and some of the best I've seen, but last night showed a guy who really lacks the nuances of playing QB. He was utterly lost when his first read wasn't there (something I've been saying for about a year now) and his ability to throw on the run is pretty awful. He could be extraordinarily dangerous if a) he looked to throw before running (though he is so effective it's hard to blame him) and b) if he was able to remain in control and throw with accuracy when he is on the move.

Again, he's a tremendous talent, but as far as being a QB is concerned, he has a long, long ways to go. Harbaugh is a QB genius, which I think will both help and hinder CK. It will help because it puts him in ideal situations. It hurts because it's a crutch toward's CKs shortcomings as a nuanced passer (ie progression, touch, mechanics/footwork).

Good call Hoyas ... and all points that I've pointed out in the past.

Kaepernick DOESN'T appear to be all that effective on the move. Here is what I posted in the Preview Thread prior to the game on that ...

After Week 1, seemingly all the national pundits have jumped on the Kaepernick bandwagon. And admittedly, throwing 408 yards against the Packers will certainly do that. Kaepernick looked as comfy back there in the pocket as Griffey used to look in his lazy boy back in the day. And like Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick has been touted as being an excellent QB on the move. But is that really true? Greg Cosell did an interesting study in which he took a look at QB’s and how they performed both inside and outside the pocket. Here are the results …

Quarterback	Inside the Pocket	Outside the Pocket
Russell Wilson	77.0	62.5
Colin Kaepernick	83.0	15.6

[tdo=3]2012 Total QBR Ratings …[/tdo]

Source:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/85661/cosells-thoughts-plus-qb-pocket-stats

The numbers clearly show that Russell Wilson on the run still performs at a near Pro Bowl Level. Colin Kaepernick on the other hand … not so much.

Pro Football Focus noted some interesting stats on Kaepernick under pressure in the Green Bay game last week that continue to highlight that same pattern …

- Kaepernick under pressure: 2-for-7 for 39 yards and a 50.3 QB Rating. In a clean pocket: 25-for-32 for 373 yards, three touchdowns and a QB Rating of 146.5.

The numbers clearly show that if you pressure Colin Kaepernick and get him on the move that he isn’t nearly as effective and he makes mistakes. Kaepernick had 9 fumbles last year … 7 of which were on plays in which he chose to run the ball.

Getting consistent pressure on Kaepernick will be huge in this game … and the numbers indicate that’s possible. Believe it or not, in 2012 Football Outsiders had San Francisco’s Offensive Line ranked #29 overall in terms of their pass protection. Well, a geeked up Hawks defense and a certifiably insane crowd are a bad combination for any offensive line.

Source:
http://www.seahawks.net/posting.php?mode=edit&f=2&p=1033859

Additionally, regarding your point about Kaepernick getting hung up looking for his 1st Read ... again, that does seem to be a real tendency of his. Here are the numbers that I posted last year heading in to that Week 16 (42-13) thumping of the 49ers. They're quite revealing ...

Here are the distribution of passes since Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting QB ...

Receiver	Catches	Yards	TD's	% of Passing Off
WR Michael Crabtree	34	428	4	33.0%
TE Vernon Davis	14	142	1	13.59%
WR Mario Manningham	13	171	0	12.62%
WR Randy Moss	10	127	1	9.70%
RB Frank Gore	9	92	1	8.73%
TE Delanie Walker	8	146	1	7.76%
FB Bruce Miller	7	55	0	6.79%
WR Kyle Williams	4	84	0	3.88%
RB LaMichael James	1	15	0	0.97%
WR Ted Ginn, Jr.	1	1	0	0.97%

[tdo=5]Distribution of Passes (Week 10-15)[/tdo]

The offensive numbers since Kaepernick took over are very revealing. Crabtree has been a whopping 1/3 of the 49ers passing offense – even more of a go to option than when Alex Smith was this team’s starting QB.

Source:
http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=59979

And that pattern appeared to continue in their Week 1 victory against the Packers. Anquan Boldin had 13 of the 27 catches in that game (48% of their passing attack.) That's going to be an interesting tendency to keep an eye on ... but at this point in time I'm inclined to agree -- if Kaepernick sees that his #1 Read is covered, he seems to struggle.

 

[lobohawk]

-Michael Bennett had a huge game. Him and Avril were monsters at anticipating the snap. It was hard not to notice.

-Cliff Avril is a different player than the Lions version. I think we might have gotten a steal in FA guys. The Lions version was all upfield all the time. This Seahawks version is a 2 gap player who can bull, cut inside or push the edge. He's actually very similar player at LEO to Michael Bennett. Lots of power and quickness with great instincts. Those two plus Clemons? And Irvin blitzing? With the rest of that defense? Not that keeping teams to 10.3 points a game is easy, but the 2000 Ravens had better watch their ass.

I didn't notice Avril anticipating the snap much, but I swore we were going to get a penalty flag for offside nearly every snap watching Bennett in real time - then seeing him rush as the ball was snapped on the replay thinking "wow, every single time he gets it spot on".

Also, I'm glad we've got our next 4 games when we do - Jacksonville will be cupcakes (and I would either sit Clemons or play him sporadically in that game since we won't really need him), Houston look beatable, then Irvin comes back and we've got Tennessee and Indianapolis for him to get up to gamespeed (though, having been fit through most of the offseason, he should be fine - if Avril can come in at 100mph, Irvin sure can too)

Also, I guess Wilson going 1-9 in the first half (not 1-10 as previously stated) means that after than he was 7-10 for 107 yards and a TD in the second half.
He's a stupidly good 2nd half player

"Also, I guess Wilson going 1-9 in the first half (not 1-10 as previously stated) means that after than he was 7-10 for 107 yards and a TD in the second half.
He's a stupidly good 2nd half player"

Was wondering about this part. So easy to write off his overall performance, due to the bad start. Nice to see him settle in and take what's given, have no turnovers, and make a play here 'n there to move the ball. Just what you need against a top defense.

 

[Zybot]

Great write up. The first half was so weird. How big of an effect was the weather delay? If I am Pete Carroll I am telling Rice no more ball spinning and I am telling Lynch no more delayed crossing of the goal line. But, Pete is Pete and I don't know if he will say anything to either player. The Lynch TD's -- no penalties, but you are giving the defense a chance to hit you unnecessarily.

I took a huge Harbaugh after this game and it felt good.

 

[aawolf]

I was down on RW too at the start of the night. But, then the second half turned my thinking. That shovel pass, which should be highlighted, was a thing of beauty--it looked spontaneous even if it was scripted (I don't know if it was or not). That's some Bret Farve sh---. I also think that the pressure from the 49ers would have caused a few turnovers from a lesser QB. By the end of the night, my motto was, once again, "Thank God for Russell Wilson".

I'm in awe of how good our defense is. It goes without saying that any QB and especially any RB we face is going to have problems. What was partially overlooked in your post was that we totally shut down the run. I've rarely seen that much total domination against a legit running attack. We made them look Astros bad for sure.

Finally, THANK YOU 12THS. I felt like I was there all night you all were so loud. You were the MVPs of the night in my book as well. I'm booking my ticket to a Seattle game at the Clink this season, which will be expensive and will be a cross-country trek, because you've inspired me that much. I just have to see a game there. You've pissed off my wife, but you've inspired me.

 

[Dreadbelch]

another hulk pic

 

[Sarlacc83]

You nailed my thoughts on the 49ers quitting, having Okung sit against Jacksonville, but I only partially agree about Kaepernick. The dude got picked off 3 times, and he was overthrowing wide open receivers. (One of which got picked by Kam Chancellor who looked like a center field catching a routine fly ball.) Those are not the signs of a calm and composed player. He might not have had 'the look', but he played the same part.

 

[Lieutenant Dan]

Thanks kearly...I was looking forward to this read this morning

First, on the Niners:

Objectively speaking, what the hell are they going to do going forward for their passing game? Plus, VD might be out for a bit with that hammy...

Next, on the Hawks:

Any reason why we don't do more short-passing in our offense? I love big plays and I know longer passes stretch the defense to open up the run game, but why not some more short stuff mixed in?

Having said that....I'm getting excited now for our offense because after two games they seem to be stirring. I do think we're still a little kinked without M-Rob's pass protection and lead blocking, but it looks like they are starting to get it rolling. JAX might be the game where we really get on track and get some rhythm.

 

[Year of The Hawk]

"Does anyone have a screen shot of Sea-Hulk staring lasers into the camera? It was during the shot of Sea-Fence guy standing next to Lime Green Elton John. If you didn't see it, you missed out. Sea-Hulk, if you are reading this, you are my hero."

Kearly that was friggin hilarious. I thought I might be the only one noticing. It looked like he knew the camera was on him and he just stared it down. To funny.

 

[gargantual]

Top rate stuff as always, thanks Kip (and everyone for that matter).

Speaking of quitting.....my wife's friends, 9er fans who came over to watch the game since they lost their satellite....no other type of TV up here in the Trinity Alps (other than the internet ).....left my house before the 3rd quarter had finished. They of course dismissed it as the better half being "tired", but it seems pretty clear they saw the writing on the wall and had given up on their beloved team. We've had enough late game heroics from Russell and the rest of our team that we literally know that we can still win it, down to the very last of the game. Pete's even "training" US that the game isn't won until the last second ticks off the game-clock.

Boy that was great! I have been a little superstitious, since we'd lost every time we'd watched over at THEIR house (3 Hawks/9ers match-ups in a row), until I tired of listening to the hubby's strutting and stayed at home to watch the 42-13 debacle at home last year. So I had trepidation (I have to begrudgingly admit) going into this game watching it with them again. I guess the "curse" is lifted, har har!

It almost would've been boring to win so decisively, if it had been over any other team (love to watch Hairball, KaeperPICK and the rest of the Whiners so stunned looking!). But it of course didn't seem so lopsided while watching it. I never lost my faith in Wilson's ability to pull it out magically at the end if so needed, but didn't really seem for sure until the 4th quarter rolled about half-way through and you just knew they didn't have a chance. You could literally see the defeat on their faces.

They are scared.

 

[Evil_Shenanigans]

Great write-up Kearly, much appreciated!
I don’t 100% agree with all of it but for the most part you saw what I saw.
• Wilson’s numbers sucked in the first half! But as is typical his stats bear the brunt of the receivers not catching balls that they should and/or just falling down at the end of the route! Regardless, it was not a great outing for Wilson, but nothing to bench him over either. He took some big league shots in this game and still stood in there and made em pay to the end! I posted a request in the shack to find that “Oh shit” bad snap clip and you came through!

• I sincerely hope that is the last ball-spin that Sydney Rice does as a Seahawk! When he did it I was jumping out of my seat and yelling at the TV in Slow motion NOOOOOOOO! And he did it anyway! Just plain foolish!

• I was really hoping to see Wilson be able to spread it around a bit more to the other receivers as well. I didn’t see Williams or Willson with a catch last night and don’t recall any throws to Turbin. But I have not had a chance to sit down with my trusty DVR yet, so anything’s possible.

• I agree that Lynch is sorely missing the trust he had with MRob. There are only two cures for that either give him more time to work with the new guys or try to bring MRob back where he belongs. In the grand scheme though I think we will see the new guys a bit more for the immediate future anyway.

• I saw something from Lynch I have not seen before. At one point he was getting mugged on the ground after the whistle, there was a little scuffle and he came up visibly pissed off at the offending Niner and had some words with the lad I could not make out. Great to see some real emotion from such an enigmatic, hard-nosed, fist in the mouth player such as he!

• What the hell was up with Max Unger getting two holding penalties? You know things are amiss when he is getting called for the hold.

• I was really hoping to see Chancellor have a similar impact to what he did early last year. I made mention of that to my buddy in the third quarter and then all of a sudden boom Chancellor made two big plays in succession as if to tell me to sit down and shut up! So I did.

• McQuistan filling in for Okung was not working out so great but they still kept running to that side late in the game. Breno actually looked really solid from what I saw but they rarely went his way. Perhaps it is back to that trust thing?
• Not going to big up Kaep here because I still think his maturity level and not his athleticism is in question!

• Great to finally see Bennett and Avril on the field together! We actually had a pass rush!

• The Byron Maxwell power slam was epic!

GO HAWKS!

 

[TwistedHusky]

Great analysis.

Sherman did a great job, but that ridiculous whistle (I hope that was NOT one of our fans) almost screwed up the momentum at the beginning, so you have to give extra credit to Thomas. Sherman is loud and visible, Thomas is just a guy that lurks in the shadows and shuts you down. That interception really helped keep the team on track when it got handed a raw deal early.

Also, kudos to the Seahawks for playing the first half with the referees looking like they must have had bets on the 49ers. Terrible one sided calls CONSTANTLY (but the 2nd half they started calling things to even things out...).

It must be noted, however, that Baldwin had another game where his clutch catches really kept us from rolling backwards. Anyone that wants to let him go is crazy, he has a knack for both getting open and coming back the QB when he is in trouble.

The job the offensive line did, against one of the best front sevens in football, was sterling. Plenty of flags, plenty of holding but with our best OL out it was a great job. Just as Wilson, having a horrible game, still kept from making a bad fumble or interception that would have negated all the hard work of our defense.

Everyone that called me an idiot for saying that we would not shut down Davis and Boldin, take a bow. I thought with Browner out that Walter was going have problems but he stepped up huge (also responsible for that key interception that kept the 49ers out of the end zone early). I am happy you all were so right and I was wrong. I had no idea that we could do that without Browner AND without Clemons, and I did not think that Avril was going to be able to just jump in and start making a huge difference without some rust.

Can you imagine what this team would look like with the defense playing like this AND the offense firing on all cylinders? We won a game against one of the best teams in the NFL with our QB and great WR group essentially stifled.

Finally, everyone that says we don't need Lynch anymore is crazy. That guy is the machine that keeps everything humming. Plus, his running keeps the defense rested so they can just go full speed the moment they are called on.

 

[Hawks46]

Thanks for the write up. Unbelievably, I didn't get to watch this game, so this one meant more to me.

Agreed on Tate returning punts. He's just so hard to bring down, it really plays into his lacking elite acceleration. It also makes for watching the most entertaining 5-7 yard punt returns in the league.

I think Turbin is the best possible change of pace back for us. He's great in pass pro, and has that extra gear that Lynch doesn't. He needs better blocking than Lynch to get through the line clean, but when he does, he gains yards much easier than Lynch does. Where Lynch would get 8 yards, make 5 guys miss and run 2 over, Turbin blows by 3 guys, trucks a DB and gets taken down by a safety at about 15.

Without Okung, our OL is a hot mess. Even on the radio, guys were talking about Carpenter getting bullrushed back into Wilson's lap by ALDON SMITH. Really ? Also, you might as well but a schoolgirl skirt on McQuistan and let Aldon Smith spank his ass the next time they match up like this. It's rare you can hear a completely dominant perfomance over the air with no visual aids, but Smith's was one.

 

[HawkFan72]

Top rate stuff as always, thanks Kip (and everyone for that matter).

Speaking of quitting.....my wife's friends, 9er fans who came over to watch the game since they lost their satellite....no other type of TV up here in the Trinity Alps (other than the internet ).....left my house before the 3rd quarter had finished. They of course dismissed it as the better half being "tired", but it seems pretty clear they saw the writing on the wall and had given up on their beloved team. We've had enough late game heroics from Russell and the rest of our team that we literally know that we can still win it, down to the very last of the game. Pete's even "training" US that the game isn't won until the last second ticks off the game-clock.

Boy that was great! I have been a little superstitious, since we'd lost every time we'd watched over at THEIR house (3 Hawks/9ers match-ups in a row), until I tired of listening to the hubby's strutting and stayed at home to watch the 42-13 debacle at home last year. So I had trepidation (I have to begrudgingly admit) going into this game watching it with them again. I guess the "curse" is lifted, har har!

It almost would've been boring to win so decisively, if it had been over any other team (love to watch Hairball, KaeperPICK and the rest of the Whiners so stunned looking!). But it of course didn't seem so lopsided while watching it. I never lost my faith in Wilson's ability to pull it out magically at the end if so needed, but didn't really seem for sure until the 4th quarter rolled about half-way through and you just knew they didn't have a chance. You could literally see the defeat on their faces.

They are scared.

Never watch the game at their house again. Please.

 

[Exittium]

I think we need to have like a the the Sea-Hulk thread where each home game or hawks game in general we spot him out and put pics up .. when he stared down the camera.. I turned away as if to avoid letting him look into my soul .. then I turned back quickly to cheer him on since I realized that stare down was for the 49ers and their fans..

 

[hawk45]

Great analysis.

Sherman did a great job, but that ridiculous whistle (I hope that was NOT one of our fans) almost screwed up the momentum at the beginning, so you have to give extra credit to Thomas. Sherman is loud and visible, Thomas is just a guy that lurks in the shadows and shuts you down. That interception really helped keep the team on track when it got handed a raw deal early.

Also, kudos to the Seahawks for playing the first half with the referees looking like they must have had bets on the 49ers. Terrible one sided calls CONSTANTLY (but the 2nd half they started calling things to even things out...).

It must be noted, however, that Baldwin had another game where his clutch catches really kept us from rolling backwards. Anyone that wants to let him go is crazy, he has a knack for both getting open and coming back the QB when he is in trouble.

The job the offensive line did, against one of the best front sevens in football, was sterling. Plenty of flags, plenty of holding but with our best OL out it was a great job. Just as Wilson, having a horrible game, still kept from making a bad fumble or interception that would have negated all the hard work of our defense.

Everyone that called me an idiot for saying that we would not shut down Davis and Boldin, take a bow. I thought with Browner out that Walter was going have problems but he stepped up huge (also responsible for that key interception that kept the 49ers out of the end zone early). I am happy you all were so right and I was wrong. I had no idea that we could do that without Browner AND without Clemons, and I did not think that Avril was going to be able to just jump in and start making a huge difference without some rust.

Can you imagine what this team would look like with the defense playing like this AND the offense firing on all cylinders? We won a game against one of the best teams in the NFL with our QB and great WR group essentially stifled.

Finally, everyone that says we don't need Lynch anymore is crazy. That guy is the machine that keeps everything humming. Plus, his running keeps the defense rested so they can just go full speed the moment they are called on.

Re: Boldin and Davis being shut down, I would bow, but my desire during the week was for us to break tendency and to have Sherman follow Boldin around because he's their only weapon. That's exactly what we did. So at most you get partial credit.

 

[samwize77]

another hulk pic

Gotta put this pic on the door leading to the visitors looker room!

 

[samwize77]

Thanks Kip. Great insights as always! The one thing I noticed, and I'll have to watch the game again. But when we got the safety I could kinda of see the wind starting to go out of the niners. Thats where it started I think. They tried after, of course, but from then on it just wasn't there for them.

 

[NinerBuff]

The game was lost when Kaep's pass in the endzone was deflected and picked... We had a little momentum from the blocked kick. In a hostile environment, those few opportunities can't be squandered.

Overall, the Niners offensive was terrible, starting with Kaep. It's no coincidence that the only two bad games of his career have been in Seattle. The Oline wasn't able to keep the pocket and the Seattle secondary did a great job of eliminating first options on most routes.

On defense, the Niners did a good job of keeping the game close, but the multiple turnovers led to the score ballooning in the end.

While I wasn't surprised with the outcome of the game, I did expect a closer game. The weather / delay reduced the effectiveness of the passing game for both teams. This win puts Seattle firmly in the lead in the NFC and SF will have to win in Candlestick in order to keep the pressure on SEA.

The pressure was on SEA to win at home. They did, and now the pressure shifts to the Niners to respond.

 

[Blitzer88]

Great stuff again Kearly.

 

[Happypuppy]

Not much to add to a very good analysis I saw

- the O line did handle a 7 man rush that was nice to see
- RW seemed really hyper in the first half. I think that contributed to the bad half. The game then slowed down again for him and he improved
- McQ or the Rookie next week? He really has a problem with edge and power rushes
- DB's were superb
- Bobby was doing a much better at coverage. KJ was decent and missed a couple assignments
Bennett. I can't say enough about his motor. Avril looks very good
-Carp is redeeming himself looked a 100% better