RW's extension speculation

[mikeak]

RW can always go less with more guaranteed.

Could he get $20M plus - I think so. I do doubt the $24M.

I wouldn't be surprised if he settled for 5 years at $16M / year with almost all or all guaranted. That would be an extension so it would mean he was here for 6 years for $13M / year so somewhere between that and $19M / year for five year extension

Out of that you will probably see $65M guaranteed

Financial safety while not killing the team

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Based on inflation. I agree that Rodgers is worth more than Wilson, but contracts steadily go up as the cap continues to increase, and Rodgers's extension predates that unexpectedly large cap increase that we saw. Russell may fall a bit short of $24 million, but you're not going to see him get less than Rodgers despite being the lesser player.

People keep focusing on 24M for Rodgers, but that's not accurate. The biggest cap hit he's going to cost the Packers is 21M, and that's in 2019.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-pa ... n-rodgers/

His contract is front loaded with roster bonuses, and that IMO is the plan Pete and John are going to take with Russell. Give him a ton of guaranteed cash so that the cap hit stays relatively low until the end of the contract. Which we all know means if Russell's still a good QB in 3-4 years, you tear up the contract and do it all over again.

That way the cap hit is less than 20M for a good four years.

 

[Hollywood_N_Vine]

Don't forget, he plays at least half his games in Washington state , where there is no income tax. Plus, I believe he resides here as well....another tax bonus. Hopefully he sees that and takes a little discount...but you can't blame him if he doesn't.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Based on inflation. I agree that Rodgers is worth more than Wilson, but contracts steadily go up as the cap continues to increase, and Rodgers's extension predates that unexpectedly large cap increase that we saw. Russell may fall a bit short of $24 million, but you're not going to see him get less than Rodgers despite being the lesser player.

People keep focusing on 24M for Rodgers, but that's not accurate. The biggest cap hit he's going to cost the Packers is 21M, and that's in 2019.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-pa ... n-rodgers/

His contract is front loaded with roster bonuses, and that IMO is the plan Pete and John are going to take with Russell. Give him a ton of guaranteed cash so that the cap hit stays relatively low until the end of the contract. Which we all know means if Russell's still a good QB in 3-4 years, you tear up the contract and do it all over again.

That way the cap hit is less than 20M for a good four years.

Yeah, fair point. This is the way they structured Sherm and Earl. It does make good sense for both the player and the club, since the player gets more guarantees and the club gets the discount for a player that they're never going to want to let go of anyway outside of an injury situation.

 

[Hawks46]

I know we all want a value contract for Russell, but seriously, look at what QBs are out there, and what they're getting paid.

Is anyone saying they'd rather have Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, or Matt Stafford as a QB instead of Wilson ? Heck no, yet all those guys are getting from 18-20 million. I'd argue Romo is a damned good QB in that range, yet with his age and injuries, I still wouldn't take him over Wilson.

A value contract for us is going to be 20-22 million, and after the cap goes up, 22 million is going to look good in 3 years.

If we really are only paying Wilson 800k next year, we'll be in good shape to sign other FA's (Wagner) and forward some of Russ's money to him. Hell, he's in the middle of a divorce, so he may not want money front loaded, but it would work for the team.

Sure, I'd like to see him at 18 mill a year and sign everyone back on our defense, but it won't happen. Take the average money QBs worse than Wilson are making, and it's 18-19 million for QBs that are unanimously considered worse than Wilson. If we don't pay him that money, someone will, that's what sets the market.

I'm getting used to the fact that we're going to see some guys leave because of this, but I'd still rather have Wilson at QB. I think he can still get better, and he has the attitude and drive to continue to improve, so the money won't ruin him.

 

[mikeak]

^ there is no reason to front load money - none whatsover (ok unless you are way way below the cap so you may get hit with penalties).

Unused amount now gets added to next year so you just make good deals, keep the cap room for current year in case you need other pieces and if you don't use it you have it for next year

 

[Sgt. Largent]

^ there is no reason to front load money - none whatsover (ok unless you are way way below the cap so you may get hit with penalties).

Unused amount now gets added to next year so you just make good deals, keep the cap room for current year in case you need other pieces and if you don't use it you have it for next year

The reason you front load money is because Russell won't sign a long extension without it. Front loaded contracts with roster bonuses is the ONLY way NFL players get paid, because they know 90% of the time they'll never see the last years of their contract.

That's the trade off, low average salary for front loaded guaranteed money up front.

 

[onanygivensunday]

Russell's going nowhere because the Seahawks aren't going to low-ball him so arguments/comments about what other teams would pay him are moot.

He'll get paid what he deserves and Pete/John will find a way to keep it team-friendly to the extent possible.

I'd say anything close to a $20M cap hit per year starting in 2016 is reasonable and appropriate compensation.

 

[akscoundrel]

Jay cutler aside (lol bears), the realistic market value for a good/keeper qb is in the 10-15 mil range IMO. Sure, you can look at the amount of money Rodgers got and divide it by the years, but in reality, the bulk of that money is in the last couple of years of his contract. The renegotiation years. So saying he's making 20 mil this year is incorrect. His salary is actually half that. Unless I'm missing something?

That said, IMO you can certainly justify giving Wilson 20-22 mil a year. Wilson's no cutler. But just saying, IMO 14-18 mil is more 'right'.

 

[jblaze]

Jay cutler aside (lol bears), the realistic market value for a good/keeper qb is in the 10-15 mil range IMO. Sure, you can look at the amount of money Rodgers got and divide it by the years, but in reality, the bulk of that money is in the last couple of years of his contract. The renegotiation years. So saying he's making 20 mil this year is incorrect. His salary is actually half that. Unless I'm missing something?

That said, IMO you can certainly justify giving Wilson 20-22 mil a year. Wilson's no cutler. But just saying, IMO 14-18 mil is more 'right'.

I'm not sure what you mean by "right". There's no chance RW goes for 14-18m.

Good/keeper QB in the 10-15m range is not realistic.

Flacco and Rodgers set the curve the year before last. Dalton and Kap are a tier lower and got paid as such this past offseason. RW is tier 1 and will set the new curve for people like Luck.

 

[akscoundrel]

Jay cutler aside (lol bears), the realistic market value for a good/keeper qb is in the 10-15 mil range IMO. Sure, you can look at the amount of money Rodgers got and divide it by the years, but in reality, the bulk of that money is in the last couple of years of his contract. The renegotiation years. So saying he's making 20 mil this year is incorrect. His salary is actually half that. Unless I'm missing something?

That said, IMO you can certainly justify giving Wilson 20-22 mil a year. Wilson's no cutler. But just saying, IMO 14-18 mil is more 'right'.

I'm not sure what you mean by "right". There's no chance RW goes for 14-18m.

Good/keeper QB in the 10-15m range is not realistic.

Flacco and Rodgers set the curve the year before last. Dalton and Kap are a tier lower and got paid as such this past offseason. RW is tier 1 and will set the new curve for people like Luck.

Sorry about the pm, didn't mean to do dat

Flaccos salary is around 6 mil this year, and Rodgers is around 10. The 20 mil a year salary doesn't happen until the last couple of years, the restructure or we will look at cutting/trading you years. But yeah, under this structure 10-15 mil is very realistic.

 

[bigcc]

Jay cutler aside (lol bears), the realistic market value for a good/keeper qb is in the 10-15 mil range IMO. Sure, you can look at the amount of money Rodgers got and divide it by the years, but in reality, the bulk of that money is in the last couple of years of his contract. The renegotiation years. So saying he's making 20 mil this year is incorrect. His salary is actually half that. Unless I'm missing something?

That said, IMO you can certainly justify giving Wilson 20-22 mil a year. Wilson's no cutler. But just saying, IMO 14-18 mil is more 'right'.

I'm not sure what you mean by "right". There's no chance RW goes for 14-18m.

Good/keeper QB in the 10-15m range is not realistic.

Flacco and Rodgers set the curve the year before last. Dalton and Kap are a tier lower and got paid as such this past offseason. RW is tier 1 and will set the new curve for people like Luck.

Sorry about the pm, didn't mean to do dat

Flaccos salary is around 6 mil this year, and Rodgers is around 10. The 20 mil a year salary doesn't happen until the last couple of years, the restructure or we will look at cutting/trading you years. But yeah, under this structure 10-15 mil is very realistic.

Salary is irrelevant as long as the guarantee is running, cap hit is what matters. Rodgers is sitting at 17.5 this year, flacco at 14.8 vs. the cap.

There is zero chance Wilson goes even one season of hitting just 10 vs. the cap on this contract.

 

[jblaze]

I think you're referring to the base salary. I think most here are talking about average.

Also the only thing that really matters is salary cap figure and Flacco is 15m this year.

For instance, Kap technically got 19m average even though it's dependent on a lot of factors. RW will get 20-22m average over the life of the contract. It's the only way to compare and contrast these contracts accurately.

In the end, only two figures really matter. Guaranteed dollars and salary cap hit each year.

 

[bigcc]

I think you're referring to the base salary. I think most here are talking about average.

Also the only thing that really matters is salary cap figure and Flacco is 15m this year.

For instance, Kap technically got 19m average even though it's dependent on a lot of factors. RW will get 20-22m average over the life of the contract. It's the only way to compare and contrast these contracts accurately.

In the end, only two figures really matter. Guaranteed dollars and salary cap hit each year.

+1

Base salary only becomes a point even worth debating when the lions share of the guaranteed money has been used

 

[akscoundrel]

I think you're referring to the base salary. I think most here are talking about average.

Also the only thing that really matters is salary cap figure and Flacco is 15m this year.

For instance, Kap technically got 19m average even though it's dependent on a lot of factors. RW will get 20-22m average over the life of the contract. It's the only way to compare and contrast these contracts accurately.

In the end, only two figures really matter. Guaranteed dollars and salary cap hit each year.

I agree that cap hit is what matters, but then why would my assertion that he gets paid in the 14-18 mil range be absurd? I mean sure, hypothetically/theoretically kaep is averaging 19 mil a year, but the reality is his cap hit is much lower than that, he's getting way less. More like 10 mil. What's the difference between Wilson just getting paid 15 mil straight up as per his contract, or getting 22 mil theoretically(average) but only really getting paid 15 mil?

I obviously don't know much about how all this works, just trying to learn more than anything. I'm not worried about what Wilson gets paid, because if there's one thing the front office has proven, its that they know what they are doing and have prepared for it.

Edit:just saw your pm, makes more sense now

 

[jblaze]

There's a lot of moving parts in an NFL QB contract. Things like base salary, signing bonuses, incentives, roster bonuses, performance bonuses, salary cap hits, escalators, guaranteed for injury, guaranteed for performance, etc.

There isn't really anything wrong with your numbers per se, it's just not what people use as a comparison tool in regards to NFL contracts. It can get overly confusing to get into the details so people use the average to quantify salaries from a comparison perspective. It's just easier is all.

I love the front office game and I pay close attention to it. You can really tell what the team is going to do now and even 2-3 years in the future by how they construct these contracts and what moves they make. You can gain a lot of insight otherwise that is unavailable to us about how they feel about players or potential scheme changes or fits based on even practice squad moves or IR designations. I find it fascinating to watch Schneider do his thing. He's quite possibly the best in the business and he's doing it the right way.

 

[mikeak]

^ there is no reason to front load money - none whatsover (ok unless you are way way below the cap so you may get hit with penalties).

Unused amount now gets added to next year so you just make good deals, keep the cap room for current year in case you need other pieces and if you don't use it you have it for next year

The reason you front load money is because Russell won't sign a long extension without it. Front loaded contracts with roster bonuses is the ONLY way NFL players get paid, because they know 90% of the time they'll never see the last years of their contract.

That's the trade off, low average salary for front loaded guaranteed money up front.

Hmm you completely missed / ignored that signing bonuses (from a cap standpoint split on 5 years) AND money designated as guaranteed are just that - guaranteed.

You can make the fifth year $100 million guaranteed and you are stuck with it. Sure you can split that on more years later ON TOP of other money but players always gets the guaranteed money.

No reason to front load

 

[AgentDib]

I would jump to bet under on $22m/year. The contracts for three of the four contracts that Spotrac is averaging are full of buyer's remorse and the exception is the best QB in the league.

The Hawks have a lot of leverage with one more year to go. RW playing out his contract and then getting $26m for 6 years on the open market is about the same Present Value as getting $15m for 6 years now and then working a new deal for the 7th year with a 10% discount rate (time value of money). He's going to get a lot more than $15m for other reasons but the financial incentive will be for him to take the extension. The amount past $15m will be dictated by things like reputation and perception of value.

 

[Brahn]

6-7 years 18mill average book it. With 60% or more Guaranteed.

 

[StoneCold]

Ok, my thread was locked so I'll ask it here. What will stop another team from offering him 30 Mill? And would you pay that much?

SC