Seahawks, Niners still NFL's two best teams, all drama aside

[HawkWow]

IF Lattimore is 100%, and reports suggest he is, I'd trade Michael for him in a second. Lattimore on and off the field, is the total package, I'm unsure exactly what Michael is.

What's funny and I don't necessarily believe this, is that Jim says he will depend much more on Kaep and the passing game this year while running the ball less. This makes no sense to me at all. No disrespect to Gore, I just think he's done, but behind that SF line, Harbaugh has two borderline stars in Lattimore and Hyde. Their running game should be akin to the old Browns with Mack and Byner. This isn't the time I'd be "depending more on the passing game" if I were the 9ers...and I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Hawks46]

I like the fact that people generally view Seattle and SF as the two best teams in the NFL. It's good for the rivalry, it's good for media attention, and it's good for fans of those franchises and it's good for the league.

That said, Seattle and SF are not the two best teams in the league.

Seattle is clearly #1. They ranked #1 with a comfortable margin in DVOA each of the last two seasons, and last season they also ranked #1 in Advanced NFL Stats team efficiency rankings as well.

SF... ranked #7 in DVOA last season, and ranked #6 by Advanced NFL stats. SF was close to being a top two team in 2012, but not so much in 2013.

I think if you want to argue SF as the #2 team in football in 2014, you'd have to put a lot of stock in the improvement at WR. SF did play significantly better after Crabtree returned, and Johnson is a good slot receiver. But their defense is getting older and their two best defensive players have issues to deal with this season (Smith, legal; Bowman, injury).

I think it is a much more accurate description to say they are two elite teams, but the two best teams seems like a stretch. I know Denver just got their asses kicked, but over the last two seasons overall they've been easily the NFL's second best team.

I see how you get there. Can't argue too much.

From the moment Crabtree was hurt last year it felt like the 49ers were playing under a cloud. Just couldn't ever quite seem to get everything working on all cylinders

Crabtree getting hurt, Vernon getting hurt, Willis getting hurt, Aldon and his legal and personal problems...just always seemed to be something holding them back.

They turned a corner at the end and just lost in one of the best games I've ever seen.

They start off this year already under that cloud again with Aldon still in question and Bowman out for a significant amount of time. We'll just have to see if they can fight through it the way they did last year to have a shot there at the end.

I honestly think you've made up some ground with the Stevie Johnson pickup, but WR isn't the biggest thing holding you guys back, it's your QB. You look at all the games, when Crabtree was out, Boldin was the man. If Boldin was doubled a lot, then Davis was the man. When Crabtree came back, Davis disappeared, while Boldin did a bit. The games Davis had a good game, Boldin didn't.

What this shows is that Kaepernick hasn't learned to progress to his 3rd read yet, so Johnson isn't that large of a pickup until Kap can progress beyond 2 reads. I'm not saying he can't ,but it's harder for the running QBs to do so because it's "read 1, read 2.....run". Manning and Brady don't have the run option, so they've gotten along with hitting 4 and 5 WRs. This is where Wilson has it all over Kap because he's proven he can spread the ball around to everyone. We will have 3 and 4 guys with 4+ receptions in a game, and it happens almost every game. It leads people to think we have an average WR corps, where in reality there isn't that many balls in the air for one guy to catch 10 a game when the ball is getting spread around.

I'm also curious as to how losing Bowman is going to affect the Niners, and what happens with Aldon's legal issues. The Niners picked up his option, so they've shown they're going to ride him until the league puts him down, but none of us know when that will be, and for how long.

I honestly think there's a few more issues with the Niners, but not enough for me to quit worrying about them. I'll also worry more about Arizona when they can actually beat the Niners, which they haven't done in a while.

 

[HawkWow]

Why...what did Aldon do?


Yes, I'm joking.

 

[Marvin49]

IF Lattimore is 100%, and reports suggest he is, I'd trade Michael for him in a second. Lattimore on and off the field, is the total package, I'm unsure exactly what Michael is.

What's funny and I don't necessarily believe this, is that Jim says he will depend much more on Kaep and the passing game this year while running the ball less. This makes no sense to me at all. No disrespect to Gore, I just think he's done, but behind that SF line, Harbaugh has two borderline stars in Lattimore and Hyde. Their running game should be akin to the old Browns with Mack and Byner. This isn't the time I'd be "depending more on the passing game" if I were the 9ers...and I'll just leave it at that.

In the end, I don't think they'll throw away the running game. I think they just want to be able to pass more when they need to.

I can only hope the backfield is like those old Browns...but I don't want the fumble at the 1. Poor Byner. At least he got his with the Redskins.

 

[Smellyman]

Kaep didn't have Crabtree....excuses made for him becuase his ceiling is so high

Wilson had no Rice, no Harvin, the rest are "pedestrian", a banged up Miller who missed time, 2 OL starters out for much of the year, a non exeistant guard and a hurt center all year who also missed 3 games. Yet nobody in the media or elsewhere gave Wilson a break. All he did was go out and perform like a man all year and win the super bowl.




but Kaep didn't have Crabtree.

 

[RichNhansom]

I wouldn't be so proud of Reid making the pro bowl as an alternate. For whatever reason being mediocre on the 49ers is good enough to get you all pro votes as we seen with Goldson and Whitner. Reid looks like a good pick but so far he is no where near the elite level of FS's and no way in hell should he have been a pro bowl alternate.

 

[GLOCKHAWK]

Blah blah blah...as a hardcore Seahawks fan, this season is gonna be a "bloodbath!!"

 

[loafoftatupu]

I am in the camp that the Niners adding weapons for Kaeperstank won't return the value they would some other QBs.

This thing about him targeting one, maybe 2 guys at best is for real. He will be able to use the weapons, but not in the way many QBs would.

He has a genuine habit that doesn't necessarily show itself when playing average defenses. But a little pressure goes a long way with Kaeperchoke, whether it be a hurry, strip, a pick or getting a sack before he can wheel. Sure, he will find Johnson, it will be in those plays he called for Johnson. Where he reduces the value is in the late separation of WRs or the guy who is just plain open.

 

[kearly]

IF Lattimore is 100%, and reports suggest he is, I'd trade Michael for him in a second. Lattimore on and off the field, is the total package, I'm unsure exactly what Michael is.

I'm not saying Lattimore is a bum, but his college tape was strikingly similar to Knowshon Moreno's, a guy with great moves, decent size and solid explosiveness, and good receiving skills, but not much speed. IIRC, Lattimore only had 1 carry in his career that was in excess of 27 yards. Something like that. I like Moreno and laughed all the way to the bank after picking him up off waivers last year. Really solid back, I see Lattimore as being the same. And that's if he stays healthy, which given his history there, is doubtful.

The 49ers just drafted arguably the best RB in the draft with their 2nd round pick. I think he's going to be the guy for them after Gore, unless he drops the ball. I don't think they would have done that if SF had illusions of grandeur for Lattimore.

Personally, I just hope the slower RB wins the job. Seattle has been mostly dominant against slow RBs.

 

[lsheldon]

I'm beginning to think that Marvin49 spends so much time here because he's secretly a Seahawks fan. He just hasn't come to grips with it yet. Let go bro, come on over there's always room for one more.

 

[loafoftatupu]

I wouldn't be so proud of Reid making the pro bowl as an alternate. For whatever reason being mediocre on the 49ers is good enough to get you all pro votes as we seen with Goldson and Whitner. Reid looks like a good pick but so far he is no where near the elite level of FS's and no way in hell should he have been a pro bowl alternate.

Reid is awesome at getting interceptions when the receiver falls down.

 

[lsheldon]

I am in the camp that the Niners adding weapons for Kaeperstank won't return the value they would some other QBs.

This thing about him targeting one, maybe 2 guys at best is for real. He will be able to use the weapons, but not in the way many QBs would.

He has a genuine habit that doesn't necessarily show itself when playing average defenses. But a little pressure goes a long way with Kaeperchoke, whether it be a hurry, strip, a pick or getting a sack before he can wheel. Sure, he will find Johnson, it will be in those plays he called for Johnson. Where he reduces the value is in the late separation of WRs or the guy who is just plain open.

Interesting article on FieldGulls.com on "Defense Adjusted YPA Efficiency for Playoff QBs" that backs this up. Here is one quote from the article.

Luck and Wilson do actually get a bit better against tough opponents, but where we see the biggest change in the face of tough opponents is--woah!--Holy Moly, Mr. Kaepernick! Hang on, lemme check that a sec...

Okay yeah, looking a little deeper into these numbers we see that Colin Kaepernick goes from an astounding 137% against ten non-playoff teams, to just 83.72% defense adjusted yard-attempt efficiency against playoff-bound opponents.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/6/15/581 ... layoff-qbs

 

[loafoftatupu]

Interesting article on FieldGulls.com on "Defense Adjusted YPA Efficiency for Playoff QBs" that backs this up. Here is one quote from the article.

Luck and Wilson do actually get a bit better against tough opponents, but where we see the biggest change in the face of tough opponents is--woah!--Holy Moly, Mr. Kaepernick! Hang on, lemme check that a sec...

Okay yeah, looking a little deeper into these numbers we see that Colin Kaepernick goes from an astounding 137% against ten non-playoff teams, to just 83.72% defense adjusted yard-attempt efficiency against playoff-bound opponents.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/6/15/581 ... layoff-qbs

That is evident by the SF/SEA matchups. In all 4 that CK has played, even the game that he won he was outperformed by Wilson even though Wilson threw a last chance hail Mary that was picked off. Heh.. 2 of SFs picks on Wilson were when the receiver fell down and one was off Turbin's hands. Otherwise there are none.

Head to head

Wilson 7TDs, 3INTs, Avg. Rating 91.2
Kaep. 3TDs, 7INTs, Avg. Rating 54

Wilson has thrown for more yards in all games except the 2012 Massacre in which KaeperSpaz had garbage yards.

 

[Atradees]

You nerds are getting out your stats rulers again...Sweet.

 

[chris98251]

Denver was the best AFC team, I would pit all the NFC West against them and would say the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams would have beat them 9 out of ten times and the Cards probably 7 of ten. Carolina 7 of ten as well.

They showed take the RAC away and they are a different team, beat them up and they collapse, all the NFC West teams play that way and Carolina as well.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Denver was the best AFC team, I would pit all the NFC West against them and would say the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams would have beat them 9 out of ten times and the Cards probably 7 of ten. Carolina 7 of ten as well.

They showed take the RAC away and they are a different team, beat them up and they collapse, all the NFC West teams play that way and Carolina as well.

Excellent point.

 

[hawknation2014]

The 49ers' secondary is wack. They're relying on an unproven CB who is currently facing felony charges for a hit and run and threatening someone with illegal brass knuckles. They lost Donte Whitner, one of the best safeties in the league, and replaced him with Antoine Bethea, who is on the downward slide as a cover man. Meanwhile, they're delusional enough to think their First Rounder Jimmie Ward will be the next Earl Thomas, when in reality Ward managed just nine reps on the bench press and consistently takes bad angles.

Justin Smith will be 35 years old. Bowman will still be recovering from his severe knee injuries this year. And Aldon Smith may be in jail or suspended indefinitely for his multiple felonies that occurred during a shootout at his house party with illegal assault weapons, a second DUI after slamming his car into a tree with a .15 BAC, and his fourth arrest for a bomb threat at LAX.

Plus, Frank Gore's production is declining, they have no center, and Colin Kaepernick is poison when the game is in his hands. Overall, the 49ers have drafted terribly over the last three years. Not worried.

Go Hawks! :th2thumbs:

 

[NINEster]

The 49ers' secondary is wack. They're relying on an unproven CB who is currently facing felony charges for a hit and run and threatening someone with illegal brass knuckles. They lost Donte Whitner, one of the best safeties in the league, and replaced him with Antoine Bethea, who is on the downward slide as a cover man. Meanwhile, they're delusional enough to think their First Rounder Jimmie Ward will be the next Earl Thomas, when in reality Ward managed just nine reps on the bench press and consistently takes bad angles.

Justin Smith will be 35 years old. Bowman will still be recovering from his severe knee injuries this year. And Aldon Smith may be in jail or suspended indefinitely for his multiple felonies that occurred during a shootout at his house party with illegal assault weapons, a second DUI after slamming his car into a tree with a .15 BAC, and his fourth arrest for a bomb threat at LAX.

Plus, Frank Gore's production is declining, they have no center, and Colin Kaepernick is poison when the game is in his hands. Overall, the 49ers have drafted terribly over the last three years. Not worried.

Go Hawks! :th2thumbs:

Threads like this (and this post in particular) are a good reason to visit enemy forums.

It's good to see the opposing viewpoint. Some are very fair.

a) Question marks on Aldon, Bowman -- guys are still on the team, and by late season shall be a force. Even Crabtree's absence was mitigated and the team won 12 games with him gone for most. I don't put huge stock on injuries coming into the season....just the untimely ones late in the year.

b) Donte Whitner is one of the best safeties in the league? Really? This is similar to the "Alex Smith is a better QB than Kaepernick" argument I've occasionally seen on here as well. Only good when gone, but s*** when here, I'm sure.

It's stuff like that that throws a big asterisk to the entire post. Until a good chunk of people on .NET agree with you about Whitner, then you gotta understand how it is viewed through red and gold lenses.

Kearly likes to use DVOA as this end all be all football stat, but the team that won the most games regular season and playoffs the last two seasons wasn't Seattle or Denver, it was San Francisco. SF doing it with a first place schedule and a tough conference. I'd wager the 2012 Seattle DVOA ranking was heavily based on some second half blowouts. When you looked at common opponents in 2012, the 49ers delivered more thorough defeats and often on the road too (@New England, @Green Bay, Chicago).

Extend it 3 years running, same results. Only thing holding them back is a Lombardi, but the most consistent top team in the league since 2011 is SF.

Even last year, with the Seahawks being consistently a better team than the 49ers they only managed to win one more game during the regular season, and barely edged them to go to the Super Bowl. With their higher DVOA and better home field advantage, it's quite telling that the 49ers are far greater than the sum of their parts.

You can use #s all you want, but the result you'll get is games like the NFCC.

The wait for this season is brutal.

 

[mrblitz]

i think the saints could also beat the broncos; maybe not the way the seahawks etc. would, but the saints would find a way; maybe in more of a shootout.

 

[hawknation2014]

Donte Whitner is one of the best safeties in the league? Really? This is similar to the "Alex Smith is a better QB than Kaepernick" argument I've occasionally seen on here as well. Only good when gone, but s*** when here, I'm sure.

It's stuff like that that throws a big asterisk to the entire post. Until a good chunk of people on .NET agree with you about Whitner, then you gotta understand how it is viewed through red and gold lenses.

The replacement of Whitner with Bethea is not at all comparable to the Smith-Kaepernick debate. Kaepernick is a superior athlete and a younger prospect who was developed by the 49ers and proved his worth on the field before Smith was traded away.

In stark contrast to that situation, Bethea is even older than Whitner, and he was only added as a free agent after they failed to re-sign Whitner. The fact is Bethea is a poor stop-gap solution, with fading athleticism, who was simply terrible in coverage last season: allowing an average of 14.5 average yards per completion and a 103.1 QB Rating on passes against him. PFF gave him a -4.9 grade in coverage. By comparison, Whitner had the fifth-highest coverage grade of any player in the league: +10.7. That is a night and day comparison, which is not comparable to the close case between Smith and Kaepernick.

My opinion of Whitner did not change after he left the 49ers. I thought he was a great player in coverage last season and one of the most ferocious hitters in the league, and I continue to feel that way. I'm also willing to admit the 49ers had the greatest LB corps in league history, and they will continue to be a great LB corps depending on the status of Aldon Smith (impending jail/suspension), Navorro Bowman (ACL/MCL surgery), and the soon-to-be-30-year-olds Ahmad Brooks and Patrick Willis.