Seahawks so ahead of the draft curve

[Attyla the Hawk]

It's been harder for players in the last few drafts to make an impact or even make the team on a stacked roster. This wasn't the case when Pete and John first showed up.

It takes 2 years now to get a bead on the draft pick now, a great example of that is Hill. There is so much depth that with a few exceptions, like Richardson, the first year is a redshirt year with limited play and a great chance the guy gets stashed on IR.

For most of the roster, this is a college program. Redshirt, compete for a spot the 2nd year, and the last two years cement your value or move on to another team. It took 4 years to get there, but those picks that move on become compensatory picks. This is the cycle of value they envisioned all along.

The other thing to like is that while we do need to find some starters this year, we don't need them at those super difficult to find outlier talent positions. OL, interior DL, LB...those guys can be found and trained a lot easier than some other positions.

Moving forward, the patience Pete has for developing players is going to be the divider between him and all the copycats arising in the NFL right now. Drafting rangy sparQ players is no longer Pete's secret. But skill of training them up will continue to be Pete's edge.

I agree on these points. But let's not kid ourselves. If we had guys the quality of Chancellor, Sherman or Wright or Maxwell or Sweezy from the last two drafts -- we'd know that like we did before those players were full time starters.

Hill definitely could be that kind of player. I actually see him as having taken that next step and is that kind of player in my estimation. Britt is also that kind of player to me. Richardson was on his way to becoming equal to Baldwin in terms of impact as a quality WR. I thought Willson could also be that guy (and could still easily improve). I also concede how many of our players are still in the league.

But it's like many are hanging by a thread. And if these guys were of that kind of caliber, then it should follow that we should have ridiculous depth. Yet the narrative all offseason has been that we need depth and the lack of it was a prime reason we lost the Super Bowl. And I think even in last year's preseason -- it was evident that our depth had taken a step back from the '12/'13 teams. I do believe that's a function of having a largely whiffed draft class in '13.

I still harbor hope that these guys from '13/'14 develop into solid players. KPL, Marsh, Hill, Norwood and Simon could still be quality guys. I don't think it's a stretch though, that the quality of players in the 4th/5th round ranges aren't the quality of guys we selected in '10/'11/'12. Those caliber of players didn't start right away either, but their quality was pretty evident early on even as special teams/part time contributors. Opportunity (or lack of it) didn't appear to factor into the ability to forecast future greatness with those late round gems.

I do still think we need to start drafting the next core. Which is different from the develop/churn for comp pick type players. These are the guys that will have to replace quality vets currently under 2nd deals. The next Sherman/Chancellor/Wagner/Wright/Sweezy. We'll have to figure we can probably consider 3 of our guys for 3rd deals. Thomas and Sherman likely are two of them. Our current core players are all entering their second contract stage. It's unlikely this model will allow for us having to extend most of them a third contract. We want to keep the roster young. To do that, you need to begin to reload with players worthy of getting their second contracts at about the time the current core's second deals begin to expire.

This is a different case from the Maxwell/Carpenter/Okung type of draft/comp pick treadmill. I mentioned the Patriots, because they really had a similar situation in the late '00s with their roster. They traded away/lost second contract players and failed to replace them with new core talent. And their effective ability to compete for championships suffered for a time. But recently, they've begun to add their next core pieces to their roster of the last couple years. And that's bolstered their ability to compete. Their roster's life cycle is eerily predictive of ours.

The '14/'15 and '16 drafts are the ones to make that happen. If '15's class looks a lot like '14's class -- that really puts Seattle in a bind. Because we'll not be able to support a poor incoming class with veteran free agent talent to bridge the gaps. The cap situation won't allow for it. A three year stretch of drafts absent any next core level talents is going to quickly erode our championship opportunities in the medium term.

 

[McGruff]

I see at least 6 starters coming from the last two drafts.

Sweezt, Britt, Richardson, KPL, Hill and Marsh. Add in Simon, Willson and possibly Gilliam as well.

 

[penihawk]

Lets also be realistic with expectations of the draft. It's a 50/50 proposition and the odds for draftpicks to develop on a 2 time SB roster in this CBA of no "real practice" is that much tougher. I think we got a bit spoiled with our once in a lifetime core group from 10-12.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

It's been harder for players in the last few drafts to make an impact or even make the team on a stacked roster. This wasn't the case when Pete and John first showed up.

It takes 2 years now to get a bead on the draft pick now, a great example of that is Hill. There is so much depth that with a few exceptions, like Richardson, the first year is a redshirt year with limited play and a great chance the guy gets stashed on IR.

For most of the roster, this is a college program. Redshirt, compete for a spot the 2nd year, and the last two years cement your value or move on to another team. It took 4 years to get there, but those picks that move on become compensatory picks. This is the cycle of value they envisioned all along.

The other thing to like is that while we do need to find some starters this year, we don't need them at those super difficult to find outlier talent positions. OL, interior DL, LB...those guys can be found and trained a lot easier than some other positions.

Moving forward, the patience Pete has for developing players is going to be the divider between him and all the copycats arising in the NFL right now. Drafting rangy sparQ players is no longer Pete's secret. But skill of training them up will continue to be Pete's edge.

You're right--the comp picks are part of the fuel of the machine, and Schnieder plans to get them every year in perpetuity. Great post.