Serious Question

[original poster]

All it will take to flush your brilliant idea down the toilet is injuries and turnovers.
Once you cannot pass like planned then the losses will pile up.
The defense can't save you as you really don't seem to care about that end.
No matter the cap hits probaly took care of that anyway.
25-35 million @QB..That is before you pay for the good OL/WR you need.

Yep, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

 

[Vesuve]

Why not abandon the Run? for all games and just focus on passing. Even when teams are down 14+ Points they don't run the ball.

There needs to be a run-pass ratio, period.

HCs and OCs ask for the stats on pass : run ratios occasionally during a game to make sure the O is not getting too predictable.

 

[Sox-n-Hawks]

All it will take to flush your brilliant idea down the toilet is injuries and turnovers.
Once you cannot pass like planned then the losses will pile up.
The defense can't save you as you really don't seem to care about that end.
No matter the cap hits probaly took care of that anyway.
25-35 million @QB..That is before you pay for the good OL/WR you need.

Yep, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.

 

[JGreen79]

I thought we DID abandon the Run this year?

314 attempts not including Wilson's rushes vs 555 passing attempts.

Which would be last place I believe. The Miami Dolphins had the lowest number of rushing attempts as a team at 360. 334 for non QB attempts.

 

[original poster]

I thought we DID abandon the Run this year?

314 attempts not including Wilson's rushes vs 555 passing attempts.

Which would be last place I believe. The Miami Dolphins had the lowest number of rushing attempts as a team at 360. 334 for non QB attempts.

Short of looking at each individual team and removing QB rushes I'm struggling to confirm this but certainly sounds like it's the case.

 

[original poster]

If totally abandoning the run was a good idea and passing 100% of the time is the solution to failing teams problems, why don’t they do it?

With just how deep teams go into analysis and research, do you not think they’d have figured it out by now?

No team has the balls to do things at the min or max limits nor are there enough games in a season to robustly test ideas out.

As much as we like to imagine coaches are imbued with an almost predatory instinct towards solving the game of football, nothing could be further from the truth. Football coaches absolutely don't play the percentages as a whole, don't recursively evaluate their decisions and in fact let their emotions get the best of them at integral inflection points.

The myth that football coaches as a whole are extraordinary game players needs to die - they aren't and the constant gap between optimal play by statistical observation and NFL coaching decisions is profound. You might find individual cases where the coach beats alpha (that being league average results over tenure) but most of the people coaching in the NFL got there by connection, putting up with bullshit that most of us wouldn't, investing in a career that has narrow and specific opportunities, honing their craft with technique as position coaches before getting coordinator opportunities, managing the logistics of team coordination and congruency and many things that have nothing to do with simply being better at making better choices at the right moment.

I have more faith in chess players figuring out football than football coaches figuring out chess, if that makes sense. The 2nd line of yours makes it seem like the NFL is currently operating at perfect football coaching efficiency rather than operating at an acceptable entertaining equilibrium. If football has been figured out so thoroughly by the myriad coaches in the NFL, or if team outcomes are trivially impacted by coaching aptitude when it comes to strategic and tactical choices, then what explains the various levels of team outcomes from coach to coach - team talent alone?

That invokes a weird possibility - Bevell was actually infallible.

This is relevant

[tweet]https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/961619883355267074[/tweet]

 

[mrt144]

If totally abandoning the run was a good idea and passing 100% of the time is the solution to failing teams problems, why don’t they do it?

With just how deep teams go into analysis and research, do you not think they’d have figured it out by now?

No team has the balls to do things at the min or max limits nor are there enough games in a season to robustly test ideas out.

As much as we like to imagine coaches are imbued with an almost predatory instinct towards solving the game of football, nothing could be further from the truth. Football coaches absolutely don't play the percentages as a whole, don't recursively evaluate their decisions and in fact let their emotions get the best of them at integral inflection points.

The myth that football coaches as a whole are extraordinary game players needs to die - they aren't and the constant gap between optimal play by statistical observation and NFL coaching decisions is profound. You might find individual cases where the coach beats alpha (that being league average results over tenure) but most of the people coaching in the NFL got there by connection, putting up with bullshit that most of us wouldn't, investing in a career that has narrow and specific opportunities, honing their craft with technique as position coaches before getting coordinator opportunities, managing the logistics of team coordination and congruency and many things that have nothing to do with simply being better at making better choices at the right moment.

I have more faith in chess players figuring out football than football coaches figuring out chess, if that makes sense. The 2nd line of yours makes it seem like the NFL is currently operating at perfect football coaching efficiency rather than operating at an acceptable entertaining equilibrium. If football has been figured out so thoroughly by the myriad coaches in the NFL, or if team outcomes are trivially impacted by coaching aptitude when it comes to strategic and tactical choices, then what explains the various levels of team outcomes from coach to coach - team talent alone?

That invokes a weird possibility - Bevell was actually infallible.

This is relevant

[tweet]https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/961619883355267074[/tweet]

Have to give it a listen for sure. Football Outsiders is very happy with the Eagles since one of their alumni got scooped up by the Eagles to do analytics under Pederson.

And this just a minute ago https://twitter.com/FO_ScottKacsmar/sta ... 0049483776

 

[poly1274]

So you go Bandit plus and flood the passing lanes and rush three from different spots all the time, there goes your passing game and it becomes a interception fest.

If they try to stop the passing game by rushing 3, I would have RW scramble to get 7-8 yards per carry. by running straight to the middle and slide.

One problem, Russell isn't going to out run CB's and Safeties faster then he is especially coming at him and slide, that will work sometimes but knowing that's what he will do they will close and all it takes is one combo hit or needing to get a first down and take a full hit and he will be in IR by the third game.

So what you're saying is potentially having multiple QBs involved. Holy crap, we're making full contact basketball.

Who said anything of having multiple QB's involved?

I only said this if they rush with 3 DL men and try to cover all WR's passes, RW can just easily scramble and gain 5-7 yards per carry without being touched. I'm not saying he is gonna out run CB and safeties but like sometimes Brady runs up the middle for a 10-12 yard gain.


Also when we play empty backfield formation, does that mean it's easy for the opposing team to cover this?

 

[mrt144]

If they try to stop the passing game by rushing 3, I would have RW scramble to get 7-8 yards per carry. by running straight to the middle and slide.

One problem, Russell isn't going to out run CB's and Safeties faster then he is especially coming at him and slide, that will work sometimes but knowing that's what he will do they will close and all it takes is one combo hit or needing to get a first down and take a full hit and he will be in IR by the third game.

So what you're saying is potentially having multiple QBs involved. Holy crap, we're making full contact basketball.

Who said anything of having multiple QB's involved?

I only said this if they rush with 3 DL men and try to cover all WR's passes, RW can just easily scramble and gain 5-7 yards per carry without being touched. I'm not saying he is gonna out run CB and safeties but like sometimes Brady runs up the middle for a 10-12 yard gain.


Also when we play empty backfield formation, does that mean it's easy for the opposing team to cover this?

Check the quote tree.

 

[adeltaY]

Passing is by far more efficient than running. You also don't need a good run game to execute play action passes, this has been shown to be statistically false. You just need an RB lined up in the backfield. The Texans game was a good example of that. We had 5 RB rushing yards and were destroying them with PA passes.

That being said, I agree with the point about diminishing returns. Maybe Brady could run this kind of system with no dropoff, maybe Rodgers, but the former's arm would be shot come playoffs given his age and even the latter struggled from mid-2015 to mid-2016 trying to carry that offense. I don't think Russ can do it, especially behind a craptastic OL with poor play design. I think we definitely need a good running game to help drain the clock. Throw to get the lead and run to keep it, but only if you can run effectively.

 

[JGreen79]

Short of looking at each individual team and removing QB rushes I'm struggling to confirm this but certainly sounds like it's the case.

At first I was going to go through multiple teams, however decided that the 26 non-qb attempts was probably low enough. Don't have the number right now but even the Panthers minus Cam's numbers had a lot more rushes.

 

[IBleedBlueAndGreen]

Why not abandon the Run? for all games and just focus on passing. Even when teams are down 14+ Points they don't run the ball.

All eight division winners were in the top 10 in rushing in the NFL this year. All 12 playoff teams were in the top 16. Seems important.

 

[hawknation2018]

We did abandon the run under Bevell (20th in rushing attempts the last two seasons in a league that doesn't run the ball very much anymore). How did that work out?

 

[mrt144]

We did abandon the run under Bevell (20th in rushing attempts the last two seasons in a league that doesn't run the ball very much anymore). How did that work out?

There's a categorical difference between abandoning the run because it sucks and abandoning it as a predetermined strategic imperative. In the latter, you don't even waste practice time on it and would hopefully develop a passing attack that fully understands running is not an option.

 

[Beren]

I have a daft question to derail this thread (sorry OP): what would it take for us to trade up for the number one pick and Saquon Barkley? :lol:

 

[Seymour]

I have a daft question to derail this thread (sorry OP): what would it take for us to trade up for the number one pick and Saquon Barkley? :lol:

Oh, not much. Probably just something like Russell Wilson and our 1st.

 

[JimmyG]

Having an effective run game is vital to success in the NFL.
It helps you control the clock, establish a good TOP, keeps their defense off balance with the threat of play action, and keeps your defense fresh.
The Seahawks have only been successful in franchise history with an elite running back. Warner, Alexander and Lynch have all been key to a winning season. We need to establish a solid, successful running attack.

Agree with all of these, great point. Running plays always eat up clock. 30-40% of passing plays are going to result in incompletions, which stop the clock. You're not going to win the TOP if you abandon the run.

 

[mrt144]

Having an effective run game is vital to success in the NFL.
It helps you control the clock, establish a good TOP, keeps their defense off balance with the threat of play action, and keeps your defense fresh.
The Seahawks have only been successful in franchise history with an elite running back. Warner, Alexander and Lynch have all been key to a winning season. We need to establish a solid, successful running attack.

Agree with all of these, great point. Running plays always eat up clock. 30-40% of passing plays are going to result in incompletions, which stop the clock. You're not going to win the TOP if you abandon the run.

You'd need to not only throw 70 times per game, you'd need about an 80% completion rate to keep the clock rolling - 12 incomplete passes out of 70. That's a tall task.

 

[IndyHawk]

Having an effective run game is vital to success in the NFL.
It helps you control the clock, establish a good TOP, keeps their defense off balance with the threat of play action, and keeps your defense fresh.
The Seahawks have only been successful in franchise history with an elite running back. Warner, Alexander and Lynch have all been key to a winning season. We need to establish a solid, successful running attack.

Agree with all of these, great point. Running plays always eat up clock. 30-40% of passing plays are going to result in incompletions, which stop the clock. You're not going to win the TOP if you abandon the run.

You'd need to not only throw 70 times per game, you'd need about an 80% completion rate to keep the clock rolling - 12 incomplete passes out of 70. That's a tall task.

That is another key factor in this pass only dream-TOP
The Colts with Peyton in his prime struggled,got beat by teams that could run
and play defense.
Why?The clock ran down so much that it forced the Colts to pass more than planned
and be predictable because they were not running wnen trying to catch up.
You keep a passing team off the field long enough..You will win

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Ask the Falcons.