Some passing stats (Graham related)

[Hawks46]

I found this blurb on a Fieldgulls article talking about how good Wilson has been lately. It's pretty amazing, because the first 6 or so games of the year, our passing offense was near the bottom of the league.

"While we're on the subject, I want to look at Wilson's passer ratings by receiver this season. I've set the threshold at 30 targets to qualify:
Baldwin - 150.4(!)
Graham - 112.7
Lockett - 137.1
Kearse - 125.9
Those are not game-manager numbers, those are world-ender numbers.

In breaking this down, Wilson was going to Kearse and Baldwin to start the year; his security blankets when things were breaking down. It was well publicized that Graham wasn't getting targeted the first few games. Then we have a transition to working targets to Graham, while maintaining a rhythm with Baldwin. Lockett's targets have come on lately, at the expense of Kearse's.

First off, this looks pretty good. Wilson is comfortable with his starting guys and seems pretty efficient throwing to any of them.

People have been claiming that we were "forcing" targets to Graham and "lo and behold" the offense looks so much better now that he's out. Graham was getting targeted an average of 7 times a game and catching an average of 5 balls a game. This is neither forcing too many reps to one player (7 out of 28 average per game isn't excessive), or being inefficient when doing so, as a 112.7 QB rating will attest to.

On a macro level, this looks like Wilson is still good at throwing the football. The problems have been him not having time to throw, not having a balanced offense, and missing open guys. So we're seeing the efficiency being more EFFECTIVE. A good example would be a team like Pittsburgh, who is 2nd in the league in total offense yet they only score 1 more point per game than we do, while gaining more than 40 yards per game more than us. Conversely, Arizona only gains 10 yards/game more than the Stealers, yet score 6 points/game more.

I also think Graham will be fine if he comes back full strength next year. It's not unusual for players on offense to take time to get used to each other. I just hope he comes back full strength. I think we could be truly scary.

 

[akscoundrel]

What's with this perpetuation that graham wasn't getting targeted in the first weeks?

He had more reception thru his first 3 games than his last 3. I will agree that our offense does look better when its not being forced to one guy (besides lynch), but that's something that we can figure out with graham, while continuing to have him.

Graham was solid for us all year, in his first year of a new system and philosophy. I think he will recover fine, and continue to be a mismatch against linebackers and safeties.

 

[cHawkPhan]

I wish I could find the article from earlier in the season, said that when JG was on the field, we passed like 75% of the time, when he wasn't we ran like 80% of the time. He's a lousy blocker who made us more predictable and he did not do enough, for me, to earn that big pay check. I say cut ties and let the team continue it's successful way of developing their own talent. Leave the free agents alone. Williams already gone, add Graham to the list of receivers we've wasted money on.

 

[Laloosh]

Quarterbacks (all time) that have had a 130+ passer rating in three or more games consecutively...


Criteria used: 15 passes per game, 03 games in a row

[edit] Sorry this wasn't Graham specific. Just figured with it being a passing stat, could avoid a new thread.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Also worth mentioning that Graham accounted for the same general percentage of his QB's passing yards and completions in Seattle (low 20%s or something) than he did in New Orleans.

Also worth mentioning that Wilson's "activation" happened 2.5 games before Graham's injury, and included a lot of Graham in it. Like the two 3rd-and-10+ completions or the long juggling bomb against Pittsburgh.

Mike Sando was the one to float the idea that not having to feed Graham the ball helped our passing game. With all respect to Sando, I don't think the facts support it. Wilson's "activation" came from Pete and Bevell swallowing their pride and adjusting the offense, along with Rawls and Lewis making a difference. And if "forcing the ball" to Graham means being able to get out of 3rd-and-12 with regularity, well, that's exactly what you spend a first-round pick for. Wire Graham's jaws open and force the football down. With hydraulics.

 

[Ozzy]

I liked what I started to see from Graham. He made strides blocking and started to click with Wilson especially on crucial third downs. Seems like people are a little down on him because the offense looked great the first game we didn't have him. Still think our offense is even better with him. Time will tell I guess. Hope the guy gets healthy.

 

[StoneCold]

Also worth mentioning that Graham accounted for the same general percentage of his QB's passing yards and completions in Seattle (low 20%s or something) than he did in New Orleans.

Also worth mentioning that Wilson's "activation" happened 2.5 games before Graham's injury, and included a lot of Graham in it. Like the two 3rd-and-10+ completions or the long juggling bomb against Pittsburgh.

Mike Sando was the one to float the idea that not having to feed Graham the ball helped our passing game. With all respect to Sando, I don't think the facts support it. Wilson's "activation" came from Pete and Bevell swallowing their pride and adjusting the offense, along with Rawls and Lewis making a difference. And if "forcing the ball" to Graham means being able to get out of 3rd-and-12 with regularity, well, that's exactly what you spend a first-round pick for. Wire Graham's jaws open and force the football down. With hydraulics.

I like your term "activation". It goes with the Russell is a robot theme. Scottemojo made an interesting comment that the offensive changes, doing more spread, came out of the introspection during the bye. That the entire Cards game was using the changes, but the stupid penalties in the first half made it hard to see the difference. Second half it started to come on and has rolled ever since. I'm starting to buy into the theory that the big difference is the change is play calls and are supported by somewhat better line play.

I will try to watch the last game again and see if I can tell when they in spread and when they not and how it works. Probably won't notice much as I'm not that smart.

 

[sutz]

Stats are nice, but I fall back on the "eye test" here. IMNSHO, Graham was NOT being forced anything at the expense of other players. I did not see any of the kind of BS we saw last year when we were trying to get Harvin touches. And, Graham was much more adept at actually making his targets pay off. He had a couple/few drops, sure, but most receivers do. All in all, I saw that he had great hands.

When it comes to adding a high value FA, we did it right with Graham, not so much with Harvin. So I would hardly say our offense exploded because Graham went down. That's just silly. It may have come around when he went down, but I would love to see him out there right now, and I really hope they keep him for next year, contingent on his recovery, of course.

 

[Laloosh]

^^ I somewhat agree with the not forcing it thing. I think they were just trying to get the two of them on the same page (and figure out how they'll work best together).

 

[Smellyman]

Quarterbacks (all time) that have had a 130+ passer rating in three or more games consecutively...


Criteria used: 15 passes per game, 03 games in a row

[edit] Sorry this wasn't Graham specific. Just figured with it being a passing stat, could avoid a new thread.

RW did it twice? I thought what he is doing now he never did before.

I thought he finally figured it out and his first 3 years being perhaps the best in history was an aberration.

 

[Laloosh]

Quarterbacks (all time) that have had a 130+ passer rating in three or more games consecutively...


Criteria used: 15 passes per game, 03 games in a row

[edit] Sorry this wasn't Graham specific. Just figured with it being a passing stat, could avoid a new thread.

RW did it twice? I thought what he is doing now he never did before.

I thought he finally figured it out and his first 3 years being perhaps the best in history was an aberration.

Mmhmm...

 

[StoneCold]

Quarterbacks (all time) that have had a 130+ passer rating in three or more games consecutively...


Criteria used: 15 passes per game, 03 games in a row

[edit] Sorry this wasn't Graham specific. Just figured with it being a passing stat, could avoid a new thread.

RW did it twice? I thought what he is doing now he never did before.

I thought he finally figured it out and his first 3 years being perhaps the best in history was an aberration.

Mmhmm...

A clear violation of logic using stats and facts has no place on .fret.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Also worth mentioning that Graham accounted for the same general percentage of his QB's passing yards and completions in Seattle (low 20%s or something) than he did in New Orleans.

Also worth mentioning that Wilson's "activation" happened 2.5 games before Graham's injury, and included a lot of Graham in it. Like the two 3rd-and-10+ completions or the long juggling bomb against Pittsburgh.

Mike Sando was the one to float the idea that not having to feed Graham the ball helped our passing game. With all respect to Sando, I don't think the facts support it. Wilson's "activation" came from Pete and Bevell swallowing their pride and adjusting the offense, along with Rawls and Lewis making a difference. And if "forcing the ball" to Graham means being able to get out of 3rd-and-12 with regularity, well, that's exactly what you spend a first-round pick for. Wire Graham's jaws open and force the football down. With hydraulics.

^^ This. All of this. Every. Last. Bit.


I don't see it as unreasonable to expect that integrating Graham into the offense should have taken some time. I expected it. Wilson, if you look at when he started putting this run together, was doing so with a well integrated Graham. He was having a major impact, and in particular he was delivering with third down conversions which had been our Achilles' Heel for last year and the first part of this year.

Russell's play coincided with a combination of a switch to a quicker passing attack (adaptation of scheme), the offensive line beginning to improve around mid October, and Wilson beginning to settle and trust his pocket. I'm not sure anyone can definitively make a case for any one of these causing the others. But what has been clear, is that the timing of our plays has been outstanding. And it's probably very likely that all three conspired to produce these better results. It feels like this improvement was by design and predictive of future success.

Graham will thrive in this offense as is. I can't wait to see him back next season. This offense taking off is a product of other improvements. I would expect Graham to produce more similarly to the 1000 yd/8 TD range given how this offense is humming right now. We are attacking the middle of the field reliably and that's where Graham does his best work.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

Quarterbacks (all time) that have had a 130+ passer rating in three or more games consecutively...


Criteria used: 15 passes per game, 03 games in a row

[edit] Sorry this wasn't Graham specific. Just figured with it being a passing stat, could avoid a new thread.

So wait, if he surpasses 130 passer rating this next week, he'll be the only one ever to do that four games in a row? Sweet!

 

[Laloosh]

Quarterbacks (all time) that have had a 130+ passer rating in three or more games consecutively...


Criteria used: 15 passes per game, 03 games in a row

[edit] Sorry this wasn't Graham specific. Just figured with it being a passing stat, could avoid a new thread.

So wait, if he surpasses 130 passer rating this next week, he'll be the only one ever to do that four games in a row? Sweet!

Given the criteria provided, yes. Not sure if anyone's gone 2/2 for 4 straight games before but you get the picture

 

[theincrediblesok]

I want Russell to do it 5 straight games over 130 rating, so that way no one else could ever touch that record, would be nice