This game really worries me.

[Hasselbeck]

We're going to smother these guys.

Not worried at all. Prime time game, with this defense, with the opportunity to win the division and make the playoffs come through Seattle again?

This is right in our wheelhouse .. I don't think Arizona has a chance.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

On the flip side, what if WE get a pick? What if WE get a big ST return? We have just as much a chance to do that as they do. Our defense is better than theirs is. They have a better overall pass rush, but we have a better secondary. Our offense is better than theirs is. We have a VASTLY superior QB, and a much superior RB. Why should we assume the best of their D and the worst of our O? Given how we've been playing recently, why not the other way around?

You're right, but this is the NFL..........and the Rams game earlier this year proves that any stupid thing can happen in a defensive struggle type game against an inferior opponent. That's all some people are trying to say.

I'm confident that we win. The only possible way we lose is if our special teams screws up, I just don't see any other scenario playing out where if we play D and play just average on offense and special teams we lose.

 

[MidwestHawker]

You're right, but this is the NFL..........and the Rams game earlier this year proves that any stupid thing can happen in a defensive struggle type game against an inferior opponent. That's all some people are trying to say.

Well we have one poster who likened this game to a 50/50 coin flip, and another who said that we only win if OUR defense or special teams scores, so not exactly.

I'm sure that most of us agree that goofy stuff can happen to cause a big upset.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Their D is good, almost as good as ours. One long pass to Floyd in last year's home game, and that was it.

The same "could" happen again.

But... nah!

 

[Chawks1]

They beat a healthy Seahawks team at Clink last year with FOUR turnovers. If you're not at least a little worried. Well then you're just an overly confident fan.

^^^ Yes, this. In this game we were the team held to under 200 yards offense, 10 points, AND we had 4 turnovers and still lost. AT HOME. We were just as confident last year we would beat them and get HFA.

They have better WR's than us but their QB situation really hamstrings them. Now again, we should be able to stop them. But IMO we will need to score points on D and ST as I think the Cards can shut us down too. Sweeping a divisional team on the road is very tough in the NFL. Don't discount that.

HFA stats to consider about AZ....they are 13-2 at home since Ariens took over, we are 2-5 all time at UofP, and AZ leads the league in false starts at UofP since it opened.

 

[theincrediblesok]

We haven't scored a defensive TD in awhile, this is the game I think we do get one. Primetime game means no worry for the Seahawks, so I'm not worried at all. For the last 4 games I've seen people worrying about each game and why that other team will win, and look at where we are. The only team I'm a lil worry about is the Rams with their trick plays and that's about it. 12-4 we win the division and hopefully if everything aligns we will get the #1 Seed.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Sweeping a divisional team on the road is very tough in the NFL.

Now we look at all 1543 such series and use a calculation like the above to estimate how many sweeps we'd expect to see in total. Answer: if the games are independent, and if my formula for estimating probabilities is OK, we should have expected 911 sweeps in those 1543 series. What we actually saw was 902 sweeps, which is extremely close to the expected value.

^ this from this link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=890

Sweeps happen roughly as often as they are statistically expected to. There is nothing magical about the fact that you're playing a team from your own division. And in calculating statistics of a sweep, they are no different than just winning this game, because we can now apply a probability of 100% to us completing the first game of the sweep.

What we have here is a game where we are favored by 8, and thus roughly an 80/20 proposition. That's the level of toughness that we're looking at.

 

[BlueBlood]

In no way should we lose this game. I dont think they score at all.

Ive pretty much had this season pegged from week 1. Toot.

 

[volsunghawk]

They beat a healthy Seahawks team at Clink last year with FOUR turnovers. If you're not at least a little worried. Well then you're just an overly confident fan.

^^^ Yes, this. In this game we were the team held to under 200 yards offense, 10 points, AND we had 4 turnovers and still lost. AT HOME. We were just as confident last year we would beat them and get HFA.

They have better WR's than us but their QB situation really hamstrings them. Now again, we should be able to stop them. But IMO we will need to score points on D and ST as I think the Cards can shut us down too. Sweeping a divisional team on the road is very tough in the NFL. Don't discount that.

HFA stats to consider about AZ....they are 13-2 at home since Ariens took over, we are 2-5 all time at UofP, and AZ leads the league in false starts at UofP since it opened.

And then this year, we improved our point differential against the Cards in Seattle by 23 points. 7 point loss last year, 16 point win this year. So by that measure, we should win in Arizona by 35.

As for sweeping a divisional foe, yeah, that's not an easy thing to do. But it's something we've done every season Carroll has been here except 2012. And we have only been swept once by a division rival in those 5 seasons (49ers in 2011). Meanwhile, the Cards have been swept 5 times in that timeframe, while sweeping opponents only twice (Rams both times).

 

[hawkfan68]

When Lindley played the Seahawks in 2012, this happened -
http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=321209026

It was a 58-0 bashing. The chances of getting 58-0 score again might be slim but chance of the Seahawks winning the game look pretty good to me.

 

[SeahawkNAtl]

No one ever talks about what happened the last time that we visited Arizona! It wasnt even a game! I'm just saying! Dang!

 

[Boycie]

They beat a healthy Seahawks team at Clink last year with FOUR turnovers. If you're not at least a little worried. Well then you're just an overly confident fan.

Call me over confident if you like, but in a quarterback driven league, I will take Russel Wilson over whoever the Cards are trotting out on Sunday. They have a great D, and so do we, so those will cancel each other out. Our offense is better than theirs, so in my opinion, we win. End of story! DING....Next please!

 

[volsunghawk]

No one ever talks about what happened the last time that we visited Arizona! It wasnt even a game! I'm just saying! Dang!

Exactly. Since Arians took over, we've faced the Cards three times. Two of those times (once at home, once on the road), we have won by nearly 2 TDs. The third time was a weird game that involved the losing team having a +2 turnover differential, the Hawks throwing the ball nearly 60% of the time and losing the TOP battle badly, a bizarre INT on a bounce, and the Cards controlling the clock. If you had to point to one of these games as an unlikely-to-be-repeated outlier, it would be that one.

I'm not saying outlier games never happen. I'm not saying that the Cards are going to be easy to score on. What I am saying is that overall, the Cards have not been playing contender-level football for a while now. They have had remarkable luck this year, and that's supported by advanced metrics like DVOA. They've gotten good bounces, caught teams at the right time, and dodged bullets left and right. This Seahawks team, on the other hand, has not been in that same boat. Over the last 4 weeks, they've played conservatively and safely on offense while their defense has returned to the championship form they had last season. They are flat out playing better than Arizona is right now.

 

[Hawknballs]

Rimmer you're such a smeg head.

 

[Boycie]

Rimmer you're such a smeg head.

Sorry I couldn't hear you. I was cleaning out the chicken soup machine.

 

[sc85sis]

I understand the OP, I really do, but worrying about sacks, turnovers and Lynch being stopped completely ignores that in our last matchup, over 400 yards of offense and 6 scoring opportunities presented themselves to the Hawks.

Of course, in the opening minutes of the game I will be feeling exactly like the OP.

Yeah I get it.....that was at home though, loud crowd, turf field, held to mostly field goals and we gave up a ton of sacks. AZ HFA is equal to ours.....look at their record for the past few years. On the road we are average at best. We have a tendency to committ penalties at the worst time when we play on the road too. At home we are nearly unstoppable. Plus we all know how hard it is to sweep a division rival in a season. We split against them last year. We lost to an inferior Rams team on the road when we had a ton of offensive stats. I think it is naive to think we will win this easily. Again, our D and/or ST will have to score to win this IMO.

We aren't as bad on the road as you think.

2013 road record: 6-2
2014 road record: 4-3

We've won our last two road games versus San Fran and Philly. We are playing way better than we did earlier in the season when we lost on the road. Player health and team attitude are both better overall now, in spite of Okung and Unger being out.

I understand your concern, and I agree that we shouldn't assume this is an easy win. I do think we have a better chance of winning than losing, however.

 

[WilsonMVP]

Being a Phoenix resident, I have watched parts or all of every Cards game.

Yeah this is the NFL, and yeah stuff happens, but there is no way AZ should be 11-3.

They literally have won 5-6 games they had no business winning. Fluke calls/bounces/etc have quite literally off-set any bad luck they have had injury wise. They have caught EVERY BREAK possible in EVERY close game.

Because of their good defense, they are a team to be respected, especially at home, but the AZ team we are facing isnt as good as SF, much less us. 11-3 is a joke.

This...they have somehow managed to get to 11-3 in the most improbable of ways.

 

[EntiatHawk]

Divisional games are always tough.

I expect the first half to be pretty tight and a bit nerve wracking.

Then the second half will begin and we should pull away. Seems to be the MO of our team. The first half is all about setting up the second half.

I think we show up pretty well Sunday.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Divisional games are always tough.

No real difference between division and non-division games in terms of competitiveness: http://grantland.com/features/upon-init ... ew-week-3/

 

[Largent80]

Rimmer I'm kinda scared to ask how you got that name.