This Week's Enemy Fan Forums: The Green Bay Packers

[ptisme]

If Bulaga can't play this is going to be a VERY frustrating game for Packers fans to watch.... I will say though that the damage will be much more mitigated given:
1. The game is at home where the crowd won't be blasting on the offense like if it was in Seattle.
2. They've had a week to prepare

 

[Hawkscanner]

If Bulaga can't play this is going to be a VERY frustrating game for Packers fans to watch.... I will say though that the damage will be much more mitigated given:
1. The game is at home where the crowd won't be blasting on the offense like if it was in Seattle.
2. They've had a week to prepare

Very true -- it'll be interesting for me to see exactly what kind of effect all that's going to have. I'm also very interested to see exactly what the effect of Jahri Evans (instead of T.J. Lang) is going to have. Evans is a decent pass protector, but nowhere even close to the run blocker that Lang is. If the Packers end up not being able to effectively run the ball, I'm curious what effect that's going to have.


Again, Question for you (or for any Packers fan who's lurking out there) ...

We've been focusing a lot of our discussion on the Packers Offense vs. the Seahawks Defense. Let's flip to the other side of the ball. Can you guys tell me, what have been seeing from this Packers Defense? Give me your overall assessment. Love to hear a detailed breakdown of your guys' thoughts on this 2017 Packers Defense.

 

[PackerNation]

Just to enlighten you in case you hadn't heard about this, it was announced a week or so ago that K.J. Wright was going to be missing practice and out of town with what Pete Carroll mysteriously referred to as "a process" -- not a surgery, not a procedure, "a process". This had everybody scratching their head trying to figure out what the heck he was talking about. It finally came to light that he had gone for a Regenokine treatment. He returned with glowing results. Prior to the Week 4 Preseason Game, it was like a stampede, as 5 other veterans decided to miss the game and undergo the "process" as well.
http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=137959

Thanks for the insight, I had not heard that. Interesting, to say the least.

Question for you (or for any Packers fan who's lurking out there) ...

We've been focusing a lot of our discussion on the Packers Offense vs. the Seahawks Defense. Let's flip to the other side of the ball. Can you guys tell me, what have been seeing from this Packers Defense? Give me your overall assessment. Love to hear a detailed breakdown of your guys' thoughts on this 2017 Packers Defense.

I gave mine earlier in this thread. The Packers new "Nitro" defense is an unknown. We are lighter, faster and can cover sideline to sideline but a big back (Lacy, for instance) should be able to get yards through the middle.

Wilson is always a threat to run and he should keep the Packers defense off balance. For some reason though, our defense tends to get a lot of turnovers from Seattle. Expect Lacy to give us the ball twice. Early in the year, he tends to be a fumbler and our guys know him well.

Clark, Daniels and Lowry upfront are a nice combination and should do well this year. Especially Clark, he is coming along nicely.

Matthews and Perry are a great duo on the outside but both are nicked up already. If they stay healthy, they will be very good this year. I suspect they play well against Seattle on Sunday. Brooks rotating in will be nice. Hopefully he has some game left in him.

ILB's are Ryan and Matrinez. Both solid and have been improving each year. This could be a breakout year for them, especially given the improvements upfront. Still, neither are on the level of Wagner but also, better than "Just a guy" on defense. These guys are not terrible.

Secondary:

Randall - small, light, having issues on coverage. (RCB)
House - Steady and solid, not a game changer (LCB)
Burnett and Dix at Safety are very good and can cover the run very well.

King and Jones are rookies and I really like these guys. They will be starters real soon. They play big and have a ton of upside.

The real issue, IMO, is going to come down to how well the Packers can contain a heavy dose of running by stronger RB's and OL's. Not too worried about your OL (Not exactly on the level of the Dallas Cowboys), but Lacy can pack a wallop and he can shrink a defense down that opens up the edges and the passing game over the top. A speedster like Lockett, if he can get 1v1 coverage off of a play action could have a huge game.

If I were the 'hawks, I test the inside running game early and often and let my defense dictate field position. Look for the play action to take shots deep as the Packers Safety cheats up to stuff the run. Let Wilson roll out wide and break contain. Show "jet Sweep" often to keep the defense spread. Pick on Ryan in the middle and avoid Daniels.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[ptisme]

If Bulaga can't play this is going to be a VERY frustrating game for Packers fans to watch.... I will say though that the damage will be much more mitigated given:
1. The game is at home where the crowd won't be blasting on the offense like if it was in Seattle.
2. They've had a week to prepare

Very true -- it'll be interesting for me to see exactly what kind of effect all that's going to have. I'm also very interested to see exactly what the effect of Jahri Evans (instead of T.J. Lang) is going to have. Evans is a decent pass protector, but nowhere even close to the run blocker that Lang is. If the Packers end up not being able to effectively run the ball, I'm curious what effect that's going to have.


Again, Question for you (or for any Packers fan who's lurking out there) ...

We've been focusing a lot of our discussion on the Packers Offense vs. the Seahawks Defense. Let's flip to the other side of the ball. Can you guys tell me, what have been seeing from this Packers Defense? Give me your overall assessment. Love to hear a detailed breakdown of your guys' thoughts on this 2017 Packers Defense.

The Packers don't expect to run the ball on Seattle even if they still had Lang... I like the Patriots approach when they used to play Buffalo's defense: We know we can't run on you so we're going to put the ball in the hands of our quarterback.

GB's Defense:
1. Team speed is much improved. I don't see Wilson running all over the place on them like him and Kaep used to do a few years ago.
2. Run defense should be pretty stout.
3. Safety play will be elite.
4. In theory the CB's should be better with more talent there but they are young. However it couldn't be worse than last year.
5. the problem on defense is going to be pass rush....

 

[HawkerD]

Agree that the GB OL is the key to this game. Bulaga and Bakhtiari will absolutely shut down our edge rushers 99% of the time. They are phenomenal. Their guards, however, could be vulnerable. Depends how much Jahri Evans has in the tank and how much Lane Taylor has improved. Corey Linsley is pretty dang good, though. Also, Rodgers mitigates pressure with his pocket-ninja moves. If Richardson and Bennett can dial up some interior, pressure, it's going to be tough for him.

Also, our OL needs to not be garbage and Russ needs to not throw 4 or 5 picks. I'm guessing Dom Capers sacrificed his defense against Kaep so they could be good against Russ or partook in some other devilry...

This is all good insight. lane taylor is awesome. The question is Evans and how much he has left, as you said. I'm guessing they'll try to quickly get rid of the ball. On defense the packers drafted some cornerbacks with speed and skill the last two years. Unfortunately inexperience in the first game against guys like wilson and Baldwin could spell disaster.

Anyone know Bulaga's understudy?

From early reports it looks like he is still not practicing and is a big concern for Sunday. With the DL that Seattle boosts, this could make a big difference to the packages that the Packers O utilise.

We traded up last year to draft Jason Spriggs. He's been a disaster and is not someone who should even sniff the field against that defense on Sunday. Kyle Murphy (sixth rounder last year) would be a much better option but.... He's not Bulaga. They'd need to help him with the TE, which would really limit what we do on offense. If any of our starters are out it would limit what we could do and I don't believe our offense could keep up with the Seahawks offense at that point.

I actually feel for you guys regarding Spriggs. So difficult to draft College OL. Hawks have had issues in that area as well over the years. You wonder how talent evaluaters don't see it coming. They are like a girlfriend who thinks they can "fix" you but in the end they really can't.

 

[ptisme]

This is all good insight. lane taylor is awesome. The question is Evans and how much he has left, as you said. I'm guessing they'll try to quickly get rid of the ball. On defense the packers drafted some cornerbacks with speed and skill the last two years. Unfortunately inexperience in the first game against guys like wilson and Baldwin could spell disaster.

Anyone know Bulaga's understudy?

From early reports it looks like he is still not practicing and is a big concern for Sunday. With the DL that Seattle boosts, this could make a big difference to the packages that the Packers O utilise.

We traded up last year to draft Jason Spriggs. He's been a disaster and is not someone who should even sniff the field against that defense on Sunday. Kyle Murphy (sixth rounder last year) would be a much better option but.... He's not Bulaga. They'd need to help him with the TE, which would really limit what we do on offense. If any of our starters are out it would limit what we could do and I don't believe our offense could keep up with the Seahawks offense at that point.

I actually feel for you guys regarding Spriggs. So difficult to draft College OL. Hawks have had issues in that area as well over the years. You wonder how talent evaluaters don't see it coming. They are like a girlfriend who thinks they can "fix" you but in the end they really can't.

They're like pitchers: You bring in a ton of them and hope one or two gets it...

 

[Hawkscanner]

I actually feel for you guys regarding Spriggs. So difficult to draft College OL. Hawks have had issues in that area as well over the years. You wonder how talent evaluaters don't see it coming. They are like a girlfriend who thinks they can "fix" you but in the end they really can't.

They're like pitchers: You bring in a ton of them and hope one or two gets it...

Yup. It's kind of a running joke around here how Offensive Line Coach Tom Cable is always looking to convert defensive linemen into offensive linemen. He did it successfully with J.R. Sweezy ... not successfully with Kristjan Sokoli ... and now again they are going to try to go down that road once again with Isaiah Battle.

Cable has talked openly about this a few times in the past. His reasons (and why they are so picky when it comes to drafting offensive line) ... it's because the colleges (in general) are doing such a crappy job of preparing these offensive linemen for the NFL. They're coming into the NFL with poor technique, bad habits, with very little overall understanding of NFL blocking schemes ... AND (by in large) they're nowhere near as big and athletic as you'd like for the NFL game. So, rather than take a lesser skilled guy who has bad form, bad technique, bad habits, etc. --- a guy you're going to have to re-teach anyway -- why not take a more athletically talented guy and teach him how to be an NFL linemen? No bad habits and bad technique that you're going to have to have him UN-learn. He's certainly got a valid point. He's not wrong. Across the NFL, I think you're seeing the lack of really good NFL linemen very apparent.

 

[Hawkscanner]

The real issue, IMO, is going to come down to how well the Packers can contain a heavy dose of running by stronger RB's and OL's. Not too worried about your OL (Not exactly on the level of the Dallas Cowboys), but Lacy can pack a wallop and he can shrink a defense down that opens up the edges and the passing game over the top. A speedster like Lockett, if he can get 1v1 coverage off of a play action could have a huge game.

If I were the 'hawks, I test the inside running game early and often and let my defense dictate field position. Look for the play action to take shots deep as the Packers Safety cheats up to stuff the run. Let Wilson roll out wide and break contain. Show "jet Sweep" often to keep the defense spread. Pick on Ryan in the middle and avoid Daniels.

Just my 2 cents.

Thanks for that. Good stuff … and from watching Pete Carroll and this coaching staff over the past few years, I can say that’s undoubtedly exactly the approach that they are going to employ. It is NO secret that Carroll LOVES to run the football. He is first and foremost a guy who wants to establish the run -- pound a team into submission -- and then hit them with the deep shots downfield. Marshawn Lynch so typified exactly the kind of ball that Pete Carroll loves -- smash mouth football. That’s why they brought in an Eddie Lacy … and they have really physical runners in Thomas Rawls … and now Chris Carson.

Seattle had 136 yards on the ground in that Week 14 game against the Packers in Lambeau last year … and I don’t see the focus shifting away from that approach. They are going to look to run the ball … FIRST AND FOREMOST … and run it a lot (especially on the road in a hostile, tough to play in, environment like Lambeau). Outside of last season, Seattle has always been among the league leaders in rushing. I don’t expect that focus to change anytime soon. They will certainly test that inside running game early and often, I can virtually promise that.

Yes, I know that the Seahawks haven’t won in Green Bay since 1999 … BUT, I wonder if they just might have the team to do it this year. And I say that based upon a few things …

1] Seattle’s Running Game. As I’ve noted above, running the football is in the Hawks DNA … and they’ve historically done it very well. The offensive line is improved and it looks like Seattle’s overall running attack is improved as well. Seattle did fairly well last year running the ball, so I would say they’re going to go to that well in this game. Stress clock management. Keep Aaron Rodgers and that offense OFF the field.


2] Packers Pass Defense Issues?

It’s interesting, as I’ve been studying this matchup more and more, I’ve been trying to figure out this Packers Pass Defense. I’ve noticed that there were definitely a lot of issues last year ...

8.1 Yards/Pass Attempt Allowed (32nd overall)
QB Rating Against of 95.9 (26th overall)
64.8% Completion Against (25th overall)
32 Passing TD’s Allowed (Tied 29th overall)
58 plays of 20 yards+ Allowed (Tied 3rd Most)
Allowed 41.2% of 3rd Downs to be converted (24th overall)

The question I’ve been trying to answer … is WHY? Why such problems in pass coverage?

After all, the Packers defense had 40 sacks (tied for 6th best) … just behind Seattle (who had 42, tied for 3rd). So, it doesn’t seem to be a matter of generating pressure, though I wonder if a lot of those sacks were generated by blitzing … which might account for possible holes in coverage schemes if the Packers can’t generate consistent pressure without it.

It’s abundantly clear that there were issues last year though. Based upon what you guys are saying and what I’m hearing, I’m wondering if it might have had something to do with personnel. In the podcast that I cited above, Brian Nemhauser brought up some very interesting stats from Pro Football Focus ...

Packers Pass Coverage (According to Pro Football Focus) 2016
SS Morgan Burnett … +3.6
DB LaDarius Gunter … +1.3
DB Makinton Dorleant … +1.1
FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix … +0.2

ROLB Nick Perry … -1.1
DB Sam Shields … -2.2
DB Micah Hyde … -2.4
ILB Jake Ryan … -3.7
ILB Joe Thomas … -3.7
DB Demetri Goodson … -3.8
DB Quinten Rollins … -4.4
ILB Blake Martinez … -5.2
RCB Damarious Randall … -10.7

Check out the negative pass coverage scores there -- I’ve highlighted guys who are still on this Packers team. You can certainly see the weak spots and where they were last year (noted in red).

Now, that was last year. This year -- totally unknown at this point. It’ll be very interesting to see how the Packers new additions … and the new schemes they’ve implemented will affect things when it comes to coverage.

Still, many of those guys I highlighted above are still starters, so I suspect that there will in fact be holes. Can Russell Wilson and company find and exploit those? That remains to be seen.


3] Overall Improvement of Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson was pretty banged up and hobbled when the Seahawks met the Packers in Week 13 last year. It was very noticeable that he wasn’t moving around all that well. He wasn’t all that much of a running threat at that point of the season. This year, it’s clear that his wheels are back. He’s moving around really well, stepping up in the pocket, sliding around, making great throws on the fly. So far, Russell Wilson has looked SHARP. I concur with the NFL’s Elliot Harrison who said that Russell Wilson is looking like an early MVP Candidate. He most certainly has looked very good.

4] Improvements to the Seahawks Defense Already noted above with the additions that the Hawks have made along with the new schemes that they are implementing. Like the Packers Defense, the new schemes that the Hawks are implementing are a virtual unknown … but I have to figure that it’s all going to be about shutting down those running lanes … and putting sustained pressure on Rodgers. If that offensive line is at all compromised, it could be a very long day.

Honestly, to me the biggest key to this game is, “Can the Packers establish the run?” If they can … then it could be a long day for the Hawks. I just look at it from this standpoint though -- a Seahawks defense that was fairly banged up in Week 14 last year held the Packers to just 93 Yards Rushing in Lambeau. And now the Packers are minus T.J. Lang … and maybe minus Bulaga for this game as well … and they’re facing a defense that’s finally healthy again and looking more formidable than they’ve looked in years.

I DO personally think that the Seahawks have the team to go into Lambeau and pull off the upset. I’m predicting that’s going to happen. Will it? Who knows? I can’t wait for this weekend to find out.

 

[ptisme]

The real issue, IMO, is going to come down to how well the Packers can contain a heavy dose of running by stronger RB's and OL's. Not too worried about your OL (Not exactly on the level of the Dallas Cowboys), but Lacy can pack a wallop and he can shrink a defense down that opens up the edges and the passing game over the top. A speedster like Lockett, if he can get 1v1 coverage off of a play action could have a huge game.

If I were the 'hawks, I test the inside running game early and often and let my defense dictate field position. Look for the play action to take shots deep as the Packers Safety cheats up to stuff the run. Let Wilson roll out wide and break contain. Show "jet Sweep" often to keep the defense spread. Pick on Ryan in the middle and avoid Daniels.

Just my 2 cents.

Thanks for that. Good stuff … and from watching Pete Carroll and this coaching staff over the past few years, I can say that’s undoubtedly exactly the approach that they are going to employ. It is NO secret that Carroll LOVES to run the football. He is first and foremost a guy who wants to establish the run -- pound a team into submission -- and then hit them with the deep shots downfield. Marshawn Lynch so typified exactly the kind of ball that Pete Carroll loves -- smash mouth football. That’s why they brought in an Eddie Lacy … and they have really physical runners in Thomas Rawls … and now Chris Carson.

Seattle had 136 yards on the ground in that Week 14 game against the Packers in Lambeau last year … and I don’t see the focus shifting away from that approach. They are going to look to run the ball … FIRST AND FOREMOST … and run it a lot (especially on the road in a hostile, tough to play in, environment like Lambeau). Outside of last season, Seattle has always been among the league leaders in rushing. I don’t expect that focus to change anytime soon. They will certainly test that inside running game early and often, I can virtually promise that.

Yes, I know that the Seahawks haven’t won in Green Bay since 1999 … BUT, I wonder if they just might have the team to do it this year. And I say that based upon a few things …

1] Seattle’s Running Game. As I’ve noted above, running the football is in the Hawks DNA … and they’ve historically done it very well. The offensive line is improved and it looks like Seattle’s overall running attack is improved as well. Seattle did fairly well last year running the ball, so I would say they’re going to go to that well in this game. Stress clock management. Keep Aaron Rodgers and that offense OFF the field.


2] Packers Pass Defense Issues?

It’s interesting, as I’ve been studying this matchup more and more, I’ve been trying to figure out this Packers Pass Defense. I’ve noticed that there were definitely a lot of issues last year ...

8.1 Yards/Pass Attempt Allowed (32nd overall)
QB Rating Against of 95.9 (26th overall)
64.8% Completion Against (25th overall)
32 Passing TD’s Allowed (Tied 29th overall)
58 plays of 20 yards+ Allowed (Tied 3rd Most)
Allowed 41.2% of 3rd Downs to be converted (24th overall)

The question I’ve been trying to answer … is WHY? Why such problems in pass coverage?

After all, the Packers defense had 40 sacks (tied for 6th best) … just behind Seattle (who had 42, tied for 3rd). So, it doesn’t seem to be a matter of generating pressure, though I wonder if a lot of those sacks were generated by blitzing … which might account for possible holes in coverage schemes if the Packers can’t generate consistent pressure without it.

It’s abundantly clear that there were issues last year though. Based upon what you guys are saying and what I’m hearing, I’m wondering if it might have had something to do with personnel. In the podcast that I cited above, Brian Nemhauser brought up some very interesting stats from Pro Football Focus ...

Packers Pass Coverage (According to Pro Football Focus) 2016
SS Morgan Burnett … +3.6
DB LaDarius Gunter … +1.3
DB Makinton Dorleant … +1.1
FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix … +0.2

ROLB Nick Perry … -1.1
DB Sam Shields … -2.2
DB Micah Hyde … -2.4
ILB Jake Ryan … -3.7
ILB Joe Thomas … -3.7
DB Demetri Goodson … -3.8
DB Quinten Rollins … -4.4
ILB Blake Martinez … -5.2
RCB Damarious Randall … -10.7

Check out the negative pass coverage scores there -- I’ve highlighted guys who are still on this Packers team. You can certainly see the weak spots and where they were last year (noted in red).

Now, that was last year. This year -- totally unknown at this point. It’ll be very interesting to see how the Packers new additions … and the new schemes they’ve implemented will affect things when it comes to coverage.

Still, many of those guys I highlighted above are still starters, so I suspect that there will in fact be holes. Can Russell Wilson and company find and exploit those? That remains to be seen.


3] Overall Improvement of Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson was pretty banged up and hobbled when the Seahawks met the Packers in Week 13 last year. It was very noticeable that he wasn’t moving around all that well. He wasn’t all that much of a running threat at that point of the season. This year, it’s clear that his wheels are back. He’s moving around really well, stepping up in the pocket, sliding around, making great throws on the fly. So far, Russell Wilson has looked SHARP. I concur with the NFL’s Elliot Harrison who said that Russell Wilson is looking like an early MVP Candidate. He most certainly has looked very good.

4] Improvements to the Seahawks Defense Already noted above with the additions that the Hawks have made along with the new schemes that they are implementing. Like the Packers Defense, the new schemes that the Hawks are implementing are a virtual unknown … but I have to figure that it’s all going to be about shutting down those running lanes … and putting sustained pressure on Rodgers. If that offensive line is at all compromised, it could be a very long day.

Honestly, to me the biggest key to this game is, “Can the Packers establish the run?” If they can … then it could be a long day for the Hawks. I just look at it from this standpoint though -- a Seahawks defense that was fairly banged up in Week 14 last year held the Packers to just 93 Yards Rushing in Lambeau. And now the Packers are minus T.J. Lang … and maybe minus Bulaga for this game as well … and they’re facing a defense that’s finally healthy again and looking more formidable than they’ve looked in years.

I DO personally think that the Seahawks have the team to go into Lambeau and pull off the upset. I’m predicting that’s going to happen. Will it? Who knows? I can’t wait for this weekend to find out.

2. The secondary for GB was the walking wounded. They were forced to start two rookies suffering from groin injuries. I'm not going to tell you they will be great this year because they are an unknown. But nothing you know about last year with regard to our pass defense should be applied to this year.

 

[ptisme]

The real issue, IMO, is going to come down to how well the Packers can contain a heavy dose of running by stronger RB's and OL's. Not too worried about your OL (Not exactly on the level of the Dallas Cowboys), but Lacy can pack a wallop and he can shrink a defense down that opens up the edges and the passing game over the top. A speedster like Lockett, if he can get 1v1 coverage off of a play action could have a huge game.

If I were the 'hawks, I test the inside running game early and often and let my defense dictate field position. Look for the play action to take shots deep as the Packers Safety cheats up to stuff the run. Let Wilson roll out wide and break contain. Show "jet Sweep" often to keep the defense spread. Pick on Ryan in the middle and avoid Daniels.

Just my 2 cents.

Thanks for that. Good stuff … and from watching Pete Carroll and this coaching staff over the past few years, I can say that’s undoubtedly exactly the approach that they are going to employ. It is NO secret that Carroll LOVES to run the football. He is first and foremost a guy who wants to establish the run -- pound a team into submission -- and then hit them with the deep shots downfield. Marshawn Lynch so typified exactly the kind of ball that Pete Carroll loves -- smash mouth football. That’s why they brought in an Eddie Lacy … and they have really physical runners in Thomas Rawls … and now Chris Carson.

Seattle had 136 yards on the ground in that Week 14 game against the Packers in Lambeau last year … and I don’t see the focus shifting away from that approach. They are going to look to run the ball … FIRST AND FOREMOST … and run it a lot (especially on the road in a hostile, tough to play in, environment like Lambeau). Outside of last season, Seattle has always been among the league leaders in rushing. I don’t expect that focus to change anytime soon. They will certainly test that inside running game early and often, I can virtually promise that.

Yes, I know that the Seahawks haven’t won in Green Bay since 1999 … BUT, I wonder if they just might have the team to do it this year. And I say that based upon a few things …

1] Seattle’s Running Game. As I’ve noted above, running the football is in the Hawks DNA … and they’ve historically done it very well. The offensive line is improved and it looks like Seattle’s overall running attack is improved as well. Seattle did fairly well last year running the ball, so I would say they’re going to go to that well in this game. Stress clock management. Keep Aaron Rodgers and that offense OFF the field.


2] Packers Pass Defense Issues?

It’s interesting, as I’ve been studying this matchup more and more, I’ve been trying to figure out this Packers Pass Defense. I’ve noticed that there were definitely a lot of issues last year ...

8.1 Yards/Pass Attempt Allowed (32nd overall)
QB Rating Against of 95.9 (26th overall)
64.8% Completion Against (25th overall)
32 Passing TD’s Allowed (Tied 29th overall)
58 plays of 20 yards+ Allowed (Tied 3rd Most)
Allowed 41.2% of 3rd Downs to be converted (24th overall)

The question I’ve been trying to answer … is WHY? Why such problems in pass coverage?

After all, the Packers defense had 40 sacks (tied for 6th best) … just behind Seattle (who had 42, tied for 3rd). So, it doesn’t seem to be a matter of generating pressure, though I wonder if a lot of those sacks were generated by blitzing … which might account for possible holes in coverage schemes if the Packers can’t generate consistent pressure without it.

It’s abundantly clear that there were issues last year though. Based upon what you guys are saying and what I’m hearing, I’m wondering if it might have had something to do with personnel. In the podcast that I cited above, Brian Nemhauser brought up some very interesting stats from Pro Football Focus ...

Packers Pass Coverage (According to Pro Football Focus) 2016
SS Morgan Burnett … +3.6
DB LaDarius Gunter … +1.3
DB Makinton Dorleant … +1.1
FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix … +0.2

ROLB Nick Perry … -1.1
DB Sam Shields … -2.2
DB Micah Hyde … -2.4
ILB Jake Ryan … -3.7
ILB Joe Thomas … -3.7
DB Demetri Goodson … -3.8
DB Quinten Rollins … -4.4
ILB Blake Martinez … -5.2
RCB Damarious Randall … -10.7

Check out the negative pass coverage scores there -- I’ve highlighted guys who are still on this Packers team. You can certainly see the weak spots and where they were last year (noted in red).

Now, that was last year. This year -- totally unknown at this point. It’ll be very interesting to see how the Packers new additions … and the new schemes they’ve implemented will affect things when it comes to coverage.

Still, many of those guys I highlighted above are still starters, so I suspect that there will in fact be holes. Can Russell Wilson and company find and exploit those? That remains to be seen.


3] Overall Improvement of Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson was pretty banged up and hobbled when the Seahawks met the Packers in Week 13 last year. It was very noticeable that he wasn’t moving around all that well. He wasn’t all that much of a running threat at that point of the season. This year, it’s clear that his wheels are back. He’s moving around really well, stepping up in the pocket, sliding around, making great throws on the fly. So far, Russell Wilson has looked SHARP. I concur with the NFL’s Elliot Harrison who said that Russell Wilson is looking like an early MVP Candidate. He most certainly has looked very good.

4] Improvements to the Seahawks Defense Already noted above with the additions that the Hawks have made along with the new schemes that they are implementing. Like the Packers Defense, the new schemes that the Hawks are implementing are a virtual unknown … but I have to figure that it’s all going to be about shutting down those running lanes … and putting sustained pressure on Rodgers. If that offensive line is at all compromised, it could be a very long day.

Honestly, to me the biggest key to this game is, “Can the Packers establish the run?” If they can … then it could be a long day for the Hawks. I just look at it from this standpoint though -- a Seahawks defense that was fairly banged up in Week 14 last year held the Packers to just 93 Yards Rushing in Lambeau. And now the Packers are minus T.J. Lang … and maybe minus Bulaga for this game as well … and they’re facing a defense that’s finally healthy again and looking more formidable than they’ve looked in years.

I DO personally think that the Seahawks have the team to go into Lambeau and pull off the upset. I’m predicting that’s going to happen. Will it? Who knows? I can’t wait for this weekend to find out.

4. from afar: The greatness that was the Seattle defense left with Dan Quinn... Until proven otherwise... IMHO from afar...

 

[ptisme]

The real issue, IMO, is going to come down to how well the Packers can contain a heavy dose of running by stronger RB's and OL's. Not too worried about your OL (Not exactly on the level of the Dallas Cowboys), but Lacy can pack a wallop and he can shrink a defense down that opens up the edges and the passing game over the top. A speedster like Lockett, if he can get 1v1 coverage off of a play action could have a huge game.

If I were the 'hawks, I test the inside running game early and often and let my defense dictate field position. Look for the play action to take shots deep as the Packers Safety cheats up to stuff the run. Let Wilson roll out wide and break contain. Show "jet Sweep" often to keep the defense spread. Pick on Ryan in the middle and avoid Daniels.

Just my 2 cents.

Thanks for that. Good stuff … and from watching Pete Carroll and this coaching staff over the past few years, I can say that’s undoubtedly exactly the approach that they are going to employ. It is NO secret that Carroll LOVES to run the football. He is first and foremost a guy who wants to establish the run -- pound a team into submission -- and then hit them with the deep shots downfield. Marshawn Lynch so typified exactly the kind of ball that Pete Carroll loves -- smash mouth football. That’s why they brought in an Eddie Lacy … and they have really physical runners in Thomas Rawls … and now Chris Carson.

Seattle had 136 yards on the ground in that Week 14 game against the Packers in Lambeau last year … and I don’t see the focus shifting away from that approach. They are going to look to run the ball … FIRST AND FOREMOST … and run it a lot (especially on the road in a hostile, tough to play in, environment like Lambeau). Outside of last season, Seattle has always been among the league leaders in rushing. I don’t expect that focus to change anytime soon. They will certainly test that inside running game early and often, I can virtually promise that.

Yes, I know that the Seahawks haven’t won in Green Bay since 1999 … BUT, I wonder if they just might have the team to do it this year. And I say that based upon a few things …

1] Seattle’s Running Game. As I’ve noted above, running the football is in the Hawks DNA … and they’ve historically done it very well. The offensive line is improved and it looks like Seattle’s overall running attack is improved as well. Seattle did fairly well last year running the ball, so I would say they’re going to go to that well in this game. Stress clock management. Keep Aaron Rodgers and that offense OFF the field.


2] Packers Pass Defense Issues?

It’s interesting, as I’ve been studying this matchup more and more, I’ve been trying to figure out this Packers Pass Defense. I’ve noticed that there were definitely a lot of issues last year ...

8.1 Yards/Pass Attempt Allowed (32nd overall)
QB Rating Against of 95.9 (26th overall)
64.8% Completion Against (25th overall)
32 Passing TD’s Allowed (Tied 29th overall)
58 plays of 20 yards+ Allowed (Tied 3rd Most)
Allowed 41.2% of 3rd Downs to be converted (24th overall)

The question I’ve been trying to answer … is WHY? Why such problems in pass coverage?

After all, the Packers defense had 40 sacks (tied for 6th best) … just behind Seattle (who had 42, tied for 3rd). So, it doesn’t seem to be a matter of generating pressure, though I wonder if a lot of those sacks were generated by blitzing … which might account for possible holes in coverage schemes if the Packers can’t generate consistent pressure without it.

It’s abundantly clear that there were issues last year though. Based upon what you guys are saying and what I’m hearing, I’m wondering if it might have had something to do with personnel. In the podcast that I cited above, Brian Nemhauser brought up some very interesting stats from Pro Football Focus ...

Packers Pass Coverage (According to Pro Football Focus) 2016
SS Morgan Burnett … +3.6
DB LaDarius Gunter … +1.3
DB Makinton Dorleant … +1.1
FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix … +0.2

ROLB Nick Perry … -1.1
DB Sam Shields … -2.2
DB Micah Hyde … -2.4
ILB Jake Ryan … -3.7
ILB Joe Thomas … -3.7
DB Demetri Goodson … -3.8
DB Quinten Rollins … -4.4
ILB Blake Martinez … -5.2
RCB Damarious Randall … -10.7

Check out the negative pass coverage scores there -- I’ve highlighted guys who are still on this Packers team. You can certainly see the weak spots and where they were last year (noted in red).

Now, that was last year. This year -- totally unknown at this point. It’ll be very interesting to see how the Packers new additions … and the new schemes they’ve implemented will affect things when it comes to coverage.

Still, many of those guys I highlighted above are still starters, so I suspect that there will in fact be holes. Can Russell Wilson and company find and exploit those? That remains to be seen.


3] Overall Improvement of Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson was pretty banged up and hobbled when the Seahawks met the Packers in Week 13 last year. It was very noticeable that he wasn’t moving around all that well. He wasn’t all that much of a running threat at that point of the season. This year, it’s clear that his wheels are back. He’s moving around really well, stepping up in the pocket, sliding around, making great throws on the fly. So far, Russell Wilson has looked SHARP. I concur with the NFL’s Elliot Harrison who said that Russell Wilson is looking like an early MVP Candidate. He most certainly has looked very good.

4] Improvements to the Seahawks Defense Already noted above with the additions that the Hawks have made along with the new schemes that they are implementing. Like the Packers Defense, the new schemes that the Hawks are implementing are a virtual unknown … but I have to figure that it’s all going to be about shutting down those running lanes … and putting sustained pressure on Rodgers. If that offensive line is at all compromised, it could be a very long day.

Honestly, to me the biggest key to this game is, “Can the Packers establish the run?” If they can … then it could be a long day for the Hawks. I just look at it from this standpoint though -- a Seahawks defense that was fairly banged up in Week 14 last year held the Packers to just 93 Yards Rushing in Lambeau. And now the Packers are minus T.J. Lang … and maybe minus Bulaga for this game as well … and they’re facing a defense that’s finally healthy again and looking more formidable than they’ve looked in years.

I DO personally think that the Seahawks have the team to go into Lambeau and pull off the upset. I’m predicting that’s going to happen. Will it? Who knows? I can’t wait for this weekend to find out.

4. from afar: The greatness that was the Seattle defense left with Dan Quinn... Until proven otherwise... IMHO from afar...
PS, the key to this game is NOT whether GB can establish the run. I assume they won't... The key is if they can protect Rodgers...

 

[Hawkscanner]

4. from afar: The greatness that was the Seattle defense left with Dan Quinn... Until proven otherwise... IMHO from afar...
PS, the key to this game is NOT whether GB can establish the run. I assume they won't... The key is if they can protect Rodgers...

I won't argue with you that this defense hasn't been quite the same since Dan Quinn left. What it's exactly going to look like this Sunday and this season ... I think we can both agree is pretty much unknown. We'll see obviously.

As far as Green Bay needing to establish the run -- here's my rationale with that. Take New England as a perfect example. As is the case with the Pats, I think that in order to be effective against the Hawks ... you have to at least establish the threat of the run. You've got to be able to show that defense that they are capable of running it any time they want. You do that, that opens up play action pass ... that gets those guys to cheat up (to stop the run) ... and that opens up a whole lot of options for you. If you show you CAN'T run the ball (for whatever reason), you run the risk of becoming 1 dimensional against this group. That's a lonely place to be ... because then, this group can just focus on pinning their ears back ... shutting down those escape routes for Rodgers ... and containing and going after him.

That's what I've seen is the real key to beating this group. You have to at least show them you can run it anytime you want. If you can't ... Oooof!

 

[ptisme]

4. from afar: The greatness that was the Seattle defense left with Dan Quinn... Until proven otherwise... IMHO from afar...
PS, the key to this game is NOT whether GB can establish the run. I assume they won't... The key is if they can protect Rodgers...

I won't argue with you that this defense hasn't been quite the same since Dan Quinn left. What it's exactly going to look like this Sunday and this season ... I think we can both agree is pretty much unknown. We'll see obviously.

As far as Green Bay needing to establish the run -- here's my rationale with that. Take New England as a perfect example. As is the case with the Pats, I think that in order to be effective against the Hawks ... you have to at least establish the threat of the run. You've got to be able to show that defense that they are capable of running it any time they want. You do that, that opens up play action pass ... that gets those guys to cheat up (to stop the run) ... and that opens up a whole lot of options for you. If you show you CAN'T run the ball (for whatever reason), you run the risk of becoming 1 dimensional against this group. That's a lonely place to be ... because then, this group can just focus on pinning their ears back ... shutting down those escape routes for Rodgers ... and containing and going after him.

That's what I've seen is the real key to beating this group. You have to at least show them you can run it anytime you want. If you can't ... Oooof!

Rodgers is arguably one of the most talented quarterbacks ever to play the game. He doesn't need the run. He needs SOME pass protection. If Rodgers has time to throw he will beat most secondaries. Then the play action will open up the run... GB isn't going to line the ball up Sunday and stuff it down Seattle's throat. You and I both know that.... They will get stopped for no gain twice in the first series and forget about the run... Seattle is way too strong up front and then there's Wagner/Cam. If GB wants to win Rodgers needs a few seconds to run through his progressions. If that happens it's game over for Seattle. If his receivers have no time to run their routes then it's advantage Seattle.

 

[bigskydoc]

I don't think the game hinges on Rodgers scanning the field, it hinges on Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks.

Rodgers is a special talent. We can talk all day about his accuracy, his mobility, his leadership, but when the rubber meets the road, what really differentiates him from other QBs is his post-snap read. In that split second between the snap, and his first or second step, I think Rodgers reads and diagnoses defenses better than any other QB I have ever seen play.

However, Seattle takes this advantage away. They line up and show you exactly what they are going to do. In terms of pre and post snap reads, every QB is Aaron Rodgers. Beating Seattle, isn't about the reads, it's about the execution.

Teams have proven, time and time again, that the Seattle defense's kryptonite is that tight end attack over the middle. The blueprint was laid out by Frank Reich, and executed to perfection by Rivers and Gates. It has been copied successfully ever since. Even Brady/ Belichick used it in the Super Bowl.

I wouldn't go so far as to say it is the primary reason the Packers went out and secured this tight end tandem, but I do think it had some influence.

Even if we get pressure up the gut, Rodgers can dissect us by dinking and dunking across the middle.

I think the game comes down to this, and, Unless Richard/ Carroll have figured out an answer to the tight end conundrum, I think the Packers come away with the win

13-6 Packers.

 

[adeltaY]

I'd argue any QB, no matter how good, needs to have some semblance of balance to be effective, especially against a great defense. To the Dan Quinn point, it's somewhat true, but the Hawks still led the league in points allowed in '15 and dropped to third in '16 after ETIII's injury. Quinn averaged a #1 ranking in points allowed and Richard averages #2... not too much of a drop-off. I will say that Richard's defenses have struggled a lot more in the playoffs against elite competition than Quinn's did.

Then again, the Hawks have been on the road during those playoff stints as opposed to having homefield throughout when Quinn ran the defense.

 

[ptisme]

Bad news for Seattle: http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports ... 639886001/

 

[Hawkscanner]

Bad news for Seattle: http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports ... 639886001/

Good. I'd much rather have it that way personally. I want to see BOTH clubs at full strength -- at their very best. It's a more true and accurate measurement IMO.

Rodgers is arguably one of the most talented quarterbacks ever to play the game. He doesn't need the run. He needs SOME pass protection. If Rodgers has time to throw he will beat most secondaries. Then the play action will open up the run... GB isn't going to line the ball up Sunday and stuff it down Seattle's throat. You and I both know that.... They will get stopped for no gain twice in the first series and forget about the run... Seattle is way too strong up front and then there's Wagner/Cam. If GB wants to win Rodgers needs a few seconds to run through his progressions. If that happens it's game over for Seattle. If his receivers have no time to run their routes then it's advantage Seattle.

I completely agree -- Rodgers isn't most QB's (he's one of the best of all time) ... and at the same time, Seattle's secondary isn't most secondaries either (they're one of the best secondaries of all time as well). That's what makes this match-up so intriguing this Sunday.

In truth, there are many more unknowns than knowns at this point, as both the offenses and defenses (I think we can agree) have been pretty vanilla to this point. Both offensive and defensive coordinators in general are reluctant to tip their hand during the Preseason, so the public never sees the actual schemes and all the moving parts until they are rolled out there on opening day. I'm interested to see how both clubs look and what they end up throwing at each other this Sunday. Each of us is confident based upon what we know and have seen regarding our respective clubs. It'll be interesting to watch how this all unfolds once these 2 finally go head to head. Regardless of the eventual outcome of this particular contest, I think we can both agree -- these 2 teams (the Packers and the Seahawks) -- are going to be right there at the end, legitimately vying for the rights to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

 

[chris98251]

Bad news for Seattle: http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports ... 639886001/

We will see, practice with Kid Gloves on him versus a game with Boxing Gloves on will be a lot different.

 

[ptisme]

Bad news for Seattle: http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports ... 639886001/

Good. I'd much rather have it that way personally. I want to see BOTH clubs at full strength -- at their very best. It's a more true and accurate measurement IMO.

Rodgers is arguably one of the most talented quarterbacks ever to play the game. He doesn't need the run. He needs SOME pass protection. If Rodgers has time to throw he will beat most secondaries. Then the play action will open up the run... GB isn't going to line the ball up Sunday and stuff it down Seattle's throat. You and I both know that.... They will get stopped for no gain twice in the first series and forget about the run... Seattle is way too strong up front and then there's Wagner/Cam. If GB wants to win Rodgers needs a few seconds to run through his progressions. If that happens it's game over for Seattle. If his receivers have no time to run their routes then it's advantage Seattle.

I completely agree -- Rodgers isn't most QB's (he's one of the best of all time) ... and at the same time, Seattle's secondary isn't most secondaries either (they're one of the best secondaries of all time as well). That's what makes this match-up so intriguing this Sunday.

In truth, there are many more unknowns than knowns at this point, as both the offenses and defenses (I think we can agree) have been pretty vanilla to this point. Both offensive and defensive coordinators in general are reluctant to tip their hand during the Preseason, so the public never sees the actual schemes and all the moving parts until they are rolled out there on opening day. I'm interested to see how both clubs look and what they end up throwing at each other this Sunday. Each of us is confident based upon what we know and have seen regarding our respective clubs. It'll be interesting to watch how this all unfolds once these 2 finally go head to head. Regardless of the eventual outcome of this particular contest, I think we can both agree -- these 2 teams (the Packers and the Seahawks) -- are going to be right there at the end, legitimately vying for the rights to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Agreed on all above. And yet, after the game, whatever the result: it will have seemed obvious to us looking back

 

[ptisme]

Bad news for Seattle: http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports ... 639886001/

We will see, practice with Kid Gloves on him versus a game with Boxing Gloves on will be a lot different.

He's an offensive lineman, not a defensive back. And he practiced without a brace.