To all of the "Pete Ball" defenders

[DomeHawk]

And now I present some more numbers for consideration
Through 3 games
Play call by down
1st down
2019 37 runs 48 pass
2020 39 runs. 46 pass

2nd down
2019. 25 runs 31 pass
2020. 30 runs. 37 pass

3rd down
2019. 10 runs. 26 pass
2020 7 runs. 18 pass

And for Twisted let’s look at by QTR

1st Qtr
2019. 20 run. 20 pass
2020. 17 run. 22 pass

2nd Qtr
2019. 17 run. 31 pass
2020. 21 run. 31 pass

3rd Qtr
2019. 14 run 19 pass
2020. 19 run. 23 pass

4th Qtr
2019 15 run. 27 pass
2020. 19 run. 27 pass

So what is Pete ball and what is cooking, statistically I don’t see much difference.

Stats don't take into account specific situations. You cannot depend on them to see the real picture and this is a perfect example of that. Clearly what we are seeing is different from year's past. We aren't waiting to the 4th qtr to win the game.

Things like we run more in the second half because we are ahead and want to burn clock. Or, running less in second half because in year's past we are behind because we don't score early. So many different situations that a simple stat can't reveal.

And where is your link for these stats?

 

[AgentDib]

I don't think arguing this issue either way is particularly interesting, as the meaning of "cooking" changes weekly and with the person making the argument. The bit about passing on 1st down - but not passing more overall - is only the most recent take on it and will be equally short lived. It carries an inconvenient corollary of needing to run more on third and fourth downs which nobody believes.

Perhaps we can all agree that "Russ cooking" means having an efficient and effective offense. Unpredictability is a key component of efficiency, as is tailoring your game plan to the opponent in question. Schotty is doing an excellent job from the booth, the OL is surpassing most expectations, and Russ has put together three excellent games to start the season.

We aren't waiting to the 4th qtr to win the game.

I don't see that the Hawks are taking more chances this year. We still punted on 4th down on Sunday from the same places we've punted on 4th down in previous seasons. Russ threw a few passes out of bounds rather than take a chance on a contested throw, and he also pulled it down and scrambled a couple of times when it wasn't there. Russ should have zero interceptions.

 

[themunn]

Russell absolutely cooked the first half of the 2019 season to be fair - he was an MVP favourite alongside Jackson, pretty much until Lockett got that leg contusion injury in the 49er game and then they both tailed off.
22 TDs to 1 interception after 9 games, to go with 3 rushing TDs. 8/9 games with passer rating over 100, 5 of those over 130.

It's not quite the incredible pace he's on this year (also it's a small sample size), but I think people forget we started 10-2 last year, and if not for the injuries to Carson and Penny likely win the division if not the 1 seed. What we're seeing this year is a continuation of that, with Lockett at full speed, Metcalf taking a 2nd year jump, and Wilson overall looking even more comfortable in Scotty's offense.

 

[Ozzy]

Bringing up 2015 when we had one of the worst offensive lines in modern football history as to why this team with this personnel shouldn't throw more in early down situations is a bad argument. Saying Russ is better against man is also over simplifying the situation as cmikespinmove showed on Twitter and the advanced stats have Russ as more efficient against zone although I would argue that's an oversimplification as well.

Most of the let Russ cook crowd didn't want 50 passes a game and framing it from an extreme is intellectually dishonest. It was always more about situational play calling. The Seahawks are doing what good offenses do which is to be slight more aggressive on early downs. They wen from dead last to top 3 in that regard and it seems to be helping the offense even though you and others claimed it wouldn't.

 

[Flyingsquad23]

The numbers come from Pro Football Reference
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

And I wasn’t trying to say this year is just like last, just found the similarities so far to interesting. As far as specific situations go I recommend checking that site, they have detailed game splits for all of the Russ era and I think you might be surprised at what you see.

@Dome the site breaks down the splits to every situation down, down and distance, home/ away, time remaining, score differential, NFC/AFC, play type, month, day, indoors/outdoors.....you get the picture. They break it down completely. It is definitely not the offense we’ve seen during the LOB years or post Lynch years but they also have more weapons than most of those years, not to mention the expected maturation of Russ. Numbers will tell the story if you listen.

I’m loving the way the offense is playing right now, I’m more than confident Russ can “cook” all year long which one would think should make the running game deadly. Balance is the key for me, you have to be able to win games with all three phases.

 

[Ad Hawk]

The numbers come from Pro Football Reference
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

And I wasn’t trying to say this year is just like last, just found the similarities so far to interesting. As far as specific situations go I recommend checking that site, they have detailed game splits for all of the Russ era and I think you might be surprised at what you see.

@Dome the site breaks down the splits to every situation down, down and distance, home/ away, time remaining, score differential, NFC/AFC, play type, month, day, indoors/outdoors.....you get the picture. They break it down completely. It is definitely not the offense we’ve seen during the LOB years or post Lynch years but they also have more weapons than most of those years, not to mention the expected maturation of Russ. Numbers will tell the story if you listen.

I’m loving the way the offense is playing right now, I’m more than confident Russ can “cook” all year long which one would think should make the running game deadly. Balance is the key for me, you have to be able to win games with all three phases.

I'm grateful for more specific numbers, rather than so many reactions to the eye-test, emotion-driven memories, etc. It's true that numbers need a context, but as more context emerges, I doubt Russ is being asked to do much more than in years past.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

3 pages talking about Pete's balls. Noice

 

[TwistedHusky]

You do realize that Wilson has broken a TD record this year...right?

Kind of hard to say nothing changed when he literally scored more TDs in 3 games than any QB in the history of the NFL.

Did that happen last year and everyone just conveniently forgot?

It is a weird hill to die on unless you are literally not watching the games. To say this is not different is laughable.

Go ask Carson if things are different.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

It's obvious it's different this year, and it was from the jump.

 

[Fade]

I don't think arguing this issue either way is particularly interesting, as the meaning of "cooking" changes weekly and with the person making the argument. The bit about passing on 1st down - but not passing more overall - is only the most recent take on it and will be equally short lived. It carries an inconvenient corollary of needing to run more on third and fourth downs which nobody believes.

Nope. The "Let Russ Cook" argument has always been about efficiency. It is more efficient to throw on early downs, than to repeatedly run into loaded boxes. It all came to a head in the Dallas playoff game. And the movement really picked up steam afterwords.

Casual, Lehman's muddied the waters by just taking it to mean chuck it all over the yard, and abandon the run. "Pete Ball" defenders then used that as a strawman to defend the stupidity. When all along it is just about being more efficient, and maximizing your best player, and doing what is best for the team in neutral script situations.

The Seahawks would be running the ball more in the 2nd halves of these games (as they should) had the defense not been made of swiss-cheese, but the real difference is showing up early in the game. They are letting him cook, they are building 2nd half leads, and they are giving themselves the best chance to win.


AND… … …

[tweet]https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1310619491450138626[/tweet]
Irrefutable, factual evidence. They are calling the game different this year on offense. And they're all the better for it.

 

[chris98251]

The difference is they are not testing and looking at stuff for 3 quarters, they are attacking with both Run and Pass out of the gate and dictating what they are doing, just happens the Pass is getting bulk yards a lot.

 

[strohmin]

I don't know about anyone else but this is the first year that I am actually happy about the offense. They are sustaining drives by converting first downs and scoring touchdown. Russ looks like he is actually controlling the offense instead of just calling whatever plays were given to him. If Pete waited this long to let Russ control the offense then he should be fired for wasting what could have been a potential dynasty.

 

[Ad Hawk]

If Pete waited this long to let Russ control the offense then he should be fired for wasting what could have been a potential dynasty.

Even now when he's giving you what you want, and setting records along the way? That's ludicrous.

 

[Ozzy]

Wait for the first sputter and the Pete ball defenders are going to be back on full force. Of course it’s intellectually dishonest but I guarantee it happens. Strangely when the offense sputtered almost every game during Pete ball era they never complained.

It’s fair to criticize Pete for waiting this long but I’m personally trying to ignore it and just be happy he did evolve and let Schott and Russ more freedom to do it their way. I didn’t think he had it in him to be honest

 

[sutz]

This year has been an anomaly. I fully expect defenses to start picking up the pace a bit and slow down the torrent of offense we've seen so far this season.

 

[Ozzy]

I agree. I do think Seattle sticks with throwing more on early downs than at any point in Pete's history. It's a switch that should of happened much sooner.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Not being stuck in 2nd and 8 over and over again is huge. I love seeing them throw on 1st down more. Get 6-8 yards on 1st down and you have some really good options on 2nd and short.

 

[HawkerD]

Pete Ball is a fallback position. Its what you do when you have a above average D, a good ground game AND a mid tier or young QB that are prone to mistakes. Year 1 and 2 of Russ's career that might have been the case. By year three, Russ showed he knew how to take care of the ball and the offense should have begun to be built around him. It has cost us in NFC seeding and Playoff performance.

After year 3 Pete ball was the wrong approach period. Once Russ showed the training wheels were unnecessary, Pete should have put him on a mountain bike at the top of whistler and said "Go Get It" (metaphorically speaking of course). Better late than never I suppose. Russ has a bunch of years ahead of him and will make the most of them.

Look at the browns this year. They have a QB prone to mistakes so they have reverted to a run heavy Offense and it is working out thus far.

 

[Fade]

[youtube]jccMjNnauUM[/youtube]
Brett breaks it down perfect.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Anyone else ready to move on from hearing the team "let Russ cook" at this point?
Just let Russ be Russ...…….