Ultra-Conservative Offense A PC Rope-A-Dope?

[Happy]

BECAUSE HE'S SHORT.

Yeah, I'm goin' there.

The day before the NFC Championship game? Really Montana?

'scuse me, but I'm gonna move my tray down to the next table, I really don't feel like having my Wheaties pissed in right now.

:179419: is so I don't say what I'm really thinking.

I should be studying anyway. Back to the books.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

BECAUSE HE'S SHORT.

Yeah, I'm goin' there.

The day before the NFC Championship game? Really Montana?

'scuse me, but I'm gonna move my tray down to the next table, I really don't feel like having my Wheaties pissed in right now.

Then read my last sentence.

 

[Blitzer88]

Frankly, our offense looks pedestrian because Russell has been pretty off the last several weeks. If we want to look better on offense, Russell has to play better.

 

[hawk45]

Montana your last sentence doesn't soften the blow at all. The record this year is largely to do with a historic defense. So if Russell is just toast against a good front 7, at some point when our defense is only playing top-5 instead of historic level, our winning is over. Last year defenses weren't keeping Wilson in the pocket, but that's not the case anymore. 8-8 here we come is what you're saying.

I'm not going to write the epitaph on Wilson as a pocket passer until he has Rice or Harvin back out there, I'm just not. And I'm not going to write a complete pass for Bevell and the OL. Sometimes Wilson has held the ball, some times he's had a guy on him from the get-go. And 10 games of getting the you-know-what kicked out of him is probably affecting his behavior in the pocket also.

Of the 3 QBs who had to respond to the adjustments defenses made against them, Wilson has done the best job IMO. We haven't seen Wilson's ceiling as a pocket passer any more than we've seen Kaepernick's or RGIII's.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Montana your last sentence doesn't soften the blow at all. The record this year is largely to do with a historic defense. So if Russell is just toast against a good front 7, at some point when our defense is only playing top-5 instead of historic level, our winning is over. Last year defenses weren't keeping Wilson in the pocket, but that's not the case anymore. 8-8 here we come is what you're saying.

Don't fudge my words to improve your point. "Toast against a good front 7" isn't what I said or even what I implied. Wilson at his worst will still make the plays he needs to, as he's been doing for the last few games. He's been off on some easy throws lately, but that's easily correctable. And I would like to think that another WR and an elite guard might make life a BIT easier. But against great front sevens, I just think Wilson's performance will be rougher around the edges. I'm okay with that, honestly. It's a great floor to have.

I just think that if we refuse to consider Wilson's height as a factor in the game plan (and his conservative disposition, which you didn't address), we've probably got our heads in the sand. And since we're chasing causes for Wilson's apparent regression...well...it matters. I'm not worried about it; I did predict a Super Bowl win this year, after all.

 

[hawk45]

I can handle rough around the edges vs a good front 7. You said that much of his success came from being able to escape the pocket and that against he's not getting that anymore. If he's without "much" of his success, that's not as far from toast as you're making it out to be. You soften it slightly later by dialing back down to "he's not going to perform as well", but I think it's forgivable if I reacted to the more negative words when the point of the entire post was that OL, Bevell, WRs, are minor factors compared to Wilson's height and conservatism. I think that judgment is way premature.

 

[sutz]

If it's a 'rope-a-dope' it's an opportunistic one. We haven't really needed to take exorbitant risks to win games, so we haven't. :229031_shrug:

 

[jewhawk]

I don't agree with Montana's position re: Wilson's limitations. The Saints have had one of the league's most consistent explosive offenses for years with a QB an inch taller than Wilson. Our offense for the last 10 weeks of last season was the best in the league with the same personnel we have now. Wilson's height hasn't been the limiting factor in our offense in recent weeks.

The limiting factor has been the conservative game planning and play calling. Our offense had 42 plays on 1st and 2nd downs against the Saints and had 9 passing attempts. We had 14 plays on 3rd downs with 9 passing attempts, mostly with empty backfields. Wilson has struggled the last few weeks because he's been throwing almost exclusively when the defense knows it's going to be a pass. That's an impossible situation. When there's no creativity or deception in the play calling, any offense will struggle. That has to go on the coach and offensive coordinator, not the second year QB.

My hope, and maybe it's just wishful thinking, is that the offense was super conservative down the stretch because after the MNF Saints game we had games to spare before risking home field and continued in the playoff game because of the weather, but will be opened up against the 49ers. You can only rely on the defense so much. Even last week when our defense dominated the game, if Meachem could have broken a tackle after that fluky tipped should-have-been-INT, it could have been a tie game with 5 minutes left. We've seen what this offense is capable of, and it's frustrating to see Pete and Bevell trying to sit on a lead and run time out instead of putting the game away.

 

[formido]

The three-and-outs are coming because Wilson refuses to throw interceptions. I just summed up the Seahawks offense.

Russell Wilson is conservative and has simply started meeting more teams who know how to keep him in the pocket. We have to recognize just how much of Wilson's success has come from him leaving the pocket and either running for a first down or hitting a scrambling WR open downfield. It's a huge chunk. In the last month or so, he hasn't had much of that. Defenses have given him only his pocket. And when he's in anything but a broad, wide-open pocket, he's not going to perform as well.

BECAUSE HE'S SHORT.

Yeah, I'm goin' there. What we have right now is how Russell Wilson is probably always going to be. He's short. He can't see over his offensive line. It's going to make sideline strikes and swing throws more comfortable for him, slants and crosses more dicey, and work between the hashes flat-out dangerous. It's no surprise to me that the game plan is distributed accordingly. He's also very conservative. He doesn't make "2004/2006 Hasselbeck throws" into double coverage. It just never happens. The tight ends won't be there because Pete (not Bevell) is constantly looking for the big play and thus has play-action as a huge component of the playbook, which means few TEs and RBs being released for outlet routes and instead getting kept in to block.

Combine all these factors and you have a QB who's feast-or-famine, maddeningly conservative, constantly making his O-line look bad by not getting the ball out, and has his worst brought out by defensive front sevens with the ability to keep him in the pocket. Why do you think we traded for a short, frail receiver known mostly for his prowess in swing passes and YAC? Percy Harvin is an answer to Wilson's height. He gives his QB, and thus the offense, breathing room.

We can upgrade at guard a bit perhaps, and get that big-bodied WR who can make automatic red-zone catches on any ball thrown his way. But after this year, I don't see much more room for upgrade. QB is the bottleneck of offensive talent; his abilities always dictate the playbook. Leave Bevell alone. Wilson's conservatism and limited vision requires his O-line to block for eight seconds regularly. Leave the O-line alone. Our receivers could be improved in the height and red-zone department, but they still have to be seen by the passer. Leave the WR's alone.

This is Russell Wilson; this is what we have in him. I think we'd better start getting used to it. And from the 26-9 record he's posted so far, I think we're pretty well off.

Wrong as usual. The existence of Drew Brees is enough to immediately destroy your hypothesis.

Care to explain the many times Wilson dominated from the pocket in his career, even after teams "figured him out", e.g., Arizona on the road this season? Arizona had the #2 defense in the NFL this year and has precisely the personnel to implement the optimal strategy against Wilson, and yet Wilson still threw all over them. That should literally be impossible because he's too short.

If you've been following Wilson, you know that teams didn't just figure out that they should keep contain on Wilson. They've known that and tried to implement it with varying degrees of success since about game 8 of last season. To the extent that they can hinder him depends on talent and chance.

I can guess that from now until the end of his career, any time Wilson's passer rating dips when we coincidentally face a streak of elite defensive passer rating teams, which is 100% what you would expect, and happens with every single QB who has ever existed, you'll explain it as Wilson being short.

Wilson's slump over the last few games is vastly overblown, as described here:

http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-note ... n-the-edge

Luckily, Wilson is the first QB EVER to have >100 passer rating his first two seasons, so it looks like the short hypothesis isn't good for too much.

 

[samwize77]

I'm thinking Pete hasn't been showing everything. The basic package is what we've been doing. Run, run ,run...safe pass. It is after all what we do. With a great defense, its all you really need right? I do think there will be wrinkles this week though. I do think there will be more down field throwing to help open that d-line some, and I do predict a trick play in the first quarter. A Golden Tate pass to a wide open Miller...I just feel it coming.

 

[hawkfan68]

The three-and-outs are coming because Wilson refuses to throw interceptions. I just summed up the Seahawks offense.

Russell Wilson is conservative and has simply started meeting more teams who know how to keep him in the pocket. We have to recognize just how much of Wilson's success has come from him leaving the pocket and either running for a first down or hitting a scrambling WR open downfield. It's a huge chunk. In the last month or so, he hasn't had much of that. Defenses have given him only his pocket. And when he's in anything but a broad, wide-open pocket, he's not going to perform as well.

BECAUSE HE'S SHORT.

Yeah, I'm goin' there. What we have right now is how Russell Wilson is probably always going to be. He's short. He can't see over his offensive line. It's going to make sideline strikes and swing throws more comfortable for him, slants and crosses more dicey, and work between the hashes flat-out dangerous. It's no surprise to me that the game plan is distributed accordingly. He's also very conservative. He doesn't make "2004/2006 Hasselbeck throws" into double coverage. It just never happens. The tight ends won't be there because Pete (not Bevell) is constantly looking for the big play and thus has play-action as a huge component of the playbook, which means few TEs and RBs being released for outlet routes and instead getting kept in to block.

Combine all these factors and you have a QB who's feast-or-famine, maddeningly conservative, constantly making his O-line look bad by not getting the ball out, and has his worst brought out by defensive front sevens with the ability to keep him in the pocket. Why do you think we traded for a short, frail receiver known mostly for his prowess in swing passes and YAC? Percy Harvin is an answer to Wilson's height. He gives his QB, and thus the offense, breathing room.

We can upgrade at guard a bit perhaps, and get that big-bodied WR who can make automatic red-zone catches on any ball thrown his way. But after this year, I don't see much more room for upgrade. QB is the bottleneck of offensive talent; his abilities always dictate the playbook. Leave Bevell alone. Wilson's conservatism and limited vision requires his O-line to block for eight seconds regularly. Leave the O-line alone. Our receivers could be improved in the height and red-zone department, but they still have to be seen by the passer. Leave the WR's alone.

This is Russell Wilson; this is what we have in him. I think we'd better start getting used to it. And from the 26-9 record he's posted so far, I think we're pretty well off.

Wrong as usual. The existence of Drew Brees is enough to immediately destroy your hypothesis.

Care to explain the many times Wilson dominated from the pocket in his career, even after teams "figured him out", e.g., Arizona on the road this season? Arizona had the #2 defense in the NFL this year and has precisely the personnel to implement the optimal strategy against Wilson, and yet Wilson still threw all over them. That should literally be impossible because he's too short.

If you've been following Wilson, you know that teams didn't just figure out that they should keep contain on Wilson. They've known that and tried to implement it with varying degrees of success since about game 8 of last season. To the extent that they can hinder him depends on talent and chance.

I can guess that from now until the end of his career, any time Wilson's passer rating dips when we coincidentally face a streak of elite defensive passer rating teams, which is 100% what you would expect, and happens with every single QB who has ever existed, you'll explain it as Wilson being short.

Wilson's slump over the last few games is vastly overblown, as described here:

http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-note ... n-the-edge

Luckily, Wilson is the first QB EVER to have >100 passer rating his first two seasons, so it looks like the short hypothesis isn't good for too much.

Oh really...Arizona had the #2 defense? Well I guess ESPN and NFL.com didn't get the memo then. Looks like they were #6 according to them. http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/seasontype/2 http://www.nfl.com/stats/team?seasonId=2013&seasonType=REG&Submit=Go.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

DVOA has Arizona at #2 defense.

Wrong as usual.

As usual? Well, it's nice to know that you're such a devoted follower of my posts.

Watch the Arizona game and pay attention to how many of Wilson's big plays feature space for him to take off and make plays on the run. It's a lot of them. Defenses have really clamped down on that space in the last month. It's like Wilson plays looser with that space, and losing it cramps his style a bit. Also, a lot of his plays are still occurring along the sidelines (early wheel route to Willson, for example) and not down the middle.

Drew Brees benefits from elite guards and thus pristine throwing lanes. Our offensive line is better than many people give it credit for, but it's not to that level yet. Maybe Wilson will look like Brees once his guards are elite, but given how focused we are on the run, I think that's where our guard criteria will be focused as well: run-blocking, at least until we can find another Steve Hutchinson.

At the current talent level of this team, Wilson will have days like the first Arizona game and days like the second Arizona game. If there's ceiling for him beyond his own development, it might take years to find. Meanwhile, I think it'd be naive to suggest that his height doesn't matter at all and that every aspect of the passing game is equally viable for him.

And once again, Wilson's conservative disposition is contributing to this as well. He doesn't take a lot of risky throws. I doubt that changes for him, especially under Pete Carroll and especially while he's churning out double-digit wins in part because of it. (I felt the need to mention this again since it's obvious that nobody got past the word "height" in my first post before panicking and ceasing to read.)

 

[hawkfan68]

Thanks MontanaHawk....Sorry Formido, forgot about DVOA.

 

[hawk45]

Wilson takes care of the ball well, but the conservatism doesn't come all from him. Last year he threw to double-covered receivers from the pocket (I have a play in my head where he threw a ball to DB deep middle for a touchdown where 2 defenders were right up on DB but the ball placement was perfect).

That's why the conservatism is redundant IMO. Wilson takes care of it well enough by his nature, he doesn't need the gameplan to surround not turning it over. Such a gameplan is a detriment.

Wilson had Rice for the first meeting with AZ and no Rice in the 2nd meeting. I don't understand how the discrepancy in those games goes to Wilson's height or his own conservatism. Wilson played a bad game, really one of the few bad games we've seen out of him, but now this is part of a trend with him? Way too soon to say that with finality.

I do agree that height is not a zero factor, I agree that better guards are a greater need for Wilson than a different QB and that getting better guards will be a help. Also, Wilson hasn't been as good in the pocket as out of it this year, you're correct. This year he's had a train wreck of an OL for 10 games and then no #1 WR for the remaining games, however. Most quarterbacks don't have nearly the success he had this year in that set of circumstances.

 

[Largent80]

For some reason, I have a feeling we are going to break out a shiny new play call Sunday.

 

[niveky]

My take on this is that Wilson is the ultimate team guy/teammate. Wilson knows what he is capable of, the coaches know what he is capable of. Even with the offense how it is, he has still made some great plays in the middle of what a lot of people think has been crap. My belief is that Wilson is so completely at one with the team concept that he religiously follows what Carroll wants him to do and how he wants him to play. We saw what happened last year when Carroll even admitted they were holding Wilson back and they let him loose and they had one of the best offenses from that point through the rest of last season. The defense, as good as it was last year is above and beyond what it was last year. I am sure that Carroll has every confidence in Wilson, but with the defense being so good, and the run game being pretty good most of the year, I think Carroll has played his hand every game based off of that.


Wilson has not turned the ball over very much again this year, and with that same defense and running game, for the most part they haven't needed Wilson to make the plays that he was consistently making last year. It is my belief that Wilson, for his part, is going to follow what Carroll wants almost to the letter. I think that the only thing holding Wilson back is the leash that Carroll has on him. Wilson understands why that leash is there and is all in and is doing what Carroll wants because he is on the same page.

I think that the old stereotypical comments made by a lot of players that aren't necessarily true about personal stats/accolades don't matter...Wilson truly embodies them like very few players actually do. Whatever tasks/gameplan the coaches have for Wilson week in and week out he is going to do whatever he can to conform to those models. Again..just my take..since I can't telepathically pick his brain from thousands of miles away

 

[jewhawk]

And once again, Wilson's conservative disposition is contributing to this as well. He doesn't take a lot of risky throws. I doubt that changes for him, especially under Pete Carroll and especially while he's churning out double-digit wins in part because of it. (I felt the need to mention this again since it's obvious that nobody got past the word "height" in my first post before panicking and ceasing to read.)

What do you mean by risky throws? Wilson throws into coverage frequently with success. Wilson was #2 in the league in AirYPA this year while being 27th in YAC%. Those aren't the numbers of someone making safe throws and relying on his receivers to get yards after the catch. You can't blame the conservative nature of the game planning and play calling on the second year QB; that's on the coaches. Wilson doesn't have the amount of control over the offense that a 10 year veteran would.

Wilson takes care of the ball well, but the conservatism doesn't come all from him. Last year he threw to double-covered receivers from the pocket (I have a play in my head where he threw a ball to DB deep middle for a touchdown where 2 defenders were right up on DB but the ball placement was perfect).

That's why the conservatism is redundant IMO. Wilson takes care of it well enough by his nature, he doesn't need the gameplan to surround not turning it over. Such a gameplan is a detriment.

This is exactly what I'm trying to get at. If we had a Jay Cutler or Andy Dalton who are prone to turnovers, being conservative and relying on the defense would make more sense. But we've seen how explosive our offense is when Wilson is allowed to do more, and Wilson has never shown any tendency to give the game away. Sitting on the ball and hoping the defense holds is dangerous because one fluke play can turn the game. Like the example I used in my previous post, if Meachem somehow breaks away and scores after that fluke tipped pass last week, it could be a tie game with 5 minutes left in a game where our defense dominated. If the offense had been unleashed all game, we probably have a 3 score lead at that point.

 

[Hawks46]

I'm going to jump in here for a minute. First of all, Wilson's height isn't determining his ceiling. His intangibles, namely football intelligence and ability to process information quickly will be what decides whether he improves or not. He has all the intangibles; the thing he's been doing so far his whole career is missing some of his reads and open WRs.

A few other things:

Like others have said, Brees not only succeeds but he excels, so Wilson being 1 inch shorter won't define his capabilities. Add to this that Wilson is way more athletic than Brees and brings another dimension. That can also retard his growth a bit; look at all the athletic QBs: RG3, Newton, Kaepernick etc. These guys rely on their athleticism to get by when hitting a 3rd-5th read is what bails out a Manning or Brady or Brees that doesn't have the legs to bail them out. Wilson has proven he can throw the quick slant in a WCO at NC State; Wisconsin was a Pro system with OLmen every bit as large as ours...he's proven he can do it.

OL affects a lot of QBs. It's pretty well determined around the league that if you want to disrupt an offense you have to get to the QB. This isn't a revelation about WIlson. Thing is, our OL is pretty shitty really. I've been harping this since day 1 of this year; last year was more overachieving from this same group of guys. Add to that not one, but two OT's out....well has any QB really had to deal with that this year, and how did it affect them?

We can only take what we get from Wilson's pressers, which is always the same thing. He has a different perspective, and he won't let it see us. If he's been getting crushed quickly behind this OL, no matter what he says, he will lose confidence in them. Bailing from the pocket more quickly, not hitting his 3rd read, dumping the ball off more quickly, poor accuracy, all of this comes from piss poor protection. Add to that elite defenses that specialize in getting to the QB. Wilson seems to be trying to bail from the pocket more quickly this year than the end of last year, but defenses have figured out how to keep him in the pocket. It's a bad trend that I'm confident he'll figure out, but it's a bad trend and it's affecting him to be sure.

Add to this that our WR corps is above average at best. They aren't burners and our pass routes seem pretty rudimentary. Without physical explosion to aid them, DBs are not letting them get open as they know where they're going half the time.

 

[RichNhansom]

Last game when Harvin was in we looked good but when he went out we struggled. Baldwin was talking about this on KJR. He said the two weeks prior Harvin got all the snaps in the slot so when he went out it shuffled our receiving corp into a mode we hadn't practiced for. Add that to some of the worst weather conditions of the year and Bush out there head hunting and it really is no surprise we struggled some.

I'm disappointed, but not exactly surprised, that Baldwin is being a bitch about losing playing time. I kinda wish sometimes he would have more of a "nose to the ground, I'll do what I can for the team" attitude.

He wasn't bitching. He was commenting about why we seemed to tail off after Harvin left the game. He played flanker and practiced at flanker while Harvin was working in the slot. When Harvin went down they moved Baldwin to the slot because he is the next best guy in that position. Unfortunately without the practice they weren't synced up.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

The three-and-outs are coming because Wilson refuses to throw interceptions. I just summed up the Seahawks offense.

Russell Wilson is conservative and has simply started meeting more teams who know how to keep him in the pocket. We have to recognize just how much of Wilson's success has come from him leaving the pocket and either running for a first down or hitting a scrambling WR open downfield. It's a huge chunk. In the last month or so, he hasn't had much of that. Defenses have given him only his pocket. And when he's in anything but a broad, wide-open pocket, he's not going to perform as well.

BECAUSE HE'S SHORT.

Yeah, I'm goin' there. What we have right now is how Russell Wilson is probably always going to be. He's short. He can't see over his offensive line. It's going to make sideline strikes and swing throws more comfortable for him, slants and crosses more dicey, and work between the hashes flat-out dangerous. It's no surprise to me that the game plan is distributed accordingly. He's also very conservative. He doesn't make "2004/2006 Hasselbeck throws" into double coverage. It just never happens. The tight ends won't be there because Pete (not Bevell) is constantly looking for the big play and thus has play-action as a huge component of the playbook, which means few TEs and RBs being released for outlet routes and instead getting kept in to block.

Combine all these factors and you have a QB who's feast-or-famine, maddeningly conservative, constantly making his O-line look bad by not getting the ball out, and has his worst brought out by defensive front sevens with the ability to keep him in the pocket. Why do you think we traded for a short, frail receiver known mostly for his prowess in swing passes and YAC? Percy Harvin is an answer to Wilson's height. He gives his QB, and thus the offense, breathing room.

We can upgrade at guard a bit perhaps, and get that big-bodied WR who can make automatic red-zone catches on any ball thrown his way. But after this year, I don't see much more room for upgrade. QB is the bottleneck of offensive talent; his abilities always dictate the playbook. Leave Bevell alone. Wilson's conservatism and limited vision requires his O-line to block for eight seconds regularly. Leave the O-line alone. Our receivers could be improved in the height and red-zone department, but they still have to be seen by the passer. Leave the WR's alone.

This is Russell Wilson; this is what we have in him. I think we'd better start getting used to it. And from the 26-9 record he's posted so far, I think we're pretty well off.

Naw, it couldn't possibly be his number 1 and 2 receivers are out. That's too obvious and logical for you it seems.