Week 13 - Pick your dogs

[drdiags]

Tzaro, you want to take another stab at it?

If you could just list your underdogs that would work. Not necessary, I just will not add your selections to the big grid or add you to the summary totals so don't sweat it if you aren't interested in that.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Maybe next week I will suggest a max for outright/covers with a way to reward risk while penalizing incorrect selections?

Hmmm. That could work. You could also give more points for each selection the fewer the number of selections you make; so if someone makes three picks, each one could be worth five points, but if you make seven picks, each one could be worth two, or something.

 

[drdiags]

My picks, so no funny business later:

Cover:

Tampa Bay, Rams

Outright:

Bengals, Jags, Packers

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Cover:

Raiders, Bucs, Rams


Win outright:

Cardinals, Bengals, Bears

 

[IcedHawk]

Packers, Raiders, Jags, Tampa cover

Steelers, tits, cards, rams, chiefs, bengals win

 

[bestfightstory]

Tampa Bay and St Louie to win.

 

[davidonmi]

late additions. I like St. Louis to cover and Pit to win

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Cover:

Raiders, Bucs, Rams


Win outright:

Cardinals, Bengals, Bears

Hey Doc, I've changed my mind on the Cards winning outright. Dome, warm weather team in Philly in the cold, don't even see a cover now.

Thanks.

 

[drdiags]

Cover:

Raiders, Bucs, Rams


Win outright:

Cardinals, Bengals, Bears

Hey Doc, I've changed my mind on the Cards winning outright. Dome, warm weather team in Philly in the cold, don't even see a cover now.

Thanks.

Done. Removed your Cardinals selection.

 

[drdiags]

Bump.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Well from what I've seen of the weather back east I jumped the gun on that Cards prediction pull. Oh well, is what it is.

EDIT: Cards down 24-7 in the third. Guess I made the right move no matter the reasoning behind it.

 

[drdiags]

So far leading up to SNF
==================

4 underdogs won outright
3 covered the spread
1 push on the spread


Note
===

I will put together a little chart that weighs all our predictions, called the RolandDeschain standings.

Here is what I am coming up with.

Show your skills
---------------

Pick outright winner - 2 pts
Pick spread winner - 1 pt
Miss outright winner - (-1pt)
Miss cover - (-2pts)

Less sometimes is more
----------------------
1 -4 picks = use multiplier of 1 times total value
5 -8 picks = 0.75 (if positive) or 1.25 (if negative)
9-12 picks = 0.50 (if positive) or 1.50 (if negative)
13-16 picks = 0.25 (if positive) or 1.75 (if negative)

Summary
---------

The thinking is outright is a bigger risk, so should be rewarded. Making a ton of picks reduces the chance of coming up empty but should not be a benefit. This is just for my own interest.

 

[drdiags]

So in my case, I had 5 picks. 3 outright and 2 to cover.

So I have:

Outright: (2+2-1) = 3 pts
Cover: (-2-2)= -4 pts

I end up with a total of (-1) x (1.25) or a weight of -1.25 with positive reflecting a better weight.

By comparison, BFS had 2 to win outright both losses so he has (-2) x 1 (4 or less picks) for a weight of -2.

What do you guys think (for those that care)?

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

I didn't know there was gonna be math involved.........no seriously it looks reasonable to me Doc.

 

[drdiags]

I didn't know there was gonna be math involved.........no seriously it looks reasonable to me Doc.

I just want to help slant the results so I can be deemed the baddest man in the land when it comes to picking underdogs. My plan sucks so I am going to sip some coca cola from my goblet with my pinky raised ... hee hee ....

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

I didn't know there was gonna be math involved.........no seriously it looks reasonable to me Doc.

I just want to help slant the results so I can be deemed the baddest man in the land when it comes to picking underdogs. My plan sucks so I am going to sip some coca cola from my goblet with my pinky raised ... hee hee ....

Damn, great inside joke there man. Timmmmmmaaaaaaay!!


And sorry, but you can't claim baddest without Pe playing.

 

[drdiags]

This should spur some thoughts

.NET handicapper	# of Picks	Correct Covers	Missed Covers	Correct Outright	Missed Outright	RD Factor
Polaris	7	1	2	2	2	1.50
SonicHawk	6	1	1	2	2	0.75
12th_Bob	5	1	0	1	3	0.00
DrDiags	5	0	2	2	1	-1.25
BFS	2	0	0	0	2	-2.00
seahawkfan80	4	2	2	0	0	-2.00
hawksfansinceday1	5	1	2	1	1	-2.50
E.C. Laloosh	6	0	0	1	5	-3.75
Erebus	3	0	1	0	2	-4.00
chris98251	4	0	0	0	4	-4.00
Kakaww	4	0	0	0	4	-4.00
AbsolutNET	6	1	3	1	1	-5.00
RolandDeschain	5	1	2	0	2	-6.25
IcedHawk	10	2	2	1	5	-8.75
davidonmi	8	1	4	1	2	-8.75

 

[chris98251]

Damn I'm at 100 percent !!!!

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Middle of the pack. That's why I almost never win betting football in Nevada. Oh well, if at first you don't succeed.......This is fun and I'm really glad you kept it going Doc. And even better that you came up with a system to place us. And a damn good system it is, weighting correct picks and number of picks to make it balanced. God there are some smart people on these boards and you're one man.