Who to cheer for this week! (Week 15)

[byau]

Sorting through the various topics, trying to figure out who all to cheer for this week regarding playoff implications affecting our Hawks. I could for the most part gather the info. Thought it'd be good for simple heads like me just to put it out there a bit more directly.

By the way, for those that follow these things more closely I hope you correct me where I'm wrong

And in fact, for those that follow these things closely please feel free to pick this up next week and the last few weeks so simple heads like me don't get headaches trying to put this together I know I would appreciate seeing this kind of thing each week and a bunch of others would too! (Polaris? JonRud? Any of the awesome contributors in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=102866 ?)

Cardinals @ Rams: CHEER FOR RAMS:
We want Arizona to get a few more losses so Seahawks clinch NFCW

Steelers @ Falcons: CHEER FOR FALCONS:
Good rule of thumb: cheer for an AFC team in an AFC vs NFC ... unless they're the Steelers

Redskins @ Giants: DOESN'T MATTER,
both NFC teams are cellar dwellars in the NFC East. Cheer for Odell Beckham Jr. cuz that guy rocks

Dolphins @ Patriots: DOESN'T MATTER,
AFC vs AFC

Raiders @ Chiefs: CHEER FOR RAIDERS.
AFC vs AFC doesn't affect us much. Good rule of thumb, if a team is playing that has beaten us, cheer for that team to be beat. Also, if they Raiders win maybe it'll spark more rumors about the 49ers trading Harbaugh to the Raiders. Because we want the Raiders to at least have some potential of being a good team that Harbaugh would want to take over. So winning a game or two these last few weeks so the media can think they're a team with good potential might keep those rumors going. The more doubt circulating the 49ers, the better until the 49ers are out

Texans @ Colts: DOESN'T MATTER
AFC vs AFC

Bengals @ Browns: DOESN'T MATTER
AFC vs AFC.

Jaguars @ Ravens: CHEER FOR JAGUARS
AFC vs AFC, but the Jaguars are like our little brothers

Packers @ Bills: CHEER FOR ..DA BILLS
Please Packers lose a game to help the Hawks get the #1 seed in the NFC

Bucs @ Panthers: YOUR CHOICE
Depends on who you want to win the NFC South: Falcons, Saints, or Panthers. One of those 3 will be in the playoffs. The team that I fear out of those 3 the most are the Saints if they finally get rolling. So for me I'd say Panthers to win the NFC South. So I'd cheer for the Panthers. Another criteria: for strength of record you should also cheer for the Panthers.

Jets @ Titans: DOESN'T MATTER
AFC vs AFC, and two 2-11 teams. I guess we'd cheer a certain way to make sure our conditional pick trade with the Jets works out for the better, but I don't know which way that would be. Anyone? I guess cheer for Breno

Broncos @ Chargers: CHEER FOR BRONCOS
AFC vs AFC. It doesn't matter much, but cheer for the team that we have beaten, and cheer against the team that has beaten us for strength of record.

Vikings @ Lions: CHEER FOR VIKINGS (but with some reservation)
I'm not sure about this one. It's a bit tricky. The NFC contender Lions are knocking on the door step of the NFC North. If the Packers lose and the Lions win, they both have 10-4 records. We own the tie-breaker over the Packers, so I'm not sure if this is consequential or not except that I read somewhere about the Hawks lose the tiebreaker against the Cowboys, but in a 3-way tie of Lions, Cowboys, and Seahawks, the Hawks win. If that's right, then we want the Lions to win so they can at least keep pace with the Packers and Cowboys. But we don't want them to be too far up so the Seahawks still have a good shot at a playoff spot and the #1 seed. So to simplify things, I want all the NFC contenders to lose. So it's a bit dicey here depending on how everything else plays out. So you can definitely make a case for cheering for the Lions because the Hawks beat them in a tiebreaker.

49ers @ Seahawks: GOOOOOOO HAAAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cowboys @ Eagles: CHEER FOR EAGLES
We want the Cowboys to take a step back

Saints @ Bears: YOUR CHOICE
Depends on who you want to win the NFC South: Falcons, Saints, or Panthers. One of those 3 will be in the playoffs. The team that I fear out of those 3 the most are the Saints if they finally get rolling. So for me I'd say Panthers to win the NFC South. So I'd cheer for the Bears

For those that know these things better, any corrections? Did I get them pretty well?

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Seems like you covered it. Except for rooting for the Steelers, like Dallas that should never happen.

 

[halps80]

One thing I'd adjust - when there are no other clear implications, always root for a team we beat vs a team we didn't play or lost to, to inflate our strength of victory, just in case.

This would apply in Raiders/Chiefs, Broncos/Chargers, and Pathers/Bucs.

 

[byau]

One thing I'd adjust - when there are no other clear implications, always root for a team we beat vs a team we didn't play or lost to, to inflate our strength of victory, just in case.

This would apply in Raiders/Chiefs, Broncos/Chargers, and Pathers/Bucs.

Thanks man. Curious: does strength of victory matter for an AFC vs AFC matchup? I'm guessing if that matters in the SB matchup for HFA, but that's HFA on a neutral site. I'm guessing I missed something?

Or is strength of victory over AFC teams a tiebreaker when it comes to NFC seeding?

 

[Jeremy517]

Steelers @ Falcons: CHEER FOR STEELERS:
Always cheer for an AFC team in an AFC vs NFC

Saints @ Bears: YOUR CHOICE
Depends on who you want to win the NFC South: Falcons, Saints, or Panthers. One of those 3 will be in the playoffs. The team that I fear out of those 3 the most are the Saints if they finally get rolling. So for me I'd say Panthers to win the NFC South. So I'd cheer for the Bears

If you fear the Saints the most out of the NFCS teams, you should root for the Falcons. It would be different if the Falcons were in the wildcard race, but since they're not, you should root for them.

 

[Cartire]

The Lions game is tricky.

If they take the north by winning out, the highest GB could be is 12-4 (which is very possible). That would mean that if AZ maintains the West, and we get shoved into a Wild Card race, we'll be at most, 11 wins. This means the #6 seed at most.

I think at this point, we have to hope for GB to take the north (but still drop a game to lose their seed) and Detroit to just fall out from here.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=101664&p=1483265&hilit=Strength+of+schedule+seeding#p1483265

NFL website wrote:Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

*Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
*Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
*Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
*Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
*Strength of victory.
*Strength of schedule.
*Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
*Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
*Best net points in conference games.
*Best net points in all games.
*Best net touchdowns in all games.
*Coin toss


FYI

 

[Missing_Clink]

So am I right in thinking that we want the Eagles to win the NFC East if the Seahawks win the NFC West, but we want the Cowboys to win the NFC East if the Seahawks lose to the Cards or something and end up in the wild card race? Either way we don't want to end up competing for division champs seeding or wild card seeding with the Cowboys because they have the head-to-head win

 

[Polaris]

I mostly agree with the OP except that:

1. Raiders vs Chiefs is AFC vs AFC and doesn't affect us (except strength of schedule as noted above).

2. I agree that normally you'd want to root for the Vikings, but this is an exception. We want the Lions to win. Why? In the first place a Lions win along with our own eliminates at least two rival NFCW teams from the playoffs altogether. In the second place, assuming we win out, the best the Lions can do is win out and have an Identical Record....and if they do they will tie with us for 12-4 records and we beat the Lions on the tiebreak (esp if it's a three way tiebreak).

 

[JonRud]

Great post. it's not all clear cut with 3 weeks to go but I am going under the assumption that the Hawks will win out.

In that case how do we get the #1 seed?

Bottom line is we need GB to lose a game (at Buf, at TB, vs. Det). In that case I would like to see if the Lions can remain a game back of GB for the Week 17 Showdown Detroit at GB. If Detroit has major incentive in that game maybe they can pull it out. If they are already locked into a wildcard and can't win the Division they probably don't win.

Therefore I think I'm rooting for the Lions this week so they stay alive for the NFC North title even though we can possibly be in contention with them for a playoff spot or seeding.

I also agree with some other posters to root against the Steelers no matter what. I am probably rooting for the Falcons to win the NFC South because they would have the best chance to take out Dallas/Philly, Arizona or Detroit in a wildcard game at home. They would be a favorite over Arizona.

If we can get the #1 seed and the two home teams win on wildcard weekend we could possibly have the Falcons come to Seattle in the Divisional round. How sweet would that be!

 

[JonRud]

So am I right in thinking that we want the Eagles to win the NFC East if the Seahawks win the NFC West, but we want the Cowboys to win the NFC East if the Seahawks lose to the Cards or something and end up in the wild card race? Either way we don't want to end up competing for division champs seeding or wild card seeding with the Cowboys because they have the head-to-head win

Correctamundo.

 

[KitsapGuy]

NFC

CLINCHED: None

ELIMINATED: Giants, Redskins, Bears, Buccaneers

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Arizona clinches a playoff spot:

1. ARI win + DAL/PHI game does not end in a tie

2. ARI win + DET loss + ARI clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over GB

3. ARI win + DET loss + GB win or tie

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:

1. GB win + DAL loss + GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL

 

[byau]

Seems like you covered it. Except for rooting for the Steelers, like Dallas that should never happen.

Steelers @ Falcons: CHEER FOR STEELERS:
Always cheer for an AFC team in an AFC vs NFC

 

[A London Hawk]

"Raiders @ Chiefs: CHEER FOR RAIDERS."

I'll be cheering for the Chiefs, I want to see Smith in the playoffs, just cos.

"Texans @ Colts: DOESN'T MATTER"

Colts already have the refs cheering for them, I'm going Texans.

 

[Timberhawk]

I love this!! Awesome job and thanks!!

On Bengals Vs. Browns: I would say Bengals as they are up on the Stealers and I would love for the Stealers to at least not win the division if not fall out of the playoffs completely.

 

[byau]

"Raiders @ Chiefs: CHEER FOR RAIDERS."

I'll be cheering for the Chiefs, I want to see Smith in the playoffs, just cos.

Ha, just like me rooting for the Raiders because I think it will cause more turmoil to the 49ers/Raiders Harbaugh trade rumor. Just kind of out there for my own personal liking

"Texans @ Colts: DOESN'T MATTER"

Colts already have the refs cheering for them, I'm going Texans.

I like JJ Watt so from a non-playoff perspective I'd root for the Texans too.

 

[halps80]

halps80 wrote:
One thing I'd adjust - when there are no other clear implications, always root for a team we beat vs a team we didn't play or lost to, to inflate our strength of victory, just in case.

This would apply in Raiders/Chiefs, Broncos/Chargers, and Pathers/Bucs.


Thanks man. Curious: does strength of victory matter for an AFC vs AFC matchup? I'm guessing if that matters in the SB matchup for HFA, but that's HFA on a neutral site. I'm guessing I missed something?

Or is strength of victory over AFC teams a tiebreaker when it comes to NFC seeding?

Strength of victory is simply the avg winning pct of all of the teams you've defeated, regardless of conference. It's deep in the tiebreak procedure, but it has decided wild cards and seedings in the past.

 

[Timmahawk]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl ... ostseason/

Great resource on how each game effects our playoff odds.

Ironically, our making the playoffs odds increase with a Dallas win, but our top seed/bye odds increase with an Eagles win. I think we win out, so Go Philly.

 

[RunTheBall]

I mostly agree with the OP except that:

1. Raiders vs Chiefs is AFC vs AFC and doesn't affect us (except strength of schedule as noted above).

2. I agree that normally you'd want to root for the Vikings, but this is an exception. We want the Lions to win. Why? In the first place a Lions win along with our own eliminates at least two rival NFCW teams from the playoffs altogether. In the second place, assuming we win out, the best the Lions can do is win out and have an Identical Record....and if they do they will tie with us for 12-4 records and we beat the Lions on the tiebreak (esp if it's a three way tiebreak).

LOL @#2. We want the Lions to lose, the Niners and/or Rams aren't making the playoffs if we win out, we 100% want the Lions, Cowboys and Packers all to lose on Sunday. We own the tie-breaker on the Eagles, Packers and Lions. A lions loss makes it impossible for the Seahawks to miss the playoffs at 11-5.

 

[rideaducati]

"Raiders @ Chiefs: CHEER FOR RAIDERS."

I'll be cheering for the Chiefs, I want to see Smith in the playoffs, just cos.

"Texans @ Colts: DOESN'T MATTER"

Colts already have the refs cheering for them, I'm going Texans.

Almost as exciting as watching paint dry...almost.