kearly
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Obviously, there are a lot of options on the table for Seattle. It's not Sammy Coates or bust. I could make a very strong case for a half dozen WRs at various points in the second round. And heck, they could draft a decent OL at #63 if they wanted, or draft something else entirely.
But as the draft gets closer, my instincts have been pulling me more and more in the direction of Coates. This post is basically my attempt to rationalize these instincts.
First off, Seattle almost never drafts the guy that everyone is talking about with their first pick. There has been a couple of threads here on Coates in the past, but outside of .net, Seattle has been linked a lot more to guys like DGB or Conley. While it's true that Seattle gave Christine Michael a visit in 2013, it's very much the norm for them to not give visits to their eventual first or second round picks. Their silence on Coates despite his obvious fit here is telling, I think.
So why Coates? Well, I'll put it this way. Put aside your micro analyzing scouting mind for only a moment, and just look at Coates run down the field. Forget the details, look at the guy. If you knew nothing else about him, you'd think you were looking at a Dez Bryant type specimen. Now granted, details DO matter, but the gist of Coates is that he has Dez Bryant's body without Dez Bryant's results. Not yet, anyway. Past history suggests that Seattle weighs heavily towards pure upside when looking at prospects.
What does Seattle need in the passing game? They already have Jimmy Graham. Between Graham and Baldwin, Seattle is more than set at the slot position. Richardson won't contribute a ton next season, but when healthy he's shown himself to be an ace short yardage WR with the tools needed to achieve Emmanuel Sanders type efficiency. Norwood has looked good enough on short stuff. In the slot and in the short passing game, Seattle is in very good shape both short term and long term.
Where Seattle is weak is outside WR. They currently only have one red line threat who is worth trusting on deep sideline throws, Jermaine Kearse, and he's probably gone next year. And while Kearse has a sneaky big build, he's not going to be confused with a #1 WR physically, or otherwise. What Seattle needs is a big WR, probably 6'2" or above, with good speed, good physicality, and good high point ability. A guy that's tough to press and tough to cover deep. The problem is, these kinds of WRs are usually top 25 picks, unless something is seriously wrong with them.
There are two issues for WRs where Seattle tends to care less about them than other teams might: hands and usage.
Seattle has a well established history of targeting pass catchers with drop issues. Kearse, Durham, Harper, and at TE, Helfet and Willson. Even Paul Richardson had some drop issues in college from time to time, and Tate, who had great hands, had an unconventional catching style that caused some doubts.
The other is usage and production. Lockette, Harper, Durham, and Willson saw very little action in college and were typically one trick pony types when they did see the ball.
And since Seattle is already mostly set inside, they are actually okay with getting a WR who makes a living like DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace. They don't need a complete WR, just get a guy who is awesome at catching passes 50 yards down the sideline or over the deep middle. And if he develops into a complete WR later, great.
As an added bonus, it would be nice if this WR could run after the catch too.
We all know John Schneider is loathe to trade up. Even with a mountain of opportunity in the early to mid 2nd round at WR, you know that JS would probably rather take his 10th rated WR at #63 than his 8th rated WR at say #43. It all depends if he feels confident that THE RIGHT GUY is still going to be there at #63 or not. We all remember JS holding firm at #60 in 2010 and then rushing to the podium for Golden Tate. That's what JS dreams of doing when his head hits the pillow tonight.
So what is this imaginary best case scenario at WR? Get an outside WR with good size and speed, a guy that looks ilke a 1st round pick both physically and in terms of combine performance. If Dez Bryant were in this draft, of course you'd want him at #63, but it would never happen. Something has gotta give, there have got to be flaws that cause this player to fall, and those flaws would need to fit Seattle's acceptable flaws list.
Coates physically resembles Dez Bryant despite being about an inch and a half shorter. He is only 6'1", but ranked 1st among all WRs for bench press, 4th for vertical, 3rd for broad jump, 2nd for 20 yard shuttle, but only 15th for 3 cone. He ran a 4.43 forty, which is relatively impressive for a 6'1", 212 pound WR. While it's true that Coates isn't as tall as a prototypical #1, he has the look and effectiveness down the field of a big #1 WR. On tape, he has no problem blowing by SEC defenders. He averaged over 21 yards per reception (!) at Auburn for his CAREER (!). But he only managed 76 total receptions his last two seasons combined.
As the measurements and stats indicate, Coates is a one trick pony who just happens to be extremely good at the one thing Seattle needs extremely badly.
Add in the fact that Coates has issues with drops, and his draft stock is currently projected to be late 2nd or early 3rd, despite having the tools of a high pick. But remember, Seattle is okay with college drops. They feel this is something they can coach up to a degree.
Going back to that imaginary best case scenario. Coates checks every box. He fits what they need, his issues are the kind that don't bother Seattle, he's going to be good value at #63 while being realistic to last that long, and his upside is very high. Even if his sparq-monster numbers don't turn him into another Dez Bryant, Seattle could definitely use a Martavis Bryant type, and Coates could easily achieve that level of performance for Seattle.
Failing all else, Sammy Coates can beat fringe NFL corners deep with ease and he runs very well after the catch. Pete Carroll can make use of those skills.
This doesn't mean that Coates is the guy *I* would plan my 2nd round around getting, but of all the 'stay put' options at #63, Sammy Coates leaps off the page. And I think JS would prefer to stay put.
But as the draft gets closer, my instincts have been pulling me more and more in the direction of Coates. This post is basically my attempt to rationalize these instincts.
First off, Seattle almost never drafts the guy that everyone is talking about with their first pick. There has been a couple of threads here on Coates in the past, but outside of .net, Seattle has been linked a lot more to guys like DGB or Conley. While it's true that Seattle gave Christine Michael a visit in 2013, it's very much the norm for them to not give visits to their eventual first or second round picks. Their silence on Coates despite his obvious fit here is telling, I think.
So why Coates? Well, I'll put it this way. Put aside your micro analyzing scouting mind for only a moment, and just look at Coates run down the field. Forget the details, look at the guy. If you knew nothing else about him, you'd think you were looking at a Dez Bryant type specimen. Now granted, details DO matter, but the gist of Coates is that he has Dez Bryant's body without Dez Bryant's results. Not yet, anyway. Past history suggests that Seattle weighs heavily towards pure upside when looking at prospects.
What does Seattle need in the passing game? They already have Jimmy Graham. Between Graham and Baldwin, Seattle is more than set at the slot position. Richardson won't contribute a ton next season, but when healthy he's shown himself to be an ace short yardage WR with the tools needed to achieve Emmanuel Sanders type efficiency. Norwood has looked good enough on short stuff. In the slot and in the short passing game, Seattle is in very good shape both short term and long term.
Where Seattle is weak is outside WR. They currently only have one red line threat who is worth trusting on deep sideline throws, Jermaine Kearse, and he's probably gone next year. And while Kearse has a sneaky big build, he's not going to be confused with a #1 WR physically, or otherwise. What Seattle needs is a big WR, probably 6'2" or above, with good speed, good physicality, and good high point ability. A guy that's tough to press and tough to cover deep. The problem is, these kinds of WRs are usually top 25 picks, unless something is seriously wrong with them.
There are two issues for WRs where Seattle tends to care less about them than other teams might: hands and usage.
Seattle has a well established history of targeting pass catchers with drop issues. Kearse, Durham, Harper, and at TE, Helfet and Willson. Even Paul Richardson had some drop issues in college from time to time, and Tate, who had great hands, had an unconventional catching style that caused some doubts.
The other is usage and production. Lockette, Harper, Durham, and Willson saw very little action in college and were typically one trick pony types when they did see the ball.
And since Seattle is already mostly set inside, they are actually okay with getting a WR who makes a living like DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace. They don't need a complete WR, just get a guy who is awesome at catching passes 50 yards down the sideline or over the deep middle. And if he develops into a complete WR later, great.
As an added bonus, it would be nice if this WR could run after the catch too.
We all know John Schneider is loathe to trade up. Even with a mountain of opportunity in the early to mid 2nd round at WR, you know that JS would probably rather take his 10th rated WR at #63 than his 8th rated WR at say #43. It all depends if he feels confident that THE RIGHT GUY is still going to be there at #63 or not. We all remember JS holding firm at #60 in 2010 and then rushing to the podium for Golden Tate. That's what JS dreams of doing when his head hits the pillow tonight.
So what is this imaginary best case scenario at WR? Get an outside WR with good size and speed, a guy that looks ilke a 1st round pick both physically and in terms of combine performance. If Dez Bryant were in this draft, of course you'd want him at #63, but it would never happen. Something has gotta give, there have got to be flaws that cause this player to fall, and those flaws would need to fit Seattle's acceptable flaws list.
Coates physically resembles Dez Bryant despite being about an inch and a half shorter. He is only 6'1", but ranked 1st among all WRs for bench press, 4th for vertical, 3rd for broad jump, 2nd for 20 yard shuttle, but only 15th for 3 cone. He ran a 4.43 forty, which is relatively impressive for a 6'1", 212 pound WR. While it's true that Coates isn't as tall as a prototypical #1, he has the look and effectiveness down the field of a big #1 WR. On tape, he has no problem blowing by SEC defenders. He averaged over 21 yards per reception (!) at Auburn for his CAREER (!). But he only managed 76 total receptions his last two seasons combined.
As the measurements and stats indicate, Coates is a one trick pony who just happens to be extremely good at the one thing Seattle needs extremely badly.
Add in the fact that Coates has issues with drops, and his draft stock is currently projected to be late 2nd or early 3rd, despite having the tools of a high pick. But remember, Seattle is okay with college drops. They feel this is something they can coach up to a degree.
Going back to that imaginary best case scenario. Coates checks every box. He fits what they need, his issues are the kind that don't bother Seattle, he's going to be good value at #63 while being realistic to last that long, and his upside is very high. Even if his sparq-monster numbers don't turn him into another Dez Bryant, Seattle could definitely use a Martavis Bryant type, and Coates could easily achieve that level of performance for Seattle.
Failing all else, Sammy Coates can beat fringe NFL corners deep with ease and he runs very well after the catch. Pete Carroll can make use of those skills.
This doesn't mean that Coates is the guy *I* would plan my 2nd round around getting, but of all the 'stay put' options at #63, Sammy Coates leaps off the page. And I think JS would prefer to stay put.
