Why I think Seattle will probably win Super Bowl 48

[themunn]

Manning gets the ball out quicker than anybody else because of timing with his receivers.

Our cornerbacks shut that time down long enough for our pressure to get there. We might not get many sacks on him, but he'll definitely take a few big hits

 

[chris98251]

If the weather is in the low 30's and or upper 20's the passing game will be less effective, heavy ball and a hard ball are both harder to catch and throw. Additionally that turf if not underheated like Green Bay gets real hard, many may not think much of this but when your a older player and are hit and knocked down that Turf seems to get harder and harder as the game goes along.

Where Manning doesn't throw a hard ball typically such as lets say Kaep or a Farve type, it's effect will be noticed in his grip and the revolution of the ball in flight. Also catching the ball yyou are catching a harder surface, makes it seem almost slicked up becasue there is less give when you try to catch with fingers or just hands.

All this really means I guess is we use the passing game to keep people honest and to take advantage of situations, we like to eat clock and grind out yardage on the ground. The passing issues will not effect us as adversly, I have not even included a possible windy situation that could happen.

 

[seedhawk]

Peyton and the Bronks are gonna get their yards and some points. Why I like the Hawks chances are 3 fold. First, our big Db's match up well and, we TACKLE well. Not too many YAC for Denver.

Second, our run game and our D travel well and always show up.

Third, we have not been beated in 2 years by more than 7 points. Every game is a one score affair. The Bronks? We know how to win UGLY!

 

[SHOCKER315]

Its pretty simple to me.

Broncos over the last 2 games scored 26 and 24 points at home (in perfect weather) vs the #10 and #11 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the #1 D? Likely less right?

On the other hand the Hawks scored 23 points at home, (one game in a raining windstorm), vs the #3 and #4 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the Denver D who is #22? Likely more right?

28-21 Seahawks if weather is perfect.

If crappy windy weather, it will be even more lopsided for Seattle. :icon_new:

 

[Laloosh]

Nobody answered my question. Must be a stupid question. Oh well, someone answer it anyway. Lot of beer went into it...

 

[Sarlacc83]

When Seattle goes up against a mediocre to bad defense, the points start to accumulate. They could have easily put 50 on the bad teams this year, but they got their starters out of the game. Seattle will have plenty of success running the ball (after Lynch got 100 against SF, do you think he's scared of Denver's front 7?) which will keep Manning off the field. This will further disrupt the rhythm of the Denver offense. If Denver isn't careful, this could well turn into a blowout.

 

[amill87]

There's a whole other thread about it, but Sando did a 'draft' of all the players for both teams.

Seattle had 8 in the top 10. Denver's defense had 2 in the top 30.

Seattle is more talented across the board. Even a Denver fan would be hard pressed to say anything other than the only positions the Broncos are better at are QB, TE, and WR. Might throw in o-line but I think both o-lines are about average. Seahawks hold the advantage at every other position including specialists.

Like you mentioned, Kearly, the Saints and Broncos are similar in the Saints hold the same position advantages over the Hawks. The closest Denver came to playing a team that has similar position advantages against them is Kansas City.

Using DVOA, The Hawks are ranked 27.8 higher than Kansas City on defense. The Broncos are ranked 9.7 higher than the Saints on offense.

I'm not entirely sure where to find it, but I would be curious to see how the corners the Broncos have faced rank. I know Sherman and Maxwell are ranked as the top two. But I wonder where say Brandon Flowers falls. Is he better than Thurmond? I don't have the rankings or stats to back it up at the moment but I don't think it's too far off to say the best corner the Broncos have played is probably pretty close to our 3rd Corner.

The Broncos win one way and they do it really good. They win because Manning throws all over the place. Can they really win a game where he doesn't? Can they copy the second Saints gameplan and run the ball?

Call me biased. Call me a homer. But at this point, it's an upset if the Broncos win. The Hawks are the better overall team. DVOA shows it. The eye test shows it. The conference and division they played in shows it.

 

[chrispy]

We have to remember that the Bronco lurkers don't know kearly. To inform, his history of analysis, his spot-on draft picks/prediction, his game predictions have been amazing. And his in-depth post-game dissection consistently shows up accurately in his next prediction. It's absolutely true that anyone can massage stats to make a point. However, kearly has been showing us (for several years) how looking at the right stats, with the right perspective, can give a surprisingly accurate picture. I'm sure my opinion is pretty easy to pick apart. It's pretty fun for me to watch unknowing challengers walk into a disagreement with kearly.

 

[Spokanefan]

Its pretty simple to me.

Broncos over the last 2 games scored 26 and 24 points at home vs the #10 and #11 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the #1 D? Likely less right?

On the other hand the Hawks scored 23 points at home vs the #3 and #4 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the denver D who is #22? Likely more right?

28-21 Seahawks.

EXACTLY RIGHT! In Denver, in 50+ degree weather, against a NE defense ranked 10th overall & 18th against the pass during the regular season (and then losing Talib during the game), Manning puts up only 26 points? What will he do against the #1 overall defense and #1 passing defense, on the east coast, and in the cold? I'll be surprised if Denver scores more than 20.

My pick - 27-14, Seahawks, and more for us if Percy actually plays the whole game....

 

[DrDix]

The Seahawks will win because the Broncos have no idea what's in store for them. They will not handle the intensity and physicality the defense plays with.

 

[morgulon1]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

How would you say they've called it for dbs thus far in the playoffs? I think it tends to lean toward "let them play". Regarding "ifs and buts", he's provided opinion. In what way was "this is opinion" not clearly implied? Aside from the stats he was looking at and his opinion, where else can anyone go with it? Should he have based everything on the preseason game? You know, the only tangible thing to really illustrate how the two teams might match up?

With regard to special teams (in your 2nd post). Denver has started with worse field position (on average) but have scored at a much higher rate. Doesn't say anything about whether or not SEA instantly gains an advantage in the return game for example, by the return of oh, the most explosive return guy in the game does it?

Great points Kearly, I agree with your assesments and feel that our LBrs when asked to cover crossing routes will be an especially
important aspect in this matchup. If Bennett , McDonald and whom ever they have inside can have a great day generating pressure
up the middle of the field, we win this game convincingly. Mr Manning isn't the most agile qb at this stage in his career and will
obviously try to flee to the left or right to avoid pressure,hopfully into the waiting arms of or edge rushers.

Oh and Milehighfish......

This is a Seahawk fan board. Youll only get so much Denver love in here ( and Kearly gave you a lot).

 

[Hawks46]

I'm worried about Peyton marching the field on us because we can't get enough pressure. Yes the secondary is the strength of our team but even though the pass rush is pretty good the Broncos pass protection is amazing and Peyton is fast with the football. You can have 5 Richard Shermans out there but there needs to be a rush or it makes no difference. My biggest fear is we start the game giving up 2-3 long TD drives and the defense is immediately gassed. Flame away but I hope i'm wrong.

Manning will complete a lot of passes and convert a lot of 3rd downs. But when he does score, it's going to be on 15 play drives. He won't be driving the ball down the field on that secondary. Even elite QBs with much better arms have been afraid of doing so (Rodgers, Brady, Brees) the last couple years, and remember that this game will be played in freezing conditions, possibly in snow. Nobody can take what's given better than Manning. I'm not predicting a blowout.

But it's extremely hard to score 30 with a dink and dunk game plan, even if executed masterfully. It can be done, but no team has beaten Seattle with such an approach the last couple seasons. Brees, Brady, and Rodgers are 0-4 against Seattle. Toss in the preseason games with Manning and Rodgers and it goes up to 0-7.

When Brees tried to do this, there were a lot of 3 and out's, with literally 3 passes.

I haven't watched all the Broncos games, nor have I analyzed the all 22 tape, but I've seen some of this team. The majority of your larger plays (through the air) have been to the TE down the seams. Manning doesn't have the arm to challenge Earl Thomas (our FS) in the middle. In fact, almost no one has done that this year.

Most of the big pass plays Denver has had were short passes that gained a lot of YAC. Seattle's defensive backfield allows the least YAC of any defense. We keep you in front of us, and stop you cold.

Manning gets the ball out fast to avoid pressure. Our defense is great at stopping short passes, intercepting short passes, or limiting YAC. We also disrupt routes and hold up WRs at the line of scrimmage. This is going to give us a second or two extra on the pass rush. That could make a difference. YOu don't have to get to Manning every time, just make him reset his feet.

Denver's run game is opened up via the pass. Our run game is opened up through downed bodies and beat up LBers.

All I'm saying Denver fans; our strength matches up well with your strength. Historically that favors the defense. And Denver hasn't seen anything even close to our level of physicality.

 

[BadGuy711]

The Seahawks will win because the Broncos have no idea what's in store for them. They will not handle the intensity and physicality the defense plays with.

The Broncos will be prepared, and will know what they're in store for. Whether they can handle it is another question.

Bronco Fans however, are the ones who are going to be shocked. 2 years of the media over all Manning's jock and beating up average defences, coupled with not much Seattle coverage in that neck of the woods....means the majority of them probably will be convinced a cakewalk is waiting. The LOB will shatter that dream quickly IMO.

 

[amill87]

The Seahawks will win because the Broncos have no idea what's in store for them. They will not handle the intensity and physicality the defense plays with.

The Broncos will be prepared, and will know what they're in store for. Whether they can handle it is another question.

Bronco Fans however, are the ones who are going to be shocked. 2 years of the media over all Manning's jock and beating up average defences, coupled with not much Seattle coverage in that neck of the woods....means the majority of them probably will be convinced a cakewalk is waiting. The LOB will shatter that dream quickly IMO.

I think there is validity to that. Fans and media just don't understand how good the Hawks defense is because let's face it, defense isn't sexy. We don't have the #1 defense of all time but we are in the conversation.

I work with a Steeler's fan and his words on Monday were this: "If you guys play like that vs the Broncos, Manning will wipe the floor with you". I reminded him that the Hawks defense is extremely good and he said "The Broncos and Hawks defenses are almost the same". He was dead serious. He just has no idea about what the Hawks do because what they do isn't as flashy as the Broncos or the Niners.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

.........I haven't watched all the Broncos games, nor have I analyzed the all 22 tape, but I've seen some of this team. The majority of your larger plays (through the air) have been to the TE down the seams. Manning doesn't have the arm to challenge Earl Thomas (our FS) in the middle. In fact, almost no one has done that this year.

Most of the big pass plays Denver has had were short passes that gained a lot of YAC. Seattle's defensive backfield allows the least YAC of any defense. We keep you in front of us, and stop you cold.

Manning gets the ball out fast to avoid pressure. Our defense is great at stopping short passes, intercepting short passes, or limiting YAC. We also disrupt routes and hold up WRs at the line of scrimmage. This is going to give us a second or two extra on the pass rush. That could make a difference. YOu don't have to get to Manning every time, just make him reset his feet......

This is the biggest reason I think the Hawks win. We will limit their YAC and his arm strength is not good enough to beat ET and Co. deep in good weather let alone if there is some wind. If the wind is blowing much they will try to run Knoshawn a lot and I don't think that will work well for them.

 

[falcongoggles]

The Seahawks will win because the Broncos have no idea what's in store for them. They will not handle the intensity and physicality the defense plays with.

The Broncos will be prepared, and will know what they're in store for. Whether they can handle it is another question.

Bronco Fans however, are the ones who are going to be shocked. 2 years of the media over all Manning's jock and beating up average defences, coupled with not much Seattle coverage in that neck of the woods....means the majority of them probably will be convinced a cakewalk is waiting. The LOB will shatter that dream quickly IMO.

I think there is validity to that. Fans and media just don't understand how good the Hawks defense is because let's face it, defense isn't sexy. We don't have the #1 defense of all time but we are in the conversation.

I work with a Steeler's fan and his words on Monday were this: "If you guys play like that vs the Broncos, Manning will wipe the floor with you". I reminded him that the Hawks defense is extremely good and he said "The Broncos and Hawks defenses are almost the same". He was dead serious. He just has no idea about what the Hawks do because what they do isn't as flashy as the Broncos or the Niners.

This douche knuckle probably thinks SB XL* was cleanly officiated.

 

[amill87]

I think there is validity to that. Fans and media just don't understand how good the Hawks defense is because let's face it, defense isn't sexy. We don't have the #1 defense of all time but we are in the conversation.

I work with a Steeler's fan and his words on Monday were this: "If you guys play like that vs the Broncos, Manning will wipe the floor with you". I reminded him that the Hawks defense is extremely good and he said "The Broncos and Hawks defenses are almost the same". He was dead serious. He just has no idea about what the Hawks do because what they do isn't as flashy as the Broncos or the Niners.

This douche knuckle probably thinks SB XL* was cleanly officiated.

He's actually a pretty cool dude and isn't proud of how XL went down.

The point I was getting at is outside of Seahawk fans, not many know much about the team. They don't know how good this defense is. They get on NFL.com and compare Wilson vs Manning and think no way we can win.

We all know the media doesn't help this because they do the same thing. Trey Wingo was on 710 today and said that it is unlikely that our offense can score 29 points vs the Broncos when we just scored 23 vs the #3 and #4 defenses.

Offense is sexy. People automatically give the team with better offenses the edge. Everyone is a slave to the moment, noone remembers all the times the defensive teams win the Super Bowl (like the last time the QB who broke the TD record played in a super bowl). I think defensive teams have a reputation of being lucky or flukey. Just like Kearly said, defensive teams specialize in making games ugly.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

...........The point I was getting at is outside of Seahawk fans, not many know much about the team. They don't know how good this defense is. They get on NFL.com and compare Wilson vs Manning and think no way we can win.

We all know the media doesn't help this because they do the same thing. Trey Wingo was on 710 today and said that it is unlikely that our offense can score 29 points vs the Broncos when we just scored 23 vs the #3 and #4 defenses.

Offense is sexy. People automatically give the team with better offenses the edge. Everyone is a slave to the moment, noone remembers all the times the defensive teams win the Super Bowl (like the last time the QB who broke the TD record played in a super bowl). I think defensive teams have a reputation of being lucky or flukey. Just like Kearly said, defensive teams specialize in making games ugly.

This is why the spread went from Hawks favored by 2 to Donkeys favored by 3 in very short order. The average and below average and casual football fans focus entirely on offense and QBs.

 

[Hendo66]

Hawks 34 - 27

 

[scutterhawk]

The Seahawks will win because the Broncos have no idea what's in store for them. They will not handle the intensity and physicality the defense plays with.

The Broncos will be prepared, and will know what they're in store for. Whether they can handle it is another question.

Bronco Fans however, are the ones who are going to be shocked. 2 years of the media over all Manning's jock and beating up average defences, coupled with not much Seattle coverage in that neck of the woods....means the majority of them probably will be convinced a cakewalk is waiting. The LOB will shatter that dream quickly IMO.

I think there is validity to that. Fans and media just don't understand how good the Hawks defense is because let's face it, defense isn't sexy. We don't have the #1 defense of all time but we are in the conversation.

I work with a Steeler's fan and his words on Monday were this: "If you guys play like that vs the Broncos, Manning will wipe the floor with you". I reminded him that the Hawks defense is extremely good and he said "The Broncos and Hawks defenses are almost the same". He was dead serious. He just has no idea about what the Hawks do because what they do isn't as flashy as the Broncos or the Niners.

Your co-worker is an uninformed idiot.
Seahawks Defense will dictate Bronko's timing and flow, and should the weather get nasty, Manning's passing will suffer.
Sherman has already lauded Peyton as one of the best in the business, but added ,"He throws some ducks" too.