Why I think Seattle will probably win Super Bowl 48

[Laloosh]

...........The point I was getting at is outside of Seahawk fans, not many know much about the team. They don't know how good this defense is. They get on NFL.com and compare Wilson vs Manning and think no way we can win.

We all know the media doesn't help this because they do the same thing. Trey Wingo was on 710 today and said that it is unlikely that our offense can score 29 points vs the Broncos when we just scored 23 vs the #3 and #4 defenses.

Offense is sexy. People automatically give the team with better offenses the edge. Everyone is a slave to the moment, noone remembers all the times the defensive teams win the Super Bowl (like the last time the QB who broke the TD record played in a super bowl). I think defensive teams have a reputation of being lucky or flukey. Just like Kearly said, defensive teams specialize in making games ugly.

This is why the spread went from Hawks favored by 2 to Donkeys favored by 3 in very short order. The average and below average and casual football fans focus entirely on offense and QBs.

They're not even doing that because if they did, they'd know that Russell is one of the top rated passers in the game.

I think it's more along the lines of hearing the local radio station or reading their local sports writer(s). They'll understand soon enough.

I had a few misconceptions about Denver until yesterday. It just comes from a lack of experience with them. I saw some games and a lot of highlights but yesterday I went and watched their games against NE and SD.

Manning will throw a LOT of very short yardage passes. They utilize bunch formations and trips to one side to get guys open. They went with 5 wide (4 left) just to throw a little smoke screen underneath and pick up 5 yards. Bunch left, three guys go vertical with a perfectly timed break back into the middle of 3 defenders for a 1st down.

It's likely to be frustrating to watch at times but if our defense stays disciplined, Manning will be forced to make throws that he doesn't want to. I saw it in the SD game. Manning does not want to take sacks and if you can get pressure, he'll force throws. Thing is, he's comfortable throwing into tight coverage so hopefully our guys can make a play or two to get the ball going the other direction.

SD tried press/man and they tried zone. He can throw at both but SD's corners aren't nearly as physical as our guys. They didn't disrupt routes, they just lined up, put hands on the receiver, turned and ran with them. No real push or shove inside of 5yds.

 

[letsgobroncos]

Its pretty simple to me.

Broncos over the last 2 games scored 26 and 24 points at home (in perfect weather) vs the #10 and #11 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the #1 D? Likely less right?

On the other hand the Hawks scored 23 points at home, (one game in a raining windstorm), vs the #3 and #4 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the Denver D who is #22? Likely more right?

28-21 Seahawks if weather is perfect.

If crappy windy weather, it will be even more lopsided for Seattle. :icon_new:

You do know that we have only punted 1 time in two playoff games right? Our point totals are a result of us putting long drives together. In the two games we have had 3 drives over 7 minutes long.

It will be a close game. Neither of these teams lost by more than a touchdown this year, and we haven't lost by more than a touchdown since Manning came to the Broncos.

 

[Largent80]

Get you punter warmed up.

Either that or get your offensive players ready to tackle, because what happened before matters NOT.

 

[doctorsubie]

I feel a lot better about the Seahawks' chances after reading this thread. I still have some concerns, however, mainly:

1) Our pass rush. Though we do get pressure on QBs, there seems to be periods where the pass rush disappears. I remember against the Saints' (playoff game) that Brees seemed to have an eternity to survey, but because of the pass coverage being so excellent, he had to throw it away or dink it down. What would happen if Peyton gets this much time?

2) Rotating our D-line. A strength has been our depth, especially at our D-line. How does Broncos' hurry up offense, which they run pretty much all the time, affect this? Do the Hawks keep trying to substitute, or just keep guys in for series? Do the Broncs make a point to work the middle of the field, and keep things in-bounds rather than running out of bounds, further hampering substitution patterns?

3) Is Russell Wilson going to have some Superbowl jitters? I'm sure he will, but I felt at the end of the 49ers game, he had several bobbles, including the hand-off fumble to Lynch...I'm hoping he also doesn't throw the ball high starting the game.

 

[SHOCKER315]

Its pretty simple to me.

Broncos over the last 2 games scored 26 and 24 points at home (in perfect weather) vs the #10 and #11 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the #1 D? Likely less right?

On the other hand the Hawks scored 23 points at home, (one game in a raining windstorm), vs the #3 and #4 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the Denver D who is #22? Likely more right?

28-21 Seahawks if weather is perfect.

If crappy windy weather, it will be even more lopsided for Seattle. :icon_new:

You do know that we have only punted 1 time in two playoff games right? Our point totals are a result of us putting long drives together. In the two games we have had 3 drives over 7 minutes long.

It will be a close game. Neither of these teams lost by more than a touchdown this year, and we haven't lost by more than a touchdown since Manning came to the Broncos.

Seattle hasn't lost by more than 7 since 2011. So the many uninformed Bronco fans predicting a Denver blowout are in for a rude awakening. Your post doesn't refute the fact the Seattle (with the addition of Harvin) will score more vs Denver then they did against much better NFC defenses. Denver will not score more vs Seattle than they did vs SD and NE.

Manning will rely on quick short passing dink and dunk style offense, due to weather, lack of arm strength, and Seattle's deep coverage ability.

Please see Drew Breeze (this year) and Tom Brady ( last year) for a good example of how that dink and dunk strategy will turn out (hint: see turnover differential and gifs below).

 

[ivotuk]

I feel a lot better about the Seahawks' chances after reading this thread. I still have some concerns, however, mainly:

1) Our pass rush. Though we do get pressure on QBs, there seems to be periods where the pass rush disappears. I remember against the Saints' (playoff game) that Brees seemed to have an eternity to survey, but because of the pass coverage being so excellent, he had to throw it away or dink it down. What would happen if Peyton gets this much time?

2) Rotating our D-line. A strength has been our depth, especially at our D-line. How does Broncos' hurry up offense, which they run pretty much all the time, affect this? Do the Hawks keep trying to substitute, or just keep guys in for series? Do the Broncs make a point to work the middle of the field, and keep things in-bounds rather than running out of bounds, further hampering substitution patterns?

3) Is Russell Wilson going to have some Superbowl jitters? I'm sure he will, but I felt at the end of the 49ers game, he had several bobbles, including the hand-off fumble to Lynch...I'm hoping he also doesn't throw the ball high starting the game.

I doubt it. Maybe a little excited but I doubt nervous.

1. He prepares for the game so has done everything he can to be ready. Part of the "jitters" comes from worrying that you didn't prepare enough.

2. He sees a sports psychologist every week to help him prepare mentally. He then finds a point on the field where he can focus and come back to calm.

3. He wasn't nervous starting the 49er game, he was a little over-confident and didn't protect the ball, which caused the fumble. According to Warren Moon, RW told him, "by the next series I had already forgotten about that fumble." I believe that to be true. He is a mentally prepared and mentally tough young man. Losing your dad so early in life will do that to you.

4. The bobble to Lynch I blame on Marshawn. I think he was looking for the hole before he got the ball. On the sidelines Lynch had his head in his hands as if he was upset with himself.

5. Pete Carroll is a master at keeping things loose and will probably prepare stuff just to loosen up his players and coaches.

 

[SHOCKER315]

I feel a lot better about the Seahawks' chances after reading this thread. I still have some concerns, however, mainly:

1) Our pass rush. Though we do get pressure on QBs, there seems to be periods where the pass rush disappears. I remember against the Saints' (playoff game) that Brees seemed to have an eternity to survey, but because of the pass coverage being so excellent, he had to throw it away or dink it down. What would happen if Peyton gets this much time?

That's what a lot of people don't get... that's what Seattle does. They play base defense, get the QB to move off his spot, and force check downs. Then they fly up and make hard hitting tackles often times forcing fumbles. Those dink and dunk routes may work for short periods of the game... but not consistently all game. Seattle's hits and defensive pressure starts to accumulate until QB's make a bad throw, and wr's start getting alligator arms by the 4th quarter, (see Crabtree and Jimmy Graham). Eventually due to score or hubris, opposing QB's will try to force a deep throw and the result is a pick. The same will happen in the Superbowl.

Manning is known for bad playoff INT's because he thinks he can outsmart any defense. He will try to test us deep eventually like Kap did. Kap got away with one lone TD because he has one of the strongest arms in the league. Payton... not so much. He won't be so lucky if he try's a pass over 20 yards in the wind of NY/NJ.

 

[plyka]

I feel a lot better about the Seahawks' chances after reading this thread. I still have some concerns, however, mainly:

1) Our pass rush. Though we do get pressure on QBs, there seems to be periods where the pass rush disappears. I remember against the Saints' (playoff game) that Brees seemed to have an eternity to survey, but because of the pass coverage being so excellent, he had to throw it away or dink it down. What would happen if Peyton gets this much time?

2) Rotating our D-line. A strength has been our depth, especially at our D-line. How does Broncos' hurry up offense, which they run pretty much all the time, affect this? Do the Hawks keep trying to substitute, or just keep guys in for series? Do the Broncs make a point to work the middle of the field, and keep things in-bounds rather than running out of bounds, further hampering substitution patterns?

3) Is Russell Wilson going to have some Superbowl jitters? I'm sure he will, but I felt at the end of the 49ers game, he had several bobbles, including the hand-off fumble to Lynch...I'm hoping he also doesn't throw the ball high starting the game.

1) The Hawks rarely if ever blitz. If the offense decides to strengthen protection, as the Saints did in the 2nd game, then the QB will always have more time to throw. The tradeoff they make is that they have more blockers with less receivers. This is not Denver's style. They like to send out 4-5 WRs including their back. If they increase protection and send out 2-3, Hawks will provide less pressure, but Peyton will have less weapons. If they stay with their 4-5 WRs heading out, even without the Blitz the HAwsk will bring a lot of pressure.

2) This is not the first hurry up offense the Hawks have played. There are advantages with this as well. The bad games Denver played were the times when they attempted the hurry up but went 3 and out. Those are absolute killers for your defense. If it happens 2-3 times in a row, expect the Denver defense to break for a TD. Just think about a quick minute, 3 and out for their offense, then they come on the field for ground and pound for Lynch. Then they finally get off the field, and a minute later they are back on due to another 3 and out by their offense. It's harsh for your defense when the offense cannot sustain a drive.

3) Maybe he does and maybe he doesn't. I just cannot imagine that Wilson feels more pressure than Manning. Manning's entire legacy depends on this. If his team loses in the superbowl get ready for another year of --just a regular season QB, has a losing record in the playoffs, cannot win the big one, etc. WIlson can tell himself this is his second year, he has an entire career ahead of him. Plus Wilson has the best defense in the league and an incredible running game. Peyton is going to be the only thing Denver has.

 

[letsgobroncos]

Its pretty simple to me.

Broncos over the last 2 games scored 26 and 24 points at home (in perfect weather) vs the #10 and #11 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the #1 D? Likely less right?

On the other hand the Hawks scored 23 points at home, (one game in a raining windstorm), vs the #3 and #4 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the Denver D who is #22? Likely more right?

28-21 Seahawks if weather is perfect.

If crappy windy weather, it will be even more lopsided for Seattle. :icon_new:

You do know that we have only punted 1 time in two playoff games right? Our point totals are a result of us putting long drives together. In the two games we have had 3 drives over 7 minutes long.

It will be a close game. Neither of these teams lost by more than a touchdown this year, and we haven't lost by more than a touchdown since Manning came to the Broncos.

Seattle hasn't lost by more than 7 since 2011. So the many uninformed Bronco fans predicting a Denver blowout are in for a rude awakening. Your post doesn't refute the fact the Seattle (with the addition of Harvin) will score more vs Denver then they did against much better NFC defenses. Denver will not score more vs Seattle than they did vs SD and NE.

Manning will rely on quick short passing dink and dunk style offense, due to weather, lack of arm strength, and Seattle's deep coverage ability.

Please see Drew Breeze (this year) and Tom Brady ( last year) for a good example of how that dink and dunk strategy will turn out (hint: see turnover differential and gifs below).

Who said Denver was going to blow Seattle out? You guys are the ones predicting victories of 10 points minimum, not us.

I got it, we have no chance. Why show up? Seattle is better in every aspect including quarterback where we have a weak armed QB.

Congrats on your first title!

 

[SHOCKER315]

Its pretty simple to me.

Broncos over the last 2 games scored 26 and 24 points at home (in perfect weather) vs the #10 and #11 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the #1 D? Likely less right?

On the other hand the Hawks scored 23 points at home, (one game in a raining windstorm), vs the #3 and #4 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the Denver D who is #22? Likely more right?

28-21 Seahawks if weather is perfect.

If crappy windy weather, it will be even more lopsided for Seattle. :icon_new:

You do know that we have only punted 1 time in two playoff games right? Our point totals are a result of us putting long drives together. In the two games we have had 3 drives over 7 minutes long.

It will be a close game. Neither of these teams lost by more than a touchdown this year, and we haven't lost by more than a touchdown since Manning came to the Broncos.

Seattle hasn't lost by more than 7 since 2011. So the many uninformed Bronco fans predicting a Denver blowout are in for a rude awakening. Your post doesn't refute the fact the Seattle (with the addition of Harvin) will score more vs Denver then they did against much better NFC defenses. Denver will not score more vs Seattle than they did vs SD and NE.

Manning will rely on quick short passing dink and dunk style offense, due to weather, lack of arm strength, and Seattle's deep coverage ability.

Please see Drew Breeze (this year) and Tom Brady ( last year) for a good example of how that dink and dunk strategy will turn out (hint: see turnover differential and gifs below).

Who said Denver was going to blow Seattle out?

Most Denver fans.

http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthr ... redictions

But I understand, they don't know much about the Seahawks other than misleading offensive stats, and the last 2 games. So I don't blame them... They just don't know.


You guys are the ones predicting victories of 10 points minimum, not us.

I got it, we have no chance. Why show up? Seattle is better in every aspect including quarterback where we have a weak armed QB.

Congrats on your first title!


Broncos have only one way to win... score through the short passing game. They are one dimensional. They can not rely on their run game or defense. If the weather is bad they are screwed. Even most Denver fans recognize and worry about this.

Denver can certainly beat Seattle. I'm not denying that... but the odds are more stacked against them than most want to believe. :icon_new:

 

[Zorn76]

If Lynch can run on the 49ers', then he's gonna be able to run on the Broncos as well.

Couple that with Denver's pass defense, and this is setting up real nice for a Seahawks' Super Bowl victory.

 

[RolandDeschain]

34-23 Seattle.

 

[kearly]

I feel a lot better about the Seahawks' chances after reading this thread. I still have some concerns, however, mainly:

1) Our pass rush. Though we do get pressure on QBs, there seems to be periods where the pass rush disappears. I remember against the Saints' (playoff game) that Brees seemed to have an eternity to survey, but because of the pass coverage being so excellent, he had to throw it away or dink it down. What would happen if Peyton gets this much time?

2) Rotating our D-line. A strength has been our depth, especially at our D-line. How does Broncos' hurry up offense, which they run pretty much all the time, affect this? Do the Hawks keep trying to substitute, or just keep guys in for series? Do the Broncs make a point to work the middle of the field, and keep things in-bounds rather than running out of bounds, further hampering substitution patterns?

3) Is Russell Wilson going to have some Superbowl jitters? I'm sure he will, but I felt at the end of the 49ers game, he had several bobbles, including the hand-off fumble to Lynch...I'm hoping he also doesn't throw the ball high starting the game.

I'm not really worried about points 1 or 2. Manning is almost immune to pass rush, so the way I see it if we get pressure that's a major bonus, but probably won't be needed to win. The Broncos don't really run a hurry up offense at all, they just hurry to the line where Manning double counts and audibles on nearly every play. In terms of time between plays they are pretty average in their pace.

Point three does worry me, but usually when RW starts off a game too amped up he usually calms down by half time.

 

[davidonmi]

Objectively going position by position
QB: Denver
RB: Seattle
WR/TE: Denver
Oline: Denver in pass protection, seattle in run blocking
Dline: Seattle
LB: Seattle
DB: Seattle
ST: Seattle
Coaching: Toss up
It's really peyton and 4 great targets against the overall better roster by far (you saw the player ranking) that's what intrigues me so much about this matchup

 

[HawkRiderFan]

I've like following what Barnewll and Schatz say. One thing that has been mentioned is that Denver has a weak kickoff team that gets masked by the high altitude and more kickoffs going through the endzone in Denver. Before any Denver fan gets hurt feelings, Barnwell and Schatz aren't Hawks fans and this was said before this matchup was determined. Hopefully we don't see this exploited too much with Denver kickoffs.

One thing that I am hopeful about is regarding Manning's ability to change things up at the line. Consensus seems to be that what the Hawks run on defense is pretty conventional. They dont try and fool you, just line up and beat you. One of Manning's big attributes is his ablity to read pre-snap and make his decision. You don't fool him. But if our strategy is not reliant on fooling him, I am thinking that is in our favour.

Our D plays a lot of zone underneath don't they? If that is the case, the rub routes aren't as effective right?

 

[davidonmi]

Its pretty simple to me.

Broncos over the last 2 games scored 26 and 24 points at home (in perfect weather) vs the #10 and #11 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the #1 D? Likely less right?

On the other hand the Hawks scored 23 points at home, (one game in a raining windstorm), vs the #3 and #4 defenses. What are they gonna score vs the Denver D who is #22? Likely more right?

28-21 Seahawks if weather is perfect.

If crappy windy weather, it will be even more lopsided for Seattle. :icon_new:

You do know that we have only punted 1 time in two playoff games right? Our point totals are a result of us putting long drives together. In the two games we have had 3 drives over 7 minutes long.

It will be a close game. Neither of these teams lost by more than a touchdown this year, and we haven't lost by more than a touchdown since Manning came to the Broncos.

Seattle hasn't lost by more than 7 since 2011. So the many uninformed Bronco fans predicting a Denver blowout are in for a rude awakening. Your post doesn't refute the fact the Seattle (with the addition of Harvin) will score more vs Denver then they did against much better NFC defenses. Denver will not score more vs Seattle than they did vs SD and NE.

Manning will rely on quick short passing dink and dunk style offense, due to weather, lack of arm strength, and Seattle's deep coverage ability.

Please see Drew Breeze (this year) and Tom Brady ( last year) for a good example of how that dink and dunk strategy will turn out (hint: see turnover differential and gifs below).

Who said Denver was going to blow Seattle out? You guys are the ones predicting victories of 10 points minimum, not us.

I got it, we have no chance. Why show up? Seattle is better in every aspect including quarterback where we have a weak armed QB.

Congrats on your first title!

go to the enemy fan forums thread and we have a link to a bronco forum prediction thread.
It's about 75% blowout win prediction, even a 42-12 prediction

 

[davidonmi]

actually someone posted it here, a few posts above. read their bevy of 20+ point win predictions and get back to me

 

[HawkAroundTheClock]

Why do so many visiting fans not get it? You are supposed to show up with football reasons, stats, arguments of any kind why your team is going to win. Even good-natured, clean, clever smack talk is appreciated around here.

There's no point in visiting an opposing fans' board and posting the equivalent of "yeah, whatever."

 

[titan3131]

Well, I'm convinced. I'm betting 1000 $ on this game. Here's to the glory of doing it big like BigBallsPete.
In russ we trust

 

[Laloosh]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

How would you say they've called it for dbs thus far in the playoffs? I think it tends to lean toward "let them play". Regarding "ifs and buts", he's provided opinion. In what way was "this is opinion" not clearly implied? Aside from the stats he was looking at and his opinion, where else can anyone go with it? Should he have based everything on the preseason game? You know, the only tangible thing to really illustrate how the two teams might match up?

With regard to special teams (in your 2nd post). Denver has started with worse field position (on average) but have scored at a much higher rate. Doesn't say anything about whether or not SEA instantly gains an advantage in the return game for example, by the return of oh, the most explosive return guy in the game does it?

I simply said stats can be skewed to prove whatever their motive or intent may be. Regarding special teams and "the most explosive return guy in the game", I will take my chances with Holliday (28 kick returns, 775 yards, 27.7 average with a long of 105 and 1 td) versus someone who has 1 return for 58 yards all season because of being sidelined almost the entire year because of injury....

As opposed to the guy who took 16 kick returns for 574 yards, 35.9 average, a long of 105 and 1td in the previous season. Yeah I can see why you would completely disregard that guy because he was hurt but in his only return this season went for 58. :th2thumbs:

Where did this guy go?