Will Wilson Copy Kaep's Contract Model?

[brettb3]

No. Coming off his second straight super bowl win and an MVP caliber season after just 3 years in the league, Wilson will be in a position to get the biggest contract ever for a QB. The Seahawks won't have the same opt-out ability that the 49ers have with Kaep either.

But if it plays out this way...I won't even care.

You're probably right, but the Pollyanna fan in me hopes that Russell continues to change the league norms by doing something more innovative with his contract that doesn't cripple us for remaining as competitive as we are now.

I'm not sure why this is a concern. Schneider has prepared for this. Even if we give Wilson the largest guarantee in NFL history, it won't cripple us. Paying an elite young QB who's already won a Super Bowl is a good thing.

The main reason JS and PC put together one of the greatest rosters of all time last year is due to two things:

1. Amazing ability to evaluate and coach talent
2. Pay the stars far less than the rest of the league pays their stars

Conversely the reason teams like the Broncos, Pats, Packers, Cowboys, etc are super thin in depth and suffer crushing blows when key players go down is because they're paying their QB's a HUGE portion of their salary cap space.

If we pay Russell 20M+ a year, then we no longer have a leg up on our competition with the ability to sign multiple free agents each off season. Can we still compete? Of course, but paying Russell 20M+ will make it far more difficult.

None of our elite guys are going anywhere. What it will mean is that some of our middle class guys will have to go. So we'll have to continue to draft well. But that's true of every team every year.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Seattle has never paid its stars far less than the rest of the league unless you're talking guys on their rookie deals. Red, Clem, Rice, Miller, etc. were all paid market value. Everyone they've ever offered a second contract to received a fair deal.

Who exactly are you worried about losing? They've already extended Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Michael Bennett and Doug Baldwin. The LBs are largely fungible, but they probably have enough room to re-sign one of them as well. Or we could give that money to Cliff Avril. This is all while saving enough room for Russell Wilson. Replenish depth everywhere else with good drafts. I see no reason for concern. The core is locked up. Russell is merely the last piece.

If you're worried about 2018 and beyond... well, that's sort of pointless. NFL teams change too much during that span of time to even think about cap ramifications that far out.

Who am I worried about losing? We've already seen the thinning of our talent and depth this year. Clem, Thurmond, Breno, Red, BB, Tate, etc.

Next year guys like KJ, Maxwell, Avril, Wagner, Okung, Smith and others will be up for UFA or contract extension talks.

Of course we can reload through the draft, but Russell being creative like Kaep would greatly help the cap situation to keep some of the guys I mentioned..........that's all I'm saying.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Who am I worried about losing? We've already seen the thinning of our talent and depth this year. Clem, Thurmond, Breno, Red, BB, Tate, etc.

Next year guys like KJ, Maxwell, Avril, Wagner, Okung, Smith and others will be up for UFA or contract extension talks.

Of course we can reload through the draft, but Russell being creative like Kaep would greatly help the cap situation to keep some of the guys I mentioned..........that's all I'm saying.

I get what you're saying, but look at teams like the Patriots and Colts during the Peyton years. Look at the Saints and even the Packers.

A great QB is enough to mask flaws at other positions. What would you rather have after 2015? Byron Maxwell and KJ Wright? Or Russell Wilson?

This is where JS/PC being so good at drafting, especially in the mid rounds when guys are cheap, becomes so huge and why I'm not worried at all.

 

[DavidSeven]

[
Who am I worried about losing? We've already seen the thinning of our talent and depth this year. Clem, Thurmond, Breno, Red, BB, Tate, etc.

Next year guys like KJ, Maxwell, Avril, Wagner, Okung, Smith and others will be up for UFA or contract extension talks.

Of course we can reload through the draft, but Russell being creative like Kaep would greatly help the cap situation to keep some of the guys I mentioned..........that's all I'm saying.

You have to let some guys go in order for other young (and cheap) players to get opportunities. I'm fine with all of our departures from this off-season, except it might be nice to have Thurmond for one more year (but he wanted a starting opportunity elsewhere). With or without Russell's extension, some of these guys just have to go at some point. Their value to us will be less than their value to some other team.

In terms of "special" talent on this roster, all those guys are mostly locked up for the next few years.

 

[sc85sis]

Pete is used to having rotating roster churn on an average 3-5 year cycle because he constantly had to deal with it at USC. I would not be at all surprised if we see the "middling" guys rotate out on a similar schedule for the Hawks. I think the average age of the team will generally be in the mid-to-lower range compared to other teams. This will enable Pete and John to keep the core guys while maintaining cap integrity.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Who am I worried about losing? We've already seen the thinning of our talent and depth this year. Clem, Thurmond, Breno, Red, BB, Tate, etc.

Next year guys like KJ, Maxwell, Avril, Wagner, Okung, Smith and others will be up for UFA or contract extension talks.

Of course we can reload through the draft, but Russell being creative like Kaep would greatly help the cap situation to keep some of the guys I mentioned..........that's all I'm saying.

I get what you're saying, but look at teams like the Patriots and Colts during the Peyton years. Look at the Saints and even the Packers.

A great QB is enough to mask flaws at other positions. What would you rather have after 2015? Byron Maxwell and KJ Wright? Or Russell Wilson?.

I think it USED to be enough to mask flaws at other positions, as evident by the beatdown we put on the Broncos in the SB. We had them outmatched at EVERY position due to how deep this roster was, and how thin there's was. Why? Cause the Broncos are paying Manning 20M a year, and we're paying Russell 600k.

The NFL model is going away from the Patriots/Broncos get yourself an awesome QB and pass it 50 times a game, and towards the Niners/Hawks model of spending your money on D-Line and DB's in order to stop all these thinly talented pass crazy offenses.

 

[Sherminator]

Like I posted before, Russ is going to demand a big pay-day.
The man wants to be an owner of both an NFL and MLB franchise. Can't do that making less than 20mil
Also this,

 

[formido]

Yesterday when we thought the contract was worth more, most people around the league argued Kap was worth it. Now that the contract is worth less, everyone is saying he's only worth this much.

People need to get over the idea that "you are what you are" and that your contract represents a player's actual value. It's not true. The way teams get an edge on other teams is by its roster being worth more than they're paying for it. That means some players have to be underpaid and that doesn't just mean rookie contracts.

You may think Kap is a douche, but he got a 37 on his Wonderlic. That means he's book smart, which is the kind of smart that matters in negotiations. He knows his value and it's high. There are plenty of advanced stats demonstrating Kap's effect on wins and losses. He had plenty of leverage to get a bigger contract. He chose not to. He said earlier this season he wanted to do a contract that gave the team flexibility in roster building and it's been leaked since this contract that he knew full well what he's doing. You can choose to not believe it, but the stats and his resume say otherwise. This contract significantly undervalues him, especially in light of the exploding cap.

Kap wants to win and he believes in himself. This contract lets SF, for example, sign Iupati and Crabtree. If they sign those guys, he has a much better chance of reaching the Super Bowl and being All-Pro and keeping all his escalators. If he maxed his contract, he would have a much smaller chance. This way, he can have his cake and eat it, too: Go to the Super Bowl AND be paid as well as an elite QB.

As a Seattle fan, I hate this contract. This sets the precedent, and it will be interesting to see what Wilson does. Wilson is better, but he's not *that* much better. Kaepernick made a choice to try to win and if Wilson maxes his contract value, SF may be able to close the gap.

 

[Hasselbeck]

I think it USED to be enough to mask flaws at other positions, as evident by the beatdown we put on the Broncos in the SB. We had them outmatched at EVERY position due to how deep this roster was, and how thin there's was. Why? Cause the Broncos are paying Manning 20M a year, and we're paying Russell 600k.

The NFL model is going away from the Patriots/Broncos get yourself an awesome QB and pass it 50 times a game, and towards the Niners/Hawks model of spending your money on D-Line and DB's in order to stop all these thinly talented pass crazy offenses.

I mean sure that definitely helped.. but the Broncos were defeated soundly not because they are paying Peyton Manning 20M a year, but because the Seahawks are their worst possible matchup. Same reason why the Saints struggled mightily against us, while a team like San Francisco played us pretty close for 11 out of 12 quarters last year.

A physical team will always, always, always give a pass happy team trouble. It's been that way for years and years. The teams that would always give us hell in the peak days under Holmgren were physical defenses that could disrupt the entire rhythm of the offense. That's what this Seahawks defense is now.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Now that Kaepernick's contract details are coming out, it looks to be a VERY 49'er friendly deal with stair-step guarantees, per-game rosters and de-escalators.

Guaranteed Money Comparison:
A.Rodgers: $54M
J.Flacco: $51M
M.Ryan: $42M
D.Brees/T.Romo: $40M
C.Kaepernick ~ $13M

Do you guys think Russell and his agent follow this sort of model that doesn't cripple the team and puts the owness on Russell to keep performing to max out the contract? Or do you think Russell goes for more of the Rodgers deal with way more guaranteed money?

No. He will go more Rodgers way. Say if we get him at 6y/22M I would expect around 66M grtd. I can only hope he goes Kap's way because of that contract San Francisco has and will close the gap on us quickly if Wilson goes for max value. I hate that contract.

 

[Penman96]

Wilson has to play well this coming year, if he does he can have huge guarunteed money, and if he takes a step backwards he will get a more Kaep-like deal.

I think most of the recent QB class will get deals like Kaep, they don't have that 5-6 years of excellent service in the NFL like Brady, manning, etc...and I think teams are stearing away from stupid deals like what Cutler, Flaaco, and Romo got.

The 2011 / 2012 guys will get paid large for "potential", they will need to produce in order to max out their deal. I think the 49ers did a good job for their team with Kaep's contract, I hope we do the same.

 

[brettb3]

Yesterday when we thought the contract was worth more, most people around the league argued Kap was worth it. Now that the contract is worth less, everyone is saying he's only worth this much.

People need to get over the idea that "you are what you are" and that your contract represents a player's actual value. It's not true. The way teams get an edge on other teams is by its roster being worth more than they're paying for it. That means some players have to be underpaid and that doesn't just mean rookie contracts.

You may think Kap is a douche, but he got a 37 on his Wonderlic. That means he's book smart, which is the kind of smart that matters in negotiations. He knows his value and it's high. There are plenty of advanced stats demonstrating Kap's effect on wins and losses. He had plenty of leverage to get a bigger contract. He chose not to. He said earlier this season he wanted to do a contract that gave the team flexibility in roster building and it's been leaked since this contract that he knew full well what he's doing. You can choose to not believe it, but the stats and his resume say otherwise. This contract significantly undervalues him, especially in light of the exploding cap.

Kap wants to win and he believes in himself. This contract lets SF, for example, sign Iupati and Crabtree. If they sign those guys, he has a much better chance of reaching the Super Bowl and being All-Pro and keeping all his escalators. If he maxed his contract, he would have a much smaller chance. This way, he can have his cake and eat it, too: Go to the Super Bowl AND be paid as well as an elite QB.

As a Seattle fan, I hate this contract. This sets the precedent, and it will be interesting to see what Wilson does. Wilson is better, but he's not *that* much better. Kaepernick made a choice to try to win and if Wilson maxes his contract value, SF may be able to close the gap.

Don't sweat it man. Wilson won't tie our backs. They'll come to an agreement that's beneficial for both him and the team.

 

[DavidSeven]

Yesterday when we thought the contract was worth more, most people around the league argued Kap was worth it. Now that the contract is worth less, everyone is saying he's only worth this much.

Eh, I think "most people" were saying yesterday they paid more than expected, but tempered that by saying SF didn't have alternatives. He's still making a lot and hitting the cap hard. The only surprise is the small guarantee.

This is what it comes down to:

Ian Rapoport@RapSheet
Asked an exec to sum up Kap’s deal: A pretty good deal for a pretty good QB. He gave up structure to get $$, #49ers gave up $$ for structure

 

[Anthony!]

No. Coming off his second straight super bowl win and an MVP caliber season after just 3 years in the league, Wilson will be in a position to get the biggest contract ever for a QB. The Seahawks won't have the same opt-out ability that the 49ers have with Kaep either.

But if it plays out this way...I won't even care.

You're probably right, but the Pollyanna fan in me hopes that Russell continues to change the league norms by doing something more innovative with his contract that doesn't cripple us for remaining as competitive as we are now.

I'm not sure why this is a concern. Schneider has prepared for this. Even if we give Wilson the largest guarantee in NFL history, it won't cripple us. Paying an elite young QB who's already won a Super Bowl is a good thing.

The main reason JS and PC put together one of the greatest rosters of all time last year is due to two things:

1. Amazing ability to evaluate and coach talent
2. Pay the stars far less than the rest of the league pays their stars

Conversely the reason teams like the Broncos, Pats, Packers, Cowboys, etc are super thin in depth and suffer crushing blows when key players go down is because they're paying their QB's a HUGE portion of their salary cap space.

If we pay Russell 20M+ a year, then we no longer have a leg up on our competition with the ability to sign multiple free agents each off season. Can we still compete? Of course, but paying Russell 20M+ will make it far more difficult.

So pay Et, pay Sherman, and Pay Kam but forget Rw, yeah no, Rw will get what he should and we will be fine.

 

[Largent80]

I don't care what he copies except Krapperchokes play, which I don't think RW is capable of.

 

[Anthony!]

Who am I worried about losing? We've already seen the thinning of our talent and depth this year. Clem, Thurmond, Breno, Red, BB, Tate, etc.

Next year guys like KJ, Maxwell, Avril, Wagner, Okung, Smith and others will be up for UFA or contract extension talks.

Of course we can reload through the draft, but Russell being creative like Kaep would greatly help the cap situation to keep some of the guys I mentioned..........that's all I'm saying.

I get what you're saying, but look at teams like the Patriots and Colts during the Peyton years. Look at the Saints and even the Packers.

A great QB is enough to mask flaws at other positions. What would you rather have after 2015? Byron Maxwell and KJ Wright? Or Russell Wilson?.

I think it USED to be enough to mask flaws at other positions, as evident by the beatdown we put on the Broncos in the SB. We had them outmatched at EVERY position due to how deep this roster was, and how thin there's was. Why? Cause the Broncos are paying Manning 20M a year, and we're paying Russell 600k.

The NFL model is going away from the Patriots/Broncos get yourself an awesome QB and pass it 50 times a game, and towards the Niners/Hawks model of spending your money on D-Line and DB's in order to stop all these thinly talented pass crazy offenses.

really the NFL is going away from a franchise QB. Lets see 88% of the all the teams that have won SBs had a franchise QB. Last one to win without one was over 10 years ago. Look at last years playoff every team but 1 has a franchise QB,. This is a QB driven league and nothing has changed it so not sure were you are getting you info but it is wrong.

 

[Anthony!]

Yesterday when we thought the contract was worth more, most people around the league argued Kap was worth it. Now that the contract is worth less, everyone is saying he's only worth this much.

People need to get over the idea that "you are what you are" and that your contract represents a player's actual value. It's not true. The way teams get an edge on other teams is by its roster being worth more than they're paying for it. That means some players have to be underpaid and that doesn't just mean rookie contracts.

You may think Kap is a douche, but he got a 37 on his Wonderlic. That means he's book smart, which is the kind of smart that matters in negotiations. He knows his value and it's high. There are plenty of advanced stats demonstrating Kap's effect on wins and losses. He had plenty of leverage to get a bigger contract. He chose not to. He said earlier this season he wanted to do a contract that gave the team flexibility in roster building and it's been leaked since this contract that he knew full well what he's doing. You can choose to not believe it, but the stats and his resume say otherwise. This contract significantly undervalues him, especially in light of the exploding cap.

Kap wants to win and he believes in himself. This contract lets SF, for example, sign Iupati and Crabtree. If they sign those guys, he has a much better chance of reaching the Super Bowl and being All-Pro and keeping all his escalators. If he maxed his contract, he would have a much smaller chance. This way, he can have his cake and eat it, too: Go to the Super Bowl AND be paid as well as an elite QB.

As a Seattle fan, I hate this contract. This sets the precedent, and it will be interesting to see what Wilson does. Wilson is better, but he's not *that* much better. Kaepernick made a choice to try to win and if Wilson maxes his contract value, SF may be able to close the gap.

wrong on every point, the stats show RW is way better than Kap. Second Kap made no choice he had no choice, there are huge question about him, there are none about RW. Rw is going to get paid whatever the going rate for a top 10, SB QB, and guess what we will be fine, as they have already planned for it and the cap is going up.

 

[Anthony!]

Wilson has to play well this coming year, if he does he can have huge guarunteed money, and if he takes a step backwards he will get a more Kaep-like deal.

I think most of the recent QB class will get deals like Kaep, they don't have that 5-6 years of excellent service in the NFL like Brady, manning, etc...and I think teams are stearing away from stupid deals like what Cutler, Flaaco, and Romo got.

The 2011 / 2012 guys will get paid large for "potential", they will need to produce in order to max out their deal. I think the 49ers did a good job for their team with Kaep's contract, I hope we do the same.

yeah good luck with that, Rw has already proved himself. He will not sign a Kap type deal, and should not.

 

[Anthony!]

Now that Kaepernick's contract details are coming out, it looks to be a VERY 49'er friendly deal with stair-step guarantees, per-game rosters and de-escalators.

Guaranteed Money Comparison:
A.Rodgers: $54M
J.Flacco: $51M
M.Ryan: $42M
D.Brees/T.Romo: $40M
C.Kaepernick ~ $13M

Do you guys think Russell and his agent follow this sort of model that doesn't cripple the team and puts the owness on Russell to keep performing to max out the contract? Or do you think Russell goes for more of the Rodgers deal with way more guaranteed money?

No. He will go more Rodgers way. Say if we get him at 6y/22M I would expect around 66M grtd. I can only hope he goes Kap's way because of that contract San Francisco has and will close the gap on us quickly if Wilson goes for max value. I hate that contract.

Disagree first off the deal still ties up SF money because they have to keep it ready if Kap make his goals. Rw is not in the same position as Kap. Kap has huge question around him, his play, his off filed persona, Rw does not have any questions.

 

[hawk45]

I hate myself for this, but Sgt it's "onus."

On topic, Wilson of all the QBs definitely compensates for talent drain at other positions way more than Kaep. Wilson kept the team on track for a ring despite a crap OL for most of the season. Kaep...almost did. Kaep is essentially helpless if he doesn't have a true number one. Wilson can win throwing to undrafted guys behind garbage blocking.

Not that Wilson is in Brady's league when it comes to turning garbage into stars, Brady can do it with or without a running game and historically great defense. But between Wilson and Kaep it's no contest. Add in the big throws in big moments (i.e. do not throw at Sherman with the game on the line and another down in your back pocket) and the ring, and I'm just fine with Wilson getting big guaranteed bucks.

As Seven said, everyone we were worried about we locked up this offseason, thank you JS. Sitting prettay for the Wilson contract.