Win probability chart vs. Falcons

[AgentDib]

I understand why some would be unhappy when we get heavily outscored in the second half. What actually matters is whether we win or lose.



It is often the correct call to play soft on defense and ultra conservative on offense to cement the win even if it means giving up score differential. There were two bad plays in a row that the defense would like to have back:
- 4thQ 13:42 22 yard pass to Julio Jones (-4.4% WP)
- 4thQ 13:31 19 yard pass to Calvin Ridley (-3.3% WP)

Other than those two plays, the defense did their job in securing a win. You can see that the second falcons TD is barely even a blip on the WP chart because the time expended forced them into onside kick mode.

What about the chance that the Falcons may get an onside kick recovery to get back in the game? The NFL currently has a major onside kick problem. This query at PFR tracks onside kick recovery rate over the last two seasons and there have been just 5 recoveries out of nearly 80 attempts. Even that is too high for a realistic rate because it includes surprise onside kicks such as Parkey's last week. When a team is expecting an onside kick it is nearly impossible under the current rule set, because players can no longer get a running start and they can no longer overload one side of the field.

 

[Year of The Hawk]

I think this is interesting. As frustrating as watching it can be Pete plays the odds. He wins what appears to be an ugly game but he still wins. I will take ugly wins over well played loses every time.

 

[Scorpion05]

It doesn’t just matter if we win or lose, if we’re actually looking at the rest of the season.

What do those odds say had Freeman not fumbled on the one yard line? And their missed field goals? The Falcons had several moments of incompetence. We really need to stop giving these excuses. It shows homerism over objectivity.

We can’t be okay with 460 yards from Schaub. Even worse when you factor in the blunders the Falcons gave us. We will only win the tough games if Russell plays out of his mind.

 

[sc85sis]

You can't debate what ifs. Lots of things in life, let alone football, would be different if only...

Enjoy the win.

 

[AgentDib]

What do those odds say had Freeman not fumbled on the one yard line? And their missed field goals? The Falcons had several moments of incompetence. We really need to stop giving these excuses.

Have you considered that our conservative play was in response to those very miscues? You're arguing that it wouldn't have worked to use the exact same strategy if the situation was different. Yes and?

It shows homerism over objectivity.

Conversely, it's tiresome when Seahawks fans grandstand about how they won't accept excuses or have high standards and expectations. It's just a public display of virtue signaling. Overreacting to your team's outcome doesn't mean you care more or are less of a homer, it just means you have a poor grasp on reality.

And why should anybody care about being labeled a homer? If you think looking at a statistical win probability chart makes a poster "a homer" than that says a lot more about you then it does about anybody else.

 

[chris98251]

Homer = Fan of team that believes in them and has hopeful thoughts every week, yeah that's a bad thing, Rose Colored glasses = is one that ignores the situation of how the team will perform.

 

[JGreen79]

It doesn’t just matter if we win or lose, if we’re actually looking at the rest of the season.

What do those odds say had Freeman not fumbled on the one yard line? And their missed field goals? The Falcons had several moments of incompetence. We really need to stop giving these excuses. It shows homerism over objectivity.

We can’t be okay with 460 yards from Schaub. Even worse when you factor in the blunders the Falcons gave us. We will only win the tough games if Russell plays out of his mind.

Actually the only thing that matters is if we win or lose... If there is one thing this team has proven over the years is that one game doesn't make the next game. Especially a week 8 game. Here's a history of week 8 games since 2012

2012- Det - L 24-28
2013 - STL - W 14-9
2014 - Car - W 13-9
2015 - Dal - L 12-13
2016 - NO - L 25-20
2017 - Hou - W 41-38
2018 - Det - W 28-14
2019 - ATL - W 27-20

In the 2013 game we were dominated in nearly everything that mattered and it wasn't even the first time it happened that year.

 

[sutz]

We can’t be okay with 460 yards from Schaub. Even worse when you factor in the blunders the Falcons gave us. We will only win the tough games if Russell plays out of his mind.

Unless he's playing against you in fantasy football, who cares? Yards ain't points, last I heard. Unless he can turn those yards into a significant amount of points, it doesn't much matter.

27-20, that's what matters.

 

[chris98251]

I always thought Wins and Loses were the primary stat that got you into the playoffs and Super Bowl, silly me I have been wrong all these years.