Worse drafting results as the years go by?

[Blitzhawk]

I think because of a couple of whiffs its easy to see our drafts as less productive but I dont see that. Like has been said, part of it is that its hard to crack a quality roster, but even with this I think we are getting strong results.

2013:

We didnt have a first round pick.. 2nd round was Christine Michael. Dont want to get into that debate right now, but I think its at least to say we havent gotten value for that draft position.

3rd round..Jordan Hill. He is contributing, and may be about to show us his real value. With Mebane out he is going to get a lot more playing time. Previously I assumed it meant Williams was going to get asked to do much more..the last couple of days I think it might be more in Carrolls personality to give Hill most of the extra plays. Mebane, also a 3rd round pic, emerged under similar circumstances.. so this could be an even better pick than we think. We will see in the next 7 games.

5th round.. Simon. Just now getting playing time and arguably, and with a smaller body of work, has looked better than Maxwell. Early in the Season you saw Maxwell get picked on.. Simon hasnt had that happen to him and is more of the type Carroll seems to want in their outside CBs. I think Simon will be the clear starter by the end of the season.

5th round.. Luke Willson. Had a real bad game with lots of drops and is playing hurt now.. hasnt really made the jump we wanted when Miller went down..but for a 5th rounder has performed reasonably.

7th round Tackle Bowie. As a rookie he started at tackle almost half the season. Wasnt amazing, but got us through it . Cant ask much more of a 7th round rookie.

Undrafted we got Bailey, who started about half the season last season, has played multiple positions this year and started.

2014:

2nd round. Paul Richardson , WR. Just now getting going because of He Who Shall Not Be Named, but clearly this pick was foreshadowing.. I think he will come on in the second half of the season and has already given a spark as a KR, and shown he might be our guy who is able to "take the top off" defenses.

2nd round. Tackle Britt. Starting and you dont hear from him much. Cant ask more of a rookie tackle. Solidified a position that weve wanted to improve going back to 2007 or 2008.

didnt have a 3rd round pick..

4th round DE Marsh.. made the team.. seemed to just be a guy , now out. We will see what we have next year.

4th round WR Kevin Norwood. Looks like hes going to develop into a poor mans Boldin. Remember it took Golden Tate a couple years to really get good.. both he and Richardson are on schedule to be solid or better.

4th round Kevin Pierre Louis. Getting worked more and more into the game plan and flashing talent. Getting good pressure. As he learns the NFL level , that pressure will likely turn to sacks.

6th round Pinkins. He is red shirting this year but they kept him around so thats a positive.

And we of course got Brock Coyle, un drafted and he has already started a game at MLB and wasnt noticeable, again , a good sign for a MLB. Wasnt amazing but made his tackles and wasnt a liability. That qualifies as a steal for an undrafted player.

So, even though its too early to even grade 2013 and 2014 I think we are getting more value than we realize..

Excellent detailed break down post I agree with completely.

Good post OP which I agree with all points except your subject line. "Worse drafting results as the years go by" would indicate a consistant decline and I just do not see that at all because of your own reasons and Vet's post.

Also, great points made by Kearly as always.

I guess I really have nothing more to add myself that has not already been said but kudos to those.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Regarding Pete's USC connection, it had a little to do with Baldwin and Sherman, it had a lot to do with the Bruce Irvin picks and Harvin trade. It got us some USC linebackers super cheap.

I've learned that the draft is less about who the team picks and more about the team that's taking the player. There are certain organizations that are graveyards for QBs, for example. Sanchez goes to the Jets and looks horrible. He goes to Chip Kelly's Eagles and looks very good. Would Sherman be THIS good if he didn't pair with a DB genius like Pete Carroll? Would he have even gotten much of a shot elsewhere?

Rather than grade the players, we should be grading our coaching staff for finding their kind of guys. And for the most part, I think they have, with some extra luck on their side in 2010-2012.

Some of it requires waiting too. Maxwell looked like just a special teams guy before 2013. Sweezy took a couple of years to become a complete guard.

We've seen this ability to find the right kind of players in FA and trades as well. There is no team in the league who fits Marshawn Lynch better than Carroll's Seahawks. The FA/trade acquisitions on the DL have made it one of the league's better units. It seems like a pretty good chunk of this team was built off the scrap heap by a coaching staff that knew exactly what they were looking for.

Killer post man. Great points one and all.

I agree with folks that are stating some of the 'issues' of the last couple of drafts having to do with it being more difficult to get pt with this team now.

The one thing I think the front office has struggled with the most is the WR position. P-Rich and Norwood could change that but it seems their never ending quest for the 'right" WRs is just that, never ending. The huge whiff on Harvin makes the struggles even more acute.

 

[lukerguy]

I've learned that the draft is less about who the team picks and more about the team that's taking the player. There are certain organizations that are graveyards for QBs, for example. Sanchez goes to the Jets and looks horrible. He goes to Chip Kelly's Eagles and looks very good. Would Sherman be THIS good if he didn't pair with a DB genius like Pete Carroll? Would he have even gotten much of a shot elsewhere?

Excellent point. I'm starting to see this too. I don't think Richard Sherman would be a mega-star if he was signed by anyone other than Pete.

Pete has drafted players with certain characteristics that fit HIS team model, then give them the tools and opportunity to succeed.

I'm reading a book at the moment called "Golf is not a game of perfect." It's by a sports psychologist who worked with a few players on the PGA before they became household names. He said that most of the guys good enough to play on the PGA Tour have very comparable golf games physically. Most of them can shoot a very similar sub par score (mid 60's) when not in competition. However, what separates the great from the average is their individual mentality.

I think PC does the best job of any defensive coach in putting his players in a position to succeed (drafts speed, teachable, hungry, competitive guys), then coaches them up, tells them to play loose.

I think it his however possible that he's lost touch with which players are teachable, hungry, and competitive... I guess we'll see in the next few years !

 

[hawkfan68]

How often do you see the best corner in the game come out of the 5th round? Looking over the history of the draft for all NFL teams, the Sherman pick is one that stands out like very few others. Wilson is a similar story. As is Kam, Baldwin, Maxwell, Bailey and Sweezy, to a lesser degree.

I think it's okay to say that Seattle is fantastic at drafting in the late rounds while also admitting that there was some luck involved too. Richard Sherman caliber players aren't available every year. He was a once in a generation find in the 5th round.

Good OP btw. But I will differ slightly in that I'm not yet convinced our 2013 and 2014 drafts were anything less than average.

In 2013, you had Michael, Hill, Simon, Willson and Bailey. Michael is a playmaker at RB who can turn small opportunities into big plays. Hill has been a serviceable DT in the rotation, at a position where being average is valuable. Simon has started off well, other than some dumb penalties. Willson is one of the most athletic TEs in the league, he's having a tough year with drops (something that wasn't a problem in college or as a rookie) but his talent for the H-back / TE hybrid position is obvious. Bailey looks like a UDFA steal. He'll probably be our LG for most of the next two seasons, and very well might replace Okung eventually.

In 2014, I'm very happy with the Richardson and Britt choices. Norwood and KPL have both looked very good in limited opportunities. Marsh looked like a piece of the puzzle before he was injured. Gilliam is far from a sure thing, but has good upside and seems like the kind of player worth keeping tabs on.

My only regret in the 2014 draft was that Seattle passed on some rather obvious big WR talent in Donte Moncrief and Martavis Bryant. This was a good year to draft a big WR, but Seattle went a different direction.

As always, a great post. The Seahawks did two picks the past two drafts that haven't seen a down in a regular season yet - Jesse Williams and Garrett Scott. Most likely due to health issues they may not even play in the NFL. I think having a solid young team can take risks such as this and see if something should pan out. I too was hoping for a big WR, like Bryant, Matthews, Robinson, or Moncrief from last year's draft but it didn't happen. I wasn't too thrilled about the Michael or Harper picks in 2013. However, I was excited that they were able to sign Bailey because most mocks had him with a 3rd to 4th round grade. Definite steal.

 

[HawkWow]

I'd give this FO's pre-2014 drafting a C grade. And that might be generous, actually. BUT..I believe the '14 class alone could raise this grade to a B.

I see Richardson having the potential of a prime Santana Moss and Norwood could easily develop into an Antonio Bryant for us. Some won't like (or understand) those comparisons but they are very legit...as well as quite complimentary (again, I am referencing them in their prime).

I really like the Kevin Pierre Louis pick and it's just too early to try to accurately gauge Britt or of course, Marsh.

But thus far, 2014 looks very promising to me. Take away the luck factor with picks like Sherm, and the no-brainer factor with the picks of Earl and Okung, and 2014 could ultimately prove to be our best since Pete's arrival. IMO.

 

[hawkfan68]

I'd give this FO's pre-2014 drafting a C grade. And that might be generous, actually. BUT..I believe the '14 class alone could raise this grade to a B.

I see Richardson having the potential of a prime Santana Moss and Norwood could easily develop into an Antonio Bryant for us. Some won't like (or understand) those comparisons but they are very legit...as well as quite complimentary (again, I am referencing them in their prime).

I really like the Kevin Pierre Louis pick and it's just too early to try to accurately gauge Britt or of course, Marsh.

But thus far, 2014 looks very promising to me. Take away the luck factor with picks like Sherm, and the no-brainer factor with the picks of Earl and Okung, and 2014 could ultimately prove to be our best since Pete's arrival. IMO.

HawkWow great post. I agree with you about Richardson and Norwood. Yeah comparsions to S. Moss and Bryant respecitively for those guys are spot on. I agree with you about Kevin Pierre Louis. When it's said and done, I think KPL will be the steal of the draft for the Seahawks. Richardson is do well but the expectations for him are much higher than they are for KPL because of where they were picked. Just like I think Bailey was the steal in 2013 even though he wasn't drafted. His versatility to play multiple positions along the line is having an impact and he's becoming a valuable resource.

 

[RunTheBall]

We're already grading draft classes from 2013 and 2014? Give them 2 more years before we even make any judgements at all.

 

[HawkWow]

We're already grading draft classes from 2013 and 2014? Give them 2 more years before we even make any judgements at all.

So you think we should wait 4 years to grade, for example, a 2nd rd RB? No.

The average NFL career for a RB is under 3 years. The average career of an NFL football player is just over 3.

That fun fact aside, I'm not of the camp that thinks a pick should be on his way to his second deal before actually producing. But as stated several times in this thread...the jury is still out on '14.

 

[AgentDib]

Of course it's too early to come out with final grades but there's nothing wrong with speculating. Is there something else that we do here besides speculate about stuff?

2014 draft class seems alright to me so far. We're getting production from six rookies: Richardson and Norwood at receiver, Britt and Gilliam at OL, Coyle and KPL at LB. Staten and Marsh look like they have potential to help next year at DL.

2013 draft class does look like a whiff but that is heavily influenced by the Harvin deal. I still have high hopes for Hill and Simon if they can just stay healthy, and Bailey does deserve a mention as our LG of the future if we count UDFAs. Beyond that it looks like a year that the FO would just as soon forget. Luckily our drafting was so good in 2010-2012 that we didn't need much production out of our draft in order to win the Super Bowl.

Interestingly, our opponents this Sunday look like they had a fairly poor 2013 draft as well. Eric Fisher is playing well for them at LT, and that is a big deal, but beyond that the only other contributions from the Chiefs 2013 class are coming from Knile Davis (2nd RB) and Travis Kelce (2nd TE). The Chiefs look like they hit a home run in 2014, however, with contributions coming from over a dozen different rookies this year.