Question for the draft gurus

Where do you guys rank this draft class in terms of overall talent level compared to other recent draft classes? Are we looking at a star-studded class like 2011, a (mostly) disaster like 2013, or somewhere in between?

I'd say it's an average class. Rather similar to last year's class in overall quality although the positions that stand out will differ.

Erebus":22f0y0jj said:

Where do you guys rank this draft class in terms of overall talent level compared to other recent draft classes? Are we looking at a star-studded class like 2011, a (mostly) disaster like 2013, or somewhere in between?

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Don't understand where you're getting a (mostly) disaster in 2013 from. Their were a lot of good players that came out of 2013. Lotuleilei, Sheldon Richardson, Kawann Short, Eric Fisher, Ansah, Gio Bernard, LeVeon Bell, Mathieu, Jordan Reed, Latavius Murray... The 2013 draft wasn't a bad draft. It just wasn't a good draft for us, even though we did get Luke Willson out of that draft and I like the way Willson is performing. I see this draft being a lot like the 2013 draft in the respect that their is a lot of quality linemen in this draft on both sides of the ball with some good players at certain positions intermittently spread out. This could be an amazing draft for us if we draft the right players and put them in the right situations. I'm actually loving this draft with guys like Cooper, Higbee, Marshall, Dahl, Cajuste and Vernon Adams being likely options on the 2nd and 3rd day of the draft. I'm hoping we hit another homerun on this draft.

firebee":1y0okk0y said:

Erebus":1y0okk0y said:

Where do you guys rank this draft class in terms of overall talent level compared to other recent draft classes? Are we looking at a star-studded class like 2011, a (mostly) disaster like 2013, or somewhere in between?

Click to expand...

Don't understand where you're getting a (mostly) disaster in 2013 from. Their were a lot of good players that came out of 2013. Lotuleilei, Sheldon Richardson, Kawann Short, Eric Fisher, Ansah, Gio Bernard, LeVeon Bell, Mathieu, Jordan Reed, Latavius Murray... The 2013 draft wasn't a bad draft. It just wasn't a good draft for us, even though we did get Luke Willson out of that draft and I like the way Willson is performing. I see this draft being a lot like the 2013 draft in the respect that their is a lot of quality linemen in this draft on both sides of the ball with some good players at certain positions intermittently spread out. This could be an amazing draft for us if we draft the right players and put them in the right situations. I'm actually loving this draft with guys like Cooper, Higbee, Marshall, Dahl, Cajuste and Vernon Adams being likely options on the 2nd and 3rd day of the draft. I'm hoping we hit another homerun on this draft.

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The top half of the first round was pretty bad and the draft lacked quality depth overall. The best players in that draft are good players, but aren't as good as the best players from most other drafts, and there are fewer good players than other drafts. That's why I said (mostly) disaster. It says quite a bit about that draft that you had to list average players like Murray and Fisher as justification of it being good. If you look at each position, only one has several good players, and that is DT. But to be fair, that class is still young and the players still have time to break out.

The way I judge a draft class is to look at the success of the draft's 1st wave of talent, which is usually expended by the midway point of round one. After that group is gone, the success rate of who's left is really determined by the right player going to the right team, and it tends to be pretty random. Therefore, I tend to view drafts that start very poorly as being the worst drafts, even if they are really good later, since success with later picks is usually something you would chalk up to dumb luck (with occasional exceptions like PC/JS in the secondary or Alex Gibbs with the OL).

2013 was pretty horrible. In the first half of round one, only 2 players made the pro-bowl so far. For comparison, the much maligned 2009 draft produced 5 pro-bowlers in the top half of round one.

The best draft in recent history was 2011, which produced 12 pro-bowlers out of the top 16 picks, among them are some of the biggest superstars in the game today.

The 2010 draft was also very good. It had 10 out of 16, and 12 of 18 make the pro-bowl.

The 2012 draft was surprisingly weak. Only 6 of the top 16 made the pro-bowl. Only 20 players in the entire draft made a pro-bowl so far. Seattle did very well to snag 2 out of 20.

It's too early to evaluate the 2014 draft, though its worth noting that Seattle brutally flunked this draft particularly in the late rounds, and the rest of the NFL fared no better. That draft has only produced two pro-bowlers who were drafted after the 2nd round so far. Overall, it's looking like 2014 was historically good at WR, and very good at pass rusher, but very weak outside of those two areas.

It's WAY too early to evaluate 2015 but the early returns make it look like a below average draft, which means Seattle's success picking so late all the more impressive.

So basically, we've had four average or worse drafts league wide beginning in 2012. And based on what I've seen so far, I think 2016 will make it five in a row. I just don't see anybody special among the front line talent group.

I think these kinds of drafts that have good line talent set up great drafts for the future, the Elite QB isn't really there, good prospects but no Luck or Manning type guys, it's about time we had a dirt bag draft, guys that will be known in the future but maybe not as marquee now.

This could set us up depth wise and solidify the next 4 years, we have plenty of skill position talent really with the exception of depth at RB.

Erebus":1tupdif0 said:

Where do you guys rank this draft class in terms of overall talent level compared to other recent draft classes? Are we looking at a star-studded class like 2011, a (mostly) disaster like 2013, or somewhere in between?

Click to expand...

I see it fairly significantly worse than 2013's draft.

It is a trenches draft. Which in normal parlance typically means 'no skill position players good enough to really be a first round player'. All things being equal, skill position players will outpace trench talent by a very wide margin.

We can go by position:

1. DL. Deemed the deepest position group. It doesn't have anyone other than maybe Buckner in the same class as Richardson/Lotulelei from that class. It's a deep class. But mostly filled with guys that seem to run the Sylvester Williams - Kawaan Short range. In 3 years, I expect this group to eclipse 2013. But I think it'll be due to larger number of quality players developing into great ones.

While it's easy to say, "Short is the best 3T in the game" -- that's true. He burst onto the scene this year. Up to this year though, he was not even as disruptive/productive as Jordan Hill had been prior to this year. The bottom line is there could be a couple of Short's in this class. But you won't know it for a few seasons.

2. OL. Again not nearly as good on paper. No interior guys the likes of Cooper or Warmack. Tunsil is an alpha OT. But past him there are a bunch of Justin Pugh types. Guys that look like they'll be 'solid' guys with grossly underwhelming testing numbers. Not anything like the last couple years where you saw guys like Bitonio/Fisher/Morse push back into R2.

Decker and Stanley were looked at as R1 prospects heading into the 2015 draft. They didn't come out. And then had relatively mundane seasons this year. They would have both rated top 20 in last year's draft in the OL. The fact they may not suffer this year is more a testament to how bleah this pool is.

3. DB. This is an awful draft. At least there was Millner/Reid/Vaccaro/Trufant in 2013. There's Ramsey this year as the alpha talent. Then a guy with zero interceptions in the mix for the second DB off the board.


Overall this really looks like a very modest draft class at the top. And not a lot of 'name' kind of guys to push athletic projects far down the list. Seems a lot of solid, if unspectacular college players for the most part.

I saw the words "draft guru's" and knew the OP was talking about me. Its somewhere in between.