Everyone,
It's that time of year again. The season is closing down and playoffs are in the air! This year's picture is especially complex so with everyone's consent, I'm going to restrict myself to the four teams of the NFCW going into week 15 going in reverse current order (starting with Rams and ending with Cards):
Rams 6-7 [4-5 Conf, 2-2 Div]
Divisional Race: Eliminated The Rams were eliminated from division contention when Arizona won their tenth game. [Seattle's win over Philly also eliminated the Rams because Seattle and Arizona play each other in week 16]
Wild Card Race Life-Support In order for the Rams to qualify for a wildcard spot, they have to win out and they must not face more than two other non-division leading team with 10 wins or more.
Clinching Scenarios: None
Elimination Scenarios: Any Rams loss, OR A Detroit Win AND A Seattle Win eliminate the Rams.
Why? RIght now the best record the Rams can have is 9-7. The Cardinals and Packers already have 10 wins, and Dallas and Philly play each other which means one of them will also have 10 wins. Since the NFCS will be won with 8 wins (or less), that leaves only five playoff spots, and three teams already have records that the Rams can't attain. If Seattle and Detriot both win, there will be five teams at the end of week 15 with 10 wins or more eliminating the Rams from any Wildcard spot.
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Niners 7-6 [Conf 6-4, Div: 1-3]
Divisional Race Eliminated Why? The best the Niners can finish is 10-6 but for that to be the best in the division, Seattle would have to beat the Cardinals (the Cards would have to lose out) which would create a three way 10-6 tie, and Seattle wins this three way tie.
Wild Card: Outside Looking in (and fading) Why? The Niners can at least make the 10 win threshhold hypothetically, and two of the Niners losses are AFC losses which would give them some advantageous tiebreaks if this were to happen. Unfortunately the Niners have to face Seattle, San Diego, and Arizona, and if they lose ANY of them, they are probably done.
Clinching Scenarios: None
Elimination Scenarios: San Fran Loss (Seattle Win) AND Detroit Win This is much like the Rams elimination scenarios. A San Fran loss would be a double whammy not only elevating rival Seattle to 10 wins, but reducing the maximum possible record to 9-7. This along with a Detroit win would mean there would be too many 10 win teams for San Fran to make it.
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Seattle: 9-4 [Conf 7-2, Div: 2-1]
Divisional Race: 2nd place but controls own destiny thanks to week 16 rematch with Arizona. This is one of the simplier playoff pictures to read. If Seattle wins out, they win the divisionand have no worse than a first week bye.
Actually Seattle can win the division by winning out and be stuck with the #3 seed if Dallas wins the NFCE and the Packers win the NFCN with 13 wins. If Seattle is in a three way tie at 12-4, they'll get the #1 seed.
Wild Card: Current #5 Seed, prospects bright failing a division win. Why? Because Seattle's two of their losses were to AFC clubs, they have the multiple team tiebreaks over vitually all other NFC teams by conference record. That means that if Seattle is tied with two or more clubs (like is currently the case), Seattle wins that tie break. If Seattle wins at least one more, a WC spot is likely (if not assured), if they win two more, with the tiebreak advantage above, Seattle is virtually assured a playoff spot of some kind. Of the current NFC contenders, only Dallas as an overt tiebreak over Seattle.
Clinching Scenarios: None (not yet....but week 16 likely seals the division)
Elimination Scenarios: None
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Cardinals: 10-3 [Conf 7-2, Div: 2-1]
Divisional Race: First place but Seattle's footsteps are getting loud...and the Cards have already lost to Seattle once. Like Seattle, if the Cards do manage to win out they will have no worse than a week one bye and division title. Unfortunately they have to face a hot Rams team, Seattle (who has already beaten them), and San Fran @ San Fran all on a M*A*S*H unit of a team. There is a reason why the national pundits think Seattle will overtake in week 16.
Wild Card WIth ten wins already in their pocket, and a suddenly collapsing Niner team, the playoff odds for at least a Wildcard look very promising for Arizona especially with it's strong conference record (and thus tie breaks [see Seattle]).
Clinching Scenarios: None (yet....but week 16 likely decides the division)
Elimination Scenarios: None
*whew*
I hope everyone finds this useful, interesting, or both.
It's that time of year again. The season is closing down and playoffs are in the air! This year's picture is especially complex so with everyone's consent, I'm going to restrict myself to the four teams of the NFCW going into week 15 going in reverse current order (starting with Rams and ending with Cards):
Rams 6-7 [4-5 Conf, 2-2 Div]
Divisional Race: Eliminated The Rams were eliminated from division contention when Arizona won their tenth game. [Seattle's win over Philly also eliminated the Rams because Seattle and Arizona play each other in week 16]
Wild Card Race Life-Support In order for the Rams to qualify for a wildcard spot, they have to win out and they must not face more than two other non-division leading team with 10 wins or more.
Clinching Scenarios: None
Elimination Scenarios: Any Rams loss, OR A Detroit Win AND A Seattle Win eliminate the Rams.
Why? RIght now the best record the Rams can have is 9-7. The Cardinals and Packers already have 10 wins, and Dallas and Philly play each other which means one of them will also have 10 wins. Since the NFCS will be won with 8 wins (or less), that leaves only five playoff spots, and three teams already have records that the Rams can't attain. If Seattle and Detriot both win, there will be five teams at the end of week 15 with 10 wins or more eliminating the Rams from any Wildcard spot.
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Niners 7-6 [Conf 6-4, Div: 1-3]
Divisional Race Eliminated Why? The best the Niners can finish is 10-6 but for that to be the best in the division, Seattle would have to beat the Cardinals (the Cards would have to lose out) which would create a three way 10-6 tie, and Seattle wins this three way tie.
Wild Card: Outside Looking in (and fading) Why? The Niners can at least make the 10 win threshhold hypothetically, and two of the Niners losses are AFC losses which would give them some advantageous tiebreaks if this were to happen. Unfortunately the Niners have to face Seattle, San Diego, and Arizona, and if they lose ANY of them, they are probably done.
Clinching Scenarios: None
Elimination Scenarios: San Fran Loss (Seattle Win) AND Detroit Win This is much like the Rams elimination scenarios. A San Fran loss would be a double whammy not only elevating rival Seattle to 10 wins, but reducing the maximum possible record to 9-7. This along with a Detroit win would mean there would be too many 10 win teams for San Fran to make it.
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Seattle: 9-4 [Conf 7-2, Div: 2-1]
Divisional Race: 2nd place but controls own destiny thanks to week 16 rematch with Arizona. This is one of the simplier playoff pictures to read. If Seattle wins out, they win the division
Actually Seattle can win the division by winning out and be stuck with the #3 seed if Dallas wins the NFCE and the Packers win the NFCN with 13 wins. If Seattle is in a three way tie at 12-4, they'll get the #1 seed.
Wild Card: Current #5 Seed, prospects bright failing a division win. Why? Because Seattle's two of their losses were to AFC clubs, they have the multiple team tiebreaks over vitually all other NFC teams by conference record. That means that if Seattle is tied with two or more clubs (like is currently the case), Seattle wins that tie break. If Seattle wins at least one more, a WC spot is likely (if not assured), if they win two more, with the tiebreak advantage above, Seattle is virtually assured a playoff spot of some kind. Of the current NFC contenders, only Dallas as an overt tiebreak over Seattle.
Clinching Scenarios: None (not yet....but week 16 likely seals the division)
Elimination Scenarios: None
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Cardinals: 10-3 [Conf 7-2, Div: 2-1]
Divisional Race: First place but Seattle's footsteps are getting loud...and the Cards have already lost to Seattle once. Like Seattle, if the Cards do manage to win out they will have no worse than a week one bye and division title. Unfortunately they have to face a hot Rams team, Seattle (who has already beaten them), and San Fran @ San Fran all on a M*A*S*H unit of a team. There is a reason why the national pundits think Seattle will overtake in week 16.
Wild Card WIth ten wins already in their pocket, and a suddenly collapsing Niner team, the playoff odds for at least a Wildcard look very promising for Arizona especially with it's strong conference record (and thus tie breaks [see Seattle]).
Clinching Scenarios: None (yet....but week 16 likely decides the division)
Elimination Scenarios: None
*whew*
I hope everyone finds this useful, interesting, or both.