Redzone percentage

hawkfan68 · Sep 28, 2015

This Seahawk redzone offense stuff is peeving me so I took a look the following site -
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

In 2011, the Seahawks average a redzone TDs percentage of 47.83, that ranked 22nd in the NFL. The best team that season averaged 66.13% and was Detroit.

2012 - The Seahawks posted redzone TD% of 53.85, that ranked 16th in the NFL. The best team that season was GB at 68.52%.

2013 - The Seahawks were 53.23% and that ranked 14th in the NFL. The best team was Denver at 72.73%.

2014 - The Seahawks were 51.52%, that was 20th in the NFL. The best team was Oakland at 71.43%.

2015 - So the Seahawks are at 37.50% which is 28th in the NFL. The best team is Arizona at 91.67%.

The best redzone offense team the past 4 1/4 seasons was only a slightly better than average. With all the talent on this team, you'd think that percentage would be improving each year not remaining the same or even regressing. Bringing Graham was something they did to improve this area (one of the reasons). That hasn't helped. His TD yesterday was not a redzone TD. They were 0-2 in that area yesterday. They had a wonderful oppty with the Sherman punt return but came way with only 3 points. They had another oppty at the end of the first half and only came away with 3 points. One redzone conversion in the Rams game and the Seahawks would be sitting at 2-1 not 1-2. That game wouldn't have gone into overtime had they converted just one more redzone oppty. They ended that game at 1-4 in redzone offense.
This is the weakest area of the Seahawk offense and it continues to be a problem.

nanomoz · Sep 28, 2015

The measure I'm most focused on to determine whether or not the Graham trade was a success is red zone percentage and third down percentage. I've got a hunch that Pete and John are looking at the same data. They know it's a problem.

However, the sample size is small. I'm holding out hope for consistent improvement. Wilson still needs to learn to throw the ball up to a massive guy, even when he's covered.

TwistedHusky · Sep 28, 2015

Except it isn't a small sample size, because in the preseason these issues were appearing too.

Yes, preseason end of game results hardly matter, but individual plays with starters against starters? Pretty clear that is just an indication that one side cannot execute against the other.

Now why? That is the issue.

But the offensive struggles have been clear since this team got out of training camp and started playing other teams.

And to be frank, this is a trend that we kept from last year, we are just worse now.

Uncle Si · Sep 28, 2015

TwistedHusky":2wjqmbd6 said:
Except it isn't a small sample size, because in the preseason these issues were appearing too.

Yes, preseason end of game results hardly matter, but individual plays with starters against starters? Pretty clear that is just an indication that one side cannot execute against the other.

Now why? That is the issue.

But the offensive struggles have been clear since this team got out of training camp and started playing other teams.

And to be frank, this is a trend that we kept from last year, we are just worse now.

How many 3rd downs or red zone chances with all the starters in on offense did we have in pre season? What were the conversion rates?

hawkfan68 · Sep 28, 2015

The link posted earlier is just regular season stats. A team could go 100% in redzone offense or it could go 0% and it wouldn't tell anything about the effectiveness. The consistent regular season stats from 2011-15 (currently) is concerning. They have been average or below average in that statistic each year. In perspective, the 2005 team had a redzone pct of 67.61% and they were #2 in the NFL. For every 3 times they were in the redzone, they cashed in for TD twice. This team is cashing in once in every three trips to the redzone. 4 points made a difference against St. Louis, it meant the difference in winning and losing. For a team that plays very tight games, for the most part, that poor efficiency means it costs them games. It already did in week 1. They aren't going to blow out teams every week (it would be nice). So this statistic is very important in close games (it means more). You're scoring 7 pts instead of 3 or 0.

evergreen · Sep 28, 2015

I feel the pain! Kansas City last year and the Super Bowl and every game since. Red Zone losers. Defense wins if you kick field goals inside the redzone. Obviously our offensive line is subpar as expected, but Russ has been anything but clutch since the Godline interception. He had chances to cacth GB offsides or 12 men on the field and just waited for everyone to settle down before running a play even after Rogers killed us on a similar play. Our offense goes the way of Lynch and Wilson and neither is very awesome right now.

DavidSeven · Sep 28, 2015

You look at the teams ranked 2 through 7 on the 2014 ranking, and you will see that each one of them had elite red zone talent. And I mean elite, prototypical big bodies who can win 1-on-1 matchups. Dez/Witten, Gronk, Marshall/Alshon, the Thomas brothers, Julio, Jimmy, etc. We have not had that talent between 2011-2014 unless you count the ghost of Mike Williams. Thus, the trade for Jimmy. We'll see if it works as expected, but two games is too small a sample size.

Look at Pittsburgh last year -- potent offense, Ben, Bell and Brown. They were #19 in the red zone last year (not really any better than Seattle), probably because their best red zone receiver was Bryant and he was still raw. Still, no one's trading away Pitt's offense for Oakland's. Being explosive can make up the difference, and our's has been among the most explosive in the NFL for quite a while.

That said, I have no idea how to explain Oakland's red zone effectiveness pre-Cooper. That's a head scratcher.

gowazzu02 · Sep 29, 2015

Wilsons hesitant to throw it unless the guys wide open. The redzone shrinks down the throwing lanes.

Vesuve · Sep 30, 2015

hawkfan68":ygtz0420 said:
This Seahawk redzone offense stuff is peeving me so I took a look the following site -
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

2015 - So the Seahawks are at 37.50% which is 28th in the NFL. The best team is Arizona at 91.67%.

On a lot of those offense statistics at Teamrankings, Arizona is #1 or #2.

If Carson stays healthy the Cardinals will be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC West.

hawksfansinceday1 · Sep 30, 2015

There is nothing about our team's offense that drives me more crazy than lack of TDs in the red zone. Hopefully familiarity between Jimmy and Russ changes the efficiency in that area as the season progresses.

seahawks08 · Sep 30, 2015

hawksfansinceday1":15kxrurl said:
There is nothing about our team's offense that drives me more crazy than lack of TDs in the red zone. Hopefully familiarity between Jimmy and Russ changes the efficiency in that area as the season progresses.

Looked at couple of throws prior to halftime with Chicago, where we threw the ball up in the air to Jimmy. I think Jimmy is only part of the puzzle. There are lots more things they need to practice in a redzone when the field shrinks. You can draw up so many plays, but you need to execute it to. I think looking at the Drew brees tape, Jimmy was more successful in 20+ yards touch downs, than shorter fields. I think if the redzone withing 20 25 years is too less a space, we should go for TD's from the 30 35 yards on.

c_hawkbob · Sep 30, 2015

hawkfan68":28j2d0lh said:
This Seahawk redzone offense stuff is peeving me so I took a look the following site -
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

In 2011, the Seahawks average a redzone TDs percentage of 47.83, that ranked 22nd in the NFL. The best team that season averaged 66.13% and was Detroit.

2012 - The Seahawks posted redzone TD% of 53.85, that ranked 16th in the NFL. The best team that season was GB at 68.52%.

2013 - The Seahawks were 53.23% and that ranked 14th in the NFL. The best team was Denver at 72.73%.

2014 - The Seahawks were 51.52%, that was 20th in the NFL. The best team was Oakland at 71.43%.

2015 - So the Seahawks are at 37.50% which is 28th in the NFL. The best team is Arizona at 91.67%.

The best redzone offense team the past 4 1/4 seasons was only a slightly better than average. With all the talent on this team, you'd think that percentage would be improving each year not remaining the same or even regressing. Bringing Graham was something they did to improve this area (one of the reasons). That hasn't helped. His TD yesterday was not a redzone TD. They were 0-2 in that area yesterday. They had a wonderful oppty with the Sherman punt return but came way with only 3 points. They had another oppty at the end of the first half and only came away with 3 points. One redzone conversion in the Rams game and the Seahawks would be sitting at 2-1 not 1-2. That game wouldn't have gone into overtime had they converted just one more redzone oppty. They ended that game at 1-4 in redzone offense.
This is the weakest area of the Seahawk offense and it continues to be a problem.

This one's a valid concern, but I still point to sample size and strength of opposition at this point. Let's let the season play out a bit and see where it goes.

Laloosh · Sep 30, 2015

nanomoz":1oc3jnnl said:
However, the sample size is small. I'm holding out hope for consistent improvement. Wilson still needs to learn to throw the ball up to a massive guy, even when he's covered.

This.

Seahawkfan80 · Sep 30, 2015

seahawks08":3awib1bi said:
hawksfansinceday1":3awib1bi said:

There is nothing about our team's offense that drives me more crazy than lack of TDs in the red zone. Hopefully familiarity between Jimmy and Russ changes the efficiency in that area as the season progresses.

Click to expand...

Looked at couple of throws prior to halftime with Chicago, where we threw the ball up in the air to Jimmy. I think Jimmy is only part of the puzzle. There are lots more things they need to practice in a redzone when the field shrinks. You can draw up so many plays, but you need to execute it to. I think looking at the Drew brees tape, Jimmy was more successful in 20+ yards touch downs, than shorter fields. I think if the redzone within 20 25 years is too less a space, we should go for TD's from the 30 35 yards on.

I thought about this a couple years ago. Spread the field and let the offense work. Even if it is a screen to Lynch or Rawls, this would work.

bandiger · Sep 30, 2015

More worried about the 3nOuts and low first down percentage on 3rd downs. I'm now expecting more failure than success during the first half.

themunn · Sep 30, 2015

Redzone percentage is an overrated stat.

Times in the redzone is far more useful.

There's not much difference between 45% and 55% conversion in the redzone if you only make it twice per game, and if you're making it 5 times a game and converting 40% of the time then you're likely scoring 2 TDs and 3 FGs anyway. One more long TD and you're looking at 30PPG, more than enough to win most games with this defense.

Laloosh · Sep 30, 2015

themunn":8o6you3f said:
Redzone percentage is an overrated stat.

Times in the redzone is far more useful.

There's not much difference between 45% and 55% conversion in the redzone if you only make it twice per game, and if you're making it 5 times a game and converting 40% of the time then you're likely scoring 2 TDs and 3 FGs anyway. One more long TD and you're looking at 30PPG, more than enough to win most games with this defense.

Very good point in that overall results are the most important thing but if you're talking about potential or expectations given personnel as it compares to other teams that are more efficient, it matters.

To your point though, Seattle definitely has been near the top of the list in the "overall" numbers.

http://pfref.com/tiny/utOHH

(can sort by total drives that made it to the red zone, TD%, etc.)

hawkfannj · Sep 30, 2015

gowazzu02":25nmv8hm said:
Wilsons hesitant to throw it unless the guys wide open. The redzone shrinks down the throwing lanes.

There could be something to this. :stirthepot:

jammerhawk · Oct 2, 2015

There also could be something to the reality that Bevell is the OC. An improved use of Matthews and Graham might help

I wonder if RW was given a normal amount of time to scan his reads before being under duress if the % would show some significant improvement.

scrummymustard · Oct 2, 2015

Yes Matthews is tall, but we should have done the same exact play back to Jimmy instead of throwing it to Matthews last game.

Matthews can be a solid player, but throw it up to the proven guy. No one is going to stop that play consistently against Graham, he is just too tall and can box out defenders with his size and strength.

The DB made a nice play on the first one, but jimmy has 5 inches and 70 pounds on the guy. You can pretty much say that about any DB covering him one on one on the goal line. Just toss is up to him back shoulder and give him a chance.

Redzone percentage

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