onanygivensunday
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So I've been giving this subject some thought and came to the conclusion that I should look at the last five years of Seahawk's drafts to understand which 1st or 2nd round Pro Bowl players we may have missed out on by trading down, and calculating the likelihood of missing out on a Pro Bowl-level players compared to the number of spots we ultimately traded down to.
Thirteen spots: In 2014, we traded down twice from #32 to #45, where we drafted Paul Richardson. The downward trades gained us a 4th round pick (#108), a second 4th round pick (#111) and a 7th round pick (#227) but we also gave up a 5th round pick (#146) to make the trades. To date, there have been four Pro Bowl players selected in 2014 between #32 and #45 (Teddy Bridgewater, DeMarcus Lawrence, Joel Bitonio and Derek Carr). Generally speaking, that equates to a 31% likelihood (4/13) of missing out on a Pro Bowl level player.
In 2015, we traded away our 1st round pick (#31) to NO in the Jimmy Graham trade.
Five Spots: In 2016, we traded down from pick #26 to pick #31, where we drafted Germaine Ifedi. The trade down gained us a 3rd round pick from Denver (#94 overall). To date, there has been only one Pro Bowl player (Kenny Clark) selected in 2016 between #26 and #31. That equates to a 20% likelihood (1/5).
Nine Spots: In 2017, we traded down multiple times from pick #26 to pick #35, where we drafted Malik McDowell. The multiple trades gained us a 3rd round pick (#95) and a 7th round pick (#249), a 4th round pick (#111), and a 6th round pick (#187). To date, there have been two Pro Bowl players (Tre’Davious White and T.J. Watt) selected in 2017 between #26 and #35. That equates to a 22.2% likelihood (2/9).
Nine Spots: In 2018, we traded down nine spots again from pick #18 to pick #27, where we drafted Rashad Penny. The trade gained us a 3rd round (#76) and a 6th round (#186) pick but we also gave up a 7th round pick in the trade (#248). To date, there has been only one Pro Bowl player (Leighton Vander Esch) selected in 2018 between #18 and #27, equating to an 11% likelihood (1/9).
After looking at the players and the numbers I am of the opinion that trading down in the early rounds is well worth the draft capital gained. I'm interested in hearing your opinion.
Thirteen spots: In 2014, we traded down twice from #32 to #45, where we drafted Paul Richardson. The downward trades gained us a 4th round pick (#108), a second 4th round pick (#111) and a 7th round pick (#227) but we also gave up a 5th round pick (#146) to make the trades. To date, there have been four Pro Bowl players selected in 2014 between #32 and #45 (Teddy Bridgewater, DeMarcus Lawrence, Joel Bitonio and Derek Carr). Generally speaking, that equates to a 31% likelihood (4/13) of missing out on a Pro Bowl level player.
In 2015, we traded away our 1st round pick (#31) to NO in the Jimmy Graham trade.
Five Spots: In 2016, we traded down from pick #26 to pick #31, where we drafted Germaine Ifedi. The trade down gained us a 3rd round pick from Denver (#94 overall). To date, there has been only one Pro Bowl player (Kenny Clark) selected in 2016 between #26 and #31. That equates to a 20% likelihood (1/5).
Nine Spots: In 2017, we traded down multiple times from pick #26 to pick #35, where we drafted Malik McDowell. The multiple trades gained us a 3rd round pick (#95) and a 7th round pick (#249), a 4th round pick (#111), and a 6th round pick (#187). To date, there have been two Pro Bowl players (Tre’Davious White and T.J. Watt) selected in 2017 between #26 and #35. That equates to a 22.2% likelihood (2/9).
Nine Spots: In 2018, we traded down nine spots again from pick #18 to pick #27, where we drafted Rashad Penny. The trade gained us a 3rd round (#76) and a 6th round (#186) pick but we also gave up a 7th round pick in the trade (#248). To date, there has been only one Pro Bowl player (Leighton Vander Esch) selected in 2018 between #18 and #27, equating to an 11% likelihood (1/9).
After looking at the players and the numbers I am of the opinion that trading down in the early rounds is well worth the draft capital gained. I'm interested in hearing your opinion.